A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

What if we added Chavis?!?!?

 

 

They’d turn the gun on you…

[notin]

I'd be tempted on Duran for Means. I'd do C and D. DEPENDING ON MEANS' HEALTH.

 

So you’d think about Duran for Means but you’re out on Duran for the younger and better Jose Berrios?

 

I get the years of control, but 1.3 years of a top 15 pitcher in MLB (which, since 2019, Berrios is) has to have significant value, too…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It won't be impossible to acquire Berrios. The Twins aren't going to resign him and need to trade him at some point. Building a trade around Downs and Jimenez seems like a reasonable starting point to me, with a SP prospect thrown in. Of course, the Twins may get a better offer, but building an offer around Downs and Jimenez isn't outrageous. Berrios isn't exactly the second coming of Pedro Martinez.

 

As far as Duran goes, the Twins can't expect the Red Sox to trade Duran while acquiring Berrios. The whole point of trading for Berrios is to be better over the next 1.2 of two baseball seasons, but Duran is also in the Red Sox's immediate plans (he will be starting next year). A player like Jimenez makes much more sense, since he isn't in the Red Sox's immediate plans.

 

If the Twins demand Duran, Bloom turns them down. It doesn't make sense for the Red Sox to fill one area of weakness (starting pitching) while creating another (next year's starting CF).

Edited July 14, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

They’d turn the gun on you…

 

Inshallah.

[mvp 78]

So you’d think about Duran for Means but you’re out on Duran for the younger and better Jose Berrios?

 

I get the years of control, but 1.3 years of a top 15 pitcher in MLB (which, since 2019, Berrios is) has to have significant value, too…

 

Yes, it's only about control. There is hesitancy about his injury though.

[moonslav59]

It won't be impossible to acquire Berrios. The Twins aren't going to resign him and need to trade him at some point. Building a trade around Downs and Jimenez seems like a reasonable starting point to me, with a SP prospect thrown in. Of course, the Twins may get a better offer, but building an offer around Downs and Jimenez isn't outrageous. Berrios isn't exactly the second coming of Pedro Martinez.

 

As far as Duran goes, the Twins can't expect the Red Sox to trade Duran while acquiring Berrios. The whole point of trading for Berrios is to be better over the next 1.2 of two baseball seasons, but Duran is also in the Red Sox's immediate plans (he will be starting next year).

 

I’m not saying you are wrong, but who does Duran replace next year?

 

OF Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe

2B (kike to 2B)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

LF Verdugo

CF Duran

RF Renfroe

2b: Hernandez and Arroyo

 

But Hernandez will also play some CF with Duran moving around in order to give some rest to Verdugo and Renfroe. Sure Hernandez will probably be a better defensive CF than Duran next year, but in 2-3 years Duran will be the better defensive player. Hernandez turns 30 in Aug and is signed for only one more year. He isn't a long term player for the Red Sox; in contrast, Duran will be around for a much longer stretch and isn't going to need more developmental time in AAA next season.

 

For me, it seems pretty obvious that Duran is the Red Sox starting CF next year.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Move Duran back to 2b.

[iortiz]

Move Duran back to 2b.

 

I think it's harder to find a 2B than a OF.

 

I agree.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I really don't think JD will opt out though.

 

I would be surprised to see him opt out. He can lock in 20 mil, not a small thing especially for a DH who is putting on some age and will have limited suitors.

[moonslav59]

LF Verdugo

CF Duran

RF Renfroe

2b: Hernandez and Arroyo

 

But Hernandez will also play some CF with Duran moving around in order to give some rest to Verdugo and Renfroe. Sure Hernandez will probably be a better defensive CF than Duran next year, but in 2-3 years Duran will be the better defensive player. Hernandez turns 30 in Aug and is signed for only one more year. He isn't a long term player for the Red Sox; in contrast, Duran will be around for a much longer stretch and isn't going to need more developmental time in AAA next season.

 

For me, it seems pretty obvious that Duran is the Red Sox starting CF next year.

 

By season end, you may be looking at Kike and Arroyo with rosier glasses.

 

(Maybe not.)

 

I'm just pointing out that the same players blocking Duran, now, will be here, next year.

 

The way things are trending, Kike and Arroyo may be held in higher regard than Verdugo by next April.

[moonslav59]

I would be surprised to see him opt out. He can lock in 20 mil, not a small thing especially for a DH who is putting on some age and will have limited suitors.

 

If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out, he may take that over $20M/1 plus what he might get after the 2022 season.

 

With player values still a bit unknown due to the whole COVID thing, you may be right.

[notin]

Move Duran back to 2b.

 

It depends why he was moved off there in the first place…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Kike is not a fixture on this team. He was a free agent, meant to contribute and help the Red Sox but he turns 30 this year, will be 31 at the end of next season. Thus, his defensive metrics should begin to decline somewhat (not uncommon for players in their early 30s). He is a nice player, but Duran is hopefully a future all-star, a fixture on the Red Sox for the next 6-7 seasons.

 

The idea of letting Duran rot away in AAA next year so that stud E.Hernandez can play CF is totally absurd. Hernandez isn't going to be here long, whereas Duran will probably be a core player.

 

I like Arroyo, and I think Arroyo can help be the bridge for Yorke. Arroyo is younger than E.Hernandez.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

It depends why he was moved off there in the first place…

 

I bet to use his athleticism more. He just hasn't picked up OF yet. Move him back.

[mvp 78]

If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out, he may take that over $20M/1 plus what he might get after the 2022 season.

 

With player values still a bit unknown due to the whole COVID thing, you may be right.

 

He should opt out. The Sox would be able to fit some younger guys in the lineup a little easier.

[mvp 78]

Kike is not a fixture on this team. He was a free agent, meant to contribute and help the Red Sox but he turns 30 this year, will be 31 at the end of next season. Thus, his defensive metrics should begin to decline somewhat (not uncommon for players in their early 30s). He is a nice player, but Duran is hopefully a future all-star, a fixture on the Red Sox for the next 6-7 seasons.

 

The idea of letting Duran rot away in AAA next year so that stud E.Hernandez can play CF is totally absurd. Hernandez isn't going to be here long, whereas Duran will probably be a core player.

 

I like Arroyo, and I think Arroyo can help be the bridge for Yorke. Arroyo is younger than E.Hernandez.

 

Something will have gone horribly wrong if he's in WOO next April.

 

I think Arroyo is fine for now. I'm hoping Downs breaks the door down.

[notin]

Are we talking about Jose Berrios? a really good MLB starting pitcher with an extra year of team control Jose Berrios? add in trade deadline premium? The package you would need to land Berrios would make 90% of this thread laugh in disbelief.

 

BTV accepts a 1 for 1 deal for Duran. Not sure the Twins would, but I suspect Duran headlines any deal for him…

[oldtimer]

If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out, he may take that over $20M/1 plus what he might get after the 2022 season.

 

With player values still a bit unknown due to the whole COVID thing, you may be right.

 

I doubt if we would match 3/$45 if that is the offer. He is a valuable player, but Bloom may choose to go for an alternative DH for less money and years and use the savings for pitching staff improvement.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out

 

he might be right about that, but if JD opts out, that would open up a lot of possibilities for the Red Sox. After all, we would be replacing a DH, and that shouldn't be hard to do. In contrast, replacing Bogaerts would be a huge problem (if he decides to opt out at the end of 2022)......

[notin]

Yes, it's only about control. There is hesitancy about his injury though.

 

Would you deal Duran for Spencer Turnbull, who reaches free agency the same time as Means?

Edited July 14, 2021 by notin

[oldtimer]

BTV accepts a 1 for 1 deal for Duran. Not sure the Twins would, but I suspect Duran headlines any deal for him…

 

Did you notice Wilson was taken out of the Worcester lineup. don't know if he was involved in any trade discussions. Something will be happening soon.

[mvp 78]

I doubt if we would match 3/$45 if that is the offer. He is a valuable player, but Bloom may choose to go for an alternative DH for less money and years and use the savings for pitching staff improvement.

 

Without JD's bat, they'd still have a potent lineup. Would be nice to use that $20M towards SPs.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Without JD's bat, they'd still have a potent lineup. Would be nice to use that $20M towards SPs.

 

especially if they can find a starting 1b who will produce better than an OPS+ of 79. And that shouldn't be hard to do, either.

[moonslav59]

Something will have gone horribly wrong if he's in WOO next April.

 

I think Arroyo is fine for now. I'm hoping Downs breaks the door down.

 

Arroyo has not solidified his hold on the FT 2B job, but I think he will. He seems to have grit.

 

I suppose we could go with some sort of 5 man rotation at the 4 positions (OF & 2B) with Renfroe & Verdugo playing nearly FT, but maybe we'll just trade someone.

 

I doubt we make a trade until we are more certain about Arroyo and Duran.

[moonslav59]

especially if they can find a starting 1b who will produce better than an OPS+ of 79. And that shouldn't be hard to do, either.

 

I'm not for this plan, but it would get a 100 OPS at 1B and Duran in the line-up, FT:

 

1B Kike 100

2B Arroyo 104

LF Verdugo 108

CF Duran ???

RF Renfroe 108

[mvp 78]

Did you notice Wilson was taken out of the Worcester lineup. don't know if he was involved in any trade discussions. Something will be happening soon.

 

I think he may have been pulled due to injury. No reason to pull him otherwise unless a deal is finalized.

[moonslav59]

BTV has updated their values. Here are the Sox value numbers:

Players

97 Devers

52 Bogey

50 Verdugo

23 Barnes (I guess they think the extension was very team friendly.)

12 E Rodriguez

12 Dalbec

11 Vaz

11 Houck

9 Taylor

5 Whitlock & Renfroe

4 D Hernandez & Arroyo

3 JD Martinez

3 K Hernandez & Chavis

2 Eovaldi

1 Perez, Sale, Arauz, Marwin

0 Ottavino, Plawecki & Cordero

-1 Sawamura & Andriese

-3 Richards

 

Prospects

48 Casas

45 Duran

20 Downs

11 Jimenez

10 Mata

7 R Hernandez & Yorke

5 Seabold

4 Groome, Song, Ward & Bello

3 Ramirez, Winckowski, Rosario, Lugo, Decker & Wilson

2 Bonaci, Jordan, Potts, F Valdez, Wong, Murphy, Lopez, Gonzalez, Bazardo, Cannon, Chacon, Rafaela

 

[mvp 78]

Would you deal Duran for Spencer Turnbull, who reaches free agency the same time as Means?

 

Maybe.

[mvp 78]

I think he may have been pulled due to injury. No reason to pull him otherwise unless a deal is finalized.

 

Wilson is back in the lineup tonight.