Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[Kimmi]

17 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Are you satisfied with making a guest appearance in the playoffs like last year?

Get to the playoffs.  Once there, anything can happen.  We could be the Dodgers and be out after the first series.  Or we could be the last WC team in and win the whole thing.

[Kimmi]

12 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yeah, I think this year is going to be heavy platoon however (assuming he makes the team). Then given the full runway next year if he proves to be healthy and good this year.

I cannot disagree with you.  While I'd like to see Mayer get to the point where he's playing against LH starters, a Mayer/Romy platoon ought to be pretty darn good.

[Kimmi]

9 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Injuries can change a lot for a lot of teams too.  What happens to the Yankees odds if they lose Aaron Judge? If they lost Aaron Judge that would literally drop them 20 places in offense projections.

It really makes you realize how much a big season can not just do for a player but for a team. 

What if Duran has another season like his 2024 and hits for more power? what if Abreu starts hitting LHP and just becomes a monster, what if Roman Anthony looks like guy who was ranked the #1 prospect in all of baseball last year and puts up 8 WAR???

It's easy to be pessimistic, because injuries happen and guys underperform, but 50% of the time the exact opposite is happening, teams stay healthy and guys performances evolve and peak. 

Post of the day, Hugh.

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Two draft picks and the fallout from Devers. 🫠

Two draft picks, offset by the financial flexibility gained by trading Devers.  😉

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Two draft picks, offset by the financial flexibility gained by trading Devers.  😉

 

Lost two draft picks, lost a middle of the order bat, but got 24M AAV. That's a fair trade? IDK. 

[Kimmi]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Lost two draft picks, lost a middle of the order bat, but got 24M AAV. That's a fair trade? IDK. 

To me, yes.  I was never on board with the Devers contract. and very relieved to be done with it.  Not happy with the loss of 2 draft picks, but that's a different issue, actually.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Why did the Tigers give Torres a QO. Lead poisoning? 

Because short term contracts require steep AAV premiums, but I do agree that one is a bit of a head scratcher.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

Colorado has a 0.2% chance, LOL.

Wow! That high?

[moonslav59]

We have a very different team than 2025. I'm not sure anyone expected this much turnover- beyond needing to replace Bregman, Gio, Wilson, Buehler, Lowe and Refsnyder. For a team that made the playoffs for the first time since 2021, it surprised me a bit.

It's not like Brez wasn't wheeling and dealing the previous season, but this time he wheeled and dealed some of his previous wheels & deals. Between the opening day MLB and AAA opening day rosters of 2025 and now, I count 11 MLB players gone plus Houck to the IL and about 17 gone from the AAA roster. I'm figuring an almost 50% changeover.

That makes it hard to project improvement or otherwise, and since so much of the team's focus changed, it's more complicated than just comparing 2025 numbers to projected 2026 numbers. For example, just how much does improving the rotation compensate for a possible/probable loss on offense? We also don't know which pitchers will fill out the pen, and the pen was a significant reason we won as much as we did, last year.

i'm not always optimistic, this time of year, but I feel pretty good about our chances of improving and going farther into October. There are grave concerns, of course, namely the offense, but also with health, the pen and counting on so many young players to fill key rolls.

Returning rookies: Anthony, Narvaez, Durbin, Mayer, Campbell, plus Tolle & Early.

Second year or three partial year players: Abreu, Rafaela, Slaten, Monasterio & Sogard

(Crawford pitched 2 IP in one of his 4 seasons)

I'm hoping players nearing or in prime to improve. I'm hoping those in prime of just past it, do well, again, and I'm hoping the elders hold on for one more year.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Get to the playoffs.  Once there, anything can happen.  We could be the Dodgers and be out after the first series.  Or we could be the last WC team in and win the whole thing.

Well of course! The first goal is to get into the playoffs. But if the result is like last year I for one am not going to satisfied. Last year it was ok. This year we should demand more.

[vegasbob]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

You guys are probably right.  Mayer is the guy that Cora is going to want to platoon.

If for no other reason than his injury history.  Try to get Mayer through a full season  of maybe 100 games, plus some PH or late inning defensive appearances

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Well of course! The first goal is to get into the playoffs. But if the result is like last year I for one am not going to satisfied. Last year it was ok. This year we should demand more.

I'm one who is not a "playoffs are a total crapshoot" kinda guy, but there is some luck involved with advancing a round or more into October.

I will say, once you make the playoffs, your top 3 SP'ers and top 2-3 RP'ers take on more importance and value, and your 4th and 5th starters less significance. This could be a plus for us.

Maybe we make some sort of impactful deadline deal to get a big bat, even if just as a rental. I know this goes fully against the recent trend of do nothing or do poorly at each deadline, but I think Brez is fully aware of the fact that one of the team's stated offseason goal (acquiring a big bat) was not accomplished.

Now, other teams may make equally impactful deadline deals, too, and that may negate any gain we make, but other than a big bat, assuming reasonable health, I think we'd be among the faves to advance to the WS with said "big bat" addition.

 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm one who is not a "playoffs are a total crapshoot" kinda guy, but there is some luck involved with advancing a round or more into October.

I will say, once you make the playoffs, your top 3 SP'ers and top 2-3 RP'ers take on more importance and value, and your 4th and 5th starters less significance. This could be a plus for us.

Maybe we make some sort of impactful deadline deal to get a big bat, even if just as a rental. I know this goes fully against the recent trend of do nothing or do poorly at each deadline, but I think Brez is fully aware of the fact that one of the team's stated offseason goal (acquiring a big bat) was not accomplished.

Now, other teams may make equally impactful deadline deals, too, and that may negate any gain we make, but other than a big bat, assuming reasonable health, I think we'd be among the faves to advance to the WS with said "big bat" addition.

 

I think Henry has put the reins on Breslows ability to pay what is necessary to get offensive talent. 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think Henry has put the reins on Breslows ability to pay what is necessary to get offensive talent. 

Not in terms of trade capital.

It's hard to know about line 2 and 3 of the tax.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I will say, once you make the playoffs, your top 3 SP'ers and top 2-3 RP'ers take on more importance and value, and your 4th and 5th starters less significance.

I assume that was Fred's point.  Last year, we lead with Crochet, Bello & Early.  This year, it will be Crochet, Suarez & Gray.  We should match up well with most teams.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume that was Fred's point.  Last year, we lead with Crochet, Bello & Early.  This year, it will be Crochet, Suarez & Gray.  We should match up well with most teams.

I think it was someone else.

I think Fred was on the O all the way back to the Devers trade,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume that was Fred's point.  Last year, we lead with Crochet, Bello & Early.  This year, it will be Crochet, Suarez & Gray.  We should match up well with most teams.

Gotta get there first.

There's no doubt this year's rotation looks deeper, but there's also no guarantee veterans like Gray and Suarez will both be good (though they're better bets going into the season than Giolito and Buehler off their previous year).

But just because the rotation looks improved -- and assuming the bullpen is ok -- there are still concerns.

We have no choice to move on from Bregman, but stop pretending it's a relief the Sox didn't spend all that money on their one All-Star position player and team leader.

Durbin has had one decent big league season and Mayer has had zero. From the sound of it, IKF is going to get a lot of PT...

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why did the Tigers give Torres a QO. Lead poisoning? 

They love secondbasemen who can hit 16HRs and maintain that .745/.746 OPS.

Its also why they extended Colt Keith..

[Old Red]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Gotta get there first.

There's no doubt this year's rotation looks deeper, but there's also no guarantee veterans like Gray and Suarez will both be good (though they're better bets going into the season than Giolito and Buehler off their previous year).

But just because the rotation looks improved -- and assuming the bullpen is ok -- there are still concerns.

We have no choice to move on from Bregman, but stop pretending it's a relief the Sox didn't spend all that money on their one All-Star position player and team leader.

Durbin has had one decent big league season and Mayer has had zero. From the sound of it, IKF is going to get a lot of PT...

I agree. Durbin may be a good little player, but he’s no Bregman with the glove, or the bat, and as you said Bregman was the team leader. What the Red Sox basically did was trade Bregman for Durbin, and Ranger. Mayer is still a SUSPECT, so play on the field will tell if things as they ended up will work out. It could go either way.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree. Durbin may be a good little player, but he’s no Bregman with the glove, or the bat, and as you said Bregman was the team leader. What the Red Sox basically did was trade Bregman for Durbin, and Ranger. Mayer is still a SUSPECT, so play on the field will tell if things as they ended up will work out. It could go either way.

Bregman for Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin sounds like a winning trade to me…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Bregman for Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin sounds like a winning trade to me…

How about Bregman, Harrison, Hamilton, Drohan and Rafael Devers (whose money signed Suarez) for Suarez, Durbin, Monaseterio, Seigler and a pick.

[FredLynn]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not in terms of trade capital.

It's hard to know about line 2 and 3 of the tax.

I was referring to actually spending money on FAs to obtain the talent necessary to be a relevant factor for a ring, which right now we are not.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Bregman for Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin sounds like a winning trade to me…

Sound like what the Peter Principle referred to as a "lateral arabesque".....a wash. So if we manage to get into the playoffs this year I expect a similar result-one and out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I agree. Durbin may be a good little player, but he’s no Bregman with the glove, or the bat, and as you said Bregman was the team leader. What the Red Sox basically did was trade Bregman for Durbin, and Ranger. Mayer is still a SUSPECT, so play on the field will tell if things as they ended up will work out. It could go either way.

We all want to be optimistic that the snow will melt and birds will chirp, but Breslow left a gaping hole in the middle of the order.  So the Red Sox have to optimize the best possible combinations for what's left of this offense.

Durbin hasn't proven anything in Boston, but I appreciate his contact rep -- especially since the Sox project to feature high K-rates with their first five hitters: Anthony-Story-Duran-Contreras-Abreu. Cora loves Anthony leadoff and has already said Contreras will bat clean-up.

Does that order strike fear in the hearts of any pitcher with a sweeper?

I've said it before, but if Anthony is your best hitter in a swing-and-miss line-up, it may be imperative to bat Roman after your best on-base men -- and to follow him with the next guy foes least want to face...

 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sound like what the Peter Principle referred to as a "lateral arabesque".....a wash. So if we manage to get into the playoffs this year I expect a similar result-one and out.

Maybe you’re overvaluing Bregman.  Try to think of Bregman like you did when the Sox acquired him….

 

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Maybe you’re overvaluing Bregman.  Try to think of Bregman like you did when the Sox acquired him….

 

I don't see this team as much better than last year's team-maybe by a couple of wins or so, but certainly not a factor for a championship. We could have been there if Henry wasn't such a cheap SOB.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all want to be optimistic that the snow will melt and birds will chirp, but Breslow left a gaping hole in the middle of the order.  So the Red Sox have to optimize the best possible combinations for what's left of this offense.

Durbin hasn't proven anything in Boston, but I appreciate his contact rep -- especially since the Sox project to feature high K-rates with their first five hitters: Anthony-Story-Duran-Contreras-Abreu. Cora loves Anthony leadoff and has already said Contreras will bat clean-up.

Does that order strike fear in the hearts of any pitcher with a sweeper?

I've said it before, but if Anthony is your best hitter in a swing-and-miss line-up, it may be imperative to bat Roman after your best on-base men -- and to follow him with the next guy foes least want to face...

 

The Sox replaced Bregman’s OPS+ of 128 with Willson Contreras’ 123.  Not so sure the 5% dropoff constitutes a “gaping hole”…

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I was referring to actually spending money on FAs to obtain the talent necessary to be a relevant factor for a ring, which right now we are not.

 

39 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I was referring to actually spending money on FAs to obtain the talent necessary to be a relevant factor for a ring, which right now we are not.

Fair enough. The last part of the post you replied to was about making a deadline deal for a big bat.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe you’re overvaluing Bregman.  Try to think of Bregman like you did when the Sox acquired him….

 

Bregman was not "the big bat" we needed. (Nor was Bichette.)

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all want to be optimistic that the snow will melt and birds will chirp, but Breslow left a gaping hole in the middle of the order.  So the Red Sox have to optimize the best possible combinations for what's left of this offense.

Durbin hasn't proven anything in Boston, but I appreciate his contact rep -- especially since the Sox project to feature high K-rates with their first five hitters: Anthony-Story-Duran-Contreras-Abreu. Cora loves Anthony leadoff and has already said Contreras will bat clean-up.

Does that order strike fear in the hearts of any pitcher with a sweeper?

I've said it before, but if Anthony is your best hitter in a swing-and-miss line-up, it may be imperative to bat Roman after your best on-base men -- and to follow him with the next guy foes least want to face...

 

Yes that gaping hole in the middle of the order was not addressed. Con Man will most likely give you more production at 1B than what the Red Sox had last year, but not what Alonso would most likely give, or Schwaber for that matter. Less production at 3B also.