The Time Has Come: Why the Red Sox Must Trade from Their Outfield Depth This Offseason

[Alex Mayes]

Still in just the beginning stages of the offseason, the Boston Red Sox still have a giant logjam at the major league level in the outfield. There are four, and up to six, names that are starting-caliber outfielders on the 40-man roster. and they all have a chance to break spring training with the major league club in 2026. As we’ve covered multiple times here at Talk Sox, the free-agent market for virtually every position is incredibly thin and offers very little upside outside of the top four or five names that are available. While Craig Breslow expects the Red Sox to add through free agency, any huge impact will likely have to come through trades. Since the Red Sox have so much talent in the outfield, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of trading any of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, or Ceddanne Rafaela.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll consider Roman Anthony safe... unless the Dodgers put Shohei Ohtani on the trade block.

Jarren Duran

Seems best to start with the one who currently has rumors attached to him as the GM Meetings in Las Vegas wrap up. Jarren Duran’s name has come up in trade rumors since his break out 2024 season when a portion of the media and fan base believed the team should have sold high. He followed that season up with a solid, but far less impressive, 2025 campaign. The biggest pro of trading Duran is that it opens up left field for Anthony and allows Rafaela and Abreu to play their natural positions in center and right field. Both men just won Gold Gloves and shouldn’t be moved off them for anyone else on the roster.

Can Duran even play center or right? Technically yes, but he’s best suited for left field, as his throwing arm leaves a lot to be desired from any other outfield position. He continues to be an obvious fit as the centerpiece of a trade package to a team that’s willing to deal a starting pitcher back to the Red Sox. The flip side here is that Duran is a locker room favorite and a team leader. His absence would leave a void that would have to be filled, which isn't as easy as simply buying a veteran in free agency—Duran is one of the longes-tenured members of the roster.

Wilyer Abreu

Fresh off his back-to-back Gold Glove wins, it may be hard to envision the Red Sox trading the rising star that is Wilyer Abreu. Stranger things have happened though. Abreu spent a portion of the last half of the season on the injured list and when he returned, he was a shell of himself. That being said, he was second on the team in home runs and served as a spark on both sides of the ball when healthy. Similar to Duran above, the biggest pro in trading Abreu is opening up a full-time position for Roman Anthony. Anthony played a great right field before he was injured, so there should be a decent level of comfortability with him taking the position over full time.

Abreu, with an extra year of team control and several birthdays separating him from Duran, should fetch a nice haul in a trade. The biggest con in trading him is that the Red Sox may actually be selling low on his potential; he continues to get better with each passing year and hasn't even had a chance to play every day without the benefit of a platoon partner. His absence would leave a lineup that already lacked power with even fewer options. We’ve talked about how thin this free-agent market is, and unless the team plans to bring in both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso in free agency, Abreu’s departure would come close to zapping the team of its power entirely.

Ceddanne Rafaela

While it would be shocking to see the team trade Rafaela, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. He’s a first-time Gold Glove winner and plays arguably the best center field defense in the entire league. He’s shown flashes of potential on offense and has a propensity for coming through in big moments. Typically though, his offense is boom or bust and he’s best suited for the bottom of the lineup. His contract makes him a steal for most teams, and that’s likely the biggest reason he could be available for the right price this winter. The only positive that can be found from trading him is that the team could potentially upgrade his position with an offensive-minded center fielder like Cody Bellinger, but that also comes as the biggest con of moving him: the team would lose its best defender. At such a premium position like center field, losing Rafaela’s glove would put the team in a much worse position than they current are.

---

Masataka Yoshida was left off of this list because he barely played in the outfield during the 2025 season and honestly, most people expect that he will not be with the club come 2026. He’s never going to live up to his contract, but he has the ability to catch fire in a bottle and be productive. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him involved in a trade with any of the outfielders mentioned above to try and make salaries match for a second playoff-caliber starter.

The Red Sox have so much talent at positions of need for a lot of teams in the league and they’d be smart to capitalize on that as the offseason begins to progress. Remember, none of this conversation thus far has mentioned Kristian Campbell or Jhostynxon Garcia. With the GM Meetings in the rearview mirror, all eyes turn to the Winter Meetings where Craig Breslow made his biggest trade to date last year. Will history repeat itself this time around?

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[JoeBrady]

could potentially upgrade his position with an offensive-minded center fielder like Cody Bellinger

If we traded Ceddanne, we would put Anthony in CF.  The entire idea behind trading an outfielder is so that we have only three outfielders, not four.  Adding Bellinger would put as back to four.

Never happening.

[Alex Mayes]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

could potentially upgrade his position with an offensive-minded center fielder like Cody Bellinger

If we traded Ceddanne, we would put Anthony in CF.  The entire idea behind trading an outfielder is so that we have only three outfielders, not four.  Adding Bellinger would put as back to four.

Never happening.

If the Sox are in on Bellinger, I'd expect that they would be trading two of the three as Anthony profiles as a corner outfielder in the major leagues.

[Larry Cook]

We absolutely do not need to trade any of our outfielders!  But I will admit, finding someone to trade yoshida to (as impossible as that sounds) would definitely make it easier to keep the 4 outfielders we have now!!! 

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We absolutely do not need to trade any of our outfielders!  But I will admit, finding someone to trade yoshida to (as impossible as that sounds) would definitely make it easier to keep the 4 outfielders we have now!!! 

I know it sounds good to some to keep all 4 present day outfielders, but if the Red Sox are not going to sign a top of the rotation starter, which I believe they won’t then they only way is through a trade, which is where trading an outfielder would come in.

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know it sounds good to some to keep all 4 present day outfielders, but if the Red Sox are not going to sign a top of the rotation starter, which I believe they won’t then they only way is through a trade, which is where trading an outfielder would come in.

Do you really think Bres-slow can get a top of a rotation trade with Duran?  Why wouldn’t another team be more focused on all our young, but major league ready pitching???

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you really think Bres-slow can get a top of a rotation trade with Duran?  Why wouldn’t another team be more focused on all our young, but major league ready pitching???

Duran, or Abreu would just be PART of the deal. No trades, and the Red Sox will just dabble in signings just like Gio, and Buehler, which isn’t good enough.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you really think Bres-slow can get a top of a rotation trade with Duran?  Why wouldn’t another team be more focused on all our young, but major league ready pitching???

There is talk of a deal like Duran for Lodolo, which BTV says is a significant overpay by the Sox.

MN might like the many years of control Abreu has, of we can involve a third team to give MN the prospects they want, and the other teams gets Duran plus others from us.

Let's say what you want happens, and we trade Masa for some salary relief. Why would we DH Duran, when his value as an OF'er is so much higher? (Please don't say DH Anthony or rotate GG OF'ers through the position.) Duran is worth more to a team short of OF help than to us. On top of having Anthony, we also have Campbell and Jh Garcia.

YES, WE HAVE TO TRADE AN OF'er. An argument could be made to trade two (Duran + Campbell or Garica.)

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

YES, WE HAVE TO TRADE AN OF'er. An argument could be made to trade two (Duran + Campbell or Garica.)

Trading either Campbell or Garcia is more like trading prospects than trading an outfielder.  Neither will be on our opening 26.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

If the Sox are in on Bellinger, I'd expect that they would be trading two of the three as Anthony profiles as a corner outfielder in the major leagues.

Anthony profiles as a centerfielder because that's where he played in the minors.  Only you consider him a corner outfielder, I guess researching topics is a thing of the past!!

Bellinger is a joke.  He's a complete waste of time and money considering our current set of outstanding outfielders.  They are all better than Bellinger and cheaper.   Our 1Bs also are better choices than him considering his price.

Trading an outfielder seems like a need because people over estimate Abreu's skills.  He is highly overrated and that makes him a great candidate for a trade.  That way Duran can move to his best position in CF, Rafaela can go to his best position in Fenway which is RF and Anthony can play left rather than centerfield despite profiling for CF because he's the weakest defender among Rafaela, Duran and Anthony.  

With Story being injury prone and Mayer being very injury prone, Campbell is likely to finally get a fair shot at his normal SS position once the two injury prone guys go down.  Otherwise, he has no real position except DH since the bias against his defense is so great based on a small sample of plays from his rookie year in the majors that he's not going to get a fair chance to prove himself while the front office keeps genuflecting to the guy that can't stay off the IL. Be careful what you wish for Mayer fans, he was mediocre in the minors on defense with great athleticism like many others that are now playing outfield like O'Neil Cruz and Fernando Tatis.

Campbell has been an excellent hitter his entire life but knowing how Boston often evaluates swings and comes to wrong conclusions and recommends changes that hurt the player like they did with Benny, I'm not shocked that all the idiot commenters on NESN who parrot the thoughts of bad front office personnel commented enough time about his unique swing style that coaches decided his great success of the first month was just luck so they made adjustments.  Typical over coaching mistake.  Let's hope someone like the guy that worked with Devers during the off season between 2018 and 2019 works with Campbell to refix his swing and return him to stardom.

Breslow needs a 3B as his first priority whether it's Bregman or some other stud who can play defense and hit.  The SP situation is in far better shape than 3B.  Once he nails down 3B, then the #2 SP needs to be found (preferable right-handed) so there is someone to fill the gap between Crochet and Early.  The top three will be highly competitive if Breslow does his job.  The rest of the rotation can be filled from many current choices, hopefully, Tolle will be one of them once he adds a pitch.  The staff only needs one #2 SP and this team has a shot at the division if the 3B spot is filled properly.  

We are so much better off than a year ago.  Now if only they could get a real manager that doesn't choke.

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you really think Bres-slow can get a top of a rotation trade with Duran?  Why wouldn’t another team be more focused on all our young, but major league ready pitching???

No, but he could be part of the package for someone. There is also the possibility of dealing him for a haul of prospects which you flip for starting pitching. 

A lot of moving parts this winter. I wouldn't be stunned to see the four still on the roster come ST, but it would be a surprise, and one will almost certainly be traded for our other needs. 

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Anthony profiles as a centerfielder because that's where he played in the minors.  Only you consider him a corner outfielder, I guess researching topics is a thing of the past!!

Bellinger is a joke.  He's a complete waste of time and money considering our current set of outstanding outfielders.  They are all better than Bellinger and cheaper.   Our 1Bs also are better choices than him considering his price.

Trading an outfielder seems like a need because people over estimate Abreu's skills.  He is highly overrated and that makes him a great candidate for a trade.  That way Duran can move to his best position in CF, Rafaela can go to his best position in Fenway which is RF and Anthony can play left rather than centerfield despite profiling for CF because he's the weakest defender among Rafaela, Duran and Anthony.  

 

 

I don't think it's fair to say no research was done and Anthony is a centerfielder. But here's what the research says. 

Soxprospects.com 

"Strong defensive instincts make up for only average foot speed. Takes efficient routes when moving laterally, but on occasion will be a step slow reading balls over his head. Has primarily played center field, but started playing corner outfield more often in July 2024. Profiles best in the corner outfield long-term, but could play center at least at the beginning of his major league career if needed. Potential above-average defensive profile in the corner and average in center field."

mlbpipeline.com

"He has handled center field better than expected and the Red Sox believe he can stay there, though most scouts think he's destined for a corner once he slows down."

Baseball America

" Defensively, Anthony has spent most of his time in center field and prides himself on his defensive work, but he lacks the elite range of a true center fielder. His range and arm will be an asset in right or left field"

 

 

I think he'd be fine in Center field, but saying only this one poster considers him a corner outfielder and no one else is a little short sighted. 

In terms of Duran, he's range slipped and he made more erros.  That just doesn't dissappear when you move to a HARDER position.  Sometimes guys just take a step back and skills decline.  I'm not saying he can't get better moving over to CF, but I think just assuming he would be better there than LF is wrong. 

[Alex Mayes]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think it's fair to say no research was done and Anthony is a centerfielder. But here's what the research says. 

Soxprospects.com 

"Strong defensive instincts make up for only average foot speed. Takes efficient routes when moving laterally, but on occasion will be a step slow reading balls over his head. Has primarily played center field, but started playing corner outfield more often in July 2024. Profiles best in the corner outfield long-term, but could play center at least at the beginning of his major league career if needed. Potential above-average defensive profile in the corner and average in center field."

mlbpipeline.com

"He has handled center field better than expected and the Red Sox believe he can stay there, though most scouts think he's destined for a corner once he slows down."

Baseball America

" Defensively, Anthony has spent most of his time in center field and prides himself on his defensive work, but he lacks the elite range of a true center fielder. His range and arm will be an asset in right or left field"

 

 

I think he'd be fine in Center field, but saying only this one poster considers him a corner outfielder and no one else is a little short sighted. 

In terms of Duran, he's range slipped and he made more erros.  That just doesn't dissappear when you move to a HARDER position.  Sometimes guys just take a step back and skills decline.  I'm not saying he can't get better moving over to CF, but I think just assuming he would be better there than LF is wrong. 

Appreciate the support here. I'm a big fan of research and tend to do it before I write anything, haha. Some people just love to hate, it is what it is.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Trading either Campbell or Garcia is more like trading prospects than trading an outfielder.  Neither will be on our opening 26.

Agreed, but if you do trade one of the 4, an argument can be made for KC or JG to make the 26. (I's prefer bringing Ref back and having the two prospects play FT in AAA.)

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but if you do trade one of the 4, an argument can be made for KC or JG to make the 26. (I's prefer bringing Ref back and having the two prospects play FT in AAA.)

I like Ref and he still put up good metrics. Only worry to me is that he struggled against velo in '25 and it may be downhill from here. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Ref and he still put up good metrics. Only worry to me is that he struggled against velo in '25 and it may be downhill from here. 

Unless it's a steep "downhill," he has a ways to go to not be worth the measly contract he will get next season.

The guy had a better OPS (131) than Bregman (128,) and since Devers (140) is gone, only Anthony did better.

2024-2025

140 Anthony (303 PAs)

132 Refsnyder (516)

124 Duran (1431)

118 Romy (557)

112 Abreu (864)

_______

141 Devers (2 clubs)

121 Bregman (2 clubs)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Unless it's a steep "downhill," he has a ways to go to not be worth the measly contract he will get next season.

The guy had a better OPS (131) than Bregman (128,) and since Devers (140) is gone, only Anthony did better.

You are comparing a platoon bat to fulltime players. If Cora believed in his bat as much as you do, why'd he give him 100 less PA's in '25? His SLG dropped almost 100 points against 4 seamers last season. His xSLG is trending downwards against 4 seamers. It was the first year he had a negative run value against that pitch as a Red Sox. He'll be 35 and some players age quick. He did say he was thinking of retiring at one point. 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You are comparing a platoon bat to fulltime players. If Cora believed in his bat as much as you do, why'd he give him 100 less PA's in '25? His SLG dropped almost 100 points against 4 seamers last season. His xSLG is trending downwards against 4 seamers. It was the first year he had a negative run value against that pitch as a Red Sox. He'll be 35 and some players age quick. He did say he was thinking of retiring at one point. 

Yes, I am aware they are platoon bats, and that was part of the reason I included PAs to highlight that fact.

I am also aware that Ref could decline, and the comment you made was well founded. That is concerning.

I think Ref got less PAs because he got hurt and Anthony squeezed him out of the OF role, since he can hit lefties okay.

[drewski6]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You are comparing a platoon bat to fulltime players. If Cora believed in his bat as much as you do, why'd he give him 100 less PA's in '25? His SLG dropped almost 100 points against 4 seamers last season. His xSLG is trending downwards against 4 seamers. It was the first year he had a negative run value against that pitch as a Red Sox. He'll be 35 and some players age quick. He did say he was thinking of retiring at one point. 

There must be a reason because literally nobody does it, but with Worcester so close..... I really dont understand why not carry a 5 man bench (one less arm) and just use Worcester for your pitching depth so you dont wear out your farm.  But nobody does it.

Platoon guys are in though, and teams are doing it more.  Guys who havent caught in years are being asked to catch again because platoon bats are more en vogue than defense from your backup C.

Read: Give wongs roster spot to Refsnyder, and just have whoever catch 30% of the time when Nav needs a day off. Not saying I would do this, but tams are starting to.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

There must be a reason because literally nobody does it, but with Worcester so close..... I really dont understand why not carry a 5 man bench (one less arm) and just use Worcester for your pitching depth so you dont wear out your farm.  But nobody does it.

Platoon guys are in though, and teams are doing it more.  Guys who havent caught in years are being asked to catch again because platoon bats are more en vogue than defense from your backup C.

Read: Give wongs roster spot to Refsnyder, and just have whoever catch 30% of the time when Nav needs a day off. Not saying I would do this, but tams are starting to.

Carrying 12 pitchers puts the team at a disadvantage in an age where starters don't go long into games anymore. With 40 man pitchers, when you send them down, they have to stay down for a set number of days and can't be recalled wily nilly. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Carrying 12 pitchers puts the team at a disadvantage in an age where starters don't go long into games anymore. With 40 man pitchers, when you send them down, they have to stay down for a set number of days and can't be recalled wily nilly. 

But we'll have like 7 pitchers in the minors on our 40 man lol.  WE can rotate through them, haha

I know its not happening, theres a reason why there isnt one 5 man bench in baseball. They should consider it in playoffs though when teams pinch run more and theres more days off to help pitcher recovery.

When I play through a season in the show, you def feel it when you go one less pitcher.  Pitchers are always tired.  Im not actually questioning it.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

There must be a reason because literally nobody does it, but with Worcester so close..... I really dont understand why not carry a 5 man bench (one less arm) and just use Worcester for your pitching depth so you dont wear out your farm.  But nobody does it.

Platoon guys are in though, and teams are doing it more.  Guys who havent caught in years are being asked to catch again because platoon bats are more en vogue than defense from your backup C.

Read: Give wongs roster spot to Refsnyder, and just have whoever catch 30% of the time when Nav needs a day off. Not saying I would do this, but tams are starting to.

It does seem like every team used that extra roster spot for a pitcher. Teams used to carry 11 or 12 pitchers, and when they added the slot, one expected 12 or 13 pitchers, but it's almost always 13.

It seems like many posters want 9 everyday FT players who are good enough to not need to be PH for or replaced on defense later in games. If that were true, we wouldn't need a 5 man bench, but it's rarely true.

The Sox has true tremendous batters vs LHPs, who had massive splits. We also had more than 2 guys who his lefties very poorly. It made a lot of sense to platoon, and we used 2 slots for platoon- Abreu w Ref and 1B/2B w Romy. Some argued Duran should be platooned, too, but we didn't have 2 Refs, and Cora seemed to be against the idea of Duran platooning.

Now that Ref may be gone, Abrue improved vs LHPs and Romy did okay vs RHPs. maybe we will move away from that model. A lot depends on who we add. Alonso at 1B will not be platooned with Romy. Romy could platoon with Mayer or Masa, so that might not go away. I doubt we add Campbell or Garcia to the 26 as a strict, short-side platoon, so maybe that platoon ends in '26.

I'm not sure we need DHam and Sogard or Ref and Eaton. 3 catchers doesn't make sense, unless one can play elsewhere well enough.

It doesn't seem like 13 pitchers helps limit overwork and injuries, though.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see a 27 man active roster and a 42 man roster. Maybe the players get that as a payback for some sort of soft cap added after 2026.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to see a 27 man active roster and a 42 man roster. Maybe the players get that as a payback for some sort of soft cap added after 2026.

Adding an additional active players, but not increasing the 40 man was a choice! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Adding an additional active players, but not increasing the 40 man was a choice! 

Yup.

Increasing the 40 man would be a major "get" for the players (union.)

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup.

Increasing the 40 man would be a major "get" for the players (union.)

Im only board if they continue to call it the 40 man when its a max of 42.  Kind of like how the big 12 and big 10 conferences keep adding schools and are up to like 20 each now, but yet wont change the name of the conference.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Im only board if they continue to call it the 40 man when its a max of 42.  Kind of like how the big 12 and big 10 conferences keep adding schools and are up to like 20 each now, but yet wont change the name of the conference.

It only goes up in Sept and dblhrds, right?

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3 catchers doesn't make sense, unless one can play elsewhere well enough.

Didn’t Wong play some first base for us previous to 2025 ???  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Didn’t Wong play some first base for us previous to 2025 ???  

Yes. 14 games in 2024 (65 innings)

Career Innings

2445 C

66 1B

29 2B

2 LF

1 3B

 

[Larry Cook]

10 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im only board if they continue to call it the 40 man when its a max of 42.  Kind of like how the big 12 and big 10 conferences keep adding schools and are up to like 20 each now, but yet wont change the name of the conference.

There are billions of dollars of marketing behind those iconic names! 
 

no one ever marketed the name 40 Man roster