A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I like the discussion on Berrios, not because Bloom has to go after him, but because a starter at this juncture makes the most sense. Yes, absolutely, Sale will help the rotation. The problem is that Pivetta, Perez, ERod, and especially Richards have been inconsistent, and I'm guessing that the Commish's dictum about foreign substances has affected more than Richards. The rotation is THE reason the Sox team ERA is 7th in the AL.

 

The bullpen looks pretty decent. The defense is somewhat problematical but no easy fix there. Besides, the biggest problem, Bogaerts, is vital on offense.

 

And the hitting overall is pretty good: 2d in the AL in runs scored and 3d in OPS. I'm not a Dalbec fan, but don't understand why he is targeted as a total disaster when he is tied for 5th on the team in rbi's despite getting the fewest at bats among the regulars. Plus one slot in the lineup does not make or break that lineup. I do not see Cordero platooning with him as a good fix.

 

As for Duran, I think the clamor for him is completely in tune with talksox annual fixation on bringing up new faces from the minors. The Sox, if Verdugo can get his head out of his ass, have a pretty good outfield so far. Nowhere near Betts, JBJ, and Beni on the 2018 WS team, but better than expected. Duran just might be a good MLB hitter, but that is unproven, and his defense, despite his speed, is well below that of the current threesome of Verdugo, Hernandez, and Renfroe.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

This is the baseball operation that thinks Andriese should be given more time to work out of his issues despite his performance over the last two and half months.

 

If nothing else, Bloom is patient and cautious.

 

I doubt we'll give up on any of our young players. Surely not our #1 high school pick from year ago or a centerfielder that Bloom said has "chance to be great." No Moon, he absolutely does not say that about ANYBODY. He was not prompted to say it. He could have said he's good. NO, HE WENT OUT OF HIS WAY TO SAY HE HAS CHANCE TO BE GREAT. I just want to be accurate. We should all listen to what the MAN says. He may not say much, but when he says something, I pay attention. Same with Cora.

 

As management has stated, Chris Sale is the best GET for the Sox in July trade deadline. And he costs us NOTHING.

 

Time to be patient with Dalbec is over. Get a platoon partner for him. Drop Santana. His 2019 production must been a fluke.

 

Really need Tanner to return. I'm sure they want to stretch him just in case one of the starters fail or gets hurt. He can help in the pen at some point soon.

 

Not sure when Brasier will return. We probably need another reliable reliever at minimum.

 

Sounds like patience is no longer a virtue.

 

I'm glad they had it with Renfroe. I could create a much longer list.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Bloom is even looking at anyone who would cost him Duran, Down, Casas and maybe more, unless he does not value one as much as the other GM does.

 

Trading for someone with one more year of control- not a 2 month rental- sounds nice, but I think Bloom is looking longer term.

 

He'll make a deal or two that costs us no top prospect. Maybe someone he knows he will not be able to protect for rule 5 (Ward, German, Scherff, Winckowski...?)

 

We were able to get Eovaldi and Pearce without trading a top prospect in 2018. I think that is the type of deal Bloom is looking for.

[moonslav59]

I'm not a Dalbec fan, but don't understand why he is targeted as a total disaster when he is tied for 5th on the team in rbi's despite getting the fewest at bats among the regulars. - Max

 

People identify the weakest link and obsess over improving that slot.

 

If we replace Dalbec, they'll move onto the next guy and repeat forever.

[mvp 78]

I'm not a Dalbec fan, but don't understand why he is targeted as a total disaster when he is tied for 5th on the team in rbi's despite getting the fewest at bats among the regulars. - Max

 

People identify the weakest link and obsess over improving that slot.

 

If we replace Dalbec, they'll move onto the next guy and repeat forever.

 

Dalbec isn't the weakest link though. Right now, it's Santana. I think there is reason for concern with Dalbec though. You can't have a starting 1B hit like this.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If they insist on Duran, do you pull the trigger?

 

No. I like his Duran's speed & power combination too much, and he is too close to the majors.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec isn't the weakest link though. Right now, it's Santana. I think there is reason for concern with Dalbec though. You can't have a starting 1B hit like this.

 

Santana is only the weakest link if the Sox play him a lot, which they are not doing. Right now he's suspiciously on the IL. Andriese is also out of the picture for now.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec isn't the weakest link though. Right now, it's Santana. I think there is reason for concern with Dalbec though. You can't have a starting 1B hit like this.

 

I should have clarified by saying weakest starter.

 

Replacing Santana is not going to shake things up, too much, unless the guy we get replaces a starter.

 

(I also didn't mention Andriese/Rios/Workman, but when you go with 13 pitchers, I'm not sure how much they can hurt the team.)

 

Also, I am not for replacing Dalbec, right now. It's a close call, and an argument for a platoon is stronger, but we may know more by July 30th.

[moonslav59]

Santana is only the weakest link if the Sox play him a lot, which they are not doing. Right now he's suspiciously on the IL. Andriese is also out of the picture for now.

 

Change the wording from Santana to Santana/Chavis.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think there is reason for concern with Dalbec though. You can't have a starting 1B hit like this.

 

When you're trying to win a championship you can't have a starting 1b hit like this, his OPS+ is 79.

 

The amazing thing about Dalbec is his HR total, he has 10 HR so far and is on pace to hit 20 HR. And this is a guy who is supposed to be a HR hitter. Obviously, Dalbec's hit tool is so poor that it is affecting his lousy HR output.

[mvp 78]

I should have clarified by saying weakest starter.

 

Replacing Santana is not going to shake things up, too much, unless the guy we get replaces a starter.

 

(I also didn't mention Andriese/Rios/Workman, but when you go with 13 pitchers, I'm not sure how much they can hurt the team.)

 

Also, I am not for replacing Dalbec, right now. It's a close call, and an argument for a platoon is stronger, but we may know more by July 30th.

 

I think they should find a LHB with a decent glove at 1B. Worked well for the 04 team.

[Maxbialystock]

I think they should find a LHB with a decent glove at 1B. Worked well for the 04 team.

 

Dalbec is far from the Sox biggest problem in a season when every team has at least one hitter in the lineup who is below par.

 

Defense is a bigger problem, but with no easy fix.

 

And lately the rotation, with everyone except Eovaldi looking very inconsistent, looks like the biggest problem.

[mvp 78]

When you're trying to win a championship you can't have a starting 1b hit like this, his OPS+ is 79.

 

The amazing thing about Dalbec is his HR total, he has 10 HR so far and is on pace to hit 20 HR. And this is a guy who is supposed to be a HR hitter. Obviously, Dalbec's hit tool is so poor that it is affecting his lousy HR output.

 

His career WRC+ is now at 97. His torrid short sample from last year skewed lots of expectations.

 

Whiff% is bottom 1% of the league. His BB% is bottom 6%. He's not making contact and not even showing the batter's eye he once had. He just can't hit fastballs.

 

The only thing that could factor in differently (if at all) is that his expected HR total is much lower than his actual total for 2021.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec is far from the Sox biggest problem in a season when every team has at least one hitter in the lineup who is below par.

 

Defense is a bigger problem, but with no easy fix.

 

And lately the rotation, with everyone except Eovaldi looking very inconsistent, looks like the biggest problem.

 

But why should your 1b be the weakest hitter. It just doesn't make sense. It should be the easiest slot to put a bat in.

 

The rotation is what it is for this year. I don't think they are going to trade for anyone. I hope they can figure it out for 2022.

[notin]

His career WRC+ is now at 97. His torrid short sample from last year skewed lots of expectations.

 

Whiff% is bottom 1% of the league. His BB% is bottom 6%. He's not making contact and not even showing the batter's eye he once had. He just can't hit fastballs.

 

The only thing that could factor in differently (if at all) is that his expected HR total is much lower than his actual total for 2021.

 

 

If they add a LHH 1b, that’s not a big deal. Sure Dalbec isn’t the biggest problem, but that’s also likely to be the easiest and least costly fix.

 

Adding a starter is a bigger need IMO, but it’s also a lot more difficult to pull off…

[notin]

But why should your 1b be the weakest hitter. It just doesn't make sense. It should be the easiest slot to put a bat in.

 

The rotation is what it is for this year. I don't think they are going to trade for anyone. I hope they can figure it out for 2022.

 

But your example of Doug Mientkiewicz in 2004 didn’t involve getting a bat. And the request for LHH 1b with a good glove didn’t emphasize it either.

[mvp 78]

If they add a LHH 1b, that’s not a big deal. Sure Dalbec isn’t the biggest problem, but that’s also likely to be the easiest and least costly fix.

 

Adding a starter is a bigger need IMO, but it’s also a lot more difficult to pull off…

 

I'm not sure a big deal needs to be made.

[notin]

I'm not sure a big deal needs to be made.

 

 

I do think starter depth is a big deal. Both Eovaldi and Richards have significant injury histories. ERod is charting unnavigated waters heath-wise. If the Sox do have any health issues in the rotation, they don’t have a lot of places to turn for replacements. Houck - not healthy himself - can only fill one spot in the rotation. Sale isn’t ready yet either and has his own health question marks.

 

So who takes the starts if someone goes down in the next couple weeks?

[Maxbialystock]

But why should your 1b be the weakest hitter. It just doesn't make sense. It should be the easiest slot to put a bat in.

 

The rotation is what it is for this year. I don't think they are going to trade for anyone. I hope they can figure it out for 2022.

 

To remind: the Sox have used a bunch of guys (Santana, Arroyo, Chavis, Gonzalez, Chavez, et al) at 1b so far this season. Dalbec is the best of bad options. And he is 5th on the team in rbi's while having the fewest at bats among the regulars, which explains, I think, why he sort of has the job even though he is probably the worst defensively.

[Bellhorn04]

But why should your 1b be the weakest hitter. It just doesn't make sense. It should be the easiest slot to put a bat in.

 

Bloom didn't have much payroll room to work with and Dalbec is a minimum wage player, so it made sense from that perspective.

 

We could have signed Mitch Moreland again, but he's not doing that great either - although if the A's are willing to trade him for not much, that might not be a bad idea.

[moonslav59]

When you're trying to win a championship you can't have a starting 1b hit like this, his OPS+ is 79.

 

The amazing thing about Dalbec is his HR total, he has 10 HR so far and is on pace to hit 20 HR. And this is a guy who is supposed to be a HR hitter. Obviously, Dalbec's hit tool is so poor that it is affecting his lousy HR output.

 

It's hard to know if a .673 OPS is what we can expect, going forward.

 

Dalbec hit .959 in 92 Pas in 2020.

He hit .507 in 92 PAs to start the 2021 season.

He hit .778 in his next 94 PAs.

He's hit .743 in his last 65 PAs but .830 over is last 80 PAs.

 

Does anyone know who the real Dalbec is or will become?

 

I realize that in the thick of a pennant chase, trying to find out can be hurtful to the team's chances, and certainly Dalbec has had some very hurtful stretches. I can understand why people want to platoon or demote or replace him. I wanted him demoted a while back, but that was when I had higher hopes for Santana and Chavis.

 

I can see us replacing Santana and or Chavis with a LH'd hitting 1Bman, but I doubt we trade anyone very promising.

[moonslav59]

Bloom didn't have much payroll room to work with and Dalbec is a minimum wage player, so it made sense from that perspective.

 

We could have signed Mitch Moreland again, but he's not doing that great either - although if the A's are willing to trade him for not much, that might not be a bad idea.

 

If we want to re-set, like I think we do, we have about $4.5M to add to the budget.

 

If we are picking up a player or two, we are only paying about 1/3 of their 2021 salary and only 1/3 of the tax line number counts against the tax line. We also may be replacing a salary or two, which may be subtracted from what we add.

 

We could add $4.9M in salary while cutting $400K and still squeak under the tax line.

[mvp 78]

Bloom didn't have much payroll room to work with and Dalbec is a minimum wage player, so it made sense from that perspective.

 

We could have signed Mitch Moreland again, but he's not doing that great either - although if the A's are willing to trade him for not much, that might not be a bad idea.

 

I remember people discussing Schoop in the offseason. He doesn't break the bank.

[moonslav59]

I remember people discussing Schoop in the offseason. He doesn't break the bank.

 

He bats righty.

 

His career and 2021 OPS is about what Dalbec's career OPS is.

[mvp 78]

If we want to re-set, like I think we do, we have about $4.5M to add to the budget.

 

If we are picking up a player or two, we are only paying about 1/3 of their 2021 salary and only 1/3 of the tax line number counts against the tax line. We also may be replacing a salary or two, which may be subtracted from what we add.

 

We could add $4.9M in salary while cutting $400K and still squeak under the tax line.

 

Didn't they already reset last year?

[mvp 78]

He bats righty.

 

His career and 2021 OPS is about what Dalbec's career OPS is.

 

I know you keep harping on those 2020 numbers, but you can throw those out.

[moonslav59]

I know you keep harping on those 2020 numbers, but you can throw those out.

 

Throw out the .830 over his last 80, too?

 

Why?

 

The kid is just starting his ML career. Ups and downs are expected.

 

We have no idea what we can expect going forward.

 

He is not likely going to be a .950 hitter, but I doubt he'll be a .600 hitter either.

 

.745 is pretty good for any player's first 350 PAs in MLB, or at worst, it's not bad enough to end the experiment.

 

I'm not happy with what he's done, this year. His leash is short.

 

I'm not sure the next 2 1/2 weeks are going to sway anyone's opinion either. I'd like to see us make a cheap deal like the Pearce one we made in 2018, but I won't be crushed if we stick with Dalbec or maybe give Cordero, Marwin or Chavis some looks at 1B along the way.

 

To me, our biggest need is pitching and defense.

[moonslav59]

Didn't they already reset last year?

 

Yes, but that doesn't mean they want to start the clock right away. The Sox history of re-sets often includes 2-3 year under the line stretches.

 

To me, I think the team is looking at a window from 2022 to 2025 as being a better chance at winning it all than 2021.

 

Preventing us from reaching year 3 of the tax in 2023 might be a valid priority.

 

(Assuming this type of tax structure is still around, then.)

[mvp 78]

Throw out the .830 over his last 80, too?

 

Why?

 

The kid is just starting his ML career. Ups and downs are expected.

 

We have no idea what we can expect going forward.

 

He is not likely going to be a .950 hitter, but I doubt he'll be a .600 hitter either.

 

.745 is pretty good for any player's first 350 PAs in MLB, or at worst, it's not bad enough to end the experiment.

 

I'm not happy with what he's done, this year. His leash is short.

 

I'm not sure the next 2 1/2 weeks are going to sway anyone's opinion either. I'd like to see us make a cheap deal like the Pearce one we made in 2018, but I won't be crushed if we stick with Dalbec or maybe give Cordero, Marwin or Chavis some looks at 1B along the way.

 

To me, our biggest need is pitching and defense.

 

Once the book got around on Dalbec, he struggled to adjust. The first few weeks of his career are the aberration.

 

His OPS is not good enough for 1B.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec is 26, not 23-24. There's not much more room for improvement IMO.