A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Elktonnick]

My friends own EasySpeak Spirits in Milford.

 

Ever been?

No. But I know Milford well. It is going through a renaissance.

[JDavis76]

No. But I know Milford well. It is going through a renaissance.

 

Check it out, it's a nice spot.

 

https://www.easyspeakspirits.com/

 

Send me a message if/when you plan on going.

[Elktonnick]

Check it out, it's a nice spot.

 

https://www.easyspeakspirits.com/

 

Send me a message if/when you plan on going.

Will do

[dgalehouse]

Bello easily looks like the best young arm the Sox have displayed this season. Maybe that's not saying much , but he should be a good one.

[moonslav59]

Bello easily looks like the best young arm the Sox have displayed this season. Maybe that's not saying much , but he should be a good one.

 

Another DD farm addition.

 

He did much better than many of us gave him credit for doing with the farm.

[Hugh2]

Another DD farm addition.

 

He did much better than many of us gave him credit for doing with the farm.

 

I wonder how much DD had his hands in international guys, most GM's probably listen to their guys. I'd give a lot of credit to Eddie Romero Jr. who has been pivotal in bringing in a TON of talent to this organization,

[mvp 78]

If they thought Casas could help this team win this year, he should be called up right now. Maybe you don't do it when you've given up.

 

Win what? 4th place?

[mvp 78]

I wonder how much DD had his hands in international guys, most GM's probably listen to their guys. I'd give a lot of credit to Eddie Romero Jr. who has been pivotal in bringing in a TON of talent to this organization,

 

Zero input.

[moonslav59]

I wonder how much DD had his hands in international guys, most GM's probably listen to their guys. I'd give a lot of credit to Eddie Romero Jr. who has been pivotal in bringing in a TON of talent to this organization,

 

Well, you put or keep the right guys in charge, and you get credit. Lord knows, he'd get the blame, if we swung and missed too often.

[dgalehouse]

Latin America is a hotbed of baseball. There are 14 and 15 year olds down there now who will the hot prospects very soon. There is no end in sight for that pipeline.

[Elktonnick]

Latin America is a hotbed of baseball. There are 14 and 15 year olds down there now who will the hot prospects very soon. There is no end in sight for that pipeline.

I hate to be a nit picker but the vast majority of Latin America does not give two cents about baseball. Soccer is nbr one in virtually all the countries on the South American continent. I lived in El Salvador, Suriname and Argentina. Never saw anyone play Baseball in any of those countries. The baseball playing countries all are Caribbean countries.

[Old Red]

If they thought Casas could help this team win this year, he should be called up right now. Maybe you don't do it when you've given up.

 

It’s not hurting Casas to stay down a little longer. It’s not like he tearing the league apart down in Worcester. He missed a lot of at bats, because of injury down there.

[dgalehouse]

I hate to be a nit picker but the vast majority of Latin America does not give two cents about baseball. Soccer is nbr one in virtually all the countries on the South American continent. I lived in El Salvador, Suriname and Argentina. Never saw anyone play Baseball in any of those countries. The baseball playing countries all are Caribbean countries.

 

Okay. The Caribbean countries are a hotbed of baseball. The point is still the same.

[Elktonnick]

Okay. The Caribbean countries are a hotbed of baseball. The point is still the same.

Some Caribbean Countries are actually more interested in cricket than baseball.

[dgalehouse]

Some Caribbean Countries are actually more interested in cricket than baseball.

 

Okay. The Caribbean countries are hotbeds of baseball. Except for the ones where Cricket is number one.

[Elktonnick]

Okay. The Caribbean countries are hotbeds of baseball. Except for the ones where Cricket is number one.

 

There are some Caribbean countries that aren't interested in either cricket or baseball:}:}

[dgalehouse]

There are some Caribbean countries that aren't interested in either cricket or baseball:}:}

 

Okay . But Who's on first?

[Elktonnick]

Okay . But Who's on first?

 

I don" know?.............Third Base!

[moonslav59]

If they thought Casas could help this team win this year, he should be called up right now. Maybe you don't do it when you've given up.

 

Call him up after the AAA season is over, and the September MLB rosters can expand.

[Old Red]

Call him up after the AAA season is over, and the September MLB rosters can expand.

 

You do realize the AAA season ends on Sept 28, so not much time left.

[harmony]

On a positive note: so far the Red Sox have outperformed their Pythagorean record by two wins:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml

[moonslav59]

On a positive note: so far the Red Sox have outperformed their Pythagorean record by two wins:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml

 

Cora for Mayor!

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OPS+ (Rank in PAs in 2022)

 

153 McGuire (17)

150 Devers (3)

144 Refsnyder (14)

127 Bogey (1)

122 Ja Davis (20)

115 JD Martinez (4)

111 Arroyo (11)

110 Vazquez (7)

109 Pham (15)

 

100 Verdugo (2)

 

97 Story (5)

92 Cordero (10)

83 Duran (12)

77 Dalbec (6)

73 Hosmer (16)

69 Kike (9)

61 JBJ (8)

47 Plawecki (13)

32 Wong (23)

18 Downs (19)

-6 Sanchez (18)

 

OPS Against

.535 Familia

.547 Scheiber

.578 Wacha

.584 Sale

.589 Valdez

.594 Feliz

.595 Whitlock

 

.608 Houck

.634 Sawamura

,665 Danish

.670 Strahm

.697 Barnes

 

.710 Pivetta

.742 Davis

.744 Diekmna

.774 Eovaldi

.783 Crawford

.786 Hill

 

.810 Brasier

.832 Robles

.859 Winckowski

 

.930 Ort

.955 Bello

 

1.296 Seabold

1.376 DHern

 

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo continues his somewhat valiant quest to get his 2022 numbers into shape.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo continues his somewhat valiant quest to get his 2022 numbers into shape.

 

Indeed. I think he was at a negative WAR at some points of the season.

 

Being a major part of the Betts deal has put an pretty big strain on fan expectations for him.

 

bWAR (Total: 4.8)

2.1 in 60 game 2020 season

2.2 in 2021

0.5 so far, in 2022

 

fWAR (Total 5.1)

1.8

2.0

1.3

 

I know it's not fair comparing him to Betts, and I'm not trying to say a 1 War for 8 seasons equals one 8 WAR season from guy like Betts, but one should factor in 5 years of team control vs one as having some added value, especially if the 5 year guy is putting up seasons over 1 WAR.

 

FYI

 

Betts

3.6 bWAR & 2.9 fWAR in 2020

[moonslav59]

Few things have gone well for the Sox, this year, but here are a few:

 

1. We got to see some of our ML ready prospects with mixed results and some unflattering results, as well, but knowing a little more about them may help us better plan for the future.

 

2. Waiver Wire and minor league FA pick-ups, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and to some extent Danish have shown that Bloom is capable of finding a few "gems in the rough" among the few that have not done so well- in terms of low cost/limited budget acquisitions.

 

3. Devers has stepped up a notch from an already lofty position. His defense has improved and has been more consistent than ever. We've even seen some very nice, athletic plays from him.

 

4. Some of the new guys- namely Pham and McGuire- look like they may stick around.

 

5. Wacha is having a very good season.

 

6. Houck and Whitlock seemed to find their roles on the team. Let's hope Houck returns, soon.

 

7. The farm has seen some highly regarded prospects struggle, but for the most part, it's been an encouraging season with a lot of solid players stepping up their game and their stock value.

 

8. The budget seems poised for a significant infusion of new talent, and there are a lot of slots to fill and a few big shoes to fill. I'm hopeful, we choose wisely, this winter.

[oldtimer]

Few things have gone well for the Sox, this year, but here are a few:

 

1. We got to see some of our ML ready prospects with mixed results and some unflattering results, as well, but knowing a little more about them may help us better plan for the future.

 

2. Waiver Wire and minor league FA pick-ups, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and to some extent Danish have shown that Bloom is capable of finding a few "gems in the rough" among the few that have not done so well- in terms of low cost/limited budget acquisitions.

 

3. Devers has stepped up a notch from an already lofty position. His defense has improved and has been more consistent than ever. We've even seen some very nice, athletic plays from him.

 

4. Some of the new guys- namely Pham and McGuire- look like they may stick around.

 

5. Wacha is having a very good season.

 

6. Houck and Whitlock seemed to find their roles on the team. Let's hope Houck returns, soon.

 

7. The farm has seen some highly regarded prospects struggle, but for the most part, it's been an encouraging season with a lot of solid players stepping up their game and their stock value.

 

8. The budget seems poised for a significant infusion of new talent, and there are a lot of slots to fill and a few big shoes to fill. I'm hopeful, we choose wisely, this winter.

 

It's good to look for some of the positives in this down season. Perhaps one of the most important is to get a look at some of the prospects so we have a better idea of prioritizing the off season moves. Still I have to wonder with acquisitions such as Familia if we are stuck in the dumpster diving routine. That approach hasn't worked well to date.

 

As far as field players we would have a decent start with Devers, Bogaerts, Story, Arroyo, Verdugo, Hernandez and perhaps McGuire. We could use help at 1st. Hosmer is a good inexpensive fielder and perhaps we should look at Casas soon. We could get by with Pham but a top quality outfielder would be a plus and we will need a high performing DH.

 

Pitching should be a priority. We do have a lot of prospects to draw on but Paxton was a bad idea and Sale is not reliable. Our need is for at least one quality starter as Nate will probably be gone along with Hill. We are also in need of at least one setup man/closer type BP arm. The money should be there, will Bloom use it wisely?

 

 

[moonslav59]

It's good to look for some of the positives in this down season. Perhaps one of the most important is to get a look at some of the prospects so we have a better idea of prioritizing the off season moves. Still I have to wonder with acquisitions such as Familia if we are stuck in the dumpster diving routine. That approach hasn't worked well to date.

 

As far as field players we would have a decent start with Devers, Bogaerts, Story, Arroyo, Verdugo, Hernandez and perhaps McGuire. We could use help at 1st. Hosmer is a good inexpensive fielder and perhaps we should look at Casas soon. We could get by with Pham but a top quality outfielder would be a plus and we will need a high performing DH.

 

Pitching should be a priority. We do have a lot of prospects to draw on but Paxton was a bad idea and Sale is not reliable. Our need is for at least one quality starter as Nate will probably be gone along with Hill. We are also in need of at least one setup man/closer type BP arm. The money should be there, will Bloom use it wisely?

 

I'm not defending Bloom's deadline choices. I think he should have sold off all expiring assets, but I do think some of the moves set up some positions to either add depth or to possibly upgrading a few enough to let them rise, so we can spend more on upgrading other positions.

 

Catcher: Maybe they view McGuire like Stallings and are okay with sacrificing catcher offense to better our defense and staff-handling at this position.

McGuire, Wong or RHern (Cottam/Hickey down the line)

 

1B: Adding Hosmer at the minimum salary could end up being a very nice addition, assuming he can get over .700. Now, a .700 hitting 1Bman is a net negative, comparatively, but if he allows us to greatly upgrade CF, RF, SS or Pitching, then maybe it's a net plus.

Hosmer, Dalbec, Casas, Cordero (Oh NO!) (Kavadas/Jordan down the line)

 

LF/RF: Adding Pham may allow us to move Dugo to RF. I'm not a fan of that defensive alignment, but if we can spend more on CF (Nimmo) or sign Nimmo and Kike, then our OF looks much better with Dugo/Phan in LF, Kike in CF and Nimmo/Refsnyder in RF. (We won't carry 5 OF'ers, so maybe one gets traded.) I hate to count Duran as OF depth, but he may end up being okay in a platoon LF role ONLY.

 

2B/DH: Enmanuel Valdez looks like a longshot to win or play a major role at 2B or DH, but it doesn't hurt to add some depth or competition where needed.

 

Pitching: We didn't really add any pitching at the deadline, but we did get some looks at some young pitchers. Some have not looked too promising, but a few with bad numbers have actually shown some signs of life, such as Bello and Crawford. Winckowski looked okay for a while, but then dropped off. Maybe he needs to adjust to the adjustments teams made on him- same with Seabold.

 

The addition of Schreiber to the staff looks like a godsend. I hope he can continue doing well, next year, and I don't see why not. This doesn't look like a fluke. He has nasty stuff and his peripheral data looks like he's the real deal, although the sample size is kind of small.

 

We've also seen some encouraging play from Arroyo, although I certainly would not pencil him in at 2B with Story at SS, next season, but I feel better having him as depth or a utility player. Refsnyder has also seemingly earned a depth role, next year.

 

Each by themselves don't seem super encouraging, but all together, they improve our outlook and 40 man roster depth. On the flip side, one could argue these moves further solidify our mediocrity, and adding so-so players is not a step forward, but hopefully some of these guys can fill some key slots or depth slots, which will allow us to go bigger and better at as many positions as we can.

 

I'll be thrilled, if Henry opens his wallet enough to fill all our open slots with high or higher quality players than we've had, recently, but my gut says, there won't be enough for every need area.

 

CF ______ (We have to fill here)

2B/SS ______ & Story (Arroyo/EValdez)

C ______ (McGuire/Wong/RHern)

1B ______ (Hosmer/Casas/Dalbec)

RF _______ (Dugo/Refsnyder, assuming Pham in LF)

SP _______ (We need at least 1 solid SP) Pivetta, Sale/Paxton, Crawford. Bello, Mata/Wink/Seabold/Murphy/Walter

RP________ (Depends where Houck & Whitlock are slotted and how well Barnes and Schreiber finish the season. Taylor may return or a prospect helps?)

 

[oldtimer]

I'm not defending Bloom's deadline choices. I think he should have sold off all expiring assets, but I do think some of the moves set up some positions to either add depth or to possibly upgrading a few enough to let them rise, so we can spend more on upgrading other positions.

 

Catcher: Maybe they view McGuire like Stallings and are okay with sacrificing catcher offense to better our defense and staff-handling at this position.

McGuire, Wong or RHern (Cottam/Hickey down the line)

 

1B: Adding Hosmer at the minimum salary could end up being a very nice addition, assuming he can get over .700. Now, a .700 hitting 1Bman is a net negative, comparatively, but if he allows us to greatly upgrade CF, RF, SS or Pitching, then maybe it's a net plus.

Hosmer, Dalbec, Casas, Cordero (Oh NO!) (Kavadas/Jordan down the line)

 

LF/RF: Adding Pham may allow us to move Dugo to RF. I'm not a fan of that defensive alignment, but if we can spend more on CF (Nimmo) or sign Nimmo and Kike, then our OF looks much better with Dugo/Phan in LF, Kike in CF and Nimmo/Refsnyder in RF. (We won't carry 5 OF'ers, so maybe one gets traded.) I hate to count Duran as OF depth, but he may end up being okay in a platoon LF role ONLY.

 

2B/DH: Enmanuel Valdez looks like a longshot to win or play a major role at 2B or DH, but it doesn't hurt to add some depth or competition where needed.

 

Pitching: We didn't really add any pitching at the deadline, but we did get some looks at some young pitchers. Some have not looked too promising, but a few with bad numbers have actually shown some signs of life, such as Bello and Crawford. Winckowski looked okay for a while, but then dropped off. Maybe he needs to adjust to the adjustments teams made on him- same with Seabold.

 

The addition of Schreiber to the staff looks like a godsend. I hope he can continue doing well, next year, and I don't see why not. This doesn't look like a fluke. He has nasty stuff and his peripheral data looks like he's the real deal, although the sample size is kind of small.

 

We've also seen some encouraging play from Arroyo, although I certainly would not pencil him in at 2B with Story at SS, next season, but I feel better having him as depth or a utility player. Refsnyder has also seemingly earned a depth role, next year.

 

Each by themselves don't seem super encouraging, but all together, they improve our outlook and 40 man roster depth. On the flip side, one could argue these moves further solidify our mediocrity, and adding so-so players is not a step forward, but hopefully some of these guys can fill some key slots or depth slots, which will allow us to go bigger and better at as many positions as we can.

 

I'll be thrilled, if Henry opens his wallet enough to fill all our open slots with high or higher quality players than we've had, recently, but my gut says, there won't be enough for every need area.

 

CF ______ (We have to fill here)

2B/SS ______ & Story (Arroyo/EValdez)

C ______ (McGuire/Wong/RHern)

1B ______ (Hosmer/Casas/Dalbec)

RF _______ (Dugo/Refsnyder, assuming Pham in LF)

SP _______ (We need at least 1 solid SP) Pivetta, Sale/Paxton, Crawford. Bello, Mata/Wink/Seabold/Murphy/Walter

RP________ (Depends where Houck & Whitlock are slotted and how well Barnes and Schreiber finish the season. Taylor may return or a prospect helps?)

 

You and I are on the same or similar wavelengths. You didn't mention DH and that is where we need to replace thee aging JDM. We need someone who makes contact and has power. Certainly guys like Dalbec and Cordero have power but they both have real issues making contact. I think we will have to bring in a DH, even if it is just for 2 years.

[Nick]

Any concern that Casas at 6-25, 250 does not hit for power? And he plays 1B. They keep talking that it will come. When?