A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

White Sox lead their division by nine games; Kimbrel can blow a game per week and they'll still dance. Houston only has two more wins than Boston. Any team in the AL East advancing to the postseason has a legit shot at winning the pennant... maybe even a ring. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the NL the past month, leads the NL East by 4.5 games, and the Red Sox' record is still 2 1/2 games better.

 

The Stros can't beat the Royals.

 

The ALE is moving towards having the best 3 records in the AL.

 

It's a very hard thing to do, but harmony will argue that because the ALW has a winning records vs the ALE and plays the NLW not the NLE, they are a better division.

 

We'll see. (Even TOR is making a run at it.)

[Bellhorn04]

fangraphs has Renfroe at a +1.6 UZR/150 with his 2 errors keeping it lower than it might have been. They also have him at plus range and arm.

 

JD is the clear winner between the two, but JD's bat has cooled off a bit, but remains steady after a great April..

1.175 APR

.801 MAY

.788 JUN

.806 JUL

.826 AUG

 

Hunter has yo-yo'd:

.485 APR (posters wanted him demoted or DFA'd)

.938 MAY

.884 JUN

.650 JUL

.959 AUG

 

Those numbers for JD suggest he won't be thinking about opting out unless he closes with a major hot streak.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Stros can't beat the Royals.

 

The ALE is moving towards having the best 3 records in the AL.

 

It's a very hard thing to do, but harmony will argue that because the ALW has a winning records vs the ALE and plays the NLW not the NLE, they are a better division.

 

We'll see. (Even TOR is making a run at it.)

 

Interleague play and the imbalanced schedule used to irk me, even though Boston always seemed to fare well vs. the NL. But "traditional" match-ups always favored the Yankees, because the Mets sucked for so long. Meanwhile, the Sox always get the Braves, who maybe somewhere in the nation still have a couple fans whose ancient ancestors once lived in the Comm Ave area near Boston University and rooted for the Senior Circuit Nine.

[Bellhorn04]

Interleague play and the imbalanced schedule used to irk me, even though Boston always seemed to fare well vs. the NL. But "traditional" match-ups always favored the Yankees, because the Mets sucked for so long. Meanwhile, the Sox always get the Braves, who maybe somewhere in the nation still have a couple fans whose ancient ancestors once lived in the Comm Ave area near Boston University and rooted for the Senior Circuit Nine.

 

Which raises a question for stat-diggers: which teams have profited the most from these "traditional" match-ups?

[mvp 78]

Which raises a question for stat-diggers: which teams have profited the most from these "traditional" match-ups?

 

Yankees vs Mets

Cardinals vs Royals

 

Red Sox have also been able to beat up on the Phillies over the years. The Sox split their rivalry between the Braves and the Phillies in even and odd years. The Jays face the Braves in odd years and Phillies in even years. Astros/Rockies/DBags/Rangers share their rivalries in a similar manner.

[notin]

Which raises a question for stat-diggers: which teams have profited the most from these "traditional" match-ups?

 

Chicago teams.

 

No matter how those teams are doing, the crosstown rivalry is played up big. It becomes the theme in numerous commercials…

[mvp 78]

Chicago teams.

 

No matter how those teams are doing, the crosstown rivalry is played up big. It becomes the theme in numerous commercials…

 

Well in terms of "profit" I'd go with the clear favorite: Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Here’s more on the players-only meeting that, according to Alex Verdugo, had the Red Sox pulling for each other like Little Leaguers on Monday

 

We're now in the players-only meetings time of year.

[Bellhorn04]

Chicago teams.

 

No matter how those teams are doing, the crosstown rivalry is played up big. It becomes the theme in numerous commercials…

 

Well in terms of "profit" I'd go with the clear favorite: Detroit vs Pittsburgh.

 

"Profit" was an unintentionally ambiguous word there. I was just thinking of W's and L's.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

"Profit" was an unintentionally ambiguous word there. I was just thinking of W's and L's.

 

Yes, then the Yankees and Cardinals have benefitted the most.

 

Now if the Sox could only play the Phillies every year rather than every other year...

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Red Sox starters have a 3.11 ERA in their last 15 games, their lowest mark over any 15-game span this season.

 

During that time, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale have combined for a 1.55 ERA with 36 strikeouts and 3 walks.

 

This is what happens when you move Perez and Richards out of the rotation.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Very curious who the countermove for Houck coming back up will be today. Would not be surprised if it's Duran. He's started just 2 of the last 7 and has really struggled. Not sure having him as 4th (5th?) OF is the right move for him right now.

 

They wouldn't DFA Shaw after he hit the walk off. Would they?

 

Does sending Duran back to the launching pad hurt his development?

 

Maybe just option Austin Davis to AAA?

[Bellhorn04]

@SPChrisHatfield

Very curious who the countermove for Houck coming back up will be today. Would not be surprised if it's Duran. He's started just 2 of the last 7 and has really struggled. Not sure having him as 4th (5th?) OF is the right move for him right now.

 

They wouldn't DFA Shaw after he hit the walk off. Would they?

 

No chance.

[mvp 78]

No chance.

 

So they demote Duran then?

[Bellhorn04]

So they demote Duran then?

 

Very good chance of it, I'd say.

[Kimmi]

After Shaw won the game with a walk off grand slam is unlikely to be an acceptable time to criticize our first base situation. Dalbec has been guilty of serious misplays at first and his hitting also doesn't appear to be improving with too many weak at bats. we got Shaw as a temporary option as a sub for Dalbec against right handed pitching. They do represent about 75% of pitchers faced. Shaw is big and slow and has not been hitting and was already seen to be expendable from another team. He came in defensively in the game today and failed to make 2 plays that a good first baseman should make. Both seriously hurt us. Fortunately for him and for the Sox he hit the GS. The news is Schwaber will have his maiden voyage at first this week. He is a professional hitter but it seems a stretch to start him there.

 

This year we have tried Dalbec, Chavis, Gonzalez, Santana, Arroyo and now Shaw with Schwaber on the horizon. Kind of speaks to problems in the Sox front office.

 

It was an ugly game on many fronts. I can't argue that. Defense has gotten exponentially worse the second half of the season. I can't argue that either.

 

IMO, the FO is doing the best they can, under the constraints that they have, to address the situation. I understand why most people feel like the Sox should have thrown those constraints out the window and should have gone bigger at the deadline. I don't agree with it though.

 

Fingers crossed that Schwarber can play good 1B for us without getting injured. Having Arroyo back should help with the overall defense as well.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox are feeling the pressure. They were 23 games over .500 on July 26 and are now 16 over while the Yankees are on a 10 game winning streak but still can't catch the Rays with the best record (29 games over .500) in the AL.

 

Devers now can't stop chewing the largest wad of chewing tobacco seen in years in MLB. Amazingly, Bogie (4.1) and Rike (4.0) now have higher WAR's than Devers (3.6), whom I regard as easily the team MVP.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers now can't stop chewing the largest wad of chewing tobacco seen in years in MLB. Amazingly, Bogie (4.1) and Rike (4.0) now have higher WAR's than Devers (3.6), whom I regard as easily the team MVP.

 

The numbers don't lie. Raffi is not the MVP. His defense has been too spotty.

[Kimmi]

I don't think Henry would have mined paying a $M or $2M in taxes, this year. I think it was about thinking of going significantly over in 1-2 years and maybe even 3 and worrying about the multiplier factor and non financial penalties, too.

 

Staying under the tax limit this year really has nothing to do with this year. It's about the next 2-3 years. IMO, that has to be the mindset of a GM.

[Kimmi]

I'm officially dead. Someone has already invented clustering factor in baseball? And you kept that secret from me? I've been a fan for over 50 years and that is first I heard of it?

 

You gotta love stat geeks. I certainly do.

[Kimmi]

Luckily Rays got this one wrong.

Heading into the season, most expected that Renfroe would be the starting right fielder against lefties and an occasional righty. After all, he was non-tendered by the Rays before the Red Sox got him for the modest price tag of $3 million for one year. However, Renfroe has emerged as a mainstay in manager Alex Cora’s lineup, starting 108 of Boston’s first 125 games. Renfroe has 22 homers, just one fewer than J.D. Martinez. The right-handed-hitting veteran has held his own against righties, belting 14 homers to go with a .755 OPS. Defensively, he’s been tremendous, leading the league with 14 outfield assists.

 

Mookie who?

[mvp 78]

The numbers don't lie. Raffi is not the MVP. His defense has been too spotty.

 

He's also on a third place team that is falling fast.

[Maxbialystock]

It was an ugly game on many fronts. I can't argue that. Defense has gotten exponentially worse the second half of the season. I can't argue that either.

 

IMO, the FO is doing the best they can, under the constraints that they have, to address the situation. I understand why most people feel like the Sox should have thrown those constraints out the window and should have gone bigger at the deadline. I don't agree with it though.

 

Fingers crossed that Schwarber can play good 1B for us without getting injured. Having Arroyo back should help with the overall defense as well.

 

Sensible response. Good field, no hit is the usual description of a minor leaguer, and right now the only Sox player who is good at both is Rike. Renfroe does have 14 outfield assists, but also 8 errors. Sox second basemen, especially Arroyo and Rike, have been OK this year, but not SS or 1b--and, lately, not 3b either. Devers now has 18 errors. Indeed, once Schwarber became available for hitting, Cora moved JDM to the outfield to free up the DH slot.

 

The simple fact is that Sox and a whole lot of other MLB teams want hitters. If you buy the thesis of Moneyball, in which Billy Beane says he doesn't care that Scott Hatteberg's arm is shot because he is great at getting on base, you don't even have to hit. Learning to play 1b, Beane assures Hatteberg, will be easy,

 

With Arroyo back, the Sox problem of getting Schwarber into the lineup just got harder because JDM is the DH, and the outfield of Verdugo, Rike, and Renfroe is pretty decent. Remembering Joe Napoli and other catchers who switched to 1b, I honestly don't think Schwarber should find 1b that hard. He already has experience catching short hops. The problem might be stretching, but I would settle for a short stretch and just catching the dang ball.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Kimmi]

The numbers don't lie. Raffi is not the MVP. His defense has been too spotty.

 

Strangely enough, I am not happy with Bogaerts' 'clutch' performance.

 

To me, he does not seem to get it done in big moments.

 

I would rather see Devers up to bat when we need a big hit than Bogaerts.

[mvp 78]

Sensible response. Good field, no hit is the usual description of a minor leaguer, and right now the only Sox player who is good at both is Rike. Renfroe does have 14 outfield assists, but also 8 errors. Sox second basemen, especially Arroyo and Rike, have been OK this year, but not SS or 1b--and, lately, not 3b either. Devers now has 18 errors.

 

The simple fact is that Sox and a whole lot of other MLB teams want hitters, or, if you buy the thesis of Moneyball, in which Billy Beane says he doesn't care that Scott Hatteberg's arm is shot because he is great at getting on base. Learning to play 1b, he says, will be easy.

 

With Arroyo back, the Sox problem of getting Schwarber into the lineup just got harder because JDM is the DH, and the outfield of Verdugo, Rike, and Renfroe is pretty decent.

 

It turned out that Hatteberg was a picking machine tho.

[Kimmi]

Sensible response. Good field, no hit is the usual description of a minor leaguer, and right now the only Sox player who is good at both is Rike. Renfroe does have 14 outfield assists, but also 8 errors. Sox second basemen, especially Arroyo and Rike, have been OK this year, but not SS or 1b--and, lately, not 3b either. Devers now has 18 errors.

 

The simple fact is that Sox and a whole lot of other MLB teams want hitters, or, if you buy the thesis of Moneyball, in which Billy Beane says he doesn't care that Scott Hatteberg's arm is shot because he is great at getting on base. Learning to play 1b, he says, will be easy.

 

With Arroyo back, the Sox problem of getting Schwarber into the lineup just got harder because JDM is the DH, and the outfield of Verdugo, Rike, and Renfroe is pretty decent.

 

Yes, things will be so much easier for Cora and the Sox if Schwarber can play 1B well. JD should not be playing the field regularly, if at all. If Schwarber doesn't fit at 1B, then I guess Cora will find a way to get creative with his rosters.

[mvp 78]

Strangely enough, I am not happy with Bogaerts' 'clutch' performance.

 

To me, he does not seem to get it done in big moments.

 

I would rather see Devers up to bat when we need a big hit than Bogaerts.

 

Xander has a negative Clutch number on Fangraphs. Devers is barely above water.

 

Team Leaders in "Clutch" per FG:

Arroyo

Verdugo

Marwin

Dalbec

Vaz

 

Bottom Five

Renfroe

Kiké

Bogaerts

Plawecki

Santana

[Bellhorn04]

Xander has a negative Clutch number on Fangraphs. Devers is barely above water.

 

Team Leaders in "Clutch" per FG:

Arroyo

Verdugo

Marwin

Dalbec

Vaz

 

Bottom Five

Renfroe

Kiké

Bogaerts

Plawecki

Santana

 

Boy does that look random. Look at Marwin!

[mvp 78]

Boy does that look random. Look at Marwin!

 

I have no idea how they compute "Clutch" but it does seem to give some random results.

[moonslav59]

@SPChrisHatfield

Very curious who the countermove for Houck coming back up will be today. Would not be surprised if it's Duran. He's started just 2 of the last 7 and has really struggled. Not sure having him as 4th (5th?) OF is the right move for him right now.

 

They wouldn't DFA Shaw after he hit the walk off. Would they?

 

Does sending Duran back to the launching pad hurt his development?

 

Maybe just option Austin Davis to AAA?

 

I'd send Davis down as Robles is out of options.

 

We don't need 14pitchers.