A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

If we had finished with a top 10 defense we would have won what? 97-100 games?

 

It feels like we lost at least 10 games because of our poor D, but 97 is probably right.

[moonslav59]

Any news on JD's ankle?

[mvp 78]

Any news on JD's ankle?

 

He was just working on getting back from an injury to the other ankle too. He was using orthotics on his right ankle to help stabilize his swing. He's now the Billy Buckner of 2021 (in terms of being hobbled).

[harmony]

The AL East is guaranteed to have one team in the American League Championship Series ...

 

... but is guaranteed of having no more than one team in the ALCS.

[mvp 78]

The AL East is guaranteed to have one team in the American League Championship Series ...

 

... but is guaranteed of having no more than one team in the ALCS.

 

Uh, yes.

[Maxbialystock]

If we had finished with a top 10 defense we would have won what? 97-100 games?

 

Great point. Bloom should have dumped those lousy fielding bums like Devers, Bogaerts, JDM, etc, never signed Schwarber, and brought in a bunch of good field, no hit types.

 

Because by golly it’s the fielding that really counts.

[oldtimer]

Great point. Bloom should have dumped those lousy fielding bums like Devers, Bogaerts, JDM, etc, never signed Schwarber, and brought in a bunch of good field, no hit types.

 

Because by golly it’s the fielding that really counts.

 

Or we could aspire to be a team with good hitting, good defense and smart baserunning. The Rays have found a way to do it on a budget. You make it sound like it is either one or the other, which is a misleading statement of the issue.

[moonslav59]

Great point. Bloom should have dumped those lousy fielding bums like Devers, Bogaerts, JDM, etc, never signed Schwarber, and brought in a bunch of good field, no hit types.

 

Because by golly it’s the fielding that really counts.

 

You make a great point, Max, really- you do, but JD is the DH, and playing Devers at 1B and Bogey at 3B or 2B would not change the offense much, depending on who we got to play SS. (Semien > Dalbec)

[notin]

Great point. Bloom should have dumped those lousy fielding bums like Devers, Bogaerts, JDM, etc, never signed Schwarber, and brought in a bunch of good field, no hit types.

 

Because by golly it’s the fielding that really counts.

 

Like Tampa?

[Maxbialystock]

You make a great point, Max, really- you do, but JD is the DH, and playing Devers at 1B and Bogey at 3B or 2B would not change the offense much, depending on who we got to play SS. (Semien > Dalbec)

 

While I agree with Notin's comment that the Rays have figured out to have good fielding and good hitting and that that could very well be what Bloom is hoping to achieve one day, my point is simply that the Sox in the John Henry era have won more WS, 4, than any other MLB team and done it with hitting first, pitching second, and fielding a distant third.

 

Indeed, as I have said before, the Sox have gone out of their way to dump/trade good fielding SS's like Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias. And the best Sox team ever--108 wins in the regular season and 11-3 in the postseason--had the same two guys, Devers at 3b and Bogaerts at SS, we are now complaining about. I might add that this year's leftfielder, Verdugo, has a better DWAR than Benintendi had in 2018, and, an even bigger shocker, Kike has a better DWAR in CF than JBJ had. Mookie Betts was of course much better in RF than Renfroe is, but Renfroe does have more outfield assists. The 2018 second baseman Nunez was wretched in the field, and the bunch of guys who played 1b weren't much better than Dalbec if you go by DWAR's.

 

One more time. I would love to see a Sox team in your proverbial top ten in defense that can also be among the top 3 or 4 in hitting. Chaim Bloom just might be able to pull that off.

 

Meanwhile, it would be nice to see him pick up some better pitchers. Whitlock was a stroke of sheer genius, but Perez ($4.5M), Richards ($10M), and Ottavino ($8M) haven't worked out so well--nor has boosting Barnes's salary for the next 2 years.

 

And yes, I do think Chaim Bloom is the right guy for the job. I'd just like to see better pitching even though you have half-convinced this board that better fielding will solve our pitching problems.

[Maxbialystock]

OPS after All Star Break

.957 Schwarber

.955 Dalbec

.948 Santana (20 AB)

.915 Iggy

.862 Devers

.858 Renfroe

.843 Shaw

.833 Arroyo (16)

.832 Kike

.792 Plawecki

.787 Verduga

.787 JD

.761 Bogey

.660 Vaz

 

OPS v RHP

1.150 Schwarber

.978 Devers

.917 Iggy

.893 Verdugo

.889 JD

.887 Bogey

.843 Shaw

.777 Renfroe

.744 Kike

.730 Dalbec

.710 Vaz

.690 Plawecki

.685 Arroyo

 

vs LHPs

.911 Iggy

.885 Arroyo (had career reverse splits before)

.885 Renfroe

.878 Dalbec

.869 Schwarber

.850 Kike

.826 JD

.818 Bogey

.794 Plawecki

.750 Devers

.555 Vaz

 

 

ERA after ASB (25+ IP)

2.73 Whitlock

3.16 Sale

3.38 Houck

3.60 Robles

3.71 ERod

3.87 Eovaldi

4.80 Richards

4.91 Pivetta

6.48 Barnes

6.48 Ottavino

6.75 Perez

 

 

 

 

A stunning sequence of stats posts.

[Bellhorn04]

While I agree with Notin's comment that the Rays have figured out to have good fielding and good hitting and that that could very well be what Bloom is hoping to achieve one day, my point is simply that the Sox in the John Henry era have won more WS, 4, than any other MLB team and done it with hitting first, pitching second, and fielding a distant third.

 

Indeed, as I have said before, the Sox have gone out of their way to dump/trade good fielding SS's like Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias. And the best Sox team ever--108 wins in the regular season and 11-3 in the postseason--had the same two guys, Devers at 3b and Bogaerts at SS, we are now complaining about. I might add that this year's leftfielder, Verdugo, has a better DWAR than Benintendi had in 2018, and, an even bigger shocker, Kike has a better DWAR in CF than JBJ had. Mookie Betts was of course much better in RF than Renfroe is, but Renfroe does have more outfield assists. The 2018 second baseman Nunez was wretched in the field, and the bunch of guys who played 1b weren't much better than Dalbec if you go by DWAR's.

 

One more time. I would love to see a Sox team in your proverbial top ten in defense that can also be among the top 3 or 4 in hitting. Chaim Bloom just might be able to pull that off.

 

Meanwhile, it would be nice to see him pick up some better pitchers. Whitlock was a stroke of sheer genius, but Perez ($4.5M), Richards ($10M), and Ottavino ($8M) haven't worked out so well--nor has boosting Barnes's salary for the next 2 years.

 

And yes, I do think Chaim Bloom is the right guy for the job. I'd just like to see better pitching even though you have half-convinced this board that better fielding will solve our pitching problems.

 

You're making some good points on this topic, Max.

[Maxbialystock]

So here's an interesting question. Reports are that JDM might not be able to play tonight. Is that good or bad?

 

If you love defense, it's good news because Schwarber can move smoothly into the DH spot, Dalbec to 1b, Arroyo to 2b, and Kike to CF. I think Iglesias is better at 2b, but Arroyo has the better DWAR.

 

And, not to put to fine a point on it, who needs JDM's bat when he is having a downish season?

[jad]

So here's an interesting question. Reports are that JDM might not be able to play tonight. Is that good or bad?

 

If you love defense, it's good news because Schwarber can move smoothly into the DH spot, Dalbec to 1b, Arroyo to 2b, and Kike to CF. I think Iglesias is better at 2b, but Arroyo has the better DWAR.

 

And, not to put to fine a point on it, who needs JDM's bat when he is having a downish season?

 

Iglesias! Right. I forgot about that. The discussion of what constitutes the post-season seemed relevant only from a stats point of view, but it does have a substantial bearing on the games, as he can play tonight, and, win or lose, his season is over.

[Bellhorn04]

So here's an interesting question. Reports are that JDM might not be able to play tonight. Is that good or bad?

 

If you love defense, it's good news because Schwarber can move smoothly into the DH spot, Dalbec to 1b, Arroyo to 2b, and Kike to CF. I think Iglesias is better at 2b, but Arroyo has the better DWAR.

 

And, not to put to fine a point on it, who needs JDM's bat when he is having a downish season?

 

Well, downish season or not, he did have the second-highest OPS on the team, so there's that.

[Bellhorn04]

Iglesias! Right. I forgot about that. The discussion of what constitutes the post-season seemed relevant only from a stats point of view, but it does have a substantial bearing on the games, as he can play tonight, and, win or lose, his season is over.

 

I thought Iggy couldn't play tonight.

[mvp 78]

I thought Iggy couldn't play tonight.

 

He can't.

[mvp 78]

So here's an interesting question. Reports are that JDM might not be able to play tonight. Is that good or bad?

 

If you love defense, it's good news because Schwarber can move smoothly into the DH spot, Dalbec to 1b, Arroyo to 2b, and Kike to CF. I think Iglesias is better at 2b, but Arroyo has the better DWAR.

 

And, not to put to fine a point on it, who needs JDM's bat when he is having a downish season?

 

It's not great, but having Dalbec at 1b and Schwarber at DH isn't terrible. Just need Verdugo to have a solid game and not make any dumb mistakes.

 

Yes, Arroyo will be starting at 2b tonight.

[moonslav59]

 

And, not to put to fine a point on it, who needs JDM's bat when he is having a downish season?

 

His "downish season" was a second best in OPS on the team. He might have beaten out Devers for number one, had Devers not gone nutty in game 162.

 

Also, JD has been getting dome huge hits on the last few games, but who am I to being up recency bias?

 

.908 in his last `6 games (3 HRs).

1.132 in his last 5 games, when we really needed it.

 

[mvp 78]

It's JD's worst full offensive season since 2013. However, he still has the 3rd highest OPS and 4th in WRC+ for Sox regulars. His down season is still preferable to have in the lineup. The real question is that with two bad ankles, could he even play the OF at any point? If not, that really limits how he can help the team going forward.

[moonslav59]

It's JD's worst full offensive season since 2013. However, he still has the 3rd highest OPS and 4th in WRC+ for Sox regulars. His down season is still preferable to have in the lineup. The real question is that with two bad ankles, could he even play the OF at any point? If not, that really limits how he can help the team going forward.

 

He's been our DH mostly, anyway, right?

 

He played OF at the Nats, because there was no DH.

 

He'd DH (just about) every game in the AL playoffs, even with healthy ankles.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It's JD's worst full offensive season since 2013. However, he still has the 3rd highest OPS and 4th in WRC+ for Sox regulars. His down season is still preferable to have in the lineup. The real question is that with two bad ankles, could he even play the OF at any point? If not, that really limits how he can help the team going forward.

 

The only time it would be necessary for JD to stay in the line-up and play the OF would be in the WS. That really is 'going forward.'

[Maxbialystock]

His "downish season" was a second best in OPS on the team. He might have beaten out Devers for number one, had Devers not gone nutty in game 162.

 

Also, JD has been getting dome huge hits on the last few games, but who am I to being up recency bias?

 

.908 in his last `6 games (3 HRs).

1.132 in his last 5 games, when we really needed it.

 

 

Really? Are you saying you would sacrifice defense to get a good bat into the lineup? I pity the pitchers on a team you would manage.

[jad]

I thought Iggy couldn't play tonight.

 

You're right, of course. Brain fart on my part. Somehow I was thinking this was the 'play-in' game, rather than the wild-card game. My bad.

[Maxbialystock]

It's JD's worst full offensive season since 2013. However, he still has the 3rd highest OPS and 4th in WRC+ for Sox regulars. His down season is still preferable to have in the lineup. The real question is that with two bad ankles, could he even play the OF at any point? If not, that really limits how he can help the team going forward.

 

When he is healthy, JDM has a lousy DWAR. So does Schwarber. I am attacking JDM--who very definitely deserves to be defended--simply to make the point that this crap about defense uber alles makes little sense to me.

 

Of course, my opinion doesn't mean much, so let's ask Alex Cora. Mr Manager, you have a hugely important series--the last three games of the season--coming up against a NL team, which means you can't use a DH. Are you going to foolishly, stupidly try to get both JDM and Schwarber into the lineup?

Edited October 5, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

The only time it would be necessary for JD to stay in the line-up and play the OF would be in the WS. That really is 'going forward.'

 

I think JD is better in the OF than Schwarber.

[moonslav59]

I think JD is better in the OF than Schwarber.

 

Maybe, slightly.

 

More injury prone, too.

[Maxbialystock]

Or we could aspire to be a team with good hitting, good defense and smart baserunning. The Rays have found a way to do it on a budget. You make it sound like it is either one or the other, which is a misleading statement of the issue.

 

Actually, I agree the Rays have figured out how to do it all and on a small budget. Wild applause. It also explains why JH hired Chaim Bloom. Maybe that is the future for the Red Sox.

 

That said, the Sox, without Chaim Bloom and without the Rays no doubt brilliant system for acquiring, developing, using, and discarding players, have won four WS series based primarily on hitting and pitching and spending big bucks.

 

I'm all for Chaim Bloom, but find it hard to accept the notion that the Sox have been just plain stupid for the past 20 years. As a matter of fact, I was furious when the Sox dumped not one but two--Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias--excellent defensive SS's and different points in the JH era. But I've made the adjustment and accepted the priorities of hitting first and pitching second.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe, slightly.

 

More injury prone, too.

 

I like that JDM actually likes playing in the OF and that he has a pretty decent arm, which makes him a pretty good fit for LF at Fenway.

[moonslav59]

Actually, I agree the Rays have figured out how to do it all and on a small budget. Wild applause. It also explains why JH hired Chaim Bloom. Maybe that is the future for the Red Sox.

 

That said, the Sox, without Chaim Bloom and without the Rays no doubt brilliant system for acquiring, developing, using, and discarding players, have won four WS series based primarily on hitting and pitching and spending big bucks.

 

I'm all for Chaim Bloom, but find it hard to accept the notion that the Sox have been just plain stupid for the past 20 years. As a matter of fact, I was furious when the Sox dumped not one but two--Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias--excellent defensive SS's and different points in the JH era. But I've made the adjustment and accepted the priorities of hitting first and pitching second.

 

I'm with you on all of this, except maybe the last statement.

 

It's been hitting over defense, but much of our spending budget goes to pitching over hitting.

 

Every ring we've won has been after acquiring a strong second or third starter by FA (Lackey, Price) or trade (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale, Eovaldi).

 

Sure, we paid the Mannys and JDs, too.

 

I also think, we tried to draft players that looked to be good on defense and offense (Betts, JBJ, Vaz, Beni...)