The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I've seen some streaky hitters, but JBJ might be the streakiest of them all.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I've seen some streaky hitters, but JBJ might be the streakiest of them all.

 

Agreed.

 

I'm sure someone could break up his seasons differently than I did, but basically, since 2015, he's had 6 hot streaks in 7 seasons.

 

Those hot streaks lasted these amounts of PAs:

 

129

121

146

234

417

108

 

Looking at the 417 large sample size in 2019, one could have broken that season into this:

.443 first 150

1.058 middle 152

.724 last 265

 

[notin]

Yes, I've seen some streaky hitters, but JBJ might be the streakiest of them all.

 

I would nominate Brian Daubach for that as well…

[harmony]

Would anyone trade Jackie Bradley Jr. for Toronto outfielder Randal Grichuk and Seattle reliever Matt Festa?

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-68144/

 

;)

Edited January 1, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I would nominate Brian Daubach for that as well…

 

Daubach had a nice 4 year stretch with us.

.833 OPS from 1999-2002.

Per 650 PAs...

28 HRs

100 RBI

42 2B+3B

 

Streaky?

1999

1.008 first 336 PAs

.569 last 84 PAs

2000

.876 first 319

.614 last 230

2001

.914 first 251

.794 last 221- Not a bad stretch at all.

2002

.983 first 142

.746 last 364- Not bad either.

 

JBJ gets the nod.

[Old Red]

Would anyone trade Jackie Bradley Jr. for Toronto outfielder Randal Grichuk and Seattle reliever Matt Festa?

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-68144/

 

;)

 

I don’t think they traded for JBJ to use as trade bait, and I don’t think anyone else would want him with that contract.

[notin]

I don’t think they traded for JBJ to use as trade bait, and I don’t think anyone else would want him with that contract.

 

Grichuk isn’t exactly a great deal either. I’d actually prefer JBJ over One Trick Grichuk…

[harmony]

Grichuk isn’t exactly a great deal either. I’d actually prefer JBJ over One Trick Grichuk…

Indeed it's a swap of bad contracts.

 

FWIW Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2022 WAR of 0.4 in 91 games, the righthand-hitting Randal Grichuk with a 2022 WAR of 0.9 in 119 games and Hunter Renfroe with a 2022 WAR of 1.2 in 133 games.

 

Bradley remains under team control for one year with an AAV of $12 million while Grichuk is under team control for two seasons with an AAV of $10.4 million. Bradley is 16 months older than Grichuk who is about five months older than Renfroe.

 

The Red Sox would essentially replace Renfroe with Grichuk while adding Alex Binelas, David Hamiton and righthander Matt Festa (a former Seattle minor league pitcher of the year who has posted a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.70 K/BB in 235 minor league innings).

[notin]

Indeed it's a swap of bad contracts.

 

FWIW Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2022 WAR of 0.4 in 91 games, the righthand-hitting Randal Grichuk with a 2022 WAR of 0.9 in 119 games and Hunter Renfroe with a 2022 WAR of 1.2 in 133 games.

 

Bradley remains under team control for one year with an AAV of $12 million while Grichuk is under team control for two seasons with an AAV of $10.4 million. Bradley is 16 months older than Grichuk who is about five months older than Renfroe.

 

The Red Sox would essentially replace Renfroe with Grichuk while adding Alex Binelas, David Hamiton and righthander Matt Festa (a former Seattle minor league pitcher of the year who has posted a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.70 K/BB in 235 minor league innings).

 

The Sox did get Bradley to fill a need. If they wanted a bad defensive outfielder with significant power and no glove, they already had Renfroe...

[moonslav59]

Indeed it's a swap of bad contracts.

 

FWIW Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2022 WAR of 0.4 in 91 games, the righthand-hitting Randal Grichuk with a 2022 WAR of 0.9 in 119 games and Hunter Renfroe with a 2022 WAR of 1.2 in 133 games.

 

Bradley remains under team control for one year with an AAV of $12 million while Grichuk is under team control for two seasons with an AAV of $10.4 million. Bradley is 16 months older than Grichuk who is about five months older than Renfroe.

 

The Red Sox would essentially replace Renfroe with Grichuk while adding Alex Binelas, David Hamiton and righthander Matt Festa (a former Seattle minor league pitcher of the year who has posted a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.70 K/BB in 235 minor league innings).

 

JBJ will make $17.5M/1 or $21.5M/2 (2022's number is due to the massive $8M buy out for 2023.

His lux tax number is $12M for 2022. I'm not sure what it would be for 2023 due to the $8M counting towards earlier years.

 

Grichuk makes $9.33M in 2022 and 2023, so it's $18.67M/2. That's about a $3M savings by the Sox.

His lux tax number is $10.4M x 2 years.

 

The money is pretty close.

 

OPS Comps

 

2015-2021

.768 Grichuk

.731 JBJ

 

2018-2021

.751 Grichuk

.681 JBJ

 

2020-2021

.730 Grichuk

.603 JBJ

 

Career dWAR

+9.6 JBJ

+0.5 Grichuk

[moonslav59]

The Sox did get Bradley to fill a need. If they wanted a bad defensive outfielder with significant power and no glove, they already had Renfroe...

 

Exactly, and the money saved is barely a minor factor.

[notin]

I could see the Red Sox acquring a bad contract at some point, possibly someone like Elvis Andrus, who would be used to offset the cost of something else.

 

But I prefer not Grichuk. I'd actually like Wil Myers over Grichuk, which is sort of like saying "I like being poisoned more than being stabbed."...

[harmony]

I could see the Red Sox acquring a bad contract at some point, possibly someone like Elvis Andrus, who would be used to offset the cost of something else.

 

But I prefer not Grichuk. I'd actually like Wil Myers over Grichuk, which is sort of like saying "I like being poisoned more than being stabbed."...

The response of the trade partner that gets stuck with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s contract.

 

Randal Grichuk is no coveted prize but Chaim Bloom reportedly is in the market for a righthanded bat:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/bloom-red-sox-will-seek-bullpen-help-right-handed-bat.html

[moonslav59]

The response of the trade partner that gets stuck with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s contract.

 

Randal Grichuk is no coveted prize but Chaim Bloom reportedly is in the market for a righthanded bat:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/bloom-red-sox-will-seek-bullpen-help-right-handed-bat.html

 

Yes, to platoon with JBJ.

[Old Red]

Yes, to platoon with JBJ.

 

Back to the bargain basement.

[harmony]

Yes, to platoon with JBJ.

Will the Red Sox platoon Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2022 with his price tag of $17.5 million?

[moonslav59]

Will the Red Sox platoon Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2022 with his price tag of $17.5 million?

 

I think they plan on keeping him for 2023, so it's really $21.5/2.

 

He bats lefty, so he has the longer split and can be used on defense late in games he does not start.

 

My guess is he gets 400-500 PAs, unless he hits under .550-.600.

 

[moonslav59]

Back to the bargain basement.

 

We could sign Suzuki and play JBJ in CF vs RHPs and Kike vs LHPs. (Kike plays 2B vs RHPs)

 

That's not really a bargain basement deal.

[Old Red]

We could sign Suzuki and play JBJ in CF vs RHPs and Kike vs LHPs. (Kike plays 2B vs RHPs)

 

That's not really a bargain basement deal.

 

Lots of talk about Suzuki, and would be worth a shot, but the Yankees are interested too.

[harmony]

We could sign Suzuki and play JBJ in CF vs RHPs and Kike vs LHPs. (Kike plays 2B vs RHPs)

 

That's not really a bargain basement deal.

An outfield of Seiya Suzuki, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Alex Verdugo should not require a platoon.

 

Of course the Red Sox would need to beat out the competition for Suzuki.

[Old Red]

An outfield of Seiya Suzuki, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Alex Verdugo should not require a platoon.

 

Of course the Red Sox would need to beat out the competition for Suzuki.

 

Wishful thinking that JBJ wouldn’t need a platoon. He may need a replacement as it is if he doesn’t hit his weight again.

[notin]

Lots of talk about Suzuki, and would be worth a shot, but the Yankees are interested too.

 

 

The Yankees do have a dire need for a RHH outfielder…

[Old Red]

The Yankees do have a dire need for a RHH outfielder…

 

He’s just not an outfielder.

[notin]

He’s just not an outfielder.

 

He’s not a shortstop, and that’s really the only position the tYankees need…

[Old Red]

He’s not a shortstop, and that’s really the only position the tYankees need…

 

Sean Mcadams reported a few weeks ago that Bos, Yankees, and Toronto were the most aggressive after him.

[notin]

Sean Mcadams reported a few weeks ago that Bos, Yankees, and Toronto were the most aggressive after him.

 

 

Yeah that doesn’t make him the smart move for any of them, especially since he’sa but of a wild card…

[moonslav59]

Wishful thinking that JBJ wouldn’t need a platoon. He may need a replacement as it is if he doesn’t hit his weight again.

 

I'm thinking the "compromise" is a platoon, although his career splits are not so far apart.

 

.717 vs RHPs

 

.674 vs LHPs

 

 

Edited January 2, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

I'm thinking the "compromise" is a platoon, although his career splits are not so far away.

 

.717 vs RHPs

 

.674 vs LHPs

 

 

 

Either sign Pham and platoon them in RF or platoon him with Christian Arroyo with Kike floating between CF and 2b. The pursuit of Suzuki - primarily an OF in Japan having played there for 888 of his 1042 career games - indicates the latter option might actually be in play…

[moonslav59]

Either sign Pham and platoon them in RF or platoon him with Christian Arroyo with Kike floating between CF and 2b. The pursuit of Suzuki - primarily an OF in Japan having played there for 888 of his 1042 career games - indicates the latter option might actually be in play…

 

I thought you disliked my ideas involving multi-positional platoons.

[notin]

I thought you disliked my ideas involving multi-positional platoons.

 

I am not for them, but the tea leaves I’m reading do suggest one might be possible. Just because I predict something doesn’t mean I endorse it…