A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

I'm no expert on arbs, but first year arbs are notoriously very lowball.

 

Maybe $7-8M?

 

He's already making $4.575M as arbitration I player. Think of Mookie Betts when he reached A2 and A3.

[Nick]

Enjoyed reading your Lux tax budget for 2022, just didn't want to requote it (save electrons) to make one point. The exclusion of Erod from the Sox future plans has to be taken as a failure at a critical position. I'm sure he will go make an FA deal that doesn't fit the Lux Tax for Boston. With FA starting pitching regularly going for $20-$30MM per pitcher on 3-6 year deals they had better learn how to develop young pitchers as the Rays did under Bloom.

JDM poses a special problem with age coming on, and a premium price tag. He has one shot at a new 3 year contract, after 2022, taking him to retirement . Is he so special that Boston could afford that luxury ?

 

His issue is he's seen as a DH and not as a left fielder. Think of David Ortiz.

[moonslav59]

Enjoyed reading your Lux tax budget for 2022, just didn't want to requote it (save electrons) to make one point. The exclusion of Erod from the Sox future plans has to be taken as a failure at a critical position. I'm sure he will go make an FA deal that doesn't fit the Lux Tax for Boston. With FA starting pitching regularly going for $20-$30MM per pitcher on 3-6 year deals they had better learn how to develop young pitchers as the Rays did under Bloom.

JDM poses a special problem with age coming on, and a premium price tag. He has one shot at a new 3 year contract, after 2022, taking him to retirement . Is he so special that Boston could afford that luxury ?

 

If we have $35 to $55M to spend, this winter, I don't see how we can't replace ERod & Ottavino in kind.

 

If we sign these 4 key free agents

 

SP

SP/RP

Solid Set-up man

Utility man/1B

 

we should not have to skimp with any signing.

 

We could spend $25M on a SP, $11M on another, $8M on a RP'er and $6M on utility and be $12M over the tax line and $8M under the second penalty line.

 

More likely, we spend $20M SP, $10M on P, $5M RP and $5M on utility bringing us to $2M over the line. We'd be able to spend more at the deadline.

 

The other factor working against Bloom's normal Rays strategy of signing quantity (inexpensive) over quality (expensive), is the roster squeeze the Rule 5 players will force on the 40man roster construction choices.

 

I think we sign only 3-5 FAs to ML deals. This seriously hints at quality vs quantity.

[moonslav59]

He's already making $4.575M as arbitration I player. Think of Mookie Betts when he reached A2 and A3.

 

My bad. I wrote "2 of 3" but was thinking his first.

 

Yes, he should make $7-11M- year 2.

[moonslav59]

His issue is he's seen as a DH and not as a left fielder. Think of David Ortiz.

 

He will likely make less AVV but add years.

[Nick]

Okay let's get this right. I've been harping on this for Months.

 

Cot's baseball is my go to link.

 

We are $4.5M under the cap WITHOUT Santana's salary. It used to be that his contract amount was listed as $1.75M or so, but the amount was NOT included in the luxury tax payroll. It was simply left blank.

 

I actually e-mailed them POINTING OUT the error. They did NOT respond, however now they have COMPLETELY delisted Santana from our 40 man roster.

 

Santana signed a major league contract sometime in May.

 

Our gap is LESS THAN $4.5m.

 

STUDY IT, LEARN IT. MEMORIZE IT.

[vegasbob]

Okay let's get this right. I've been harping on this for Months.

 

Cot's baseball is my go to link.

 

We are $4.5M under the cap WITHOUT Santana's salary. It used to be that his contract amount was listed as $1.75M or so, but the amount was NOT included in the luxury tax payroll. It was simply left blank.

 

I actually e-mailed them POINTING OUT the error. They did NOT respond, however now they have COMPLETELY delisted Santana from our 40 man roster.

 

Santana signed a major league contract sometime in May.

 

Our gap is LESS THAN $4.5m.

 

STUDY IT, LEARN IT. MEMORIZE IT.

 

GOT IT, Boss. What's next, I'm ready for work

[moonslav59]

Okay let's get this right. I've been harping on this for Months.

 

Cot's baseball is my go to link.

 

We are $4.5M under the cap WITHOUT Santana's salary. It used to be that his contract amount was listed as $1.75M or so, but the amount was NOT included in the luxury tax payroll. It was simply left blank.

 

I actually e-mailed them POINTING OUT the error. They did NOT respond, however now they have COMPLETELY delisted Santana from our 40 man roster.

 

Santana signed a major league contract sometime in May.

 

Our gap is LESS THAN $4.5m.

 

STUDY IT, LEARN IT. MEMORIZE IT.

 

I think the $1.75M was the ML contract assuming they added him by the opt out date he agreed to extend due to injury.

 

That contract may be pro-rated (1 month minor league- 5 months ML rate).

 

It does look like it is left off the totals, but remember many of these 26th man on the roster players are close to being interchangeable. Adding Santana at $1.75M to replace someone making $580 to $800K is not adding $1.75M to the tax budget. It may only add $1M, not counting the pro-ration.

[moonslav59]

Taking a look at our batting slot OPS, I notice our slots filled by batters named Bogey, Devers and JD look a lot better than they did earlier in the year.

 

Our 3-4-5 slots are unmatched in MLB:

.921 3 slot

.912 4 slot

.875 5 slot

 

Here's the other slots:

.783 2 slot

.763 8 slot

.699 9 slot

.668 6 slot

.603 9 slot

.600 7 slot

 

Our 7-9 slots are at .661.

 

Comps to other AL Leaders

 

Batting Order Slots

# BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK

1 .699 .768 .778 .811 .807

2 .783 .694 .661 .752 .769

3 .921 .599 .811 .779 .809

4 .912 .894 .766 .859 .721

5 .875 .677 .678 .922 .689

6 .668 .671 .857 .868 .772

7 .600 .785 .877 .789 .639

8 .763 .694 .688 .637 .630

9 .603 .603 .703 .602 .579

 

Houston has 2 players under .650 and none between .650 and .695.

Boston has 2 and 1.

The CWS 0 and 3.

OAK 3 and 1.

TBR 2 and 4.

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

5 top starters by GS'd

# BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK

1 127 106 103 121 123

2 115 149 104 142 111

3 108 92 100 148 127

4- 95 98 215 129 92

5- 84 82 185 121 140

 

TBR Glasnow is on 60 day IL

[notin]

Taking a look at our batting slot OPS, I notice our slots filled by batters named Bogey, Devers and JD look a lot better than they did earlier in the year.

 

Our 3-4-5 slots are unmatched in MLB:

.921 3 slot

.912 4 slot

.875 5 slot

 

Here's the other slots:

.783 2 slot

.763 8 slot

.699 9 slot

.668 6 slot

.603 9 slot

.600 7 slot

 

Our 7-9 slots are at .661.

 

Comps to other AL Leaders

 

Batting Order Slots

# BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK

1 .699 .768 .778 .811 .807

2 .783 .694 .661 .752 .769

3 .921 .599 .811 .779 .809

4 .912 .894 .766 .859 .721

5 .875 .677 .678 .922 .689

6 .668 .671 .857 .868 .772

7 .600 .785 .877 .789 .639

8 .763 .694 .688 .637 .630

9 .603 .603 .703 .602 .579

 

Houston has 2 teams under .650 and none between .650 and .695.

Boston has 2 and 1.

The CWS 0 and 3.

OAK 3 and 1.

TBR 2 and 4.

 

 

I was one blogger’s take that the Sox needed a leadoff hitter and should be in and Adam Frazier. While I agree he could upgrade that role, where would he play defensively?

[moonslav59]

I was one blogger’s take that the Sox needed a leadoff hitter and should be in and Adam Frazier. While I agree he could upgrade that role, where would he play defensively?

 

I guess they must think Arroyo needs replacing.

 

It's too complex to move Kike to 1B, so Frazier can play OF.

[moonslav59]

I think we may make 2 deals before the deadline, but maybe one is all we do. 3 is a stretch, but these are the 3 highest areas of need:

 

Pitching

Pitching

Pitching or defense

 

Okay, maybe SP, RP'er and a utility guy who can play 1B (LH'd batter).

 

2 of these pitchers are demoted, traded or DFA'd, and the other is when Sale is ready:

 

Rios

Workman

Andriese

 

Santana/Chavis is replaced by a LH'd hitting 1Bman/Utility player.

 

The other consideration is the budget.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Would hang’em Chaim be interested in trading for berrios?

[iortiz]

I would like to see Dalbec play more but if they bring someone like Santana or Aguilar, I won’t complain.

[moonslav59]

I would like to see Dalbec play more but if they bring someone like Santana or Aguilar, I won’t complain.

 

If it's at the expense of not getting good pitching, I'll complain.

[moonslav59]

Would hang’em Chaim be interested in trading for berrios?

 

Berrios would be a great addition, and the extra year of control makes it nicer, but it's still only 1.3 seasons.

 

He will cost a lot to get in terms of return players going to MN. His Lux tax hit is only about $2.1M, so that's a big plus for the Sox.

 

BTV has his value at 40.8.

 

A somewhat equal return might be...

 

A. Casas 47.7

B. Duran 44.5

C. Downs 20.0+ Jimenez 10.8 + Mata 9.9

D. Downs 20.0+ Mata 9.9, R Hernandez 6.8 & Groome 4.3

 

[iortiz]

If it's at the expense of not getting good pitching, I'll complain.

 

Maybe Bloom is looking for a SP as well or maybe he is thinking in Sale and Houk as enough potential additions.

[iortiz]

Will be very interesting to see how Bloom is going to address our issues.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Bloom is looking for a SP as well or maybe he is thinking in Sale and Houk as enough potential additions.

 

I don't think Bloom trades anything really promising. I'm expecting we stay under the tax line and don't trade top prospects.

 

We may not even trade anyone Bloom thinks is odds on to make the 40 man roster, next year, so that may only leave guys like Chavis, Potts, Rosaro and Ward to deal, but look what we got for Beeks and Espinal in 2018.

 

Since I don't see us doing anything major, I think going pitching makes more sense.

 

We have 4 replaceable 26 man roster slots and 3 are pitchers. (Santana/Chavis, Rios, Workman & Andriese)

 

Sale & Houck might take 2 (emphasis on MIGHT), but that still leaves one pitching slot open.

[moonslav59]

Will be very interesting to see how Bloom is going to address our issues.

 

Yes, indeed. I really trust his plan.

[Tedballgame]

Don't expect to see Barnes for a few days after all those pitches in the all-star game (

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Thinking outside the box: the Red Sox don't trade for a starting pitcher. Instead, the Red Sox would stretch out G.Whitlock and he would enter the rotation. The playoff rotation would look like this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

 

The trade deadline plan could be: don't trade for a starter, stretch out Whitlock, trade for a relief arm and a starting 1b.

 

With the exception of Jose Berrios, the other trade market starting pitchers are far from ideal. I even have my doubts about Kyle Gibson. Do the Red Sox want to count on Danny Duffy in a must-win playoff game? Clearly, trading for Jose Berrios would be the best move, but he will also cost a ton in prospects and other teams will attempt to acquire him as well. If the Red Sox can't work out a Berrios deal, would moving Whitlock to the rotation be the next best alternative?

[oldtimer]

I don't think Bloom trades anything really promising. I'm expecting we stay under the tax line and don't trade top prospects.

 

We may not even trade anyone Bloom thinks is odds on to make the 40 man roster, next year, so that may only leave guys like Chavis, Potts, Rosaro and Ward to deal, but look what we got for Beeks and Espinal in 2018.

 

Since I don't see us doing anything major, I think going pitching makes more sense.

 

We have 4 replaceable 26 man roster slots and 3 are pitchers. (Santana/Chavis, Rios, Workman & Andriese)

 

Sale & Houck might take 2 (emphasis on MIGHT), but that still leaves one pitching slot open.

and help, but nothing is sure

 

I'm more optimistic about Rios as he has a very good arm with his biggest drawback being command. The other 4 you mention should all be expendable. Let's hope Sale will come back but nothing is sure about his impact. Houck is coming back from injury and is a also question mark. as well. Our problems looked more like the centered on starting pitching so Bloom has a major challenge. I like his approach and expect him to continue to make smart decisions.

[Nick]

and help, but nothing is sure

 

I'm more optimistic about Rios as he has a very good arm with his biggest drawback being command. The other 4 you mention should all be expendable. Let's hope Sale will come back but nothing is sure about his impact. Houck is coming back from injury and is a also question mark. as well. Our problems looked more like the centered on starting pitching so Bloom has a major challenge. I like his approach and expect him to continue to make smart decisions.

 

Houck has started 3 or 4 times since returning from his injury. All is well with him it appears....

[Nick]

Taking a look at our batting slot OPS, I notice our slots filled by batters named Bogey, Devers and JD look a lot better than they did earlier in the year.

 

Our 3-4-5 slots are unmatched in MLB:

.921 3 slot

.912 4 slot

.875 5 slot

 

Here's the other slots:

.783 2 slot

.763 8 slot

.699 9 slot

.668 6 slot

.603 9 slot

.600 7 slot

 

Our 7-9 slots are at .661.

 

Comps to other AL Leaders

 

Batting Order Slots

# BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK

1 .699 .768 .778 .811 .807

2 .783 .694 .661 .752 .769

3 .921 .599 .811 .779 .809

4 .912 .894 .766 .859 .721

5 .875 .677 .678 .922 .689

6 .668 .671 .857 .868 .772

7 .600 .785 .877 .789 .639

8 .763 .694 .688 .637 .630

9 .603 .603 .703 .602 .579

 

Houston has 2 players under .650 and none between .650 and .695.

Boston has 2 and 1.

The CWS 0 and 3.

OAK 3 and 1.

TBR 2 and 4.

 

 

This is really a good table to look at.

 

For those struggling, I'd ask Cora to bat me 8th, I believe we lead the majors for that slot.

[oldtimer]

This is really a good table to look at.

 

For those struggling, I'd ask Cora to bat me 8th, I believe we lead the majors for that slot.

 

Since Kike has come alive, the #1 spot in the order has gotten into much better shape.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck has started 3 or 4 times since returning from his injury. All is well with him it appears....

 

Unfortunately he was really bad last time out. Need to see some more strong outings from him.

[Bellhorn04]

Thinking outside the box: the Red Sox don't trade for a starting pitcher. Instead, the Red Sox would stretch out G.Whitlock and he would enter the rotation. The playoff rotation would look like this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

 

The trade deadline plan could be: don't trade for a starter, stretch out Whitlock, trade for a relief arm and a starting 1b.

 

Since May 13, the most pitches Whitlock has thrown in a game is 36.

 

It looks like they plan to keep him in the bullpen all the way this year.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't extend JD Martinez. If he opts out, the Red Sox will have plenty of options to replace him with a younger player: Semien (not a DH, but you could rotate infielders to give everyone rest), Bryant, Schwarber. If those players don't interest you, the Red Sox could always bring back Pablo Sandoval.

 

It depends on what the extension is. The JD deal was a really good deal, mostly because of the original length of the contract. (Thanks Dave!) I would hate for the Sox to now go and turn it into a bad deal by extending him to too many additional years, not that I think Bloom would do that.

 

I really don't think JD will opt out though.