Is this 2026 Red Sox team…CONTENDERS or PRETENDERS?

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

+I'm watching the Mets/Phils game and they're talking about the great Cora taking either the Phils or Mets job as manager.

Unless I've missed something over the last 8+ years, how is Cora considered a great manager? Does just having it said make it true?

Anyways, I'm just glad he's no longer here.

 

Anyone talking about Cora taking over the Phillies might have imbibed prematurely.  Mattingly is 45-24 and would be MOTY if the vote was held today.

OTOH, it feels like Cora was a much better manager than Mendoza.  I don't think it is a well-constructed team, but after the 2025 collapse, and the bad 2026 start, how long do stick with the manager?

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, notin said:

So…counting the last 5 series, you’re saying the Sox could have a 28-9 stretch that encompasses playing nearly a quarter of the season with a winning percentage over .750, and you’re thought is “but this team has too many flaws!”???

 I’m all for selling now, but if the winning keeps up, at what point do people think “hey, this team might actually be pretty good”?

I said "might."

I said "I'm leaning sell" and am "climbing the fence."

My guess is we go 14-7, I'll be for buying, but "WE MIGHT Need TOO MUCH to go ALL IN."

You want us to go all in? Like trade Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon and maybe even Early?

[sk7326]

What is funny is that the stuff I expected to go well has ... the defense is very good and the run prevention in general has been solid.  Heck, with the recent stretch of usefulness by Durbin - for the most part Breslow's offseason moves have all shown something.  Gray, Suarez and Contreras have been everything you could dream and Bennett's recent form has been more than that.  

Honestly, this team being 46-48 with a positive run differential despite getting effectively nothing from what was projected as their two best players entering the season actually deserves some plaudits.  

[southpaw777]

10 hours ago, notin said:

I think they’re contenders but since it’s based on the weaklings around them, I think selling makes sense.  But I think Breslow will buy, because selling is always the unpopular move…

Unfortunately that’s what I think they will do too…

[notin]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I said "might."

I said "I'm leaning sell" and am "climbing the fence."

My guess is we go 14-7, I'll be for buying, but "WE MIGHT Need TOO MUCH to go ALL IN."

You want us to go all in? Like trade Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon and maybe even Early?

Trade them for who?  What exactly do you mean by “all in”? It looks more like “all out”.

In the next 21 games, the Sox play Tampa, Baltimore, Toronto, at Oakland, at LAD, and then the White Sox back at Fenway, with those last 3 occurring after the trade deadline.

If we go 14-7 in that stretch, on top of the 14-2 stretch the Sox just completed, assuming no injuries (unrealistic but you can’t plan for specific ones), what exactly is “all in”?  At what point does the Sox current team look really good with only a tweak or two needed?  Because if “all in” means trading Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon and Early, I assume something(s) major is also coming back…

[Hugh2]

I'm almost at full buy mode, not yet....but getting very close.  Gun to my head today and I'm selling, but I would seriously consider flipping the switch with a series win vs. TB. 

What I DON'T want to see is another straddle.  I think they need to definitively buy.  None of this selling a piece here and trading for a mid game bullpen arm crap. If they buy, they need a premium player or two.  and if they sell, then sell and get some real assets to work with this offseason. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Trade them for who?  What exactly do you mean by “all in”? It looks more like “all out”.

In the next 21 games, the Sox play Tampa, Baltimore, Toronto, at Oakland, at LAD, and then the White Sox back at Fenway, with those last 3 occurring after the trade deadline.

If we go 14-7 in that stretch, on top of the 14-2 stretch the Sox just completed, assuming no injuries (unrealistic but you can’t plan for specific ones), what exactly is “all in”?  At what point does the Sox current team look really good with only a tweak or two needed?  Because if “all in” means trading Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon and Early, I assume something(s) major is also coming back…

In any given window a team can play much better or worse than who they are. 

The Sox were obviously not as bad as they played earlier this year and were a horribly unlucky team.  They're probably also not as good as the 14-2 team we've seen.  You're adding a player to what you think they really are, perhaps something inbetwee.  

Because other teams are going to have hot stretches, and you might have more cold stretches too but we are within striking distance and in contention.  So there is urgency, and practicality to adding pieces now. 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Trade them for who?  What exactly do you mean by “all in”? It looks more like “all out”.

In the next 21 games, the Sox play Tampa, Baltimore, Toronto, at Oakland, at LAD, and then the White Sox back at Fenway, with those last 3 occurring after the trade deadline.

If we go 14-7 in that stretch, on top of the 14-2 stretch the Sox just completed, assuming no injuries (unrealistic but you can’t plan for specific ones), what exactly is “all in”?  At what point does the Sox current team look really good with only a tweak or two needed?  Because if “all in” means trading Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon and Early, I assume something(s) major is also coming back…

Hard to project what the Sox should do over the next few series and how it should or should not force the Breslow's hand.

However, trading Arias et al doesn't necessarily mean something major is coming back just because of the inflated prices at the deadline. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/dustin-may-dodgers-red-sox-trade

Consistently buying at the deadline, or waiting to do so, is bad business. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm almost at full buy mode, not yet....

What's full buy mode mean to you? Do you think they are WS contenders? 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Hard to project what the Sox should do over the next few series and how it should or should not force the Breslow's hand.

However, trading Aias et al doesn't necessarily mean something major is coming back.

https://www.mlb.com/news/dustin-may-dodgers-red-sox-trade

it still blows my mind that people in the Sox FO thought this was a good idea.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

What's full buy mode mean to you? Do you think they are WS contenders? 

"What's full buy mode mean to you"?

It means getting a significant piece that might actually help this team win games and compete in October and not another Dustin May

"Do you think they are WS contenders?"

I believe I already answered this question in the rest of my statement.  At this current exact moment. NO they are not. They are not contending for the world series right now. 

 

[Hugh2]

Arias is not a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball Ranking anywhere from #1 to #7

He's not getting traded, and if he was he would be part of a package for a cost controlled MLB stud. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it still blows my mind that people in the Sox FO thought this was a good idea.

It was the only deal they could get done aside from Matz. They tried to also swing the trade with the Twins, but the Twins weren't serious. 

I don't have a lot of faith in Breslow being able to manage the deadline. Trades in the offseason? Maybe. At the deadline when time is tight? Not really. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Arias is not a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball Ranking anywhere from #1 to #7

He's not getting traded, and if he was he would be part of a package for a cost controlled MLB stud. 

Easy to say that now. I wouldn't move him unless it was a huge return. Would Breslow? IDK. I think they like him internally, but they aren't as high on him as they were KC, Roman or even Teel. I feel like the buzz on Arias just isn't that great for whatever reason. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe prospect fatigue? 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Easy to say that now. I wouldn't move him unless it was a huge return. Would Breslow? IDK. I think they like him internally, but they aren't as high on him as they were KC, Roman or even Teel. I feel like the buzz on Arias just isn't that great for whatever reason. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe prospect fatigue? 

Prospect fatigue? Maybe, but the buzz around Portland compared to the past like with Casas, RAF Man, of course the big 3, and KC is nothing close.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/the-trickiest-problem-at-2026-trade-deadline

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Prospect fatigue? Maybe, but the buzz around Portland compared to the past like with Casas, RAF Man, of course the big 3, and KC is nothing close.

You think people are more excited about Arias than they were about Roman Anthony? 

[notin]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's full buy mode mean to you? Do you think they are WS contenders? 

They are definitely on the short list of teams in the hunt that benefit from playing more games on the road…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

They are definitely on the short list of teams in the hunt that benefit from playing more games on the road…

That's only if the success from earlier in the season holds true. It could flip in the second half. Pitching could falter and hitting could heat up at home. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You think people are more excited about Arias than they were about Roman Anthony? 

Maybe from the AA Portland perspective. Arias hasn't made it to AAA or had a cup of coffee in the Show or WBC -- places where the Anthony hype really erupted.

Here are their AA stats (bold numbers are higher in comparison):

Anthony 94 G, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .277 BA, .379/.494/.873

Arias      80 G, 20 HR, 56 RBI, .315 BA, .389/.572/.962

Franklin also has the rep as an excellent middle infielder. There are already concerns Roman can be an average MLB outfielder.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe from the AA Portland perspective. Arias hasn't made it to AAA or had a cup of coffee in the Show or WBC -- places where the Anthony hype really erupted.

Here are their AA stats (bold numbers are higher in comparison):

Anthony 94 G, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .277 BA, .379/.494/.873

Arias      80 G, 20 HR, 56 RBI, .315 BA, .389/.572/.962

Franklin also has the rep as an excellent middle infielder. There are already concerns Roman can be an average MLB outfielder.

Roman Anthony was hyped back to when he was in A ball. Arias was a mid level prospect until this year. I think people forget about the hype train that Roman had TBH. 

Maybe fans are hyped about Arias, but I'm not sold that the Sox are as invested in him as they were on Roman, KC and Teel (my original point). 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Roman Anthony was hyped back to when he was in A ball. Arias was a mid level prospect until this year. I think people forget about the hype train that Roman had TBH. 

Maybe fans are hyped about Arias, but I'm not sold that the Sox are as invested in him as they were on Roman, KC and Teel (my original point). 

Agree on the second point, as maybe the Sox have learned to temper expectations on their anointed saviors. But Anthony was only hyped by the org when he was first promoted for hitting the ball hard despite crappy stats. Soon after they were handing out t-shirts at Fenway Park of the Big Three -- before any had even played there. 

By the time they sent Roman (and Mayer) back to the minors and kept Campbell instead, everyone else was on board except the disingenuous front office. It took a 500-foot grand slam before they finally had no choice but to call him up and begrudgingly cough up $100 million bucks to keep him in the hopes of saving another hundred mil or so in the near future...

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

In any given window a team can play much better or worse than who they are. 

The Sox were obviously not as bad as they played earlier this year and were a horribly unlucky team.  They're probably also not as good as the 14-2 team we've seen.  You're adding a player to what you think they really are, perhaps something inbetwee.  

Because other teams are going to have hot stretches, and you might have more cold stretches too but we are within striking distance and in contention.  So there is urgency, and practicality to adding pieces now. 

The pitching is WS caliber IMO if we get crochet back. I think we signed Suarez for that late season run. 

 

offensively last 28 days per BR

durbin OPS .1013 (bound too cool) 

siegler OPS .733 ( I don’t think he will maintain that)

Rafaela OPS .690 ( hope he ticks back up)

Contreras OPS .850 ( hope for consistency)

Abreu OPS .725 ( hope he ticks back up)

Duran OPS .388 (give him July off to reset his mind…. No idea but literally can’t get worse)

Yoshida OPS .958 ( probably cools some) 

my point to putting out the last 28 days is when we get that level of production we went 15-6. Sidenote: I think we are 13-8 best case w/ Cora in that run. 
Trade deadline there are some bats available, that will help this lineup. You will either have to give up good players to get them. Or take some risk financially vs Father Time. But to sell after the run we’ve been, on and knowing how our roster is constructed for WC round. Based on info we have about injuries, and people coming back that’s Crazy talk IMO.

 

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agree on the second point, as maybe the Sox have learned to temper expectations on their anointed saviors. But Anthony was only hyped by the org when he was first promoted for hitting the ball hard despite crappy stats. Soon after they were handing out t-shirts at Fenway Park of the Big Three -- before any had even played there. 

By the time they sent Roman (and Mayer) back to the minors and kept Campbell instead, everyone else was on board except the disingenuous front office. It took a 500-foot grand slam before they finally had no choice but to call him up and begrudgingly cough up $100 million bucks to keep him in the hopes of saving another hundred mil or so in the near future...

The only time Roman had "crappy" stats was before he reached Greenville. 

GRE 161 wRC+

POR 182, 141 wRC+

WOO 161, 145 wRC+

Once he got to Greenville and Portland in '23, the hype machine was ready to go because the Red Sox had nothing else going on at the time. That was the year that Mayer was injured in POR and missed most of the second half. It was really all about Roman at the time. The "Big Three" stuff started the following offseason I believe. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

But to sell after the run we’ve been, on and knowing how our roster is constructed for WC round. Based on info we have about injuries, and people coming back that’s Crazy talk IMO.

Who is coming back and when? 

We don't have a timetable for Crochet or Anthony. If neither played the rest of the season, I wouldn't be surprised. 

[southpaw777]

54 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe from the AA Portland perspective. Arias hasn't made it to AAA or had a cup of coffee in the Show or WBC -- places where the Anthony hype really erupted.

Here are their AA stats (bold numbers are higher in comparison):

Anthony 94 G, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .277 BA, .379/.494/.873

Arias      80 G, 20 HR, 56 RBI, .315 BA, .389/.572/.962

Franklin also has the rep as an excellent middle infielder. There are already concerns Roman can be an average MLB outfielder.

They better give Roman a 1b mit at some point because it’s either there or DH in the future for him. The OF will be only if needed.

Arias has been looking more and more like the real deal this year against advanced pitching. AAA call up soon.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm almost at full buy mode, not yet....but getting very close.  Gun to my head today and I'm selling, but I would seriously consider flipping the switch with a series win vs. TB. 

What I DON'T want to see is another straddle.  I think they need to definitively buy.  None of this selling a piece here and trading for a mid game bullpen arm crap. If they buy, they need a premium player or two.  and if they sell, then sell and get some real assets to work with this offseason. 

straddling feels like a big contributor to what got the last guy fired.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe from the AA Portland perspective. Arias hasn't made it to AAA or had a cup of coffee in the Show or WBC -- places where the Anthony hype really erupted.

Here are their AA stats (bold numbers are higher in comparison):

Anthony 94 G, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .277 BA, .379/.494/.873

Arias      80 G, 20 HR, 56 RBI, .315 BA, .389/.572/.962

Franklin also has the rep as an excellent middle infielder. There are already concerns Roman can be an average MLB outfielder.

wow

[southpaw777]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who is coming back and when? 

We don't have a timetable for Crochet or Anthony. If neither played the rest of the season, I wouldn't be surprised. 

Crochet hasn’t even thrown a baseball yet. He’ll have to do that, then a long toss for a bit, and if no setbacks, maybe tick it up a little. He will have been out for a few months and people think he’s coming back a ball of fire? He’s got to ramp that arm back up again like spring training. Same with Early, who I believe is behind that’s timeline. Hopefully that forearm isn’t more than they think.. Tolle and Bennett will be non factors for the playoffs due to IP limits. Bello is Bello and Sandoval? Sure thing. 
I really like our chances in 2027 and beyond. But let’s be realistic about our rotation.we would need a starter and a big bat and hope to God Crochet can make it back AND pitch like an Ace. We also have a couple more game without Suarez as long as that groin heals good. 
there are team already better than us who will definitely be upgrading as well. I’m just not sure this is our year to sell the farm to go for it. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

They better give Roman a 1b mit at some point because it’s either there or DH in the future for him. The OF will be only if needed.

Arias has been looking more and more like the real deal this year against advanced pitching. AAA call up soon.