A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

Unfortunately, my cluster headaches are a repeatable skill.

[moonslav59]

We're a half game up on the WC2 slot!

[oldtimer]

After Shaw won the game with a walk off grand slam is unlikely to be an acceptable time to criticize our first base situation. Dalbec has been guilty of serious misplays at first and his hitting also doesn't appear to be improving with too many weak at bats. we got Shaw as a temporary option as a sub for Dalbec against right handed pitching. They do represent about 75% of pitchers faced. Shaw is big and slow and has not been hitting and was already seen to be expendable from another team. He came in defensively in the game today and failed to make 2 plays that a good first baseman should make. Both seriously hurt us. Fortunately for him and for the Sox he hit the GS. The news is Schwaber will have his maiden voyage at first this week. He is a professional hitter but it seems a stretch to start him there.

 

This year we have tried Dalbec, Chavis, Gonzalez, Santana, Arroyo and now Shaw with Schwaber on the horizon. Kind of speaks to problems in the Sox front office.

[Bellhorn04]

This year we have tried Dalbec, Chavis, Gonzalez, Santana, Arroyo and now Shaw with Schwaber on the horizon. Kind of speaks to problems in the Sox front office.

 

It's been frustrating, but a lot of it comes down to not having the resources to obtain a big upgrade. And our top prospect is a first baseman.

[a700hitter]

It's been frustrating, but a lot of it comes down to not having the resources to obtain a big upgrade. And our top prospect is a first baseman.

It’s like my Dad used to say when we asked for anything, “we don’t have the money”. Apparently. The billionaires who own the Red Sox are as poor as my Dad.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s like my Dad used to say when we asked for anything, “we don’t have the money”. Apparently. The billionaires who own the Red Sox are as poor as my Dad.

 

They sure hate paying "luxury tax". Or maybe that's more of a convenient explanation sometimes.

[moonslav59]

After Shaw won the game with a walk off grand slam is unlikely to be an acceptable time to criticize our first base situation. Dalbec has been guilty of serious misplays at first and his hitting also doesn't appear to be improving with too many weak at bats. we got Shaw as a temporary option as a sub for Dalbec against right handed pitching. They do represent about 75% of pitchers faced. Shaw is big and slow and has not been hitting and was already seen to be expendable from another team. He came in defensively in the game today and failed to make 2 plays that a good first baseman should make. Both seriously hurt us. Fortunately for him and for the Sox he hit the GS. The news is Schwaber will have his maiden voyage at first this week. He is a professional hitter but it seems a stretch to start him there.

 

This year we have tried Dalbec, Chavis, Gonzalez, Santana, Arroyo and now Shaw with Schwaber on the horizon. Kind of speaks to problems in the Sox front office.

 

I don't disagree with anything, but one point I'd like to add.

 

Bobby Dee has been making some very hard hit out's of late.

 

8/21 Deep 2B to CF (HR in some parks), K, Line out LF

8/20 HBP, K,Fly out deep R-CF (HR in some parks), BB

8/18 Line out short RF, Line out deep 2B, GO SS

8/17(2) PH lined off the P to 1B for an out

8/17(1) 1B (ground ball LF), K

8/15 GO SS/3B hole, K, K, GO 2B

Before this was his red hot streak.

 

 

[moonslav59]

It's been frustrating, but a lot of it comes down to not having the resources to obtain a big upgrade. And our top prospect is a first baseman.

 

It makes it more frustrating when we all know how decent 1Bmen cost a dime a dozen, and our choice for back-up (Danny Santana) pooped out right out of the gate.

[moonslav59]

They sure hate paying "luxury tax". Or maybe that's more of a convenient explanation sometimes.

 

I don't think Henry would have mined paying a $M or $2M in taxes, this year. I think it was about thinking of going significantly over in 1-2 years and maybe even 3 and worrying about the multiplier factor and non financial penalties, too.

[Bellhorn04]

It makes it more frustrating when we all know how decent 1Bmen cost a dime a dozen, and our choice for back-up (Danny Santana) pooped out right out of the gate.

 

You keep saying they're a dime a dozen, but the Red Sox and Yankees both had a lot of busts at the position this year.

[moonslav59]

You keep saying they're a dime a dozen, but the Red Sox and Yankees both had a lot of busts at the position this year.

 

The hard part is spending that dime, wisely.

 

As much as I've dissed Moreland, that was one guy that kept pretty consistent, except he cost a quarter.

[moonslav59]

Out of the 72 1Bmen with over 50 PAs, this year, 37 have an OPS over .730, including the Yanks 1Bman, of late, Luke "IL Walker" Voit.

 

30 are over .760.

 

We have #44 Dalbec at .712

#57 Shaw at .606 (before the blast)

#64 Santana at .554

(Not even counting Marwin at .567)

[moonslav59]

Updated Team Leaders

 

OBP

.538 Schwarber (da man!)

.375 Bogey (maybe he should bat 2nd- not Devers/Schwarber)

.357 Wong (What's wong with Bloom demoting him?)

.356 Plawecki (The fake news CERA leader)

.353 JD (Did I miss something?)

.350 Devers (Lock him up- long term!)

.349 Verdugo (remember when he batted 2nd?)

.343 Kike (How can our 8th best OBP batter be slotted first?)

.325 Arroyo (Welcome back)

.313 Renfroe (One area to improve- not bad only one)

.304 Vaz (Hanging above .300)

.281 Dalbec (Woulda been real nice as a BA)

.236 Duran (Shoulda called him up before he was ready)

.230 Santana (Keeping Shaw and others relevant)

.200 Shaw (Did I say Shaw?)

 

SLG

.800 Shaw (Damn right I said Shaw!)

.549 Devers (Lock him up! I can't say the enough!)

.538 Wong (2 Wongs don't make a Wright.)

.529 JD (Bring it up a notch, JD!)

.526 Schwarber (Wait, has he done anything but walk?)

.519 Bogey (Mr. Steady, despite the wrist injury)

.487 Renfroe (Mr. Surprise)

.462 Arroyo (Quiet power)

.450 Kike (Not a fluke)

.429 Bobby Dee (What happened to thee?)

.429 Verdugo (Get back to worrying about OBP not SLG)

.372 Duran (Better keep this to myself)

.367 Plawecki (Solid back-up)

.343 Vaz (Hoping they don't cut Santana)

.324 Santana (Next Mr. DFA?)

 

RBI

90 Devers

70 JD

72 Renfroe

69 Bogey

52 Dalbec (despite being 8th in PAs)

48 Kike

46 Verdugo

38 Vaz

25 Arroyo

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

The hard part is spending that dime, wisely.

 

As much as I've dissed Moreland, that was one guy that kept pretty consistent, except he cost a quarter.

 

Moreland has the glove and would have been a smart addition while Casas is readied. Several of us made that recommendation.

[moonslav59]

Moreland has the glove and would have been a smart addition while Casas is readied. Several of us made that recommendation.

 

Their hope in Dalbec seemed misplaced or premature... still not sure which one it is, yet.

[vegasbob]

Their hope in Dalbec seemed misplaced or premature... still not sure which one it is, yet.

 

Lots of team control and ARB years if he panned out instead of K out. I would think he'll be in Ft. Myers next Spring hanging on the edge like Chavis did this year. Or possibly be a throw -in in a multiplayer trade deal.

[moonslav59]

Remaining schedules

 

BOS--- NYY---OAK

vMIN3-@ATL2--vSEA2

@CL3--@OAK4-vNYY4

@TR4-@LAA3-@DET3

vCLE3-vBAL3--@TOR3

vTBR3-vTOR4---vCWS

@CWS3-@NYM3---vTEX3

@SEA3-MN1/@BAL3-@KCR3

vBAL3-v CLE3---@LAA3

vNYM2-vTEX3--vSEA4

vNYY3-@BOS3-vHOU3

@BAL3-@TOR3-@SEA3

@WSH3-vTBR3-@HOU3

 

[moonslav59]

Lots of team control and ARB years if he panned out instead of K out. I would think he'll be in Ft. Myers next Spring hanging on the edge like Chavis did this year. Or possibly be a throw -in in a multiplayer trade deal.

 

I'd say Dalbec is a step above Chavis. They both had an initial burst onto the scene, but Dalbec's low point is like 100-150+ better than Chavis's.

 

His D still worries me, while Chavis seemed to do better than expected on D, even at 2B.

 

I can see us getting a 1Bman to hit RHPs and keeping Dalbec on the 26, but certainly AAA is a good possibility.

[moonslav59]

Tales of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

 

OPS Against (Not counting today)

 

Barnes

.394 first 25 games

.718 last 25 games (.778 last 6 games)

 

Ottavino

.577 in first 38 games (2.57)

.791 in last 14 games (6.75)

 

Richards

.755 first 12 starts

.945 last 13 games (.526 last 3 games/ 8 IP)

 

Perez

.711 first 12 starts (3.09 ERA)

1.019 last 16 games (.865 last 5 games)

 

ERod

.740 first 6 games (3.82 ERA)

.903 next 8 games (7.94 ERA)

.668 last 10 games (3.83 ERA)

 

Eovaldi

.647 first 6 games (3.63)

.647 next 3 games (6.46)

.695 next 8 games (2.27)

.760 last 4 games (4.94) Not counting today

 

[Nick]

The Rays have been very fortunate in clustering their hits together, another luck thing as opposed to a skill thing. Their offense leads all of baseball with +84.2 runs in cluster runs. The Red Sox are 13th in MLB with +29.3. That's pretty much the difference right there - clustering hits together versus spreading them out.

 

I'm officially dead. Someone has already invented clustering factor in baseball? And you kept that secret from me? I've been a fan for over 50 years and that is first I heard of it?

[Nick]

Luckily Rays got this one wrong.

Heading into the season, most expected that Renfroe would be the starting right fielder against lefties and an occasional righty. After all, he was non-tendered by the Rays before the Red Sox got him for the modest price tag of $3 million for one year. However, Renfroe has emerged as a mainstay in manager Alex Cora’s lineup, starting 108 of Boston’s first 125 games. Renfroe has 22 homers, just one fewer than J.D. Martinez. The right-handed-hitting veteran has held his own against righties, belting 14 homers to go with a .755 OPS. Defensively, he’s been tremendous, leading the league with 14 outfield assists.

[moonslav59]

Luckily Rays got this one wrong.

Heading into the season, most expected that Renfroe would be the starting right fielder against lefties and an occasional righty. After all, he was non-tendered by the Rays before the Red Sox got him for the modest price tag of $3 million for one year. However, Renfroe has emerged as a mainstay in manager Alex Cora’s lineup, starting 108 of Boston’s first 125 games. Renfroe has 22 homers, just one fewer than J.D. Martinez. The right-handed-hitting veteran has held his own against righties, belting 14 homers to go with a .755 OPS. Defensively, he’s been tremendous, leading the league with 14 outfield assists.

 

I'm not sure anyone expected his defense. We were all talking about Verdugo in CF or RF.

 

The offense has been just as surprising, to me. I too thought he'd platoon with Cordero in LF.

 

He's been the type of diamond in the ruff I thought Ben would find, but I'd have never singled him out among all of the others.

 

(BTW, 23 HRs, now and still an .800 OPS.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure anyone expected his defense. We were all talking about Verdugo in CF or RF.

 

The offense has been just as surprising, to me. I too thought he'd platoon with Cordero in LF.

 

He's been the type of diamond in the ruff I thought Ben would find, but I'd have never singled him out among all of the others.

 

(BTW, 23 HRs, now and still an .800 OPS.)

 

At peace with WAR: JD 2.9, Hunter 1.9. Martinez leads in most batting averages, but traditional stats are nearly identical; each with 23 HRs, 70-something RBIs. On defense, both are negative dWARs, even though Renfroe leads the big leagues in assists.

 

Ok, Sox fans: who do you think has been a better player at the plate and in the outfield combined?

[Bellhorn04]

Their hope in Dalbec seemed misplaced or premature... still not sure which one it is, yet.

 

Like you said, Moreland cost too many dimes. And Bloom probably got a tidy bonus for staying under the tax line.

[moonslav59]

Like you said, Moreland cost too many dimes. And Bloom probably got a tidy bonus for staying under the tax line.

 

Had we known Marwin and Andriese would be this bad, we could have signed Moreland, instead.

 

Can't blame Bloom for not getting every addition right, especially at bargain basement levels.

[moonslav59]

The A's pen is giving away games, left and right.

 

Last night, it was 3 in the ninth to lose 5-3 to the M's, who just may pass the A's, at some point.

 

We are now up 1 for the WC2 slot.

 

As good as the CWS have looked, we are one down from tying them.

[Bellhorn04]

At peace with WAR: JD 2.9, Hunter 1.9. Martinez leads in most batting averages, but traditional stats are nearly identical; each with 23 HRs, 70-something RBIs. On defense, both are negative dWARs, even though Renfroe leads the big leagues in assists.

 

Ok, Sox fans: who do you think has been a better player at the plate and in the outfield combined?

 

FanGraphs WAR has JD at 2.5 and Hunter 1.5 for the identical difference of 1.0.

 

OPS 882 to 800 tells the tale.

 

Renfroe has been great, but JD's stick makes him more valuable.

[Bellhorn04]

Had we known Marwin and Andriese would be this bad, we could have signed Moreland, instead.

 

Can't blame Bloom for not getting every addition right, especially at bargain basement levels.

 

Nope, can't blame him for having to pinch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The A's pen is giving away games, left and right.

 

Last night, it was 3 in the ninth to lose 5-3 to the M's, who just may pass the A's, at some point.

 

We are now up 1 for the WC2 slot.

 

As good as the CWS have looked, we are one down from tying them.

 

White Sox lead their division by nine games; Kimbrel can blow a game per week and they'll still dance. Houston only has two more wins than Boston. Any team in the AL East advancing to the postseason has a legit shot at winning the pennant... maybe even a ring. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the NL the past month, leads the NL East by 4.5 games, and the Red Sox' record is still 2 1/2 games better.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs WAR has JD at 2.5 and Hunter 1.5 for the identical difference of 1.0.

 

OPS 882 to 800 tells the tale.

 

Renfroe has been great, but JD's stick makes him more valuable.

 

fangraphs has Renfroe at a +1.6 UZR/150 with his 2 errors keeping it lower than it might have been. They also have him at plus range and arm.

 

JD is the clear winner between the two, but JD's bat has cooled off a bit, but remains steady after a great April..

1.175 APR

.801 MAY

.788 JUN

.806 JUL

.826 AUG

 

Hunter has yo-yo'd:

.485 APR (posters wanted him demoted or DFA'd)

.938 MAY

.884 JUN

.650 JUL

.959 AUG