The Time Has Come: Why the Red Sox Must Trade from Their Outfield Depth This Offseason

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd love another Tolle, but we are not in rebuild mode, now, and we have two Tolle's already (Tolle and Early) plus some up and coming pitchers who might make great strides in 2026, like Perales, Witherspoon, Valera, Fajardo, Phillips, Holobetz and maybe a couple more.

Now, if we end up trading Tolle and others for Ryan or KMarte and have Tong in his role, then maybe...

I guess Breslow needs to decide if this is the 21-22 offseason and the window is over or if it's the 16-17 offseason and the window just started. 

[Duran Is The Man]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Tong + Vientos for Duran frees up $8M in spending.

if John Henry can't afford $8 million, then he has no business owing a professional sports franchise.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Jays signing Bo is just a lateral move though? How does that push the envelope for any team? 

Tucker at least upgrades Lukes in LF. To really make a splash, the Jays need both Tucker and Bo. 

This aint a scene, its a goddamn arms race.  You dont remember when the sox and yanks would match move for move?  Well sub out red sox, sub in blue jays.  Or we can get serious again and have a 3 teams arms race.  It will at least be a a 2 team scramble for talent, we can make it a 3 team scramble for talent or let the gap between us and the best teams widen.  The Jays and Yanks are building a big rivalry and the yanks went home bitter with vlad rubbing it in all the way. You dont think they want revenge? You think the yanks are going to let the jays get cease and bring back bo (even if its a neutral move) without a counter?  And the jays beat the yanks , so really its on the yanks to improve (granted they should have G.cole coming back).  I can see the yankees jumpin in on schwarber or bellinger or trading for someone.  And the Phils are like no so fast. And the Mets are like hey, forget about us? And then a team with an owner that wants to win more than ours does jumps in and makes a splash. And suddenly we're begging "at least get polanco, everyone else is gone" and the boot lickers are rejoicing that henry can get another yacht.  And people are telling us that the dodgers are ruining baseball, but also that spending doesnt equate to success (reconcile those 2, cuz I cant).

Also, when there are only 4 or 5 big time free agents, and one comes off the board, teams start scrambling. If the Jays retain Bo, its one less bat available and I expect things to heat up.

I think things are going to heat up and theres more teams looking for talent than there is talent.  Someone is coming away disappointed.

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I guess Breslow needs to decide if this is the 21-22 offseason and the window is over or if it's the 16-17 offseason and the window just started. 

Back to the rebuild! Hey, we won a playoff game!  HAHAHA

 

[Behindenemylines]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it.

Agree! Plus Sox shouldn't trade Duran unless it involves a top of the rotation pitcher,

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I guess Breslow needs to decide if this is the 21-22 offseason and the window is over or if it's the 16-17 offseason and the window just started. 

Knowing these guys, they'll go in between.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Agree! Plus Sox shouldn't trade Duran unless it involves a top of the rotation pitcher,

I'd trade Duran for KMarte, because we'd still have plus OF'ers with Campbell, Garcia and masa as OF depth. We have needed a 2Bman since 2017.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if John Henry can't afford $8 million, then he has no business owing a professional sports franchise.

The point being that we would have $29M to spend instead of $21M.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can we all agree IF the Red Sox trade Tolle or Early next week (or this winter) in a package for a presumed upgrade in the starting rotation, that means they are going for it in 2026?

If that happens -- and we welcome Ryan, Ragans or someone comparable to the squad -- then the Sox absolutely positively HAVE to sign either Bregman or Bichette to hit behind Anthony, AND Alonso or Schwarber to hit home runs and drive them all in.

Not one big bat, but two: 1. Bregman or Bichette; 2. Alonso or Schwarber. If they don't get two of those four, then the line-up won't contend with the big dogs in the postseason -- so don't bother losing Tolle or Early.

Brez can still deal Duran or Abreu for the best possible return, but that swap will be done with an eye on 2027... 

Meanwhile, please don't tell me THE THIRD-BEST GENERATOR OF REVENUE in Major League Baseball can't afford to SIGN TWO TOP FREE AGENTS IN THE SAME DAMN WINTER (it insults my artificial ignorance... now, was it Barzini or Tattaglia?)

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The point being that we would have $29M to spend instead of $21M.

They have closer to 39 at the 2nd threshold.

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The point being that we would have $29M to spend instead of $21M.

my point is they can spend whatever they want if Henry would stop acting like he's down to his last nickel.

[Duran Is The Man]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can we all agree IF the Red Sox trade Tolle or Early next week (or this winter) in a package for a presumed upgrade in the starting rotation, that means they are going for it in 2026?

If that happens -- and we welcome Ryan, Ragans or someone comparable to the squad -- then the Sox absolutely positively HAVE to sign either Bregman or Bichette to hit behind Anthony, AND Alonso or Schwarber to hit home runs and drive them all in.

Not one big bat, but two: 1. Bregman or Bichette; 2. Alonso or Schwarber. If they don't get two of those four, then the line-up won't contend with the big dogs in the postseason -- so don't bother losing Tolle or Early.

Brez can still deal Duran or Abreu for the best possible return, but that swap will be done with an eye on 2027... 

Meanwhile, please don't tell me THE THIRD-BEST GENERATOR OF REVENUE in Major League Baseball can't afford to SIGN TWO TOP FREE AGENTS IN THE SAME DAMN WINTER (it insults my artificial ignorance... now, was it Barzini or Tattaglia?)

amen.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The point being that we would have $29M to spend instead of $21M.

That could be the difference between Alonso and Suarez.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

my point is they can spend whatever they want if Henry would stop acting like he's down to his last nickel.

This is so true, but what good does it do to keep saying it within the context of suggesting a realistic plan, when we all know it's not happening?

[illinoisredsox]

6 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if John Henry can't afford $8 million, then he has no business owing a professional sports franchise.

The issue for Henry isn’t the Sox.  It’s that Liverpool loses money and so do the Penguins.  $ from the Sox support these other parts of the Fenway Sports Group.

[Larry Cook]

Good news! We finally traded an outfielder! Garcia to Pittsburgh 
 

 But we still have yoshida and our 4 outfielders and Campbell in Worcester 

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

that means they are going for it in 2026?

I don't get the concept at all.  We had the #9 team, had the #6 run differential, and one of the best farms in BB.  We are obviously a contender in 2026, but probably for a long time after,

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

my point is they can spend whatever they want if Henry would stop acting like he's down to his last nickel.

Then none of the numbers matter, and we might as well sign Alonso, Bregman, Tucker and Bichette.  But the reality is that there is a number we will not exceed, and that trade would make the number $8M higher.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

but we are not in rebuild mode

We're always in 'build' mode.  Right now, if the season opened tomorrow, then Duran is our DH, maybe.  The OF would be RA, CR, and WA.  FG projects Yoshida as a 111 wRC+. and Duran as 111.  Duran marginal utility to the RS is very small.  In fact, Vientos has a higher projected wRC+ than Duran. 

In fact, I could make a pretty good case that Vientos backing up Mayer, Casas and Yoshida would add more value than Duran backing up our OF and Yoshida.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Good news! We finally traded an outfielder! Garcia to Pittsburgh 
 

 But we still have yoshida and our 4 outfielders and Campbell in Worcester 

Which is why Duran for Tong and Vientos makes sense (I doubt the NYM would do it).  There is almost -0- logic to keeping Duran.  It's just a matter of the best long-term return.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't get the concept at all.  We had the #9 team, had the #6 run differential, and one of the best farms in BB.  We are obviously a contender in 2026, but probably for a long time after,

Pitching carried the Sox to the '25 playoffs, but that included a career year by Chapman and a solid comeback by Giolito, before he broke down and couldn't start in the Bronx. The latter is probably gone, replaced by Gray, while we pray we'll again be happy with Chappy.

But let's get right down to it: the line-up the Red Sox ran out there in the '25 playoffs was easily the most impotent batting order Boston has ever featured in any postseason of my 60 years as a fan. Even if Anthony develops into an All-Star, the offense needs major upgrades for it to be a true contender.

And unless Breslow is going to swing trades all week for legit bats that offer both contact and power at 1B, 2B and 3B, not to mention DH, then Henry is going to have to OK spending a billion bucks on free agents. Which one of those is more likely?

So what's the sense of giving up the two best pitching prospects this club has produced since Papelbon and Lester?

 

[notin]

11 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

The issue for Henry isn’t the Sox.  It’s that Liverpool loses money and so do the Penguins.  $ from the Sox support these other parts of the Fenway Sports Group.

No idea about the Penguins, but I find it hard to believe Liverpool FC loses money…

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We're always in 'build' mode.  Right now, if the season opened tomorrow, then Duran is our DH, maybe.  The OF would be RA, CR, and WA.  FG projects Yoshida as a 111 wRC+. and Duran as 111.  Duran marginal utility to the RS is very small.  In fact, Vientos has a higher projected wRC+ than Duran. 

In fact, I could make a pretty good case that Vientos backing up Mayer, Casas and Yoshida would add more value than Duran backing up our OF and Yoshida.

This is all true, but the real conundrum is this, We need to improve our offense- it's one of the very few things everyone agrees on. We lost these top OPS+ guys from 2025

1. Devers 151

3. Refsnyder 131

4. Bregman 128

6. Lowe 121

Yet, it appears like our #8 OPS+ guy is blocked. In this context, and in a vacuum, it makes zero sense to trade Duran. The only returning players with a higher OPS+ in 2025 are:

140 Anthony (played half a season)

128 Romy (looks like a platoon guy, mostly)

116 Abreu (has been a platoon guy for years)

All of this being said, I still think trading Duran makes the most sense, but ONLY if we add two big bats in the infield (or DH.)

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

The issue for Henry isn’t the Sox.  It’s that Liverpool loses money and so do the Penguins.  $ from the Sox support these other parts of the Fenway Sports Group.

The finances in European football are so stringently ring fenced, there would be zero point moving money from the Sox to LFC as they wouldn't be able to use it. Liverpool spends to its limits and also, FSG take very little money out of it. The finances are very easily researched and broken down. 

People need to stop peddling this s***. It is utterly devoid of facts. 

[Hitch]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

No idea about the Penguins, but I find it hard to believe Liverpool FC loses money…

They're not. Like all clubs, they will spend the odd year in the red (on purpose) and some years in the green.

They are acquiring record commercial success at the club, never mind on field success, too.  

The Sox don't need to give them a penny, even if it was allowed to use that money, which they wouldn't be. Premier League football clubs have to exist in the parameters of their own turnover. 

Which is why Newcastle can't just buy the Premier League every year.

[moonslav59]

I don't want the Sox to trade away much of the future, so they don't have to spend money to fill every hole and upgrade a few slots, but there should be some leeway on trading a couple or three decent prospects or young players to fill a big hole or two.

While we do have a few higher-priced and a couple over-priced players on the roster, and Houck taking up a 2026 slot without pitching one inning, we have some very inexpensive and reasonably priced players under team control form 2+ years.

SPers:

Crochet- 6 yrs at $28.3

Bello- 5 yrs at $9.2

Gray- 1 yr at $21M & Sandoval 1 yr at $9.1M

Crawford- 3 arbs

Houck & Oviedo- 2 arbs

Pre-arb: Harrison, Dobbins, Tolle, Early and more...

RPers:

Chapman- 1 to 2 yrs at $13.3M

Whitlock- 1 yr at $7.5M

Slaten & Weissert- pre-arb

Hicks- 2 yrs at $10.3M

Pre-arbs: Moran, Kelly, Sandlin, Mullins and many more....

C:

Narvaez- pre-arb & Wong- 3arbs

1B:

Casas- 3 arbs

2B:

Romy- 3arbs & DHam- pre-arb

SS:
Story- 2 yrs at $23.3M

3B:
Mayer- pre-arb

LF:

Anthony- 8 yrs at $16.3M plus option

Duran- $7.7M then 2 arbs

Campbell- $7.5M for 7 yrs plus 2 options

CF:
Rafaela- 6 yrs at $6.3M

RF:

Abreu-pre-arb

DH:
Yoshida- 2 yrs at $18M

_________________

We lose Gray, Sandoval & Whitlock after 2026. That's it! That's about $35M coming off the books, too.

W4e lose Duran after 2027, if he's not traded before then. We also lose Yoshida and $18M and Houck plus Oviedo.

We are nicely set up for a 3+ year window.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

amen.

double amen

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This is so true, but what good does it do to keep saying it within the context of suggesting a realistic plan, when we all know it's not happening?

1. No, we all dont know that its not happening.  Its unlikely to happen, but that doesnt mean its a done deal that its not.
2. Because the posters who said it, who you are specifically referring to, in this case 5 goldgloves and Duranistheman, I look forward to their posts, and its good to see others here push back on the whole we should be thankful for what we get boot licking narrative or the money isnt correlated to success fallacy
3. Because of the people saying "dont talk about what we deserve or what we should get or what we could get, instead work within the assumption that the offensive improvements is going to revolve around casas and yoshida" are more annoying than the people you are shushing.
4. Because I believe that not saying what we could get, what we should get lets ownership and management off the hook, and we're just not going to lick boots
5. Finally, because of the people in the "dont expect much camp, most of them are also in the camp of "fans are greedy, praise be our billionaire overlords. TY for our scraps and cellphones" and its pathetic.  You are trying to manage your own expectations and prevent yourself from disappointment.  I see a distinction between that and the people saying "Henry deserves his third yacht!!!!  And I wubbbbb Casas and Yoshida and dont want to see their positions threatened"
 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Pitching carried the Sox to the '25 playoffs, but that included a career year by Chapman and a solid comeback by Giolito, before he broke down and couldn't start in the Bronx. The latter is probably gone, replaced by Gray, while we pray we'll again be happy with Chappy.

But let's get right down to it: the line-up the Red Sox ran out there in the '25 playoffs was easily the most impotent batting order Boston has ever featured in any postseason of my 60 years as a fan. Even if Anthony develops into an All-Star, the offense needs major upgrades for it to be a true contender.

And unless Breslow is going to swing trades all week for legit bats that offer both contact and power at 1B, 2B and 3B, not to mention DH, then Henry is going to have to OK spending a billion bucks on free agents. Which one of those is more likely?

So what's the sense of giving up the two best pitching prospects this club has produced since Papelbon and Lester?

 

(applauds)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

1. No, we all dont know that its not happening.  Its unlikely to happen, but that doesnt mean its a done deal that its not.
2. Because the posters who said it, who you are specifically referring to, in this case 5 goldgloves and Duranistheman, I look forward to their posts, and its good to see others here push back on the whole we should be thankful for what we get boot licking narrative or the money isnt correlated to success fallacy
3. Because of the people saying "dont talk about what we deserve or what we should get or what we could get, instead work within the assumption that the offensive improvements is going to revolve around casas and yoshida" are more annoying than the people you are shushing.
4. Because I believe that not saying what we could get, what we should get lets ownership and management off the hook, and we're just not going to lick boots
5. Finally, because of the people in the "dont expect much camp, most of them are also in the camp of "fans are greedy, praise be our billionaire overlords. TY for our scraps and cellphones" and its pathetic.  You are trying to manage your own expectations and prevent yourself from disappointment.  I see a distinction between that and the people saying "Henry deserves his third yacht!!!!  And I wubbbbb Casas and Yoshida and dont want to see their positions threatened"
 

I did not mean to imply it shouldn't be talked about. I talk about it a lot, too.

I'm not happy with JH slowing the spending and avoiding large and long deals, although I can understand why, when the vast majority fail.

I'm in the camp of "I'll believe it when I see it," and since JH has spent big before, it could happen again, but I'm only making suggested moves based on the idea that JH is not going to blow past the second tax line. I'm not even sure he goes past the first line or barely over.That's not close to "praising" greedy rich people.

It's not licking boots by claiming it's "not happen," is "not likely to happen," or "probably won't happen." I call that being realistic not accommodating or accepting it has to be that way. It is what it is. It doesn't have to be, but I'm assuming we stay near the first tax line to maybe just below the second line. There is a chance we got near the second line, but I'll be surprised, if we do.

I don't like it. There have been times I have presented suggested moves based on big spending, so I was being hypocritical to say others should not do that. I was wrong on that.

IMO, JH is not going to go "full throttle" this winter. I'm fine with others thinking he might. Most of us think he should. Maybe only Kimmi is against that idea, but she seems to only be against large and long overpay deals.