Predicting LT payroll

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is the luxury tax thread. You want the "predicting C payroll" thread. 

Oh, did you not see the first part of my post? 

Has every other post for the other 20 pages just been about luxury tax? 

You said "spend." Luxury tax has nothing to do with spending. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't believe I'm about to attempt to be a voice of reason.

Crochet is everything this team -- and any team even in a rebuild -- covets to build around: an ace, a Number One, the All-Star starter who pitches and WINS Game 1 in a playoff series (circa The Bronx '25).

If the Red Sox are dumb enough to trade Crochet, they deserve to suck and never wait til next year again.

Just like the Tigers. Say they actually do trade Skubal -- for a haul -- and even get some prospects that develop into a core of The Next Good Not Great Tigers, then they'll still be searching all over again for another ace Number One pitcher... just like Boston craved for years since Sale got hurt in the season of the best Red Sox team ever.

Keep your aces. Pay your aces. Cover your aces.

[moonslav59]

SPOTRAC has our tax number at $276M.

$284M Line 3 (2nd surcharge)

$304M Line4 (3rd surcharge)

We may try to keep around $3-8M for deadline or in season deals, although we've been shedding more salary in season than adding it, lately (thanks to Devers.)

There has been some talk of trading some of these players (listed by current AAV tax hit to the Sox.)

$18M Yoshida

$10.3M Hicks

$9.2M Bello

$9.1 Sandoval

$7.8 Duran

$7.5M Campbell

$6.3M Rafaela

$4.1M Houck

$2.8M Crawford

$1.6M Casas

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

Is there still something left to sign as a free agent, or will they manage to acquire Paredes? Otherwise, we'll have to be patient with Mayer and Campbell.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Campbell at 2B in 2026. I think they want to see how he looks in LF, but unless we trade someone, KC will be blocked by not 3 but 4 OF'ers.

We won't have KC riding the bench, so it's a near FT role on the big club or see how he looks in AAA.

If we add no infielder, this could be the infield:

1B: Contreras FT

2B: Romy/DHam v R/ Romy v L

3B: Mayer FT

SS: Story FT

 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Keep your aces. Pay your aces. Cover your aces.

That's why I always defended DD's extension for Sale.  Guys at that level are unicorns.  You might only see 2-3 of them in all of BB in any given year.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see Campbell at 2B in 2026. I think they want to see how he looks in LF, but unless we trade someone, KC will be blocked by not 3 but 4 OF'ers.

We won't have KC riding the bench, so it's a near FT role on the big club or see how he looks in AAA.

If we add no infielder, this could be the infield:

1B: Contreras FT

2B: Romy/DHam v R/ Romy v L

3B: Mayer FT

SS: Story FT

 

if this means we keep our top 3 SP prospects AND Bello I am fine with this.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

SPOTRAC has our tax number at $276M.

Cots has them at $265M.  I think the difference is the treatment of 40-man minor leaguers.  Cots is assigning them a value of $2,669,200.  Spotrac has assigned a value of $820,000 to 20 different players.  That doesn't right.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

if this means we keep our top 3 SP prospects AND Bello I am fine with this.

But why keep 6 OF'ers?

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Cots has them at $265M.  I think the difference is the treatment of 40-man minor leaguers.  Cots is assigning them a value of $2,669,200.  Spotrac has assigned a value of $820,000 to 20 different players.  That doesn't right.

Spo has $4.1M for pre-arb

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh, did you not see the first part of my post? 

Has every other post for the other 20 pages just been about luxury tax? 

You said "spend." Luxury tax has nothing to do with spending. 

I think a better troll would have been to actually post the thread, because that's what this forum needs.......another thread talking about the same damn thing we talk about everywhere else. 

Side note, was looking up cash payrolls.  Using spotrac.com, the Dodgers drop all the way down to #10 when it comes to cash payroll, behind the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox. FWIW the Sox as of right now will have the second highest cash payroll in 2030.  Which I suppose just means we have more of our young talent locked up.  

If we wanted to have an actual conversation (cringe I know) on this forum about payroll and how it relates to Henry's "cheapness" Wouldn't we want to use Cash payroll (not LT payroll) BUT add in LT paid out? Honestly I don't care enough to do the math at the moment but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are still in that 8ish range.  Although they might jump up if they make another signing (which I don't believe is coming) 

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Cots has them at $265M.  I think the difference is the treatment of 40-man minor leaguers.  Cots is assigning them a value of $2,669,200.  Spotrac has assigned a value of $820,000 to 20 different players.  That doesn't right.

And Soxpayroll has them at $268.9.  3 conflicting reports, but they all seem to be hovering around that 270 mark so I think we can definitively say they're a few million above the 2nd threshold. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's why I always defended DD's extension for Sale.  Guys at that level are unicorns.  You might only see 2-3 of them in all of BB in any given year.

Good point; I was also in favor of Sale's extension. It was below Price's market-setting deal, and Sale jumped at it -- which was suspicious, since at the time he was the most underpaid star pitcher of his day.

Even more urgently, I wanted Eovaldi extended, too. Nate was just coming into his own... 

2019-2025 WAR: Eovaldi 16.4, Sale 14.9. (stats do not include postseason, where Eovaldi went 7-2 and won another ring, while Sale was 0-1 and mostly unable to compete).

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think a better troll would have been to actually post the thread, because that's what this forum needs.......another thread talking about the same damn thing we talk about everywhere else. 

Side note, was looking up cash payrolls.  Using spotrac.com, the Dodgers drop all the way down to #10 when it comes to cash payroll, behind the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox. FWIW the Sox as of right now will have the second highest cash payroll in 2030.  Which I suppose just means we have more of our young talent locked up.  

If we wanted to have an actual conversation (cringe I know) on this forum about payroll and how it relates to Henry's "cheapness" Wouldn't we want to use Cash payroll (not LT payroll) BUT add in LT paid out? Honestly I don't care enough to do the math at the moment but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are still in that 8ish range.  Although they might jump up if they make another signing (which I don't believe is coming) 

They are 5th in luxury tax since it began behind NYY/LAD/NYM/PHI, paying approximately $55M (97% of which came before 2020). The problem is, fans got used to them being top 5 and more often top 3 for a long portion of JH's reign. I think that's why it's easy to rant about cheapness when he's still spending more than 2/3's of the league (and yes, a large part of it is due to the overwhelming revenue he brings in). 

Also, the Sox have a tendency to not see these contracts through to their end, so the idea of all these players being locked up for a certain time period does ring hollow. All we really have is what is being paid out today. Who knows what the move will be tomorrow? 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's why I always defended DD's extension for Sale.  Guys at that level are unicorns.  You might only see 2-3 of them in all of BB in any given year.

He was injured. Bad extension. Don't extend injured pitchers. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are 5th in luxury tax since it began behind NYY/LAD/NYM/PHI, paying approximately $55M (97% of which came before 2020). The problem is, fans got used to them being top 5 and more often top 3 for a long portion of JH's reign. I think that's why it's easy to rant about cheapness when he's still spending more than 2/3's of the league (and yes, a large part of it is due to the overwhelming revenue he brings in). 

Also, the Sox have a tendency to not see these contracts through to their end, so the idea of all these players being locked up for a certain time period does ring hollow. All we really have is what is being paid out today. Who knows what the move will be tomorrow? 

Well said.

These locked up players have higher AAVs than salaries, right now, but later on, they may look like bargains for tax purposes.

For years and years one of the biggest beefs Sox fans had was watching our young stars bolt as the reached prime. Now, we did something about it, and I keep hearing "same ole- same ole," when maybe it's not.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't believe I'm about to attempt to be a voice of reason.

Crochet is everything this team -- and any team even in a rebuild -- covets to build around: an ace, a Number One, the All-Star starter who pitches and WINS Game 1 in a playoff series (circa The Bronx '25).

If the Red Sox are dumb enough to trade Crochet, they deserve to suck and never wait til next year again.

Just like the Tigers. Say they actually do trade Skubal -- for a haul -- and even get some prospects that develop into a core of The Next Good Not Great Tigers, then they'll still be searching all over again for another ace Number One pitcher... just like Boston craved for years since Sale got hurt in the season of the best Red Sox team ever.

Keep your aces. Pay your aces. Cover your aces.

Crochet changed everything.  We are now a playoff team, looking to get better and the next step is deep playoff run aka true championship contender (I wont split those hairs)

He starts the clock in a way, because in a world without Crochet, we dont make the playoffs and we are talking about developing, building a core. But with Crochet, that hurdle is cleared and that is why I suspect some of us (certainly me) are more aggressive (on here) with wanting the team to be more aggressive with roster building/improving.

Im not sure how long Crochet will be at or near the top of the mountain, and thereby how long the window will last. But Im feeling a sense of urgency to maximize his prime, and thats a big reason why I really want to improve the offense.  

[drewski6]

This is probably the first time a pitcher has been my favorite Red Sock since Pedro.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Crochet changed everything.  We are now a playoff team, looking to get better and the next step is deep playoff run aka true championship contender (I wont split those hairs)

He starts the clock in a way, because in a world without Crochet, we dont make the playoffs and we are talking about developing, building a core. But with Crochet, that hurdle is cleared and that is why I suspect some of us (certainly me) are more aggressive (on here) with wanting the team to be more aggressive with roster building/improving.

Im not sure how long Crochet will be at or near the top of the mountain, and thereby how long the window will last. But Im feeling a sense of urgency to maximize his prime, and thats a big reason why I really want to improve the offense.  

Exactly. The window could slam shut at any moment with some sort of issue with Crochet. On the surface, it looks to be a 3-4 year window, and when you look at the years of control of our next 10-15 best players, most fir the 3-4 or more year timeframe.

Adding top quality, this winter was essential. We did add some quality, of which some looks to be "top" or near "top quality." I was hoping for 2 of the best of the best (Alonso or Schwarber and KMarte or Bregman,) but we added 3 instead: Suarez, S Gray & Contreras. 

If we can add Paredes without hurting another area on the 26, we might be close enough to the point of top contention you speak of.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Crochet changed everything.  We are now a playoff team, looking to get better and the next step is deep playoff run aka true championship contender (I wont split those hairs)

He starts the clock in a way, because in a world without Crochet, we dont make the playoffs and we are talking about developing, building a core. But with Crochet, that hurdle is cleared and that is why I suspect some of us (certainly me) are more aggressive (on here) with wanting the team to be more aggressive with roster building/improving.

Im not sure how long Crochet will be at or near the top of the mountain, and thereby how long the window will last. But Im feeling a sense of urgency to maximize his prime, and thats a big reason why I really want to improve the offense.  

Don't worry. Today's NESN.com dreadline lists the Red Sox as "actively" trying to win the AL East.

The other clubs include Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are actively trying to be the Yankees.

The Rays are active in their yogurt culture, giving fish with bat wings live bacteria which is supposedly beneficial to the whole division.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's why I always defended DD's extension for Sale.  Guys at that level are unicorns.  You might only see 2-3 of them in all of BB in any given year.

Not with sales body, though.  You gotta have the frame to pitch like that for that long.

Crochet will leave Sale in the dust because he works out.

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Cots has them at $265M.  I think the difference is the treatment of 40-man minor leaguers.  Cots is assigning them a value of $2,669,200.  Spotrac has assigned a value of $820,000 to 20 different players.  That doesn't right.

820*20 = 1.64, the difference is prob like Campbell (minor leaguer making more than pre-arb)

[JoeBrady]

57 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

820*20 = 1.64

Really?

[drewski6]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Really?

Meant 16.4, but when you said minor leaguers, i think you meant pre-arb.

[Hugh2]

Soxpayroll has the LT spend on players including $1.8 million still counting towards Devers at $234.395 million. 

Medical & Benefits  $18.75 million

Bonus and incentives $.10 million

Pre-Arb bonus pool $1.67 million

Minor League Costs $14 million

This all adds up to $268.915 million. 

 

I generally trust Soxpayroll more than anyone else, but Cots and other sources are so close that I think it can all be explained away by the fact that certain numbers are just estimates.  

The $234.395 and some of the other costs are 100% predictable.

But a lot of the minor league costs are just an estimate.  

No one can say with certainty how much they will spend on minor league costs.  If players underperform and injuries pile up and minor leaguers have to be called up and start earning MLB salaries....salary goes up. 

I suppose this is why you're always going to get different numbers.  Because people are going to project those costs differently. 

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

red sox payroll

This site is great and I suggest it to everyone in here. 

You can also look at projected payrolls out into 2033 and as far back as 2012

 

[Duran Is The Man]

36 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

red sox payroll

This site is great and I suggest it to everyone in here. 

You can also look at projected payrolls out into 2033 and as far back as 2012

 

they're still paying $1.8M of Devers thru 2033. LOLOLOL....the s***** trade that just keeps on giving.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they're still paying $1.8M of Devers thru 2033. LOLOLOL....the s***** trade that just keeps on giving.

Paying Hicks, too sucks.

Good site. Clean & clear.

[Hugh2]

49 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they're still paying $1.8M of Devers thru 2033. LOLOLOL....the s***** trade that just keeps on giving.

I'm not sure if they're actually paying that, I think that money still counts towards the cap.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that is his bonus being spread out for LT purposes.  It was already paid. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Minor League Costs $14 million

I generally trust Soxpayroll more than anyone else, but Cots and other sources are so close that I think it can all be explained away by the fact that certain numbers are just estimates.  

That's the mystery meat.  Maybe someone else can explain it, but my understanding is that you have contracts, arbitration, and pre-arb.  Contracts are probably perfect, and arbitration is probably 95%+ good.

So let's say you have 12 goes under contract, and 6 guys under arb.  We know that number.  That leaves 8 guys that are 0-3 years.  Wouldn't the calculation be 8 * $820,000 plus some smaller additions for year 1, 2, and 3?  I would think so.  But is there a minimum you can pay a minor leaguer if you bring him up for, say 10 days?