Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[mvp 78]

The original post had nothing to do with Price.

[Slasher9]

The original post had nothing to do with Price.

From the creation of the thread - Me stating that it was clay was a fugazi. I thought that was pretty evident with post 21 at the time i posted it. Maybe it wasnt as plain to see as i thought so i suppose i will try and explain at post 152. The point being that everyone looked at the terrible numbers (in the first post) for this season and assumed they were clays numbers. When in fact they were our $31MM mans numbers. After a couple pages of posts I reveled the truth and was interested to see that most posters upon learning the truth still pummeled clay and let price off the hook. It would be interesting to find out why exactly but a good bet is people have a hard time believing that clay is worthy of our support at $13MM for this season while they believe that price is worthy of our support at 2.5 times the salary putting up worse numbers. Because why? Babip????

I created the thread so I know what it is about. Apologies if the shell game was too complex.....

Edited May 8, 2016 by Slasher9

[Slasher9]

POST #1 UPDATED TO INCLUDE PRICE START #7.

BTW - i believe Price's 4.2 IP today may bring his average down to Clay's? so about that saving the BP stuff?

sorry for the inteRruption...let the Price excuses resume...

Edited May 8, 2016 by Slasher9

[StephenCurry30]

Buchholz and Price have both been awful. I don't see why there would be excuses for either at this point, they both make A LOT of money to pitch, and pitch well, neither is doing the job. Obviously you would have more confidence in a guy like Price, who from what I've heard is a known slow starter, which is fair, Big Papi of all people is also usually a slow starter. Is he a slow starter because the weather, if so, what the hell does that mean for a potential playoff start? I was also on the "Cueto" bandwagon but was happy with the Price signing at the time and cannot believe how awful he has been. I'm not giving up, but I cant even think of any positives at this point, he was rocked by the YANKEES, a yankees team that trots out aaron hicks and chase headley every game.

 

If Price doesn't pitch the way he's expected, its hard to imagine this team going too far, especially with the number of questions marks with other spots in this rotation. Kelly, Buchholz, Owens and at the moment have all been awful, which leads Porcello and a knuckleball pitcher as our two best pitchers.. Can't say that gives me confidence.

[SoxHop]

Bucky was amazing last game and we are all hoping this is the turning point. In serious, his last five innings was just amazing pitching and made the opposing team look foolish. If you like watching pitching, then watching Bucky last game you got a good show.

 

So there is that. He's now plus one of Price.

 

Best guess is that Price is better than Bucky next start, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

The only thing we know right now about these two is now a Price's start is a crapshoot along with the next Buchholtz's start.

 

It's funny. Todays game with 0 and 2 with two outs and bases loaded with Price on the mound I had no worry that he would get that out........ and BAM...... triple........

 

he better get his s*** together........... we have a journeyman knuckleballer showing him up.

[Northern Star]

clay pitched well? seen this movie before.

[SoxHop]

clay pitched well? seen this movie before.

 

yup........ it could mean anything. At least that was one...... hoping for two now. It could be great, it may end in injury. who the f*** knows with that guy......

[StephenCurry30]

Buchholz will get a hot stretch, he ALWAYS does, its just that he also always gets injured in the middle of his hot stretch with a strained vagina, a cavity, or a hangnail, you know, something serious enough to end his season.

[SoxHop]

Buchholz will get a hot stretch, he ALWAYS does, its just that he also always gets injured in the middle of his hot stretch with a strained vagina, a cavity, or a hangnail, you know, something serious enough to end his season.

 

Exactly.... that's why we pay him 13 mil...... for his hot stretch............

 

If he could keep that going all year he'd be a 30 mil guy.......

[S5Dewey]

Exactly.... that's why we pay him 13 mil...... for his hot stretch............

 

If he could keep that going all year he'd be a 30 mil guy.......

 

Yes. This ^^^^ is the issue that some people don't get. We're getting what we pay for. It's just frustrating that he isn't worth $30 for a full year because he has the talent to be that pitcher.

 

I would gladly pay $26M for two of him if we could be guaranteed that they'd be on the DL at different times.

[Kimmi]

Yes. This ^^^^ is the issue that some people don't get. We're getting what we pay for. It's just frustrating that he isn't worth $30 for a full year because he has the talent to be that pitcher.

 

I would gladly pay $26M for two of him if we could be guaranteed that they'd be on the DL at different times.

 

What completely boggles my mind is how people said that picking up Clay's option for $13 mil is a bad deal and not worth it but paying Price $31 mil a year for 7 years is a good deal.

 

I realize that Clay is not David Price, but all things are relative.

[Bellhorn04]

What completely boggles my mind is how people said that picking up Clay's option for $13 mil is a bad deal and not worth it but paying Price $31 mil a year for 7 years is a good deal.

 

I realize that Clay is not David Price, but all things are relative.

 

Price was coming off 6 seasons in which his lowest fWAR was 4.2. He seemed to be close to a sure thing. And I don't think anyone has ever argued that it wasn't an overpay or that it wasn't risky. It was more like something that had to be done because the rotation was so bad last year.

 

Clay is Clay. I'm one of his few supporters here, but I understand why people have given up on him.

[a700hitter]

What completely boggles my mind is how people said that picking up Clay's option for $13 mil is a bad deal and not worth it but paying Price $31 mil a year for 7 years is a good deal.

 

I realize that Clay is not David Price, but all things are relative.

I'd give Buchholz $25 million if he could pitch an entire season, but he can't. He has never gotten close to 200 innings. I'd rather have a comparably talented pitcher and pay him $30 million than to have a half year pitcher for $13 million. The hit that a pitching staff takes when its #2 goes down also has a value. Replacing #2 production is not easy and it can cost money and talent. If I had my may, the Red Sox would have picked up Buch's option and then traded him and gone in a different direction.

[Kimmi]

Price was coming off 6 seasons in which his lowest fWAR was 4.2. He seemed to be close to a sure thing. And I don't think anyone has ever argued that it wasn't an overpay or that it wasn't risky. It was more like something that had to be done because the rotation was so bad last year.

 

Clay is Clay. I'm one of his few supporters here, but I understand why people have given up on him.

 

Price is one of the best in the game. I get all that Bell. I understand the frustration with Buchholz. I get frustrated with him myself. But $13 mil for a one year deal? Clay was worth $20.8, $11.1, and $25.3 over the last 3 years. That is virtually no risk for a very good possibility of high reward. How can that be a bad deal?

[Kimmi]

I'd give Buchholz $25 million if he could pitch an entire season, but he can't. He has never gotten close to 200 innings. I'd rather have a comparably talented pitcher and pay him $30 million than to have a half year pitcher for $13 million. The hit that a pitching staff takes when its #2 goes down also has a value. Replacing #2 production is not easy and it can cost money and talent. If I had my may, the Red Sox would have picked up Buch's option and then traded him and gone in a different direction.

 

If Buchholz gets injured, the problem would not be with picking up his option, the problem would be with not having a solid plan B. That said, I think the FO probably felt that at worst, having Clay gives guys like Owens and Johnson some time to develop in AAA.

[a700hitter]

If Buchholz gets injured, the problem would not be with picking up his option, the problem would be with not having a solid plan B. That said, I think the FO probably felt that at worst, having Clay gives guys like Owens and Johnson some time to develop in AAA.

Did you read my post? I said that I would have picked up his option and then traded him.

[Bellhorn04]

Price is one of the best in the game. I get all that Bell. I understand the frustration with Buchholz. I get frustrated with him myself. But $13 mil for a one year deal? Clay was worth $20.8, $11.1, and $25.3 over the last 3 years. That is virtually no risk for a very good possibility of high reward. How can that be a bad deal?

 

I agreed with picking up the option. I wouldn't call it a no-brainer, because he ended the year on the DL with the type of injury that can come before TJ surgery.

[Emp9]

What can we expect from Clay tonight? Are his troubles, for the most part, behind him? I know he has trouble vs. Khris Davis & Josh Reddick, but are Josh Phegley & Mark Canha going to rip him a new one as well? What has anyone on here taken away from his last start vs the Chisox? He did pretty well there: 7 In, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB. Ferrall says he's starting to pitch w/ " more conviction"... whatever that means. What says you?

[Slasher9]

I always expect a QS from Clay.

Picking up his option was the easiest decision DD had to make this past offseason. picking up the 2017 option will be the easiest decision he makes this upcoming offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

What can we expect from Clay tonight? Are his troubles, for the most part, behind him? I know he has trouble vs. Khris Davis & Josh Reddick, but are Josh Phegley & Mark Canha going to rip him a new one as well? What has anyone on here taken away from his last start vs the Chisox? He did pretty well there: 7 In, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB. Ferrall says he's starting to pitch w/ " more conviction"... whatever that means. What says you?

 

I say I have no freaking idea how he'll pitch tonight.

[SoxnCycles]

What can we expect from Clay tonight? Are his troubles, for the most part, behind him? I know he has trouble vs. Khris Davis & Josh Reddick, but are Josh Phegley & Mark Canha going to rip him a new one as well? What has anyone on here taken away from his last start vs the Chisox? He did pretty well there: 7 In, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB. Ferrall says he's starting to pitch w/ " more conviction"... whatever that means. What says you?

 

He did pitch his last game with more conviction.

I'd like to see him do it again before I'm convinced he's going another one of his runs.

 

I don't belive for a minute that all of his problems are over.

If he goes 12-0 again, he'll be on the DL by August.

[Slasher9]

Updated OP to include Clay's 7th start:

 

PRICE ------ CLAY

7 GS ------- 7 GS

41.1 IP ------- 39.2 IP

45 H ------- 40 H

31 ER ------- 26 ER

4 HR ------- 6 HR

1.38 WHIP ------- 1.437 WHIP

6.75 ERA ------- 5.90 ERA

[FredLynn]

Seven starts; five poor starts. ERA nearly 6. At least he is consistent. He doesn't have much time left in my opinion. The Red Sox cannot afford a SP with that track record. I supported him early on; I wanted to give him a chance to hang himself. Unfortunately, that is exactly what he is doing. I would give him three more starts to see what he can do. If he cannot pitch consistently well in all of them I would DL him with an eye to trading him.

[Slasher9]

Seven starts; five poor starts. ERA nearly 6. At least he is consistent. He doesn't have much time left in my opinion. The Red Sox cannot afford a SP with that track record. I supported him early on; I wanted to give him a chance to hang himself. Unfortunately, that is exactly what he is doing. I would give him three more starts to see what he can do. If he cannot pitch consistently well in all of them I would DL him with an eye to trading him.

 

clay, price, or both?

[Maxbialystock]

To me the $13M was a reasonable investment. Buchholz has had real success in the past largely because he has had good stuff. Control is an issue with him as with most starters, and my guess is the cold weather hasn't helped, but that's only a guess.

[FredLynn]

clay, price, or both?

 

Clay. Price will be fine.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay. Price will be fine.

 

We certainly have more grounds for confidence that Price will be fine. But a couple more 6 or 7 run outings and we'll all have good reason to worry.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

If Price continues to pitch as he has this season he's going to make Sabathia's contract look like a bargain.

[mvp 78]

To me the $13M was a reasonable investment. Buchholz has had real success in the past largely because he has had good stuff. Control is an issue with him as with most starters, and my guess is the cold weather hasn't helped, but that's only a guess.

 

He's also spent lots of real time on the DL and has had real struggles in the past. To me, he's just not a sure enough bet to take up a spot in my rotation.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

He's also spent lots of real time on the DL and has had real struggles in the past. To me, he's just not a sure enough bet to take up a spot in my rotation.

 

I would have to agree with you.