A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

This COVID outbreak gives me a very bad feeling. Especially since the Red Sox are reportedly one of the teams in MLB not to reach the 85% vaccinated protocol.

 

Also not good that we have to play the Rays 6 more times.

 

Getting into that Wild Card game is going to be tough. The A's are only 1 back of us in the loss column.

[redsoxrules]

Barnes 162 game average is 68 appearances a year.hes currently sitting at 54 with 1 month left. He's not taxed. He's simply NOT that good. He's a decent releiver that should be be paid no more than 5Mil a year. Bloom goes trigger happy and signs him at the peak of the season. He should have waited till the end. Would of gotten him much cheaper. He's a CAREER 4 ERA essentially. Plenty of releivers out there who has a 4ERA that you could get at half the price

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes 162 game average is 68 appearances a year.hes currently sitting at 54 with 1 month left. He's not taxed. He's simply NOT that good. He's a decent releiver that should be be paid no more than 5Mil a year. Bloom goes trigger happy and signs him at the peak of the season. He should have waited till the end. Would of gotten him much cheaper. He's a CAREER 4 ERA essentially. Plenty of releivers out there who has a 4ERA that you could get at half the price

 

Have to disagree. When the extension was announced, people either said it was cheaper than expected or it was fair.

 

And of course he pitched great in the first half. No one saw such a meltdown coming.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Have to disagree. When the extension was announced, people either said it was cheaper than expected or it was fair.

 

And of course he pitched great in the first half. No one saw such a meltdown coming.

 

For all the talk and (very legitimate) worries about Barnes, his struggles only encompass 5.2 IP and 10 games. 5.2 IP is one bad start.

 

He's 31 and only signed a two year extension. He might never be the pitcher he was for the first 4 months of 2021 again, but even of he returns to being the pitcher he was in 2019, it will still be a win...

[mvp 78]

Here's my realistic view on 8/31/21:

 

This team is going to struggle down the stretch due to poor defense, poor relieving and poor baserunning. When you watch the Rays and Sox play each other, you really see the contrast. The Sox make stupid stupid mistakes. Why would Xander round 2b on a ball hit right to one of the best CFers in the game? What's with the string of interference/obstruction issues? Players seem to be out of position or unaware of where the ball should go. While Vaz has a high defensive rating per advanced metrics, he just doesn't inspire confidence behind the plate. The relief corps has been white knuckle since the deadline or so. The lineup is very top heavy and the Sox struggle at stringing together hits. This is probably just what happens when you are regressing from the beginning of the season when they were playing over their heads. Is this a player issue? A coaching issue? Just happenstance? It's just very frustrating watching this team doggie paddle for the past month.

[Nick]

Barnes 162 game average is 68 appearances a year.hes currently sitting at 54 with 1 month left. He's not taxed. He's simply NOT that good. He's a decent releiver that should be be paid no more than 5Mil a year. Bloom goes trigger happy and signs him at the peak of the season. He should have waited till the end. Would of gotten him much cheaper. He's a CAREER 4 ERA essentially. Plenty of releivers out there who has a 4ERA that you could get at half the price

 

This is why you can't fall in love with every single Sox player. Always look at the trade value and see if you can improve the team. Losing Betts to Dodgers did not make me a Dodgers fan. I rarely think about him. He's not US. He's THEM. See how that works?

 

We can't afford to give raise to Xander and sign Devers to a mega deal. I would trade Xander this winter and focus on extending Devers. He's not even 25 yet. He will always hit. We are losing JD, I hope he opts out. Our bullpen is in shambles.

 

Art of winning big requires bringing group of players to come together as a unit, at the same time. Had Chris Sale been healthy all year then maybe we could have ponied up a bit more at trading deadline and gone for the gold.

 

We're now in a position having to draw an inside straight. Possible, but not likely (I'm talking about winning the world series, because that's all it matters, ask a Yankee fan).

 

Our defense is horrible. Improvement must start at shortstop. We're fortunate to have found a decent defensive outfield group when JD/Schwarber is not in the outfield.

 

Pedey's dead money ($13.75M), Richards ($10M), Ottavino ($7.15M), Beni ($2.8M), Marwin ($3M), E Rod ($8.3M), Perez ($5M) adds up to little over $50M. Trading Xander will give us another $20M.

 

We'll lose Price's money ($16M), Eovaldi ($17M) and JD's ($22M) after 2022, totaling $55M.

 

That's total of $125M. Enough money to acquire an ace and rebuild the bullpen. Our #9 ranked farm system should provide the parent club with some younger talent, Casas at 1B as an example. Do not trade young guys, Dalbec comes to mind. He's cheap. We don't know what he's capable of.

 

We don't need multiple 'super' talent. Rays do it with not one single player making over $10M.

 

Keep churning players. Get some pitching help more than anything else.

 

Out hitting the other team is not baseball and it's not working.

 

The goal is not to collect high ops guys. The goal is to win.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

This is why you can't fall in love with every single Sox player. Always look at the trade value and see if you can improve the team.

 

We can't afford to give raise to Xander and sign Devers to a mega deal. I would trade Xander this winter and focus on extending Devers. He's not even 25 yet. He will always hit. We are losing JD, I hope he opts out. Our bullpen is in shambles.

 

Art of winning big requires bringing group of players to come together as a unit. Had Chris Sale been healthy all year then maybe we could have ponied up a bit more at trading deadline and gone for the gold.

 

We're now in a position having to draw an inside straight. Possible, but not likely (I'm talking about winning the world series, because that's all it matters, ask a Yankee fan).

 

Our defense is horrible. Improvement must start at shortstop. We're fortunate to have found a decent defensive outfield group when JD/Schwarber is not in the outfield.

 

Keep churning players. Get some pitching help more than anything else.

 

I completely and wholeheartedly agree. Everything has a price, but I do think there's value in continuity in terms of connecting with a fan base and building goodwill towards current and future players in your organization. Now who do you trade, and who do you build around? That's Blooms jobs.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

There's a good chance Cora may use both Brasier and Peacock in tonight's game. Something to look forward to.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's my realistic view on 8/31/21:

 

This team is going to struggle down the stretch due to poor defense, poor relieving and poor baserunning. When you watch the Rays and Sox play each other, you really see the contrast. The Sox make stupid stupid mistakes. Why would Xander round 2b on a ball hit right to one of the best CFers in the game? What's with the string of interference/obstruction issues? Players seem to be out of position or unaware of where the ball should go. While Vaz has a high defensive rating per advanced metrics, he just doesn't inspire confidence behind the plate. The relief corps has been white knuckle since the deadline or so. The lineup is very top heavy and the Sox struggle at stringing together hits. This is probably just what happens when you are regressing from the beginning of the season when they were playing over their heads. Is this a player issue? A coaching issue? Just happenstance? It's just very frustrating watching this team doggie paddle for the past month.

 

Well said.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Pretty hard to see much upside on Robles and Davis though. And the fact the deals weren't even known about until the last minute suggests Bloom was running around the flea market looking for anything that was left at closing time.

 

Look, I like Bloom a lot, but like every other exec we've had, sometimes he has to take some heat too.

 

He traded away a pretty good relief prospect in Alex Scherff. I'm not going to cry over losing Scherff but don't give him away either. The Red Sox gave him away for nothing. Scherff could develop into a really good major league reliever in a few years. If you decide to trade Scherff, get someone better than Robles.

[mvp 78]

Well said.

 

Maybe these are just things I didn't notice earlier in the summer? Admittedly, I'm watching more Sox games now than when they were rolling earlier in the year, but it's been ugly recently. It's a team with some good amount of star power, but they just aren't running on all cylinders. Something is off and I'm not sure what it is. I don't want to put all the blame on Cora, but the team feels very uncoached or at the very least just running through the motions.

[mvp 78]

He traded away a pretty good relief prospect in Alex Scherff. I'm not going to cry over losing Scherff but don't give him away either. The Red Sox gave him away for nothing. Scherff could develop into a really good major league reliever in a few years. If you decide to trade Scherff, get someone better than Robles.

 

I agree with Scherff. He has upside of a middle reliever. He may never make it, but Robles is just a waste of a roster spot. There are guys in AAA that could perform how he is performing right now.

 

The trade of Chavis for Davis is a bit better. Chavis didn't really have a roster spot long term. Davis has an extra year of control so it's at least another guy in the mix for next season.

[Bellhorn04]

The trade of Chavis for Davis is a bit better. Chavis didn't really have a roster spot long term. Davis has an extra year of control so it's at least another guy in the mix for next season.

 

The only problem is that Davis seems to be a below replacement level pitcher.

 

Can you see anything hopeful in his numbers? I'm stumped.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe these are just things I didn't notice earlier in the summer? Admittedly, I'm watching more Sox games now than when they were rolling earlier in the year, but it's been ugly recently. It's a team with some good amount of star power, but they just aren't running on all cylinders. Something is off and I'm not sure what it is. I don't want to put all the blame on Cora, but the team feels very uncoached or at the very least just running through the motions.

 

Cora is a good players' manager, but just like with Francona, it seems that eventually certain guys can get too comfortable and I hate to say... complacent. These aren't chicken and beer Sox, but when the catcher doesn't move his legs to body-block a dirtball and instead just tries (and misses) a backhand pick, it looks lazy. Perhaps there is an injury preventing him from moving? Or is it lack of accountability?

[iortiz]

We won the last 3 series as expected after a horrible stretch. It

 

I thought that the momentum could continue vs TB BUT we have lost some key players for whatever reason.

 

Also, Cora has not been sharp managing the BP. At this point of the season you have to send your best arms when you have a short lead in late innings. You don’t send Perez, Robles or Davis to protect a lead. It’s f***ing dumb. At this point of the season is a die or live scenario in every game, so you have to protect every win like a rabid dog.

 

Said that, We still have a chance if some key players come back as soon as possible and 100% healthy

[mvp 78]

The only problem is that Davis seems to be a below replacement level pitcher.

 

Can you see anything hopeful in his numbers? I'm stumped.

 

0.2 fWAR in 22 Innings with the Sox. He could be a 1 fWAR player in the pen next year!

 

He's not below replacement, I think he qualifies as mediocre.

[mvp 78]

We won the last 3 series as expected after a horrible stretch. It

 

I thought that the momentum could continue vs TB BUT we have lost some key players for whatever reason.

 

Also, Cora has not been sharp managing the BP. At this point of the season you have to send your best arms when you have a short lead in late innings. You don’t send Perez, Robles or Davis to protect a lead. It’s f***ing dumb. At this point of the season is a die or live scenario in every game, so you have to protect every win like a rabid dog.

 

Said that, We still have a chance if some key players come back as soon as possible and 100% healthy

 

Who are the arms you are going to now? Just Whitlock? Ottavino? Do you count Barnes?

 

Whitlock is not going to play in every game this team has a lead in. It's not fair to his arm. I'd rather they punt September than ruin Whitlock's arm.

[mvp 78]

Cora is a good players' manager, but just like with Francona, it seems that eventually certain guys can get too comfortable and I hate to say... complacent. These aren't chicken and beer Sox, but when the catcher doesn't move his legs to body-block a dirtball and instead just tries (and misses) a backhand pick, it looks lazy. Perhaps there is an injury preventing him from moving? Or is it lack of accountability?

 

With Vaz, I think that's just how he is comfortable receiving at the moment.

 

The team has played sloppy baseball lately. There's no getting around it.

[notin]

The only problem is that Davis seems to be a below replacement level pitcher.

 

Can you see anything hopeful in his numbers? I'm stumped.

 

His 5.6 hits/9 and his 10.2 K/9 in Pitt are both god numbers.

 

But then his 4.7BB/9 and his 1.9 HR/9 are pretty bad, to be kind.

 

That he only gave up 5.6 hits per 9 innings but 1.9 of them are home runs is actually kind of scary. 1 out of every 3 hits left the yard?

[mvp 78]

His 5.6 hits/9 and his 10.2 K/9 in Pitt are both god numbers.

 

But then his 4.7BB/9 and his 1.9 HR/9 are pretty bad, to be kind.

 

That he only gave up 5.6 hits per 9 innings but 1.9 of them are home runs is actually kind of scary. 1 out of every 3 hits left the yard?

 

Not surprising considering his pitch location.

 

HR#1 CB middle middle

HR#2 FB middle away

 

That's also a SSS alert.

[notin]

Not surprising considering his pitch location.

 

HR#1 CB middle middle

HR#2 FB middle away

 

That's also a SSS alert.

 

True. It was only 6 hits and 2 home runs…

[mvp 78]

True. It was only 6 hits and 2 home runs…

 

That's basically a John Wasdin appearance. https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=1998-05-11&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0

[dgalehouse]

Getting Fairbanks back has made the Ray's already strong bullpen that much tougher. He literally blew away Devers , Martinez and Bogaerts last night , killing any hope for a Sox' rally.

[moonslav59]

Pretty hard to see much upside on Robles and Davis though. And the fact the deals weren't even known about until the last minute suggests Bloom was running around the flea market looking for anything that was left at closing time.

 

Look, I like Bloom a lot, but like every other exec we've had, sometimes he has to take some heat too.

 

He obviously did not want to trade valuable prospects for a crap shoot. Had he decided to give more, he could easily have struck out.

 

I’m not equating Robles to Kimbrell.

[moonslav59]

He traded away a pretty good relief prospect in Alex Scherff. I'm not going to cry over losing Scherff but don't give him away either. The Red Sox gave him away for nothing. Scherff could develop into a really good major league reliever in a few years. If you decide to trade Scherff, get someone better than Robles.

 

I don’t disagree, but I think Bloom tried to get the most for a guy who was not going to be rule 5 protected.

 

He missed.

 

It happens.

 

He’s struck gold a few times, too.

[mvp 78]

He obviously did not want to trade valuable prospects for a crap shoot. Had he decided to give more, he could easily have struck out.

 

I’m not equating Robles to Kimbrell.

 

Instead of striking out swinging, he just k'd with the bat on his shoulder. Is that a moral victory?

[moonslav59]

His 5.6 hits/9 and his 10.2 K/9 in Pitt are both god numbers.

 

But then his 4.7BB/9 and his 1.9 HR/9 are pretty bad, to be kind.

 

That he only gave up 5.6 hits per 9 innings but 1.9 of them are home runs is actually kind of scary. 1 out of every 3 hits left the yard?

 

Hit or miss to the extreme.

 

Kinda like guessing on which RPer to trade for.

Edited August 31, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Instead of striking out swinging, he just k'd with the bat on his shoulder. Is that a moral victory?

 

Not at all.

 

Bloom missed. I'm not saying he should get no blame. I'm just trying to say that even some of the best RP'ers out there on the market would have cost much more and have not come through.

 

Of course the chances Kimbrel does better than Robles are great, and he still may be a big help going forward.

 

I'm not happy Bloom failed to get us a decent RP'er. Personally, I had hoped he'd get us a starter, so Houck could be used in the pen, but without knowing what teams wanted in return, I'm not going to bash Bloom. Overall, he's done a fantastic job getting this team competitive way faster and better than I expected. I didn't expect every single choice and move to work like a charm, and many have not. Many more have, so that's why I cut him some slack.

 

Expecting perfection from anyone is expecting disappointment.

 

I'm thrilled with the direction Bloom has set us on. That's good enough for me.

 

[moonslav59]

Hell no. We don't have quality pitching evaluators.

 

It's more than that.

 

Pitchers they trade away turn to pumpkins.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's more than that.

 

Pitchers they trade away turn to pumpkins.

 

 

They obviously have a system that is leaving everyone else's in the dust.