The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Sale may opt out of contract after 2022 season

 

This has not been discussed much....so in theory Sox can lose

 

$25M Sale (opt out)

$22M JD (FA)

$20M Xander (opt out)

$17M Eovaldi (FA)

$10M Paxton

$7.5M Kike (FA)

$7.0M Vaz (FA)

$7.0M Wacha (FA)

$5.0M Hill (FA)

 

That's $120M plus $16M for Price, total of $136M.

 

2022 off season will be interesting.

[Nick]

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere.

 

The Phillies, along with the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros, finished with a tax payroll within $4 million of last season’s $210 million collective bargaining tax threshold. According to information sent to clubs from the commissioner’s office and obtained by the Associated Press, the Phillies’ final CBT number for 2021 was $209.4 million. If you do the math, the Phillies were just $600,000 shy of going over the luxury tax.

 

Philadelphia finished third in MLB in luxury tax payroll behind the Padres ($216.5) and Dodgers ($285.6 million). The Dodgers paid a $32.65 million luxury tax bill while the Padres were charged $1.29 million

[mvp 78]

Sale may opt out of contract after 2022 season

 

This has not been discussed much....so in theory Sox can lose

 

$25M Sale (opt out)

$22M JD (FA)

$20M Xander (opt out)

$17M Eovaldi (FA)

$10M Paxton

$7.5M Kike (FA)

$7.0M Vaz (FA)

$7.0M Wacha (FA)

$5.0M Hill (FA)

 

That's $120M plus $16M for Price, total of $136M.

 

2022 off season will be interesting.

 

At this point, Sale opting out would be a good thing. I'm not sure he's worth the contract going forward.

[Hugh2]

Sale may opt out of contract after 2022 season

 

This has not been discussed much....so in theory Sox can lose

 

$25M Sale (opt out)

$22M JD (FA)

$20M Xander (opt out)

$17M Eovaldi (FA)

$10M Paxton

$7.5M Kike (FA)

$7.0M Vaz (FA)

$7.0M Wacha (FA)

$5.0M Hill (FA)

 

That's $120M plus $16M for Price, total of $136M.

 

2022 off season will be interesting.

 

Who are you going to spend it on? I'm sure you can pick up a pitcher but even after all the signings, there's STILL more talent left in this years free agent class on the position side than next year. I think you look to fill those holes now.

[mvp 78]

Would we feel better about this team if JBJ is the fulltime CF, Kiké is fulltime 2B, Verdugo is LF and Seiya Suzuki is RF?

[notin]

Would we feel better about this team if JBJ is the fulltime CF, Kiké is fulltime 2B, Verdugo is LF and Seiya Suzuki is RF?

 

 

It would make my liver quiver, my stomach flummox, and my gall bladder all gladder.

 

So, I think I’d be ok with it…

[mvp 78]

Sign Suzuki. Trade some prospects for A's pitchers. Call it a day.

[moonslav59]

Sign Suzuki. Trade some prospects for A's pitchers. Call it a day.

 

Sounds like a good plan.

[harmony]

Sounds like a good plan.

Does that plan include beefing up the Red Sox bullpen? Or is the bullpen set?

[Hugh2]

Would we feel better about this team if JBJ is the fulltime CF, Kiké is fulltime 2B, Verdugo is LF and Seiya Suzuki is RF?

 

I would feel better, but I'd feel even GREATER if they also kept Kike in CF, upgraded 2B, and had JBJ be your full time 4th outfielder.

[Old Red]

I would feel better, but I'd feel even GREATER if they also kept Kike in CF, upgraded 2B, and had JBJ be your full time 4th outfielder.

 

JBJ is not going to be a 4th outfielder for the money he’s making.

[moonslav59]

Does that plan include beefing up the Red Sox bullpen? Or is the bullpen set?

 

If we get a starter from the A’s, then Hill or Wacha move to the pen with Houck, Whitlock, Barnes and others. That might hold us to the deadline.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is not going to be a 4th outfielder for the money he’s making.

 

Even platooning him might not happen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JBJ is not going to be a 4th outfielder for the money he’s making.

 

He'll get a chance for redemption, but if he's cooked he'll ride the pine, just like in Milwaukee.

[Bellhorn04]

He'll get a chance for redemption, but if he's cooked he'll ride the pine, just like in Milwaukee.

 

I know one thing, JBJ will be starting off next season due. Because he went homerless in his last 161 PA's in 2021. Yikes!

[moonslav59]

He'll get a chance for redemption, but if he's cooked he'll ride the pine, just like in Milwaukee.

 

He did finish 6th in PAs on the Brewers and was lass than 50 PAs from 4th.

 

He hit .459 in his last 333 PAs- that’s OPS and more PAs than Marwin got all year.

Edited December 31, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

He did finish 6th in PAs on the Brewers and was lass than 50 PAs from 4th.

 

Probably due more to the money invested than deserving to get them, I'm afraid.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He did finish 6th in PAs on the Brewers and was lass than 50 PAs from 4th.

 

Right, but JBJ's plate appearances were cut in half the last two months, and in the playoffs he had zero.

[moonslav59]

Right, but JBJ's plate appearances were cut in half the last two months, and in the playoffs he had zero.

 

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

[oldtimer]

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

 

So why on earth did we pick up JBJ's contract? Don't tell me the prospects were worth the plunge, I don't buy it.

[notin]

So why on earth did we pick up JBJ's contract? Don't tell me the prospects were worth the plunge, I don't buy it.

 

 

The Sox essentially traded a 2-2.5 fWAR outfielder likely to cost $19mill over the next 2 seasons for a 2-2.5 fWAR outfielder who will cost about $24million coming off a down year plus two prospects…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

 

Very punny. My resolution is to make more jokes... but not as a hoax.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

 

Very punny! My resolution is to make more jokes (but not as a hoax)...

[Kimmi]

So why on earth did we pick up JBJ's contract? Don't tell me the prospects were worth the plunge, I don't buy it.

 

Think of it as buying prospects. The prospects were worth the plunge, not to mention the improved defense that JBJ will provide.

[oldtimer]

Think of it as buying prospects. The prospects were worth the plunge, not to mention the improved defense that JBJ will provide.

 

It will only be improved defense if he can hit enough to stay on the field, which I doubt.

[notin]

It will only be improved defense if he can hit enough to stay on the field, which I doubt.

 

I’m guessing at some point, they get a platoon for him and limit him to right handed pitching. (Going with Pham here.)

 

Really though, he’d never been a great hitter, but he’s also never been as bad as he was in 2021, and he was in a new league facing a lot of new pitchers. I don’t expect him to hit much, but I do expect him to hit better…

[moonslav59]

I’m guessing at some point, they get a platoon for him and limit him to right handed pitching. (Going with Pham here.)

 

Really though, he’d never been a great hitter, but he’s also never been as bad as he was in 2021, and he was in a new league facing a lot of new pitchers. I don’t expect him to hit much, but I do expect him to hit better…

 

How much better does he have to hit to just get to a zero WAR?

 

As he ages, does his chances get smaller?

 

Does his defense decline some, as well?

 

I'm hoping he can get over .650 or .675 and see a chance he can get over .700 and .750, but I think those may be long odds.

[notin]

How much better does he have to hit to just get to a zero WAR?

 

As he ages, does his chances get smaller?

 

Does his defense decline some, as well?

 

I'm hoping he can get over .650 or .675 and see a chance he can get over .700 and .750, but I think those may be long odds.

 

Considering he was worth 1.5 fWAR in the abbreviated 2020 season (and ranked 21st among outfielders in MLB that year), he’s probably a bit farther from dead than 2021 suggests…

[Bellhorn04]

How much better does he have to hit to just get to a zero WAR?

 

As he ages, does his chances get smaller?

 

Does his defense decline some, as well?

 

I'm hoping he can get over .650 or .675 and see a chance he can get over .700 and .750, but I think those may be long odds.

 

In 2020, of course, he had a 1.5 fWAR in 55 games, which projects to about a 4 fWAR in 150 games.

 

And no, I don't expect a 4 fWAR from him in 2022. I'd take the 1.5 and run, though.

[moonslav59]

We've all seen how streaky JBJ has been over his career, and I've defended that streakiness by pointing out consistent stellar defense and the fcat that his hot streaks have often been red to white hot and carried the team for stretches that sometimes lasted a month or two, but I don't think anyone truly believes that had the 2020 season been 162 games, JBJ would have had similar numbers over the 100+ games added.

 

It's not that it shouldn't count, and that stretch does add some hope that he is not in a severe decline mode, but he does turn 32 in April.

 

His fWAR does not show a long steady decline like bWAR does.

2.0 in 2015 in just 74 games

5.8 in 2016 (156 gms)

3.4 in 2017 (133)

2.5 in 2018 (144)

2.0 in 2019 (147)

2.0 in 2020 (55 games)

-0.7 in 2021 (134)

 

One could argue 2020 was more of an outlier than 2021, if you projected a 5.5 WAR and considered the natural decline most players have as they age past 29 or 30.

 

Here's another look at the streaky JBJ:

 

OPS

2015:

.426 first 71 PAs

1.147 middle 129 PAs

.560 last 55

2016

,679 first 82

1.245 middle 121

.753 last 433

2017

.670 first 130

1.028 middle 146

.589 last 265

2018

.563 first 251

.851 last 234

2019

.443 first 150

.844 last 417

2020

.646 first 109

.991 last 108

2021

.365 first 28

.555 middle 346

.268 last 73

 

Thinking hopefully, one could look at the last 417 PAs of 2019 and all of 2020 and see over 600 PAs of nice hitting, and 2021 would look like a blip.

 

Thinking negatively, one might think we are looking at one stretch of 108 PAs of good hitting in the last 2 years and 635 PAs.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by moonslav59