A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Any concern that Casas at 6-25, 250 does not hit for power? And he plays 1B. They keep talking that it will come. When?

 

His stock has been in a steady decline on BTV. I hope he's not our next Duran.

[moonslav59]

You and I are on the same or similar wavelengths. You didn't mention DH and that is where we need to replace thee aging JDM. We need someone who makes contact and has power. Certainly guys like Dalbec and Cordero have power but they both have real issues making contact. I think we will have to bring in a DH, even if it is just for 2 years.

 

DH would be, whoever doesn't play 1B or maybe the 4th OF'er who is the worst fielder, assuming we add a couple OF'ers)- maybe Pham, Dugo or Refsnyder? Arroyo? EValdez? A platoon? None of these guys wow me as a DH, but we will likely go light at 1-2 slots. If we try to spread the winter spending budget out ove rall the open slots, we will likely get what we pay for- mediocrity or slightly better.

 

I don't think we sign a DH only type, but instead we will add 2 OF'ers, a 2B/SS (wherever Story does not play) and maybe 1B or C, but with Casas being ML ready, I doubt it's a 1B/DH type.

Edited August 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

Any concern that Casas at 6-25, 250 does not hit for power? And he plays 1B. They keep talking that it will come. When?

 

He has a .380 OBP in Worcester after having a .395 OBP in Portland and he’s only 22. I’m not worried yet.

[moonslav59]

He has a .380 OBP in Worcester after having a .395 OBP in Portland and he’s only 22. I’m not worried yet.

 

He deserves a chance, of course.

 

I'm hopeful he doesn't end up like our last 1Bman who came up with a .362 career minor league OBP, but is at .318, now (.281 in 2022.)

[harmony]

He has a .380 OBP in Worcester after having a .395 OBP in Portland and he’s only 22. I’m not worried yet.

The comparative minor league stats of Evan White, the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college, and Triston Casas, the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school:

 

EW 256 G, 1106 PA, .289/.357/.472/.829

TC 279 G, 1188 PA, .267/.373/.482/.854

 

Of course, the first basemen played in different minor league environments. White posted a wRC+, is adjusted for environment, of 132 in 400 plate appearances as a 23-year-old at Double A while Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 329 plate appearances as a 21-year-old at Double A.

 

Skipping Triple A, White made his MLB debut at 24 years, 89 days, while Casas is now at 22 years, 225 days.

 

Casas should be able to exceed the wRC+ of 52 that White has posted in 306 MLB plate appearances but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

Edited August 28, 2022 by harmony

[Nick]

Will Devers be at risk for injuries as he gets older with his violent swing approach at the plate?

[moonslav59]

Will Devers be at risk for injuries as he gets older with his violent swing approach at the plate?

 

No.

[Nick]

No.

 

Well, my back hurts every time he swings.

[oldtimer]

Will Devers be at risk for injuries as he gets older with his violent swing approach at the plate?

 

His tendency to keep a chaw of tobacco in his mouth is more worrisome for his longer term health.

[Nick]

Pivetta's ERA is now up to 4.40. It just feels like our talent is mediocre.

 

Hill is hit and miss. You never know what you're going to get. He can be inning eater. Cheap option as a #5 starter.

 

Wacha probably is our top pitcher when healthy. He's a free agent.

 

Eovaldi is back to breaking down. Who knows what bone Chris will break next.

 

We don't have a season without legit starting pitchers in 2023.

 

We need a bona fide top of the rotation guy.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Nick

[cp176]

I hope Casas becomes the player we all have been hearing and talking about and not our next Lars Anderson.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta's ERA is now up to 4.40. It just feels like our talent is mediocre.

 

Hill is hit and miss. You never know what you're going to get. He can be inning eater. Cheap option as a #5 starter.

 

Wacha probably is our top pitcher when healthy. He's a free agent.

 

Eovaldi is back to breaking down. Who knows what bone Chris will break next.

 

We don't have a season without legit starting pitchers in 2023.

 

We need a bona fide top of the rotation guy.

 

Too many questions, and I agree. Go large at SPer!

 

We probably need 2 solid starters not one!

[notin]

Well, my back hurts every time he swings.

 

And that’s why we kept you out of the lineup today…

[Nick]

And that’s why we kept you out of the lineup today…

 

Me and Story. I'm ready to go. I guess he needs another day off. Do the players request for 'scheduled' day off? Do the players get the schedule on Sunday nights for next week so they can go play golf?

[Nick]

Not sure why but I'm in a bad mood.

 

HR-RBI PA

11-36 300

11-54 449

10-49 426

08-29 228

 

One guy makes $22M, another $20M, other two earn minimum wage in MLB.

 

Do they really have a bargaining chip to play?

[jad]

His tendency to keep a chaw of tobacco in his mouth is more worrisome for his longer term health.

 

It's not tobacco, which is not allowed in MLB. I read somewhere what it was--can't recall. Some weird mixture of bubble gum and sunflower seeds.

[oldtimer]

It's not tobacco, which is not allowed in MLB. I read somewhere what it was--can't recall. Some weird mixture of bubble gum and sunflower seeds.

 

For a long time this year it looked like tobacco juice he was spitting out. I did notice lately it looked more like chewing gum. People who chew tobacco often wind up with some form of mouth cancer and it was a prevalent habit among BB players in the past. By the way, Devers has looked like a different player at the plate since just after the AS game. I wonder if it is due to him overswinging. He always swung hard but seems to have even a more violent all out approach of late.

[jad]

For a long time this year it looked like tobacco juice he was spitting out. I did notice lately it looked more like chewing gum. People who chew tobacco often wind up with some form of mouth cancer and it was a prevalent habit among BB players in the past. By the way, Devers has looked like a different player at the plate since just after the AS game. I wonder if it is due to him overswinging. He always swung hard but seems to have even a more violent all out approach of late.

 

I'm guessing it is that back injury and (wasn't it a hammy?) from a few weeks back.

[oldtimer]

I'm guessing it is that back injury and (wasn't it a hammy?) from a few weeks back.

 

I looked up smokeless tobacco use rules in the ML's. It turns out to have been banned in the minors and also banned for use in 16 of the ML parks with perhaps more added recently. ML new players are not allowed to use chewing tobacco but players in the league were grandfathered in. As time goes by the use rate will drop to zero but at the time of the attached article, it still was at 37% down from close to 50% a while back.

 

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/is-chewing-tobacco-banned-in-mlb-bm15/

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure why but I'm in a bad mood.

 

HR-RBI PA

11-36 300

11-54 449

10-49 426

08-29 228

 

One guy makes $22M, another $20M, other two earn minimum wage in MLB.

 

Do they really have a bargaining chip to play?

 

Devers only has 65 RBI, for that matter. If we're going by RBI, he shouldn't get a big contract either.

[moonslav59]

Devers only has 65 RBI, for that matter. If we're going by RBI, he shouldn't get a big contract either.

 

Lack of hits, when it counts, has really hurt this team.

 

Lack of HRs, especially with men on base adds to the hurt.

 

It's hard to predict this type of thing, but it seems to be contagious.

 

Just as clutch is not a skill or a sustainable thing, neither is this.

 

Better luck, next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Lack of hits, when it counts, has really hurt this team.

 

Lack of HRs, especially with men on base adds to the hurt.

 

It's hard to predict this type of thing, but it seems to be contagious.

 

Just as clutch is not a skill or a sustainable thing, neither is this.

 

Better luck, next year.

 

All true, and yet in the final analysis it's mostly the starting pitching that has sunk us. Factor in injuries and lack of depth as you please.

 

When Nick Pivetta leads us in innings pitched by nearly 50 over the second place guy, that's not a good sign.

[moonslav59]

All true, and yet in the final analysis it's mostly the starting pitching that has sunk us. Factor in injuries and lack of depth as you please.

 

When Nick Pivetta leads us in innings pitched by nearly 50 over the second place guy, that's not a good sign.

 

The injuries have not been the only reason for our staff's downfall, but I do think it was a major factor. They all seemed to happen at once, which forced us to go way down the depth chart to places few teams ever have to go. The injuries also forced us (or led us) to use guys like Houck and Whitlock in various roles- jerking them to and fro.

 

The season still has over a month to go, and we've already used 20 pitchers for 15 or more IP! 15 pitchers have 30+ IP.

 

Our best pitchers weren't the ones who had the most IP. Here's a look at out best ERA pitchers with their rank in IP on the team.

 

4. Wacha 2.53

6. Whitlock 2.90

8. Houck 3.15

10. Schreiber 2.24

 

Some of our worst:

5. Crawford 5.30

7. Winckowski 5.83

9. Davis 5.33 (before today)

12. Brasier 6.47

 

[vegasbob]

So, I see that Traistan Casas will make it to the show Sunday, Sept 4. Assuming that's accurate let's applaud and see how our potential 1B solution can handle it. Dalbec's jock will be itching in any case.

[Old Red]

So, I see that Traistan Casas will make it to the show Sunday, Sept 4. Assuming that's accurate let's applaud and see how our potential 1B solution can handle it. Dalbec's jock will be itching in any case.

 

Bobby D is going to Worcester.

[moonslav59]

So, I see that Traistan Casas will make it to the show Sunday, Sept 4. Assuming that's accurate let's applaud and see how our potential 1B solution can handle it. Dalbec's jock will be itching in any case.

 

Long awaited.

 

I hope this kid is all we hope he can be!

[moonslav59]

Some Sox are rising in the OPS rankins:

 

.889 Devers

.879 Refsnyder (134 PAs)

.846 Bogey

.782 JaDavis (27)

.770 JD

.759 Vaz

.746 Arroyo

.732 Story

.731 Wong (13)

.731 Dugo

.715 Hosmer (.727 SDP/.611 BOS)

.714 Cordero

.713 Pham (.694 CIN/.789 BOS)

.648 Duran

.646 Kike

.644 Dalbec

.620 McGuire (was .546 w CWS/.849 since trade)

.578 JBJ

.566 Plawecki

.427 Downs (41)

.322 Sanchez (44)

.000 Shaw (19)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Long awaited.

 

I hope this kid is all we hope he can be!

 

For his first month in the Show, we should just be lucky to finally see a first baseman who combines capable fielding with an actual knowledge of the strike zone.

[moonslav59]

For his first month in the Show, we should just be lucky to finally see a first baseman who combines capable fielding with an actual knowledge of the strike zone.

 

Let's hope his skillset translates to the bigs.

 

Bobby D had a great OBP on the farm ,too.

 

There is such a long list of failed Sox 1Bmen from the farm.

[oldtimer]

Long awaited.

 

I hope this kid is all we hope he can be!

 

Now we need to be patient with him. He has a good defensive reputation to go with a good hit tool in the minors. Good time to see what he can do.