Red Sox front office did something right. They got rid of Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

When you can measure effort, and mindset, because of atmosphere let me know. Don’t believe in data, or doesn’t care about data? BIG difference. As I’ve said 100’s of times the only stats I care about are actual stats that show up on the scoreboard in real time. That’s what works for me. You guys can go nuts with all the other stuff all you want.

OK, but you're also saying that you think Devers would be putting up better stats with the Red Sox, right?  So in this case you're kind of arguing against his actual numbers. 

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, but you're also saying that you think Devers would be putting up better stats with the Red Sox, right?  So in this case you're kind of arguing against his actual numbers. 

I’m just saying that you can’t just look at what Raffy has done since he left Boston, and just assume that would translate to the exact same numbers if he had stayed in Boston, because of the things I mentioned like mindset, effort, and atmosphere. I’m not arguing against any numbers he has put up in SF.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I’m just saying that you can’t just look at what Raffy has done since he left Boston, and just assume that would translate to the exact same numbers if he had stayed in Boston, because of the things I mentioned like mindset, effort, and atmosphere. I’m not arguing against any numbers he has put up in SF.

I think we can assume it’s similar. It’s a tougher park for a lefty to homer in, but his effort and mindset are likely the same regardless of where he plays.

Now what we do know factually is he simply isn’t hitting the ball as well as he did last year, a year where he spent the majority of his games in San Francisco.  His exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel percentage, are all down.  His whiff rate is up and his walk rate is way down.  Hes also striking out slightly more, but that’s not necessarily fair to compare, because the rules are different in 2026.

These changes are not a result of atmosphere.   But I have to pass on the walk/strikeout stuff since I don’t know how he’s been impacted by challenges…

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

so I won't get stuck on the train tracks like that lady who blindly followed her GPS commands.

If the deal is to use GPS, or not use GPS, I am 100% all-in for GPS.

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, notin said:

I think we can assume it’s similar. It’s a tougher park for a lefty to homer in, but his effort and mindset are likely the same regardless of where he plays.

Now what we do know factually is he simply isn’t hitting the ball as well as he did last year, a year where he spent the majority of his games in San Francisco.  His exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel percentage, are all down.  His whiff rate is up and his walk rate is way down.  Hes also striking out slightly more, but that’s not necessarily fair to compare, because the rules are different in 2026.

These changes are not a result of atmosphere.   But I have to pass on the walk/strikeout stuff since I don’t know how he’s been impacted by challenges…

I'm not denying SF is not as friendly for hitters.  But since Devers was trade to the Giants in both 2025 and 2026 he has hit better at home than he has on the road.  

In 2025 he has WRC+ of 138 and an OPS of .843 at Oracle park while he was 118/.786 on the road. 

This year the road/home splits are almost identical.  He's just not hitting as well as he historically has everywhere right now. 

I think there's more to it, as you pointed out his exit velocity and hard hit rates are down.  Some guys just start their decline earlier than others and a lot of ball players start to go downhill around 30.  

Maybe we really did dodge a bullet trading Devers when we did...

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Some guys just start their decline earlier than others and a lot of ball players start to go downhill around 30.  

Not exactly a gym rat.  I always thought that attributed to Vazquez' offensive decline.  He just lost the rotational athletic skills.

[moonslav59]

One of the most memorable and quick Sox declines was Jim Rice.

While he dropped sharply from .911 (141 OPS+) to .791 (112 OPS) from ages 30 to 31, he had an uptick to a 123 OPS+ at age 32 and 137 at age 33. Then the walls caved in:

Age 34: 101 OPS+

Age 35: 102 OPS+

Age 36: 70 OPS+ in 56 games

Retirement.

I'm sure there are worse than this, but this struck me as a quick and steep decline.

 

[Hitch]

There's no point wondering what Devers might have or not have done, there's no point looking at his numbers and transporting them directly to if he'd stayed here. We don't know anywhere near enough of the variables. The trade might have rocked him, he might be have issues settling in SF (SF media certainly hasn't taken to him), he might have personal issues, it might just be a down year, he might hate the limelight that's come his way after the event, or a whole myriad of other reasons. 

The problem with making absolutely every argument stat base is that we forget human beings play this game not numbers.

That said, I have always been happy we've gotten out of that contract as it's certain it will go bad at some point, and I hated his attitude throughout the whole debacle. 

But we all boil these things down to numbers far too much. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

There's no point wondering what Devers might have or not have done, there's no point looking at his numbers and transporting them directly to if he'd stayed here. We don't know anywhere near enough of the variables. The trade might have rocked him, he might be have issues settling in SF (SF media certainly hasn't taken to him), he might have personal issues, it might just be a down year, he might hate the limelight that's come his way after the event, or a whole myriad of other reasons. 

The problem with making absolutely every argument stat base is that we forget human beings play this game not numbers.

That said, I have always been happy we've gotten out of that contract as it's certain it will go bad at some point, and I hated his attitude throughout the whole debacle. 

But we all boil these things down to numbers far too much. 

Good points, but I find it hard to imagine Devers doing much better within the toxic environment in Boston, both at the time he was traded and this 2026 situation.

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points, but I find it hard to imagine Devers doing much better within the toxic environment in Boston, both at the time he was traded and this 2026 situation.

I agree with you. If it was toxic last year, and it’s still toxic this year after Raffy, and Cora are both gone then the common denominator of who’s left, and why it’s still toxic is Brez. That wasn’t so hard was it now?

 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree with you. If it was toxic last year, and it’s still toxic this year after Raffy, and Cora are both gone then the common denominator of who’s left, and why it’s still toxic is Brez. That wasn’t so hard was it now?

It's not JUST Breslow. Can't change ownership though. 

[JoeBrady]

On 6/16/2026 at 1:07 PM, moonslav59 said:

One of the most memorable and quick Sox declines was Jim Rice.

My recollection is that he had a wrist injury that never quite recovered.  Those are a death knell to sluggers.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

But we all boil these things down to numbers far too much. 

But we need to be at least guided by the numbers.  Personally, I think he'll recover closer to expectations.  He's not even 30.  But the starting point for any discussion should be his actual numbers, and then arguing them back to what he might do if he ever returned.  If Hamilton had an .800 OPS this year, I wouldn't argue that he would only have a .642 if he returned to Fenway.

[Hitch]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But we need to be at least guided by the numbers.  Personally, I think he'll recover closer to expectations.  He's not even 30.  But the starting point for any discussion should be his actual numbers, and then arguing them back to what he might do if he ever returned.  If Hamilton had an .800 OPS this year, I wouldn't argue that he would only have a .642 if he returned to Fenway.

Guided, sure, but we don't let them guide us, we let them be the evidence and truth of everything. Which is just counter productive and blinkered. 

Not having a go at anyone, I'm as guilty as anyone. 

[Old Red]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not JUST Breslow. Can't change ownership though. 

JH on down is always a given.