A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I’m not sure I’d call Yorke a better prospect just yet. I like Downs much better in the field, and he’s still fairly young for AAA, much more advanced than Yorke.

 

I think Downs will be knocking on the door next year, he’s going to be MLB ready sooner than Yorke at a position we need to fill.

 

Now. I think Downs is expendable in the right trade, anyone is and if Yorke keeps up his level of play he’s going to start shooting up the prospect rankings.

 

Why is Downs expendable?

 

He plays SS and may end up at 2B.

 

He's likely ML ready next summer or 2023, which happens to be when Bogey might opt out.

 

Arroyo looks like a keeper, but let's not forget he's about 90 PAs from being 9th on this year's team in PAs (163).

 

Does anyone really think he has locked down the 2B job for the next 3 years of team control? I'd like to think yes, but keeping Downs a bit longer makes sense.

 

Also, what has Yorke done, except to be drafted high?

[moonslav59]

The Sox position so far seems to be “Duran needs to play every day.” For that to happen in Boston, that would require an injury or a starter being traded (which isn’t very likely).

 

Just because many people feel that Duran will be treated this way largely because most top prospects are doesn’t make them “anti-Duran.” There are several prospects ranked above him also not getting called up…

 

There's also players hitting better not being called up, and saying that is not Duran-bashing.

[moonslav59]

We go into the ASB essentially tied for the best AL record with HOU & CWS.

 

TBR is 1.5 back

Oak 3.5 and the last WC entry

 

SEA is 3 GB OAK

CLE, NYY & TOR 4.5

LAA 6.0

 

The rest are out.

 

The Yanks are 8 behind the Sox. Let that sink in.

 

What a way to impress Sox fans!

[Maxbialystock]

You sure do seem to be anti Duran. even the front office talks of him as the future Sox center fielder. I fully believe he will be called up after the AS break, even though there is no glaring need for him. At 24 he is either ready or he never will be. One way to find out and that is to activate him.

 

moonslav is far from anti-Duran, so let me be that guy. Here's an extract from the SoxProspects summary on Duran: "Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder."

 

I would not call that a ringing endorsement. And I'll take Rike over Duran every day and twice on Sundays.

[Maxbialystock]

About making a deal. I suppose another bullpen arm would be nice, but right now I'm starting to think the rotation is the weak link, even with Sale just around the corner. The problem is, everyone wants another good starter, and me, I would rather not give up a bunch of good prospects for just one player.

[notin]

About making a deal. I suppose another bullpen arm would be nice, but right now I'm starting to think the rotation is the weak link, even with Sale just around the corner. The problem is, everyone wants another good starter, and me, I would rather not give up a bunch of good prospects for just one player.

 

The rental market looks pretty thin, too. Unless you like Jon Gray or Chris Archer...

[moonslav59]

The rental market looks pretty thin, too. Unless you like Jon Gray or Chris Archer...

 

Is Duffy healthy?

 

How about...

Anderson (PIT)?

Gibson (TEX)?

Berrios (MN)?

Boyd (DET)?

[moonslav59]

moonslav is far from anti-Duran, so let me be that guy. Here's an extract from the SoxProspects summary on Duran: "Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder."

 

I would not call that a ringing endorsement. And I'll take Rike over Duran every day and twice on Sundays.

 

Thanks Max. I really do like Duran, and I think as much or more than many do.

 

I trust Bloom & Cora- maybe too much.

 

I was a huge Devers fan from when he was in the Gulf Coast League. I rated him higher than soxprospects year after year. When the debate came about calling him up and once he was called up about whether it was too soon or too late or a panic move, I said the same thing: "When Sox management thinks he's ready, then that is when we should trust him to be ready."

 

I'm not sure why anyone thinks they know better. That's not to say mistakes can be made, or that opinions should not be aired, but thinking Duran should be called up in 3 days does NOT mean you like him more than anyone else. If Bloom thinks he's ready in 3 days, I do, too. If he thinks September is best, I do, too.

 

[Hugh2]

Why is Downs expendable?

 

He plays SS and may end up at 2B.

 

He's likely ML ready next summer or 2023, which happens to be when Bogey might opt out.

 

Arroyo looks like a keeper, but let's not forget he's about 90 PAs from being 9th on this year's team in PAs (163).

 

Does anyone really think he has locked down the 2B job for the next 3 years of team control? I'd like to think yes, but keeping Downs a bit longer makes sense.

 

Also, what has Yorke done, except to be drafted high?

 

Anyone is expendable at the right price. I like Downs, he plays all facets of the game well. I hope he fills in at SS soon. I think he’s ahead of Yorke right now.

 

Yorke, has been hitting VERY well down on the farm.

[oldtimer]

About making a deal. I suppose another bullpen arm would be nice, but right now I'm starting to think the rotation is the weak link, even with Sale just around the corner. The problem is, everyone wants another good starter, and me, I would rather not give up a bunch of good prospects for just one player.

 

The starting rotation has shown weakness over the past week. We could improve there with a trade, but the problem is that we would have to exceed the CBT to get any significant help. I don't think the Sox are willing to do that in 2021 so Sale is likely our only SP addition with Houck being a more distant possibility as well. For the 2022 season, we will lose the contract cost of Pedroia and Benintendi for roughly $15 mil in savings and several current players will not be renewed for about $3.5 million in additional savings. It will be the 2023 season before we are rid of the Price impact of $16 million.

staqaff

Assuming we will be willing to exceed the CBT, we should be n a position to go after a quality SP for 2022. If one or more of our current SP stall leaves for 2022, then we will have additional money to apply to look for a second quality starter.

[Nick]

The starting rotation has shown weakness over the past week. We could improve there with a trade, but the problem is that we would have to exceed the CBT to get any significant help. I don't think the Sox are willing to do that in 2021 so Sale is likely our only SP addition with Houck being a more distant possibility as well. For the 2022 season, we will lose the contract cost of Pedroia and Benintendi for roughly $15 mil in savings and several current players will not be renewed for about $3.5 million in additional savings. It will be the 2023 season before we are rid of the Price impact of $16 million.

staqaff

Assuming we will be willing to exceed the CBT, we should be n a position to go after a quality SP for 2022. If one or more of our current SP stall leaves for 2022, then we will have additional money to apply to look for a second quality starter.

 

$10M comes off for Richards and $7.25M for Ottavino. We maybe able to do without Richards if Sale comes through and or not pick up Perez' $6M option and keep Richards.

 

If we decide to convert Whitlock as many think we will (Sox have also expressed this) then we can get rid of both Perez and Richards.

[moonslav59]

Anyone is expendable at the right price. I like Downs, he plays all facets of the game well. I hope he fills in at SS soon. I think he’s ahead of Yorke right now.

 

Yorke, has been hitting VERY well down on the farm.

 

Yes, Yorke has been hot at Salem. My bad.

[moonslav59]

The starting rotation has shown weakness over the past week. We could improve there with a trade, but the problem is that we would have to exceed the CBT to get any significant help. I don't think the Sox are willing to do that in 2021 so Sale is likely our only SP addition with Houck being a more distant possibility as well. For the 2022 season, we will lose the contract cost of Pedroia and Benintendi for roughly $15 mil in savings and several current players will not be renewed for about $3.5 million in additional savings. It will be the 2023 season before we are rid of the Price impact of $16 million.

staqaff

Assuming we will be willing to exceed the CBT, we should be n a position to go after a quality SP for 2022. If one or more of our current SP stall leaves for 2022, then we will have additional money to apply to look for a second quality starter.

 

If we can go $19M over the tax line, we'll have enough to sign 2-3 excellent players- maybe a SP'er, top set-up man and someone else (RP, SP, ???)

 

I could see us signing one of the older SP'ers on the market due to a shoter term deal and less long term risk. (Verlander/ Greinke)

 

Maybe we bring Ottavino back as well as another very good closer/set up man like Archie Bradley or Raisel Iglesias.

 

Let's assume we sign Verlander, Ottavino & Iglesias... (+ Moreland)

 

Sale, Velander, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock

Barnes, Iglesias, Ottavino, Houck, Perez, Sawamura, DHern, Taylor

Vaz, Plawecki

Dalbec, Moreland

Arroyo

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo, Cordero

Kike, Duran

Renfroe

JD

 

Rest of the 40:

Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Winckowski, Ward

Brasier, Bazardo, Valdez

Ronaldo Hernandez, Wong

Downs

Jimenez, Rosario

 

1 from Potts, Arauz, Wilson, German, Scherff, T Reed, Ort, Cottam

 

Rule 5

Edited July 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Berrios (MN)

 

I forgot about Berrios. For me, he should be trade target #1 for the Red Sox. He is younger than Gibson.

 

For Berrios, the Red Sox should be willing to up the ante and offer such prospects as Downs, Bello, or Jimenez.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[oldtimer]

If we can go $19M over the tax line, we'll have enough to sign 2-3 excellent players- maybe a SP'er, top set-up man and someone else (RP, SP, ???)

 

I could see us signing one of the older SP'ers on the market due to a shoter term deal and less long term risk. (Verlander/ Greinke)

 

Maybe we bring Ottavino back as well as another very good closer/set up man like Archie Bradley or Raisel Iglesias.

 

Let's assume we sign Verlander, Ottavino & Iglesias... (+ Moreland)

 

Sale, Velander, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock

Barnes, Iglesias, Ottavino, Houck, Perez, Sawamura, DHern, Taylor

Vaz, Plawecki

Dalbec, Moreland

Arroyo

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo, Cordero

Kike, Duran

Renfroe

JD

 

Rest of the 40:

Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Winckowski, Ward

Brasier, Bazardo, Valdez

Ronaldo Hernandez, Wong

Downs

Jimenez, Rosario

 

1 from Potts, Arauz, Wilson, German, Scherff, T Reed, Ort, Cottam

 

Be nice to get another top catching prospect in the mix. Not sure about Wong's hitting or Hernandez 's defense and Vaz is getting up there.

[notin]

Is Duffy healthy?

 

How about...

Anderson (PIT)?

Gibson (TEX)?

Berrios (MN)?

Boyd (DET)?

 

Other than Berrios, they're basically in the same category. And the word to date is Berrios will cost a haul...

[notin]

I forgot about Berrios. For me, he should be trade target #1 for the Red Sox. He is younger than Gibson.

 

For Berrios, the Red Sox should be willing to up the ante and offer such prospects as Downs, Bello, or Jimenez.

 

If they insist on Duran, do you pull the trigger?

[notin]

Why is Downs expendable?

 

He plays SS and may end up at 2B.

 

He's likely ML ready next summer or 2023, which happens to be when Bogey might opt out.

 

Arroyo looks like a keeper, but let's not forget he's about 90 PAs from being 9th on this year's team in PAs (163).

 

Does anyone really think he has locked down the 2B job for the next 3 years of team control? I'd like to think yes, but keeping Downs a bit longer makes sense.

 

Also, what has Yorke done, except to be drafted high?

 

To be fair, he said Downs is expendable in the right deal. And he is, in the right deal...

[mvp 78]

Yes, Yorke has been hot at Salem. My bad.

 

He started off slow, but really picked it up after the first month. Not surprising for a HS player who hadn't played in a meaningful game in a year and a half.

[mvp 78]

If they insist on Duran, do you pull the trigger?

 

Not for a year and a half of control

[notin]

Not for a year and a half of control

 

I think it's a tough call, but for Berrios, you probably have to give up something you're uncomfortable giving up...

[mvp 78]

I think it's a tough call, but for Berrios, you probably have to give up something you're uncomfortable giving up...

 

Not enough control to put in Duran. It'd have to be a guy like Jimenez IMO.

[notin]

Not enough control to put in Duran. It'd have to be a guy like Jimenez IMO.

 

Reportedly the price for Berrios is very high. If it’s Duran, we’ll have to see if Bloom walks. But it’s likely he does.

 

It’s also very possible that the price for Berrios has to include Duran. But as Thad Levine doesn’t return my texts, I will probably never know…

[Nick]

This is the baseball operation that thinks Andriese should be given more time to work out of his issues despite his performance over the last two and half months.

 

If nothing else, Bloom is patient and cautious.

 

I doubt we'll give up on any of our young players. Surely not our #1 high school pick from year ago or a centerfielder that Bloom said has "chance to be great." No Moon, he absolutely does not say that about ANYBODY. He was not prompted to say it. He could have said he's good. NO, HE WENT OUT OF HIS WAY TO SAY HE HAS CHANCE TO BE GREAT. I just want to be accurate. We should all listen to what the MAN says. He may not say much, but when he says something, I pay attention. Same with Cora.

 

As management has stated, Chris Sale is the best GET for the Sox in July trade deadline. And he costs us NOTHING.

 

Time to be patient with Dalbec is over. Get a platoon partner for him. Drop Santana. His 2019 production must been a fluke.

 

Really need Tanner to return. I'm sure they want to stretch him just in case one of the starters fail or gets hurt. He can help in the pen at some point soon.

 

Not sure when Brasier will return. We probably need another reliable reliever at minimum.

[mvp 78]

Reportedly the price for Berrios is very high. If it’s Duran, we’ll have to see if Bloom walks. But it’s likely he does.

 

It’s also very possible that the price for Berrios has to include Duran. But as Thad Levine doesn’t return my texts, I will probably never know…

 

If that's the price, I'm out. Unless they believe Duran's numbers are inflated by the Worcester launching pad.

[notin]

Per BTV - and their model seems to work more often than not - Berrios has a surplus value of 40.8. Duran has a surplus value of 44.5. A straight up trade is accepted on that site. To package a deal around Downs (20), the Sox would also need to include Jimenez (10.8) and Houck (10.5). Mata (9.9) could replace Houck, but I think his current health status makes him a lot less desirable…

[mvp 78]

This is the baseball operation that thinks Andriese should be given more time to work out of his issues despite his performance over the last two and half months.

 

If nothing else, Bloom is patient and cautious.

 

I doubt we'll give up on any of our young players. Surely not our #1 high school pick from year ago or a centerfielder that Bloom said has "chance to be great." No Moon, he absolutely does not say that about ANYBODY. He was not prompted to say it. He could have said he's good. NO, HE WENT OUT OF HIS WAY TO SAY HE HAS CHANCE TO BE GREAT. I just want to be accurate. We should all listen to what the MAN says. He may not say much, but when he says something, I pay attention. Same with Cora.

 

As management has stated, Chris Sale is the best GET for the Sox in July trade deadline. And he costs us NOTHING.

 

Time to be patient with Dalbec is over. Get a platoon partner for him. Drop Santana. His 2019 production must been a fluke.

 

Really need Tanner to return. I'm sure they want to stretch him just in case one of the starters fail or gets hurt. He can help in the pen at some point soon.

 

Not sure when Brasier will return. We probably need another reliable reliever at minimum.

 

I agree on Sale, Santana and Dalbec. I'm not really sure where they are at with Houck. The bullpen has been pretty good. Not sure they need to break the bank there.

[notin]

If that's the price, I'm out. Unless they believe Duran's numbers are inflated by the Worcester launching pad.

 

The thing about Duran that bothers me is every time he has a good season, there seems to be some reason not related to his skillset. In A ball, his numbers were inflated by ridiculous BABIP. In AAA, Polar Park could be a big factor.

 

On the other hand, he has launched up the rankings unlike some of his teammates, most notably Wilson who has similar numbers and age, and that means scouts actually watching him play are impressed by something not on his stat page. So there are reasons to both doubt and have faith in him in my eyes…

[Nick]

The thing about Duran that bothers me is every time he has a good season, there seems to be some reason not related to his skillset. In A ball, his numbers were inflated by ridiculous BABIP. In AAA, Polar Park could be a big factor.

 

On the other hand, he has launched up the rankings unlike some of his teammates, most notably Wilson who has similar numbers and age, and that means scouts actually watching him play are impressed by something not on his stat page. So there are reasons to both doubt and have faith in him in my eyes…

 

I'm hoping that he's not the same player he used to be......thus the optimism from Bloom.

[mvp 78]

The thing about Duran that bothers me is every time he has a good season, there seems to be some reason not related to his skillset. In A ball, his numbers were inflated by ridiculous BABIP. In AAA, Polar Park could be a big factor.

 

On the other hand, he has launched up the rankings unlike some of his teammates, most notably Wilson who has similar numbers and age, and that means scouts actually watching him play are impressed by something not on his stat page. So there are reasons to both doubt and have faith in him in my eyes…

 

His skillset in A ball was to get the ball in play and use his blazing speed to get on base. This is similar to how Jimenez is right now. It is a skillset, but one that doesn't translate to MLB.

 

If the power is real and he can keep the k% in check (big question), he should be fine in MLB. If his glove was a finished product may there'd be less hesitation.