A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

Personally for me the good news is that the front office is willing to accept the blame if that word really works here for the Red Sox season. it is not something that we see often these days. No excuses - a clear message to the fans that they should have done a better job.

 

I don’t read it that way. It’s not like he admitted they should have made another trade or two- just that they have to take ownership for the results.

 

I’m not sure they’d have done anything different in hindsight except then they’d have known Schwarber was not going to be playing 1B as soon as they expected.

[Hugh2]

I don’t read it that way. It’s not like he admitted they should have made another trade or two- just that they have to take ownership for the results.

 

I’m not sure they’d have done anything different in hindsight except then they’d have known Schwarber was not going to be playing 1B as soon as they expected.

 

I'd take it even one step further, is Schwarber really not playing 1B because he's not ready and the Sox thought he would be by now? Or are they just not playing him there yet? He's only been in the lineup for days, and Dalbec had been hitting, and we know how Cora likes to rotate guys and go L/R/L/R etc.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, big league hitters have to guess. I played in college. I played against a ton of guys who got drafted and even against a few future major leaguers. Here’s the deal about speeds. When I played 20 years back, if you threw 90 in HS, you were getting drafted. Hitting a 90mph pitch wasn’t that hard. You had an extra split second to see it, track it, and get your hands to it. 93-95 was an order of magnitude more difficult to hit. It’s only 3-5mph but your eyes see it as 50% faster. It’s strange. Hardest I ever faced was 98. I never saw the ball path. I heard it and I saw glimpses of the pitch as if I was watching the ball come in on an old movie reel. There was release, then halfway then glove. My eyes and brain couldn’t process it until it was in the glove. So you guess, adjust location and go. Made good contact, but if he threw an off speed pitch, I was meat. 95+ was rare 20 years ago. Now 95+ is the expectation. That’s insane

 

Also, while raw strength isn’t sapped into your thirties, quickness is. Bat speed is not about raw strength. It’s about quick hands. That’s why you don’t see a ton of enormously jacked baseball players. They’re typically long, slender and flexible with strong as hell hands.

[oldtimer]

There was a time, not that long ago, where the Sox were a cutting edge team trying to acquire players that got on base and drove up opposing starter’s pitch counts.

 

Now, we seem to be the opposite of those teams.

 

I agree. Making the pitcher throw strikes, making contact, speed and good base running are positives. Big, slow guys with long swings who want a HR and don't adjust after getting down on the count. That is what we are headed into. Bogie and Kike are exceptions on the current team.

[Bellhorn04]

Schoop’s extension was reported on August 7, after the deadline.

 

Now it’s pretty likely negotiations started prior to the deadline, but so far it’s not definitive…

 

It explains why they didn't trade him, doesn't it?

[jad]

Yes, big league hitters have to guess. I played in college. I played against a ton of guys who got drafted and even against a few future major leaguers. Here’s the deal about speeds. When I played 20 years back, if you threw 90 in HS, you were getting drafted. Hitting a 90mph pitch wasn’t that hard. You had an extra split second to see it, track it, and get your hands to it. 93-95 was an order of magnitude more difficult to hit. It’s only 3-5mph but your eyes see it as 50% faster. It’s strange. Hardest I ever faced was 98. I never saw the ball path. I heard it and I saw glimpses of the pitch as if I was watching the ball come in on an old movie reel. There was release, then halfway then glove. My eyes and brain couldn’t process it until it was in the glove. So you guess, adjust location and go. Made good contact, but if he threw an off speed pitch, I was meat. 95+ was rare 20 years ago. Now 95+ is the expectation. That’s insane

 

Also, while raw strength isn’t sapped into your thirties, quickness is. Bat speed is not about raw strength. It’s about quick hands. That’s why you don’t see a ton of enormously jacked baseball players. They’re typically long, slender and flexible with strong as hell hands.

 

This suggests that just moving the mound back might not be enough? Is it the amount of time that it takes for a 98mph to get to the plate? or the difficulty of picking up something moving that fast?

[Bellhorn04]

Also, while raw strength isn’t sapped into your thirties, quickness is. Bat speed is not about raw strength. It’s about quick hands. That’s why you don’t see a ton of enormously jacked baseball players. They’re typically long, slender and flexible with strong as hell hands.

 

What about juicers like Canseco and McGwire. We've seen some pretty big dudes hitting long balls since their day. What about Stanton, he's pretty damn big and muscular.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This suggests that just moving the mound back might not be enough? Is it the amount of time that it takes for a 98mph to get to the plate? or the difficulty of picking up something moving that fast?

 

For the modern fastball, if you don't start early enough, you're doomed. This is why there are millions of check-swings, coming in the last fraction of a second when guys with the best hand-eye coordination detect direction moving out of the zone.

 

It's also why I can't see a guy like Duran sticking in the big leagues unless he changes his stance. His hands are too low; by the time he brings them up to swing, it's too late. I know he made it to the majors with this stance, but there are just too many pitchers throwing 100 mph at the top level.

 

It just may be a skill guessing when to take, anticipating the junk, and having the discipline to leave the bat on your shoulder. But guessing wrong and watching one right down the middle can make a guy look foolish -- and actually more "fooled" than flailing at breaking balls (as described by announcers who never had to face pro pitching).

[iortiz]

The offense slumped, the SP slumped and recently our biggest strength, the BP, slumped as well.

 

It took more than I thought but hopefully the turn around begins tonight.

[S5Dewey]

I've had only one exposure to 95+ pitching and it was as a spectator. Here's my take experience.

 

Back before the days of the Super Regionals UMaine was hosting the Northeast regional and since it was only an hour's drive away my son and I spent a couple of days there. Umaine was playing along with Villanova and several other teams in the tourney at at one point the PA guy said, "Now pitching for Villanova, Bill Bliss", and the scouts rushed to their radar guns to watch him pitch.

 

Thinking that Bliss might be something special my son and I took seats in the first row behind home plate but slightly off to one side where we could see the ball coming to the plate. I found that I could follow the ball until it was about half way to the plate and after that it became a blur about a foot long. After Bliss' inning I went to one of the scouts (one of the great things about UMaine back then was that you could talk with ANYBODY!). I asked how fast they had Bliss on the gun and he said between 94 - 96 mph.

I then did a little research and learned that the human eye doesn't move in a sweeping direction, it moves it steps. Very quick steps, but steps nontheless- and it can't catch up with the ball at about 94+.

 

That gave me a whole new appreciation for those hitters who can make contact with the 100 mph pitches, not only for the bat quickness to hit the ball but also just to see the ball.

 

That's my experience... yours may differ.

 

And BTW, I still want to be included the day you pay off that bet to Bell. :-)

[mvp 78]

For the modern fastball, if you don't start early enough, you're doomed. This is why there are millions of check-swings, coming in the last fraction of a second when guys with the best hand-eye coordination detect direction moving out of the zone.

 

It's also why I can't see a guy like Duran sticking in the big leagues unless he changes his stance. His hands are too low; by the time he brings them up to swing, it's too late. I know he made it to the majors with this stance, but there are just too many pitchers throwing 100 mph at the top level.

 

It just may be a skill guessing when to take, anticipating the junk, and having the discipline to leave the bat on your shoulder. But guessing wrong and watching one right down the middle can make a guy look foolish -- and actually more "fooled" than flailing at breaking balls (as described by announcers who never had to face pro pitching).

 

Is his stance all that different from Verdugo and Bellinger?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Schwarber at 29 may just have better eyesight than Martinez at 34, and thus be a better investment for the Red Sox rebuilders.

 

One major sign of decline is strikezone judgment and Martinez is demonstrating the worst strikezone judgment of his career. In contrast, Schwarber only swings at pitches out of the zone 24% of the time.

 

This is why Schwarber must be resigned. I don't know what the Red Sox do with Martinez if he doesn't opt out. They could keep Martinez for DH and play Schwarber at 1b, but a better idea might be to move Schwarber to full time DH, find a starting 1b (one year contract), and trade Martinez. The Red Sox could always include 5 million or so to help pay off the final year of Martinez's contract.

 

If the Red Sox priority next year is to cut back on expanding the zone on offense, how could the Red Sox justify not resigning Schwarber? And Cora has been preaching a better offensive approach all year, and so I would assume this will continue to be a priority in the offseason.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

One major issue with Duran right now is plate discipline. He can't lay off the high fastball, he can't seem to recognize it. He will be a bust if he doesn't begin recognizing that pitch and laying off it.

[notin]

One major issue with Duran right now is plate discipline. He can't lay off the high fastball, he can't seem to recognize it. He will be a bust if he doesn't begin recognizing that pitch and laying off it.

 

He must have attended the same hitting school as Chavis…

[mvp 78]

One major issue with Duran right now is plate discipline. He can't lay off the high fastball, he can't seem to recognize it. He will be a bust if he doesn't begin recognizing that pitch and laying off it.

 

I think he needs to be given a much longer leash before he's declared a bust. He's still a top 25 prospect.

[notin]

I think he needs to be given a much longer leash before he's declared a bust. He's still a top 25 prospect.

 

I agree. I think he needs at least 85 plate appearances before we label him a success or bust…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is his stance all that different from Verdugo and Bellinger?

 

Hopefully, Duran can learn to adjust like Verdugo, taking different swings in at bats, depending on the count and location. I know Bellinger was an MVP, but to me, with that wild uppercut, he's always been an all-or-nothing sort (and has regressed this year to rookie K rates).

 

'21 K rate: Verdugo 14.7% (career 15.4%), Belly 27.8% (career 26.6%)... Duran 38.1% (yow).

[jacksonianmarch]

This suggests that just moving the mound back might not be enough? Is it the amount of time that it takes for a 98mph to get to the plate? or the difficulty of picking up something moving that fast?

 

Moving the mound back would help tremendously

[Bellhorn04]

Moving the mound back would help tremendously

 

And Rob Manfred would do it gladly...

[a700hitter]

I've had only one exposure to 95+ pitching and it was as a spectator. Here's my take experience.

 

Back before the days of the Super Regionals UMaine was hosting the Northeast regional and since it was only an hour's drive away my son and I spent a couple of days there. Umaine was playing along with Villanova and several other teams in the tourney at at one point the PA guy said, "Now pitching for Villanova, Bill Bliss", and the scouts rushed to their radar guns to watch him pitch.

 

Thinking that Bliss might be something special my son and I took seats in the first row behind home plate but slightly off to one side where we could see the ball coming to the plate. I found that I could follow the ball until it was about half way to the plate and after that it became a blur about a foot long. After Bliss' inning I went to one of the scouts (one of the great things about UMaine back then was that you could talk with ANYBODY!). I asked how fast they had Bliss on the gun and he said between 94 - 96 mph.

I then did a little research and learned that the human eye doesn't move in a sweeping direction, it moves it steps. Very quick steps, but steps nontheless- and it can't catch up with the ball at about 94+.

 

That gave me a whole new appreciation for those hitters who can make contact with the 100 mph pitches, not only for the bat quickness to hit the ball but also just to see the ball.

 

That's my experience... yours may differ.

 

And BTW, I still want to be included the day you pay off that bet to Bell. :-)

I have heard stories where hitters lose sight of the ball for part of the path of the pitch.

[moonslav59]

I'd take it even one step further, is Schwarber really not playing 1B because he's not ready and the Sox thought he would be by now? Or are they just not playing him there yet? He's only been in the lineup for days, and Dalbec had been hitting, and we know how Cora likes to rotate guys and go L/R/L/R etc.

 

I think the plan was to have Schwarber play 1B vs most RHPs starting around August 7th to 10th.

 

The groin injury set that timetable back and may prevent him from playing 1B for a long while, if ever. Plus, if Dalbec hits well enough, that may play into it.

 

I don't think they said to themselves, "We are balancing the now with the future and will just leave 1B as it is and roll the dice- hoping Dalbec rebounds and the future is the top priority.

 

I really think they feel they addressed the 1B issue by trading for Schwarber. People can call that a mistake, but it wasn't neglect of the issue.

[mvp 78]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

 

He's not great on pitches up, but he has a lot of swing and miss on pitches down and out of the zone. He has a 50% whiff rate on breaking balls (curveballs/sliders).

[moonslav59]

Hopefully, Duran can learn to adjust like Verdugo, taking different swings in at bats, depending on the count and location. I know Bellinger was an MVP, but to me, with that wild uppercut, he's always been an all-or-nothing sort (and has regressed this year to rookie K rates).

 

'21 K rate: Verdugo 14.7% (career 15.4%), Belly 27.8% (career 26.6%)... Duran 38.1% (yow).

 

All players adjust, at some point. I'd like to see some other payer's K rates after 85 PAs and what they are now.

[Kimmi]

And what if this offseason is underwhelming too? Bloom getting a pass again? Just blame ownership?

 

Things will be different this offseason. Less underwhelming. I am guessing we will be over the luxury tax limit next year if there are deals that make sense. That said, don't expect a Dombrowski type offseason.

[Kimmi]

I'm not much on the blame game, but aren't all the posts about Bloom's fiscal handcuffs total conjecture? All we know for sure are what he refers to as his own imposed fiscal restraint, with an aim at sustaining the future. People can debate whether Merloni is a bitter ex-jock or a rational ex-jock, but is it so hard to believe him when he says Sox players on the current roster could care even less about future Boston teams than old fans who aren't so sure they'll still be around to cheer or jeer?

 

I believe that the players care more about winning this year than they do about long term sustainability. Of course, that goes along with the idea of how easy it is to spend other people's money. As the owner and the GM, you can't think like that if you want to build a franchise that will contend year in and year out. You just can't.

 

Did the lack of deadline moves deflate the team to the point of collapse? Possibly, but I find that hard to believe based on their consistent resiliency the first half of the season. I think the timing of this poor play with the trade deadline is mere coincidence. The team was due for some regression, just not to this extent. The team is now due for some regression in the positive direction.

 

This is the time where Cora needs to earn his paycheck.

[Kimmi]

I don’t read it that way. It’s not like he admitted they should have made another trade or two- just that they have to take ownership for the results.

 

I’m not sure they’d have done anything different in hindsight except then they’d have known Schwarber was not going to be playing 1B as soon as they expected.

 

Good management is going to take the blame on their own shoulders when things go wrong. They're not going to blame the players.

 

IMO, the FO did the right thing at the deadline. I'm not talking about particular moves, but I'm talking about their overall philosophy. The team is good enough to win as is.

[mvp 78]

Things will be different this offseason. Less underwhelming. I am guessing we will be over the luxury tax limit next year if there are deals that make sense. That said, don't expect a Dombrowski type offseason.

 

So a good offseason, or just less underwhelming?

 

I don't need them to "win" the offseason, just to plug in their current holes.

[mvp 78]

The team is good enough to win as is.

 

They'll have to show it down the stretch. If they don't, then they weren't good enough.

[jacksonianmarch]

What about juicers like Canseco and McGwire. We've seen some pretty big dudes hitting long balls since their day. What about Stanton, he's pretty damn big and muscular.

 

Stanton is built, but wiry and flexible. The juicers had the benefit of quickness from the roids. They were jacked, but they also recovered better and were fast as hell. Big difference vs the humongous monsters who do it naturally

[jacksonianmarch]

Good management is going to take the blame on their own shoulders when things go wrong. They're not going to blame the players.

 

IMO, the FO did the right thing at the deadline. I'm not talking about particular moves, but I'm talking about their overall philosophy. The team is good enough to win as is.

 

I think it’s the other way around. Bloom realized that he built a pumpkin and decided not to mortgage the future for a pumpkin. He’s been proven right