Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Soto is very overrated. The pitching in the FCL isn't very good and he's only sporting a 586 OPS. All the hype centered on his athleticism and signing bonus. I've seen enough of those guys flop (sorry) over the past few seasons that I'm over that profile. They need to prove it before they get a rocket strapped to them.

Phillips is a reliever to me. 

Ramos also has a 570 OPS in FCL.

All young players have some sort of upside. I think this group just has less upside than some recent top 30 lists we've had.

 

Yeah, I get all that, but I'm not getting all hung up on small sample size stats for teenagers.  Guys this young are just as often working on things, making mechanical changes etc etc etc.  You just as often see the opposite, guys in FCL levels putting up .900 OPS and never even get out of the minors. 

I get they have a long way to go and a lot can go wrong between here and the majors, but I like betting on athleticism and talent and the Sox seem to do as good of a job as the rest of them at developing those guys. Phillips might be a reliever, he also might be a #2 starter one day.  Payton Tolle had high reliever risk too. 

I just don't understand how those warts make the Sox system worse than 1/2 of them.  Other organizations have guys like Phillips and if they didn't have high reliever risk they'd be a top 25 prospect.....heck even those guys end up being relievers often. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Okay but dont be the last hater in the room alone with fred. 

I thought Fred was in the all-in camp this week?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not Lindor though!!! There were some people who wanted to trade for Lindor because of the drama with Soto. I think we saw what happened recently as reason we don't need him on this team. 

I'm open to anything if Brez first adds a bat that helps keep the Sox in contention.

August 3 is too late to wait for. But if they're still winning, I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster for this window.

Now, which player would be a better change-of-greenery (Monstah): Lindor or Bichette?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you'll find that I'm being realistic.

Everyone is a realist.  They just have opposite thoughts on what 'realistic' means.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm open to anything if Brez first adds a bat that helps keep the Sox in contention.

August 3 is too late to wait for. But if they're still winning, I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster for this window.

Now, which player would be a better change-of-greenery (Monstah): Lindor or Bichette?

Lindor is a future Hall of Famer.  Bichette might not be the best player in his own immediate family…

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm open to anything if Brez first adds a bat that helps keep the Sox in contention.

August 3 is too late to wait for. But if they're still winning, I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster for this window.

Now, which player would be a better change-of-greenery (Monstah): Lindor or Bichette?

It has to be Bichette.  Lindor has $170M due until age 37.  That's likely to be a nightmare.  Bichette has a very difficult contract, but we might get salary relief based on him being way over-market, and the relief can be based on whether or not he opts-in or opts-out.

And just for funnsies, since Bichette's position should be 2B in 2027, that would make Mayer expendable.  I think adding a good prospect might get us a whole lot of payroll relief.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'd take France; he's a hitter I liked because he'd go the other way to put the ball in play.

Nothing personal to legendary Rockies hitters from the past, but I'm just not in the mood any more to trust guys who thrive in Colorado. 

Ellis Burks had 20 homer pop in Boston and in his first year in Coors hit 40? At age 31? It was 1996 if that means anything.

Colorado rarely if ever sells players anyway, regardless of how far out of it they are.

If I had to rank players by likelihood of being added, France probably tops my list, largely because he might be available even if the Padres decide to buy at the deadline…

[notin]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It has to be Bichette.  Lindor has $170M due until age 37.  That's likely to be a nightmare.  Bichette has a very difficult contract, but we might get salary relief based on him being way over-market, and the relief can be based on whether or not he opts-in or opts-out.

And just for funnsies, since Bichette's position should be 2B in 2027, that would make Mayer expendable.  I think adding a good prospect might get us a whole lot of payroll relief.

Bichette can opt out after this season, and I fully expect him to given his age and the complete dearth of actual hitters on the FA market tjis coming off-season….

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Okay but dont be the last hater in the room alone with fred.  Im eyeing my exit from the haterade ball myself and wondering if the optimists bandwagon saved me a seat when Ive been mostly a hater in 2026 (which is against my default, im usually quite optimistic with my teams).

"Haterade" 😄

[Nick]

We still have 17 games before the August 3rd trade deadline. Plenty of time to figure out. 

We have 4 against the Rays, 3 against the Orioles, 3 against the Jays, 4 against the Athletics and 3 versus the Dodgers. 17 games with 1 off day. It will really test our pitching staff. That's games in 6 days, one off day and then 10 games in 10 days.

I can't see us parting with any pitchers unless we go something like 3-8 after we return.

 

 

[FredLynn]

53 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I thought Fred was in the all-in camp this week?

No, Fred is a "don't hedge" guy. My preference is to be sellers since we have well below a 50% shot at even getting into the playoffs according to multiple sources and are still well below .500. Plan for a couple of years from now. Its best. But above all DO NOT HEDGE AGAIN!

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Time to move quickly then!!

...has fallen is more like it.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, I get all that, but I'm not getting all hung up on small sample size stats for teenagers.  Guys this young are just as often working on things, making mechanical changes etc etc etc.  You just as often see the opposite, guys in FCL levels putting up .900 OPS and never even get out of the minors. 

I get they have a long way to go and a lot can go wrong between here and the majors, but I like betting on athleticism and talent and the Sox seem to do as good of a job as the rest of them at developing those guys. Phillips might be a reliever, he also might be a #2 starter one day.  Payton Tolle had high reliever risk too. 

I just don't understand how those warts make the Sox system worse than 1/2 of them.  Other organizations have guys like Phillips and if they didn't have high reliever risk they'd be a top 25 prospect.....heck even those guys end up being relievers often. 

The Sox are worse than 1/2 the other teams because they dumped a bunch of their players last offseason and haven't developed any bats recently. DSL players aren't a good bet to succeed as they rarely become top 100 players. The Sox being middle of the road is about as good of a ranking as they're going to get. If you look at POR and WOO, there really isn't a whole lot there except for Eyanson and Arias. Proximity is very important for rankings. 

Payton Tolle pitched his ass off from day one and had a pitch that was plus plus right away. Can't compare Phillips to him.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

No, Fred is a "don't hedge" guy. My preference is to be sellers since we have well below a 50% shot at even getting into the playoffs according to multiple sources and are still well below .500. Plan for a couple of years from now. Its best. But above all DO NOT HEDGE AGAIN!

2 games below .500 is "well below?"

[FredLynn]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

2 games below .500 is "well below?"

Far enough below for me to favor selling at the TD. You too, I believe.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I just don't want them to buy expensive rentals. 

If we are going to be buyers, let this be the golden rule.

Cheap rentals, okay or maybe, but don't get dumb from wide-eyes.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm open to anything if Brez first adds a bat that helps keep the Sox in contention.

August 3 is too late to wait for. But if they're still winning, I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster for this window.

Now, which player would be a better change-of-greenery (Monstah): Lindor or Bichette?

I don't want either TBH. The cost for Bichette would be weird because of the opt outs and I think his swing doesn't really work at Fenway. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox are worse than 1/2 the other teams because they dumped a bunch of their players last offseason and haven't developed any bats recently. 

They "dumped" a bunch of players that are doing worse, now and a couple doing better.

Did you want DMay, Matz and Toro back?

Okay, seriously, now, Bregman, Ref, Giolito, DHam, Perales, Clarke, Jh Garcia and on and on?

The only ones doing better are Harrison, Drohan and N Lowe a little bit. I'm glad we replaced them with Contreras, Gray, Suarez and Bennett.

Seigler> DHam. (Hell, Monasterio is, too.)

Durbin => Bregman (at a tiny fraction of the cost)

Contreras> Toro, Lowe & Co at 1B

Bennett> Perales & DMay

Gray> Giolito

Suarez > everyone else

We lost too many games due to sticking with everyday vets- some nearing or in prime and Story exiting prime.

We lost too many games due to a collective team slump and some injuries that are not really more than the average, but even with DH depth, we sucked there. We did cover the SP'er depth more than well enough, however.

 

[southpaw777]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry should keep the team, but hold onto a CBO for longer than 4 years and make sure ownership stays out of their way. That's the whiplash that is causing the Sox to not have a real run. Bloom/DD/Breslow, they should stick with a guy and hand the keys over. Ever since Theo left, it has felt like ownership has played too large a part in decision making. 

Even when Theo was here it seemed they were forcing their way onto him. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Far enough below for me to favor selling at the TD. You too, I believe.

I am still for selling, and not because I think we have an under 50% chance of making the playoffs. I think we will. I think we will end up 6-12 games over .500.

My reason is this: We'd need to be mega buyers to have a really good chance at a ring. I'm not a "playoffs are a crapshoot" guy. I do think with a couple moderate adds we could be competitive with all other AL teams- hell we are now, but those NL teams look unbeatable, to me.

Why cash in the future for a big playoff letdown? I know to some, making the WS would be worthy trade-off. Not me. This team is fragile enough, as it is, and we will be needing farm infusions for years to come, because it seems obvious to many (I know you and I for sure)  that JH is not going to spend like the Mets and Dodgers, Even the Yanks, Philly, TOR and SDP are likely far out of reach on team spending budgets going forward.

I like that JH has upped the winter spending budgets and ridding ourselves of the Devers contract bodes well, going forward, but we are and will continue to be limited (handcuffed) by our "new spending" budget, and the farm is our major resource to combat that. We can hope the Brez makes more trades like last winter, but we've seen enough trades like Sale, Harrison and others go south to know we can't count on 75% genius moves, which is what we'd need if we trade away Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon & Gonzales.

There is still time for my mind to be changed, but as of now, I'm ranking our deadline chices as such:

1. SELL only free agents to be and if we get something very nice for Chapman, do it. I'd include Duran, Story, Yoshida and maybe Whitlock, but the first 3 have next to zero trade value or worse.

2. Buy mildly by trading only prospects at or below Phillips (Holobetz, Cespedes and the like) for the best RHB we can find for that value. Maybe add a RP'er, but deadline overpays are usually not worth it for pen arms. I doubt we get anyone much better than the guy we just cut- the .629 OPSA Coulombe.

3. Buy a little bit more than mildly by adding Witherspoon, Azocar, Godbout and Valera to the #2 listmentioned. Get a better RHB or two (DH + middle infielder)

4. Do nothing or close to it.

5. All in buy.

The Don'ts:

1. No top prospects for rentals.

2. No taking on long and expensive contracts, unless some significant money is added, or they take back Story or Yoshida to help balance our future budgets.

3. NO BICHETTE!!!! 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want either TBH. The cost for Bichette would be weird because of the opt outs and I think his swing doesn't really work at Fenway. 

I agree, although Lindor's "decline" is more recent and may be just a blip. He turns 33, soon, so he looks like a future deadweight contract. The Mets wont take back Story and Yoshida, so nope on him, too.

[Hugh2]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox are worse than 1/2 the other teams because they dumped a bunch of their players last offseason and haven't developed any bats recently. DSL players aren't a good bet to succeed as they rarely become top 100 players. The Sox being middle of the road is about as good of a ranking as they're going to get. If you look at POR and WOO, there really isn't a whole lot there except for Eyanson and Arias. Proximity is very important for rankings. 

Payton Tolle pitched his ass off from day one and had a pitch that was plus plus right away. Can't compare Phillips to him.

Any system that graduates a Mayer/Campbell/Anthony one year and then a Tolle/Early is going to take a massive hit.  The fact that they're still technically in the top half of rankings is an amazing statement for their scouting and development department.

I did compare Phillips to Tolle, that doesn't mean they're perfectly comparable.  But they both had profiles of guys who could be anything from a #2 starter to a reliever.  I'm not really sure how comparable they are other than that but now that I'm looking at them they both were highly regarded pre-draft MLB/BA/ESPN

PT 87/82/72

MP 61/67/40 

Payton Tolle received a 2 million dollar bonus, Marcus Phillips received a 2.5 million dollar bonus.  So Phillips was ranked higher but Tolle definitely had a better first year.  But I'm competely unconcerned with a guy struggling his first 1/2 season of pro ball.  We have no ideal what their development plans are and what they are working on with these kids, and it doesn't really matter because that's not what I was comparing with them either.  The raw talent exists in their system which was the point. 

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/18/2026 at 10:56 AM, southpaw777 said:

Let’s be real…we have some good looking young starters in this organization, but we’re still a mediocre 500ish team. We would have to go over 600 the rest of the way to match last year, which wasn’t even 90 wins. We’re counting on too many 2nd year and 1st year guys. No leadership and a streaky offense. I don’t believe we are good enough this year to be a serious contender against the best teams. I get that the AL isn’t really competitive, but we’re not even serious contenders in a weak AL.

theres a few teams interested in Aroldis Chapman, and with a option for 27 that vests with 40ip we could possibly find that big bat we need.  we don’t have much pure power guys down there that have stood out besides the 6’6 270 lb young (19) and undeveloped Justin Gonzales.

Duran

Contreras

Gray

Are three more that immediately come to mind that could bring something back if they’re performing.

I'm not in favor of midseason deals.  With 9 straight wins,  now 2 gqmes below .500 and 1/2 game behind the wild card, I want Breslow to be cautious unless he can get something really good back for Contreras or Gray.  

Why keep all three?  The Sox pitching is the best it's been in decades and Gray already has 12 qualiity starts.  You can never have too much pitching, especially when it's far and away your strong suit.

Contreras is our best hitter with an OPS of .921, 20 dingers, and 61 rbi's.   

We will get nothing for Duran. Until Anthony returns--hopefully before next season--Duran is useful.  Two different managers have seen fit to play him every day despite his abysmal .601 OPS.  He has 5 assists and no errors.  He is 4th on the tgeam in total bases, 2d in dingers, 2d in rbi's, 3d in runs scored, and 1st in SB's.  

I agree these Sox are unlikely to get to 90 wins, which is the usual standard for a good season, but I don't care.  I like what Breslow has done so far, including replacing Cora, of whom I am a big fan.  I blame the weak hitting on the lousy contracts for Story and Yoshida, neither of whom has earned his pay at the plate.   Yes, he le the Cubs outbid him for 5 guaranteed years of Bregman, but right now that looks pretty smart because I like Durbin plus Contreras is outhitting Bregman.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

They "dumped" a bunch of players that are doing worse, now and a couple doing better.

Dude, if you trade a bunch of prospects, it's going to affect how your org is ranked. It's just how it is. It doesn't matter how those prospects perform the following season. You trade a bunch of near MLB arms and the team ranking will go down. This shouldn't be controversial. 

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Even when Theo was here it seemed they were forcing their way onto him. 

"Feeding the monster."

[southpaw777]

21 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm not in favor of midseason deals.  With 9 straight wins,  now 2 gqmes below .500 and 1/2 game behind the wild card, I want Breslow to be cautious unless he can get something really good back for Contreras or Gray.  

Why keep all three?  The Sox pitching is the best it's been in decades and Gray already has 12 qualiity starts.  You can never have too much pitching, especially when it's far and away your strong suit.

Contreras is our best hitter with an OPS of .921, 20 dingers, and 61 rbi's.   

We will get nothing for Duran. Until Anthony returns--hopefully before next season--Duran is useful.  Two different managers have seen fit to play him every day despite his abysmal .601 OPS.  He has 5 assists and no errors.  He is 4th on the tgeam in total bases, 2d in dingers, 2d in rbi's, 3d in runs scored, and 1st in SB's.  

I agree these Sox are unlikely to get to 90 wins, which is the usual standard for a good season, but I don't care.  I like what Breslow has done so far, including replacing Cora, of whom I am a big fan.  I blame the weak hitting on the lousy contracts for Story and Yoshida, neither of whom has earned his pay at the plate.   Yes, he le the Cubs outbid him for 5 guaranteed years of Bregman, but right now that looks pretty smart because I like Durbin plus Contreras is outhitting Bregman.  

Right now we have four of our 5 original starters out with no timetable for any of them yet. Crochet and Early haven’t even picked up a baseball yet. A groin injury can linger and Tolle and Bennett will surely be well over their innings limit during or by the end of September. Our offense sucked for three months and we just had a nice winning streak vs a decimated NYY team, the Rockies LAA and the NYM. 
now I’m not saying I didn’t enjoy it but let’s not fool ourselves, we would have to trade the farm to get the big bat, starter, or any other player we may need to replace by Aug 3.

we can get a LOT for Gray and Chapman. I’d listen on other players as well as some teams may get a little desperate and overspend. It’s a sellers market.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm open to anything if Brez first adds a bat that helps keep the Sox in contention.

August 3 is too late to wait for. But if they're still winning, I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster for this window.

Now, which player would be a better change-of-greenery (Monstah): Lindor or Bichette?

Lindor

[Hugh2]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, although Lindor's "decline" is more recent and may be just a blip. He turns 33, soon, so he looks like a future deadweight contract. The Mets wont take back Story and Yoshida, so nope on him, too.

Why wouldn't they take Story back?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Why wouldn't they take Story back?

For Lindor? I think they'd want a better return than Masa and Story TBH. Don't care what BTV says. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For Lindor? I think they'd want a better return than Masa and Story TBH. Don't care what BTV says. 

I'm not proposing Story for Lindor straight up. 

The ideal would be the money would equal out enough this year to allow the Sox to not cross the next LT threshold, and in return they could give the Mets a real piece for Lindor. 

and I know you DON'T CARE but I ran it through BTV anyways and they accept. 

Trevor Story and Henry Godbout for Lindor.  Although I'm sure it would take more moving pieces than that.