Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On paper, the Durbin deal looks like a steal.

I still think Duran as a LF'er for HOU (or some other team) should be worth more than he is as a DH for us, but since we did not upgrade the offense anywhere but 1B, I'm fine with keeping Duran & Abreu.

Paredes at 3B and Durbin at 2B would have worked, too.

It will all depend on how they deploy Duran this year. Otherwise, it will be a wasted offseason.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It will all depend on how they deploy Duran this year. Otherwise, it will be a wasted offseason.

I think, assuming all healthy:

Duran: DH 120 games, LF 30 gms, CF 5 gms

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think, assuming all healthy:

Duran: DH 120 games, LF 30 gms, CF 5 gms

If he's DH'ing, they'll platoon him more as his value is diminished. 

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think, assuming all healthy:

Duran: DH 120 games, LF 30 gms, CF 5 gms

Cedanne starts the year 0-14, finds the bench. Duran in CF the next 159 games, wins MVP.

10.4 WAR

Heard it here, first.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If he's DH'ing, they'll platoon him more as his value is diminished. 

If they play him in the OF, the other OF'er's value is diminished.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Cedanne starts the year 0-14, finds the bench. Duran in CF the next 159 games, wins MVP.

10.4 WAR

Heard it here, first.

I really like Duran, but your love for him is beyond limits.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Duran, but your love for him is beyond limits.

He is my fifth favorite player on the team.  1. Crochet 2. Kutter Craw 3. Tolle 4. Story 5. Duran

[drewski6]

I just know hes going to lead the team in extra base hits (again) and I value that more than our #9 starter unlike some.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

He is my fifth favorite player on the team.  1. Crochet 2. Kutter Craw 3. Tolle 4. Story 5. Duran

So, not so much "love" as confidence in his abilities.

My faves as of the moment:

1. Rafaela

2. Narvaez

3. Abreu

4. Romy

5. Whitlock

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I just know hes going to lead the team in extra base hits 

Probably the easiest stat to predict correctly.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I just know hes going to lead the team in extra base hits (again) and I value that more than our #9 starter unlike some.

Some meaning "MLB GM's." 

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The Yankees fans that I know in person seem to be happy and the ones I see online seem to not be.  Im not sure what to make of it, but a few people have told me that online forums tend to skew negative because people are passionate and that makes some nervous/anxious (if Freds expectations are always 0, he never has to face disappointment) 

Ive never been convinced that its true that online fans skew more negative than overall fans but Ive heard it a bunch by people I respect. Could also be that the count of yankess fans i know in real life whom i asked the thoughts on the yankees isnt particularly high.

Personally, I think the Yankees are a top 2-5 team entering 2026, and the Red Sox are somewhere between 4-8.  The Red Sox will have elite pitching, so that keeps em high, even if theres injuries to pitchers other than 2 (I will not name them but one is a relief pitcher and both their last names begin with "c")

Some interesting thoughts here.  I do think that fans that post on online forums tend to be more passionate and more invested in their teams, as opposed to casual fans.  Would that make them skew to the negative?  I'm not sure.  I'm guessing, though, that disappointment hits us (forum posters) a lot harder than it does others, hence the need to vent.   

I am interested to see what kind of year Chapman will have.  He was otherworldly last year.  I'm sure there will be some regression, but he should still be a very good closer.  Fingers crossed.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, notin said:

It’s been status quo, but they did win 94 games last year…

Unfortunately, I think status quo for them is going to win the division.  :(

But don't count the Red Sox out!

[Kimmi]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I just know hes going to lead the team in extra base hits (again) and I value that more than our #9 starter unlike some.

I'm very glad that Duran is still on the team.  I'm glad that Breslow was able to get the pieces he needed without parting with Duran (or any other OFer) or Bello.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

I am interested to see what kind of year Chapman will have.  He was otherworldly last year.  I'm sure there will be some regression, but he should still be a very good closer.  Fingers crossed.

He was a huge part of the team's success, last season and is likely a big key to this season's outlook.

He blew away his most recent seasons' numbers and actually had a lower K/9 rate. His BB/9 was way better than his career norm.

It's nice having Whitlock to take some pressure off him, and I'm looking forward to having a healthy Slaten for the full season.

Whoever goes to the pen from Oviedo, Crawford & Sandoval could eat up a lot of middle innings, including some high leverage ones.

Weissert is probably the 7th and 8th inning guys, but Watson or Moran may move up.

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He was a huge part of the team's success, last season and is likely a big key to this season's outlook.

He blew away his most recent seasons' numbers and actually had a lower K/9 rate. His BB/9 was way better than his career norm.

It's nice having Whitlock to take some pressure off him, and I'm looking forward to having a healthy Slaten for the full season.

Whoever goes to the pen from Oviedo, Crawford & Sandoval could eat up a lot of middle innings, including some high leverage ones.

Weissert is probably the 7th and 8th inning guys, but Watson or Moran may move up.

To be honest, I don't really like Chapman, based on things we've read about his personal life.  However, I can't deny that I love how effective he has been as our closer, and of course, I have to root for him to continue being dominant.  I was very skeptical when he was first signed, but he has proven me wrong on the field.  I am a big Whitlock fan as our 8th inning guy.

Our bullpen looks pretty good, IMO.  Bullpens are typically pretty fluid, so we'll see how things shake out.

[Michigan Adam2]

I'm surprised total bases is not a more popular stat. It factors in hits,  extra base hits. Maybe create a new stat that adds sb, walks, and hbp to total bases and call it ultimate bases.  A very comprehensive offensive stat that factors in most of the significant factors like obo, slg, and a pretty big one...games played. The best ability is availability....

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I'm surprised total bases is not a more popular stat. It factors in hits,  extra base hits. Maybe create a new stat that adds sb, walks, and hbp to total bases and call it ultimate bases.  A very comprehensive offensive stat that factors in most of the significant factors like obo, slg, and a pretty big one...games played. The best ability is availability....

Duran would have hit the 370 mark in '24

330 TBs+ 6 HBP+ 34 SBs.

Some notable Sox highs...

412 Ellsbury '11

387 Betts '16

375 Devers '19

371 Betts '18

368 JD Martinez '18

365 Ortiz '05

356 Manny '04

352 AGon '11

349 Pedroia '08

347 Bogey '19

321 Youkilis '08

Others...

393 Story w COL in '18

247 Contreras w STL in  '25

[notin]

3 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I'm surprised total bases is not a more popular stat. It factors in hits,  extra base hits. Maybe create a new stat that adds sb, walks, and hbp to total bases and call it ultimate bases.  A very comprehensive offensive stat that factors in most of the significant factors like obo, slg, and a pretty big one...games played. The best ability is availability....

Well, it’s kind of a huge part of slugging percentage, which is half of OPS.

The other star you’re thinking of combing all of that (and more) didn exist.  It was called Total Average, created by Washington sportswriter Thomas Boswell in 1978.  It never caught on because Boswell created his stat before the invention of Microsoft Excel  (or even before forerunner Lotus 1-2-3) and it was very difficult t calculate by hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average

Maybe Boswell was just ahead of his time…

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I'm surprised total bases is not a more popular stat

It use to be.  When Rice had 400+ total bases, it was the first time in a long time since anyone hit 400, if ever.  Even since then, outside of the cheaters and the Rox, I think only Ohtani has accomplished it.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Well, it’s kind of a huge part of slugging percentage, which is half of OPS.

The other star you’re thinking of combing all of that (and more) didn exist.  It was called Total Average, created by Washington sportswriter Thomas Boswell in 1978.  It never caught on because Boswell created his stat before the invention of Microsoft Excel  (or even before forerunner Lotus 1-2-3) and it was very difficult t calculate by hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average

Maybe Boswell was just ahead of his time…

Factoring in GIDP in the '81 calc. Interesting. 🤔

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Factoring in GIDP in the '81 calc. Interesting. 🤔

It was essentially outs vs bases…

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It use to be.  When Rice had 400+ total bases, it was the first time in a long time since anyone hit 400, if ever.  Even since then, outside of the cheaters and the Rox, I think only Ohtani has accomplished it.

That '24 season was real nasty work by Shohei. If he was pitching, it could have been the greatest season of all time. 54 HR's and 38 2B's will always get it done. 

Rice got to his 400 TB's by leading the league with 15 3B's. Wild. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, notin said:

The other star you’re thinking of combing all of that (and more) didn exist.  It was called Total Average, created by Washington sportswriter Thomas Boswell in 1978.  It never caught on because Boswell created his stat before the invention of Microsoft Excel  (or even before forerunner Lotus 1-2-3) and it was very difficult t calculate by hand.

I have the same configuring WAR.

I can make a W by holding up 3 fingers, and an A with an upside-down peace sign -- but the capital R is impossible.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have the same configuring WAR.

I can make a W by holding up 3 fingers, and an A with an upside-down peace sign -- but the capital R is impossible.

Do a lowercase “r”.  No need to shout it.  

Unless you’re Eric Burdon…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Do a lowercase “r”.  No need to shout it.  

Unless you’re Eric Burdon…

or TC on play-by-play or pregame hype or interviews 

[mvp 78]

I closed the poll as we haven't had a new vote in a while. If someone wants to vote prior to Opening Day, let me know and I'll reopen. 

[moonslav59]

Maybe do a poll with several choices, like...

96+

93-95

90-92

87-89

84-86

[vegasbob]

The answer is 91

[JoeBrady]

92.