A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

Yes, but that doesn't mean they want to start the clock right away. The Sox history of re-sets often includes 2-3 year under the line stretches.

 

To me, I think the team is looking at a window from 2022 to 2025 as being a better chance at winning it all than 2021.

 

Preventing us from reaching year 3 of the tax in 2023 might be a valid priority.

 

(Assuming this type of tax structure is still around, then.)

 

If they already reset, it seems weird to call this year a reset as well. Just say that they don't want to go over the luxury tax threshold.

[moonslav59]

Once the book got around on Dalbec, he struggled to adjust. The first few weeks of his career are the aberration.

 

His OPS is not good enough for 1B.

 

So, what you are saying is pitchers adjust and batter never counter adjust? What's the time period allowed for the batter to adjust to the pitcher's adjustment?

 

It looks, to me, like .830 over his last 80 PAs might be a sign he has counter-adjusted, but if you want to use his tiny last 7 day sample size, maybe he has not adjusted well enough.

 

Who know what Dalbec will become?

 

Is 350 PAs to start a career enough to know?

 

Being in first place makes it harder to give a kid a longer look, but I think Sox management sees something in Dalbec enough to not want to give up just yet.

 

I was for demoting him a while back, so it's not like I don't understand the frustration and sense of urgency. I'm fine with us trading for a LH'd bat that can play 1B, even before the deadline, if possible, but I still think pitching and defense is our highest need area.

 

[moonslav59]

If they already reset, it seems weird to call this year a reset as well. Just say that they don't want to go over the luxury tax threshold.

 

Okay, the choice of the word "re-set" after we just re-set is not the correct wording. My point is, the Sox probably would love to stay under, so they can get to year 3 in 2024 not 2023.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is 26, not 23-24. There's not much more room for improvement IMO.

 

There is room for adjusting to what pitchers have adjusted to, and he has shown signs of adjusting over the last 80 PAs.

 

.830 OPS

 

Ks:

30 K in 85 PA and 80 AB, but 10 in his last 37 PAs/36 AB.

 

Is this better than before June 10th?

65K in 173 PA and 162 AB

 

Looks about the same, except for very recently.

 

[notin]

Once the book got around on Dalbec, he struggled to adjust. The first few weeks of his career are the aberration.

 

His OPS is not good enough for 1B.

 

Dalbec’s .673 ranks 26th of 28 first basemen with 250 or more PA. The only two players fairing worse on Fangraphs are Josh Fuentes and Miguel Cabrera, neither of whom actually play 1b.

 

While every team has a worst hitter and every team has a 9th place hitter, Dalbec as a 1b is not doing a good job at the plate relative to his counterparts…

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec’s .673 ranks 26th of 28 first basemen with 250 or more PA. The only two players fairing worse on Fangraphs are Josh Fuentes and Miguel Cabrera, neither of whom actually play 1b.

 

While every team has a worst hitter and every team has a 9th place hitter, Dalbec as a 1b is not doing a good job at the plate relative to his counterparts…

 

I think the Yankees have the worst overall output at first base. A joint effort by Voit, Ford and Bruce, none of whom have 250 PA...

[moonslav59]

Dalbec’s .673 ranks 26th of 28 first basemen with 250 or more PA. The only two players fairing worse on Fangraphs are Josh Fuentes and Miguel Cabrera, neither of whom actually play 1b.

 

While every team has a worst hitter and every team has a 9th place hitter, Dalbec as a 1b is not doing a good job at the plate relative to his counterparts…

 

Dalbec's .830 OPS since June 10th places him 17th out of 34 1Bmen with 80+ PAs. (10th best SLG% at .513/25th best OBP at .318)

 

Does this mean he has turned the corner and might be an average 1Bman going forward?

 

I sure as hell don't know.

 

Out of 39 1Bmen with 350 PAs since 2020, Dalbec ranks 28th in OPS at .745- just below Hosmer and Carlos Santana and Anthony Rizzo.

Edited July 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I think the Yankees have the worst overall output at first base. A joint effort by Voit, Ford and Bruce, none of whom have 250 PA...

 

 

Actually Red Sox first basemen this year have a .618 OPS, worst in MLB. The Yankee 1b have a combined .671 OPS, which ranks 24th…

[mvp 78]

Actually Red Sox first basemen this year have a .618 OPS, worst in MLB. The Yankee 1b have a combined .671 OPS, which ranks 24th…

 

That's just depressing.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually Red Sox first basemen this year have a .618 OPS, worst in MLB. The Yankee 1b have a combined .671 OPS, which ranks 24th…

 

The Yankees cheated and moved LeMahieu there for some games.

[Nick]

There's a big difference between improving production from 1B for the pennant chase and giving up completely on a player playing that position.

 

It's way too early to give up on Dalbec. I too am frustrated, much like waiting on JBJ to break out of his slump in the past.

 

That said, second half of season should be presenting our best line up day in and day out. Dalbec obviously hits the lefties. Find a left handed bat. That should not be a difficult task.

 

No, no, no. It can't be Santana and it can't be Marwin.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

There is a chance that the Red Sox roll the dice with Dalbec and Cordero at 1b this year and use their trade chips to upgrade the rotation with a Kyle Gibson or a Jose Berrios. I would be pretty happy with that kind of rotation upgrade even if we wake up on Aug 1 without a new first baseman.

[mvp 78]

There is a chance that the Red Sox roll the dice with Dalbec and Cordero at 1b this year and use their trade chips to upgrade the rotation with a Kyle Gibson or a Jose Berrios. I would be pretty happy with that kind of rotation upgrade even if we wake up on Aug 1 without a new first baseman.

 

If that's the platoon Bloom envisioned, he's a genius if it works.

[Nick]

If that's the platoon Bloom envisioned, he's a genius if it works.

 

Yep

[moonslav59]

There's a big difference between improving production from 1B for the pennant chase and giving up completely on a player playing that position.

 

It's way too early to give up on Dalbec. I too am frustrated, much like waiting on JBJ to break out of his slump in the past.

 

That said, second half of season should be presenting our best line up day in and day out. Dalbec obviously hits the lefties. Find a left handed bat. That should not be a difficult task.

 

No, no, no. It can't be Santana and it can't be Marwin.

 

It almost makes more sense to just trade for a FT 1Bman and let Dalbec "find himself" by playing FT at AAA.

 

Being on the weakside of a platoon does not give you any time to find a groove.

 

I'm not saying I'm against a new 1B platoon, but I just wonder.

[Swiharts Ghost]

It almost makes more sense to just trade for a FT 1Bman and let Dalbec "find himself" by playing FT at AAA.

 

Being on the weakside of a platoon does not give you any time to find a groove.

 

I'm not saying I'm against a new 1B platoon, but I just wonder.

 

Tear falls from my eye after reading this from Moon .Finally ! Guys Gals if Moon went there ? Please Bloom pull the trigger on a trade before other teams swoop up the best options for us .

[Larry Cook]

Tear falls from my eye after reading this from Moon .Finally ! Guys Gals if Moon went there ? Please Bloom pull the trigger on a trade before other teams swoop up the best options for us .

 

Fortunately hang’em Chaim is too busy killing the draft to give up on dalbec….aka big wind maker!

[moonslav59]

Tear falls from my eye after reading this from Moon .Finally ! Guys Gals if Moon went there ? Please Bloom pull the trigger on a trade before other teams swoop up the best options for us .

 

“Finally?”

 

I wanted Dalbec demoted a month ago, but then he showed signs of life.

 

My point was that demoting him does not mean we are giving up- same as with Cordero.

 

Finding cheap 1bmen is easy.

 

That being said, our highest need I’d pitching and defense- not 1B

[moonslav59]

My own games started ranking system:

 

Great Start “A”s: 4 IP O ER, 5 IP 1 ER, 6 IP 2 ER, 8 IP 3 ER

Good Starts “B”: 3 IP 0 ER, 4 IP 1 ER, 5 IP 2 ER, 6 IP 3 ER, 8 IP 4 ER

Decent Starts “C”: 3 IP 1 ER, 4 IP 2 ER, 7 IP 4 ER, 9 IP 5 ER

Bad Starts “D”: 3 IP 2 ER, 5 IP 3 ER, 6 IP 4 ER, 8 IP 5 ER

Horrible Starts “F”: 4 IP 3 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 6 IP 5 ER, 8 IP 6 ER

 

Sox Starters in 2021

 

34 A starts

16 B starts

3 C starts

14 D starts

22 F starts

 

43 A & B & C

36 D & F

 

 

Eovaldi

A-9: 4/2, 4/7, 4/30, 5/11,5/29, 6/4, 6/14, 6/26, 7/1

B-2: 4/14, 5/22

C-0

D-1: 4/19

F-6: 4/24, 5/6, 5/16, 6/9, 6/20, 7/6

 

Pivetta

A-8: 4/5, 4/22, 4/28, 5/9, 5/14, 6/2, 6/24, 7/4

B-1: 6/7

C-2: 4/17, 6/18

D-4: 4/11, 5/4, 5/20, 5/26

F-3: 6/12, 6/29, 7/11

 

ERod

A-5: 4/14, 4/20, 5/7, 6/27, 7/2

B-3: 4/25, 6/15, 6/22

C-1: 6/5

D-5: 4/8, 5/12, 5/18, 5/31, 6/10

F-2: 5/1,7/7

 

Perez

A-6: 4/29, 5/10, 5/15, 6/3, 6/19, 7/5

B-6: 4/13, 5/5, 5/21, 5/28, 6/25, 6/30

C-0

D-2: 4/6, 4/23

F-4: 4/18, 6/8, 6/13, 7/10

 

Richards

A-6: 4/15, 4/27, 5/2, 5/13, 5/19, 6/1

B-3: 4/10, 5/25, 7/3

C-0: 5/8

D-2: 6/6, 7/9

F-6: 4/4, 4/21, 6/11,6/16, 6/23, 6/28

 

Houck

A-0

B-1: 4/3

C-0

D-0

F-1: 4/18

 

A,B & C vs D & F

11-7 Eovaldi

11-7 Pivetta

9-7 ERod

12-6 Perez

9-8 Richards

1-1 Houck

Edited July 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

My own games started ranking system:

 

Great Start “A”s: 4 IP O ER, 5 IP 1 ER, 6 IP 2 ER, 8 IP 3 ER

Good Starts “B”: 3 IP 0 ER, 4 IP 1 ER, 5 IP 2 ER, 6 IP 3 ER, 8 IP 4 ER

Decent Starts “C”: 3 IP 1 ER, 4 IP 2 ER, 7 IP 4 ER, 9 IP 5 ER

Bad Starts “D”: 3 IP 2 ER, 5 IP 3 ER, 6 IP 4 ER, 8 IP 5 ER

Horrible Starts “F”: 4 IP 3 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 6 IP 5 ER, 8 IP 6 ER

 

Sox Starters in 2021

 

34 A starts

16 B starts

3 C starts

14 D starts

22 F starts

 

43 A & B & C

36 D & F

 

 

Eovaldi

A-9: 4/2, 4/7, 4/30, 5/11,5/29, 6/4, 6/14, 6/26, 7/1

B-2: 4/14, 5/22

C-0

D-1: 4/19

F-6: 4/24, 5/6, 5/16, 6/9, 6/20, 7/6

 

Pivetta

A-8: 4/5, 4/22, 4/28, 5/9, 5/14, 6/2, 6/24, 7/4

B-1: 6/7

C-2: 4/17, 6/18

D-4: 4/11, 5/4, 5/20, 5/26

F-3: 6/12, 6/29, 7/11

 

ERod

A-5: 4/14, 4/20, 5/7, 6/27, 7/2

B-3: 4/25, 6/15, 6/22

C-1: 6/5

D-5: 4/8, 5/12, 5/18, 5/31, 6/10

F-2: 5/1,7/7

 

Perez

A-6: 4/29, 5/10, 5/15, 6/3, 6/19, 7/5

B-6: 4/13, 5/5, 5/21, 5/28, 6/25, 6/30

C-0

D-2: 4/6, 4/23

F-4: 4/18, 6/8, 6/13, 7/10

 

Richards

A-6: 4/15, 4/27, 5/2, 5/13, 5/19, 6/1

B-3: 4/10, 5/25, 7/3

C-0: 5/8

D-2: 6/6, 7/9

F-6: 4/4, 4/21, 6/11,6/16, 6/23, 6/28

 

Houck

A-0

B-1: 4/3

C-0

D-0

F-1: 4/18

 

A,B & C vs D & F

11-7 Eovaldi

11-7 Pivetta

9-7 ERod

12-6 Perez

9-8 Richards

1-1 Houck

 

Good stuff....took me a minute to figure you had the dates of games pitched......

 

Surprising that Perez has the best % .667

Edited July 13, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

Tear falls from my eye after reading this from Moon .Finally ! Guys Gals if Moon went there ? Please Bloom pull the trigger on a trade before other teams swoop up the best options for us .

 

The “act fast” trading method only works if you blow the other team away with your offer. Otherwise most teams just wait out for the best return

[notin]

There's a big difference between improving production from 1B for the pennant chase and giving up completely on a player playing that position.

 

It's way too early to give up on Dalbec. I too am frustrated, much like waiting on JBJ to break out of his slump in the past.

 

That said, second half of season should be presenting our best line up day in and day out. Dalbec obviously hits the lefties. Find a left handed bat. That should not be a difficult task.

 

No, no, no. It can't be Santana and it can't be Marwin.

 

 

Your logic confuses me a bit, Nick.

 

You want to go all in and promote Duran to a bench role but then be patient with Dalbec at first. Shouldn’t upgrading the starting lineup be a priority over upgrading the bench?

[moonslav59]

Good stuff....took me a minute to figure you had the dates of games pitched......

 

Surprising that Perez has the best % .667

 

Yes, and nobody is below 50%.

[Nick]

Your logic confuses me a bit, Nick.

 

You want to go all in and promote Duran to a bench role but then be patient with Dalbec at first. Shouldn’t upgrading the starting lineup be a priority over upgrading the bench?

 

You are correct in what you said.

 

I like to think I'm being consistent. Maybe not.

 

I don't want any prospects being traded, that may not be possible.

 

I don't think Bloom is ready to demote Dalbec. What I thought I said was the management will be patient with Dalbec. But we need better production from 1B especially against right hand pitcher. Thus the need for platooning.

 

If we have Arroyo and Kike, I'm not sure we need Marwin. Santana should be gone.

 

I would think Duran is an upgrade over Santana. Against right hand pitcher, you can play Duran in CF and Kike at 2B and a lefty platoon partner at 1B. That gives us additional 2 left handed hitters hopefully more productive than Marwin/Santana combo.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Seabold finally making his first start...

Connor Seabold is indeed making his season and Red Sox organizational debut tonight in the FCL. He's been shut down since the end of April with "minor soreness" in his elbow but had no structural issues when checked out. He's been throwing in Florida for a while.

 

Connor is ranked #6 in SoxProspects and he came from the Phillies along with Nick Pivetta in Hembree/Workman trade.

[moonslav59]

Here are the top 1Bmen by fWAR on teams that may be sellers at the deadline.

 

(Note" some of these players are not "on the block" or may be too costly for the Sox.)

 

2.2 Freeman ATL .871 OPS

2.1 J Walsh LAA .892

1.7 Goldschmidt STL .767

1.5 C Santana KCR .789

1.5 T France SEA .756

1.2 Stephenson CIN .806

1.2 T Mancini BAL .791

1.2 G Cooper MIA .867

1.2 R Hoskins PHI .797

1.1 J Aguilar MIA .800

1.1 J Schoop DET .787

1.0 N Lowe TEX .762

0.9 J Votto CIN .810

0.7 A Rizzo Cubs .771

0.8 CJ Cron COL .833

 

Top RP'ers by fWAR

1.8 Kimbrel Cubs

1.4 R Rodriguez PIT

1.3 T Rogers MN

1.2 S Barlow KCR

1.2 P Sewald SEA

1.1 Gallegos STL

1.0 J Cisnero DET

1.0 P Fry BAL

1.0 Steckenrider SEA

 

Top SP'ers

4.5 Wheeler PHI

3.1 T Rogers MIA

2.8 G Marquez COL

2.5 Scherzer WSH

2.4 W Miley CIN

2.3 J Berrios MN

2.2 P Lopez MIA

2.1 Z Eflin PHI

2.1 Alcantara MIA

2.1 C Morton ATL

2.0 K Gibson TEX

1.9 A Cobb LAA

1.6 M Boyd DET

1.4 D Duffy KCR

1.4 S Gray CIN

1.0 T Anderson PIT

Edited July 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted these trades:

 

R Hernandez, Groome, Ward & Chavis (16.6)

to DET for

Boyd, Schoop & Cisnero (12.8)

_____________________________

 

Mata, Groome, Rosario & Chavis (18.9)

to KCR for

S Barlow (3+ yrs), C Santana , D Duffy & $2M. (19.5)(18.9)

_______________________

R Hernandez & M Wilson

to TEX for Gibson

Groome, Ward & Chavis

to COL for Gray & Cron

_______________________

 

 

Edited July 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

There seems to have been a bit of confusion over whether JDM has another opt-out at the end of this year. There's a story in the Globe today confirming that he does have an opt-out.

[notin]

There seems to have been a bit of confusion over whether JDM has another opt-out at the end of this year. There's a story in the Globe today confirming that he does have an opt-out.

 

… which he will exercise…

[moonslav59]

… which he will exercise…

 

Not if we extend him first.