Predicting LT payroll

[drewski6]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We could have spent more in years past, too.

My hope is that JH sees this open window, recognize it can be 4-5 years long, and decide that now is the time he can splurge for a 4-6 year deal or two.

Maybe we can cobble together 3-4 shorter term deals that get us over the hump, but that's not an easy thing to do.

Suarez

Merrill Kelly

Polanco

Is that enough?

Prob depends a lot on if we get 1st half suarez or second half suarez. Similarly, it depends (not as much) on if we get 2025 Polanco (135 OPS+) or career average Polanco (110 OPS+)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Prob depends a lot on if we get 1st half suarez or second half suarez. Similarly, it depends (not as much) on if we get 2025 Polanco (135 OPS+) or career average Polanco (110 OPS+)

If it's all about shorter deals, these are probably the best hopes- like em or not.

Polanco has dealt with a lot of injuries, so maybe the 2025 Polanco is the real deal.

Suarez is at that age where the 2025 drop off was a sign of something serious.

I'm hoping JH agrees to at least one large and long deal. I think Alonso is the best fit for that, despite Casas still having hopes. (Casas can DH.)

If all we do is Bregman and a trade for Ryan or Lodolo, we have not improved.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If it's all about shorter deals, these are probably the best hopes- like em or not.

Polanco has dealt with a lot of injuries, so maybe the 2025 Polanco is the real deal.

Suarez is at that age where the 2025 drop off was a sign of something serious.

I'm hoping JH agrees to at least one large and long deal. I think Alonso is the best fit for that, despite Casas still having hopes. (Casas can DH.)

If all we do is Bregman and a trade for Ryan or Lodolo, we have not improved.

I think/hope if we get outbid for Schwarber/Alonso/Bregman/Bichette , theyll trade before settling on Suarez and Polanco.  Maybe more hope than think.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think/hope if we get outbid for Schwarber/Alonso/Bregman/Bichette , theyll trade before settling on Suarez and Polanco.  Maybe more hope than think.

I'm beginning to think our best hopes for a solid #2 SP'er AND a big bat are through trades- two of them.

I think we need to go all in on Ketel Marte. His ISO and SLG numbers are right up there with Schwarber and Alonso. While I hate the idea of trading away several 3-5 controlled year players to get Marte and maybe Ryan, I think we'd have enough young players and top prospects left over to keep the window open for 5 years.

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm beginning to think our best hopes for a solid #2 SP'er AND a big bat are through trades- two of them.

I think we need to go all in on Ketel Marte. His ISO and SLG numbers are right up there with Schwarber and Alonso. While I hate the idea of trading away several 3-5 controlled year players to get Marte and maybe Ryan, I think we'd have enough young players and top prospects left over to keep the window open for 5 years.

I think we can expect some big moves in the trade market this offseason. 

But they're going to spend the money too, I think the writting is on the wall with that. But will it be a big name? or 4 $10 million dollar men?

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm beginning to think our best hopes for a solid #2 SP'er AND a big bat are through trades- two of them.

I think we need to go all in on Ketel Marte. His ISO and SLG numbers are right up there with Schwarber and Alonso. While I hate the idea of trading away several 3-5 controlled year players to get Marte and maybe Ryan, I think we'd have enough young players and top prospects left over to keep the window open for 5 years.

If Marte is available , we simply HAVE to be aggressive there. Hes better than Bichette, probs.

I can see two trades, one would center around an MLB outfielder, and one being a pure prospect package.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/8/2025 at 12:06 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to believe this is true, but we've been shammed and scammed over and over. Their words ring hollow. We were competitive this year, and chose to dump the Devers salary, then did nothing at the deadline that may have cost some money. I know there was more to that choice than money, but the fact is, we traded away our best hitter during an open window season and did nothing to replace him.

Now, we say "They will," but I'm skeptical.

What would go a long way in convincing me would be to go very close to the second line. I realize this would be year two of the tax and likely force a reset in 2027, but make on of the major additions a one and done deal. Some are projecting Gleyber Torres will take a 1 year deal. Maybe Merrill Kelly takes a one and done, since he's 37. Maybe Polanco thinks one more big season could get him a multi-year big deal after 2026. (A team 2nd year option with a big buyout might lure Polanco to sign a 1 year deal.)

The second line would mean we have about $65M to spend. We could make a trade or two that add a few more $million, but $65M and one key trade could make enormous gains on how we look on paper.

$29M Alonso

$16M Suarez

$15M Polanco

$5M Matz

Trade Duran for Lodolo and Mayer, Sandlin & Garcia for Ryan.

BAM!!!!

Just say no to adding guys north of 35.

[Randy Red Sox]

wow are only about a month away of things getting started in FA. 

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If Marte is available , we simply HAVE to be aggressive there. Hes better than Bichette, probs.

I can see two trades, one would center around an MLB outfielder, and one being a pure prospect package.

Marte would be a hige get, and I think we can offer more than most teams- either in prospects or controlled talent. We gotta try.

Joe Ryan or Lodolo would be nice gets. We should be able to make two bold trades without breaking the future.

We can't do just this and sit back. We'll need a major signing or two with the 2 big trades, IMO.

I doubt we do it, but we can and should.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

If all we do is Bregman and a trade for Ryan or Lodolo, we have not improved.

I completely agree with MoonSlav — if the Red Sox only re-sign Bregman and make one trade for a No. 2 starter like Ryan or Lodolo, then no, we haven’t meaningfully improved. The front office has done a good job of quietly moving the goalposts, and if you compare the roster that finished 2025 in New York to what 2026 might look like, sure — technically we’ll look better.

But if you’re being honest and comparing Opening Day 2025 vs. Opening Day 2026, assuming our only moves are re-signing Bregman and adding one SP2, the roster is not drastically improved. That’s the apples-to-apples comparison fans should be making.

The organization has repeatedly said for months that they’re “all in” and that “the window is fully open.” If that’s true, then the 2026 Opening Day roster should reflect it. If not, then it’s clear they’re just trying to placate the fanbase while continuing to print money.

Here’s a position-by-position breakdown:

Catcher- Narváez was a pleasant surprise in 2025, and I think he takes another step in 2026.

Advantage: 2026

First Base- Casas’ health remains a major question mark. In 2025 he wasn’t available, but if he is healthy in 2026 and starting at 1B, the safer comparison still leans toward 2025 based on certainty.

Advantage: 2025

Second Base- We were basically in a platoon both years. Can Romy replicate what he did last year? He was terrific, but regression is real.

Slight advantage: 2025

Shortstop- Story played fantastic once healthy, and hopefully he repeats that in 2026.

Advantage: Neutral

Third Base- Assuming Bregman returns, the 2026 version of him should be better than the 2025 version, given how much the injury slowed him last season.
Advantage: 2026

Outfield- The rise of Roman Anthony is enormous — that alone is a huge positive going into 2026. But the other three outfielders, even with two Gold Gloves, faded offensively down the stretch. And if we trade for a SP2, Duran likely isn’t here, so comparing 2025 (with JD) vs. 2026 (without JD) still gives 2026 a slight edge — but it’s not a massive leap.

Advantage: 2026

Designated Hitter- This becomes even more important because the rest of the lineup lacks true home-run threats. In 2025, we had one of the best hitters in baseball at DH (Devers). In 2026, we’re talking about a Romy/Yoshida platoon. This is a MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE step backwards.

Advantage: 2025 (by a mile)

Starting Pitching- Crochet was everything we hoped he’d be. The rest of the rotation, despite mixed results, actually looked like a strength on paper heading into Opening Day 2025. Even if we add a true SP2, the bottom three of the rotation last year (Giolito, Buehler, Houck) offered more promise than what we’ll have on Opening Day 2026. Adding one high-end arm doesn’t fix everything.

Advantage: 2025

Bullpen- The 2025 bullpen massively exceeded expectations. Expecting the same level of dominance again without adding another high-leverage reliever is unrealistic.

Advantage: 2025

moon Slav is right if that is all we do we are not a better team. End of story.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

... if that is all we do we are not a better team. End of story.

You can bet that a few teams already ahead of us will "get better" over the winter.

Even if TOR loses Bichette and a pitcher, my guess is they still find a way to look better going into 2026.

NYY has Cole returning and will spend.

SEA looks committed to winning.

HOU has said they will reset, so maybe not them. DET may trade Skubal.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

If Marte is available , we simply HAVE to be aggressive there. Hes better than Bichette, probs.

I can see two trades, one would center around an MLB outfielder, and one being a pure prospect package.

I think this is subjective.  Both Marte and Bichette were 21 years old when they started their MLB careers. 

Bichette has 20 WAR, when Marte was Bo's age he had only put up 15.4 WAR.  Bichette is in his prime where' Marte might be good for another few years.....or not. 

I'd still roll the dice on Marte for the right price.  I feel like he can still be really good for a few more years. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think this is subjective.  Both Marte and Bichette were 21 years old when they started their MLB careers. 

Bichette has 20 WAR, when Marte was Bo's age he had only put up 15.4 WAR.  Bichette is in his prime where' Marte might be good for another few years.....or not. 

I'd still roll the dice on Marte for the right price.  I feel like he can still be really good for a few more years. 

Good rundown, here.

It's hard to compare their defense, and if Bichette plays 2B for us, we may see he's about the same as Marte.

Here is what tips me to K Marte, despite the age difference: POWER!

2023-2025:

KMarte: .236 ISO and 35 HRs per 162, .519 SLG (.887 OPS) .251 ISO '24-'25

Bichette: .154 ISO and 19 Hrs per 162, .445 SLG (.778 OPS) .146 ISO '24-'25

Now, if we get Alosno or Schwarber, I'd be fine with the secondary piece to be Bichette (or Bregman)

The second big tip to KMarte is his $19.4M lux tax line on the budget. Bichette, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber will make much more AAV. Granted, they won't cost players/prospects to get, but I want one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber.

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good rundown, here.

It's hard to compare their defense, and if Bichette plays 2B for us, we may see he's about the same as Marte.

Here is what tips me to K Marte, despite the age difference: POWER!

2023-2025:

KMarte: .236 ISO and 35 HRs per 162, .519 SLG (.887 OPS) .251 ISO '24-'25

Bichette: .154 ISO and 19 Hrs per 162, .445 SLG (.778 OPS) .146 ISO '24-'25

Now, if we get Alosno or Schwarber, I'd be fine with the secondary piece to be Bichette (or Bregman)

The second big tip to KMarte is his $19.4M lux tax line on the budget. Bichette, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber will make much more AAV. Granted, they won't cost players/prospects to get, but I want one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber.

I think one of Bichette/Bregman/Marte and one of Alonso/Schwarber and then you add a very solid or better pitcher, and most of us will be high fiving.

[Hugh2]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think one of Bichette/Bregman/Marte and one of Alonso/Schwarber and then you add a very solid or better pitcher, and most of us will be high fiving.

If you gave me Marte/Schwarber/Joe Ryan I'd be in heaven. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I think one of Bichette/Bregman/Marte and one of Alonso/Schwarber and then you add a very solid or better pitcher, and most of us will be high fiving.

Agreed.

If we get 2 out of these three, many will be happy. 

I would not see 2 out of 3 as an improvement, even if we add a couple decent 3rd or 4th additions (like Hoskins, Matz, Ref, J Bell...)

[UtahSox]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Here are a few thoughts to add to what he’s saying:

 

Toronto: They got Bieber to stay at $16M, which might end up being the steal of the decade. And the Tucker noise around them is getting louder. If they land him, that instantly wakes up the economic engine of “Canada’s Team.” They could easily be a bigger problem than people realize.

Yankees: Now heavily linked to Seager, and I still think Bellinger goes back there. He loved that short porch in right. Add in Cole returning and Schlittler emerging, and they’re clearly gearing up for a real push.

Seattle: Elite starting pitching, a top-tier farm system, and the prospect capital to pull off a big trade (Marte-type moves). The question is whether they’ll actually spend big — historically they haven’t — but the ingredients are there for them to be dangerous.

One more team to add: Baltimore:

I know a lot of people feel like the Orioles lost the trade with the Angels, but if Grayson wasn’t going to be fully healthy to start 2026, then Baltimore may have played this exactly right. They added a 100-RBI, 35+ HR bat with a .320+ OBP whose swing path and pull tendencies are tailor-made for Camden Yards. And there’s been real smoke connecting them to Cease.

Just those two “win-now” moves on a roster that massively underperformed in 2025 would make them a serious threat again.

 

Bottom line: the Red Sox have to make moves. The teams around us are getting better. 

[notin]

On 11/10/2025 at 7:19 AM, Hitch said:

That CANNOT be true, surely? 4 x $20m? Cannot be. 

I learned a long time ago not to trust these figures.

I think GMs/CBOs are not allowed to discuss negotiations publicly, but they can certainly hurt their position elsewhere by doing so and they almost never do it.  
 

Whereas agents can tell reporters anything they want to and are not accountable to anyone for it.  Also, fans believe agents 999 times out of 1,000….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Bottom line: the Red Sox have to make moves. The teams around us are getting better. 

We all know there should be no turning back now, and Cora and Breslow at least publicly agree. What we don't know is what the front office really feels about their 2026 percentages and whether to truly go for it. 

We'll know by Spring Training, if there aren't enough major moves to improve, and we hear Sam and Craig blabbing that no one wanted our prospects (and those in the industry know that every club overrates their own prospects, at least to the media, who buy in and excite fandom to sell tickets).

Teel is the White Sox starting catcher and a future All-Star, while Montgomery is now Chicago's #1 prospect. That didn't take long, but maybe Arias and Garcia don't look as promising... yet.

I've said many times that any big trades will have to include either Early, Tolle or both -- but imagine all those Asst. VPs who've been in the front office for years and have never had starting pitching prospects this good. On top of that, they now work for a CBO who is all about pitching. So don't be surprised if they hang on to the youth...

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

 

Here are a few thoughts to add to what he’s saying:

 

Toronto: They got Bieber to stay at $16M, which might end up being the steal of the decade. And the Tucker noise around them is getting louder. If they land him, that instantly wakes up the economic engine of “Canada’s Team.” They could easily be a bigger problem than people realize.

Yankees: Now heavily linked to Seager, and I still think Bellinger goes back there. He loved that short porch in right. Add in Cole returning and Schlittler emerging, and they’re clearly gearing up for a real push.

Seattle: Elite starting pitching, a top-tier farm system, and the prospect capital to pull off a big trade (Marte-type moves). The question is whether they’ll actually spend big — historically they haven’t — but the ingredients are there for them to be dangerous.

One more team to add: Baltimore:

I know a lot of people feel like the Orioles lost the trade with the Angels, but if Grayson wasn’t going to be fully healthy to start 2026, then Baltimore may have played this exactly right. They added a 100-RBI, 35+ HR bat with a .320+ OBP whose swing path and pull tendencies are tailor-made for Camden Yards. And there’s been real smoke connecting them to Cease.

Just those two “win-now” moves on a roster that massively underperformed in 2025 would make them a serious threat again.

 

Bottom line: the Red Sox have to make moves. The teams around us are getting better. 

If TOR adds Tucker, that would be huge, but if they lose Bichette, Bassitt, Scherzer and some lesser players, I'm not so sure they will be significantly better.

They seem like an up and down team to me.

The Yanks and Mariners scare me more, and both may make some gains this winter. We know NYY gets Cole back.

[Hitch]

On 11/22/2025 at 3:51 PM, notin said:

I learned a long time ago not to trust these figures.

I think GMs/CBOs are not allowed to discuss negotiations publicly, but they can certainly hurt their position elsewhere by doing so and they almost never do it.  
 

Whereas agents can tell reporters anything they want to and are not accountable to anyone for it.  Also, fans believe agents 999 times out of 1,000….

This is a fair point, but what the agent would get out of this particular lie is hard to discern. His client is still at the organisation, why make something up, when the GM can come out and say this report is absolutely false? It hardly shows his client in a good light. 

FA quotes are a lot easier to take with a pinch of salt. When the client is still at a club - less so.

[Hitch]

On 11/22/2025 at 3:41 PM, UtahSox said:

 

 

Bottom line: the Red Sox have to make moves. The teams around us are getting better. 

This doesn't really need stating. We know. The industry knows. 

Now we find out if the more conspiracy minded fans are right about this ownership.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

This is a fair point, but what the agent would get out of this particular lie is hard to discern. His client is still at the organisation, why make something up, when the GM can come out and say this report is absolutely false? It hardly shows his client in a good light. 

FA quotes are a lot easier to take with a pinch of salt. When the client is still at a club - less so.

I'm not going to make up an arbitrary number that I don't really know....who am I kidding of course I am but I wanna say like 90% of what we here is always being spilled from the player side and not the agent side.  

 

[notin]

On 11/21/2025 at 9:29 AM, moonslav59 said:

If it's all about shorter deals, these are probably the best hopes- like em or not.

Polanco has dealt with a lot of injuries, so maybe the 2025 Polanco is the real deal.

Suarez is at that age where the 2025 drop off was a sign of something serious.

I'm hoping JH agrees to at least one large and long deal. I think Alonso is the best fit for that, despite Casas still having hopes. (Casas can DH.)

If all we do is Bregman and a trade for Ryan or Lodolo, we have not improved.

If Ryan isn’t an improvement (and he certainly isn't stairs quo), why is Boston wasting time with him?

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

If Ryan isn’t an improvement (and he certainly isn't stairs quo), why is Boston wasting time with him?

Ryan is a clear improvment in the rotation.  A team that is flush with young talent, top prospects coming into their own is a good bet to provide more value this year.  Is Roman Anthony 2026 not going to be better than 2025 Roman Antony, is 2026 Marcelo Mayer not going to be better than 2025 Mayer? what about Rafaela/Abreu/Duran/Narvaez? are those guys going to regress or take steps forward? What if Casas is healthy? heck, even Bregman who missed some time could conceivably be a whole WIN more valuable in 2026 if he plays a full season. 

The opinion that if we resign Bregman and add Ryan we have not improved is a very pessimistic take. 

[Hitch]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ryan is a clear improvment in the rotation.  A team that is flush with young talent, top prospects coming into their own is a good bet to provide more value this year.  Is Roman Anthony 2026 not going to be better than 2025 Roman Antony, is 2026 Marcelo Mayer not going to be better than 2025 Mayer? what about Rafaela/Abreu/Duran/Narvaez? are those guys going to regress or take steps forward? What if Casas is healthy? heck, even Bregman who missed some time could conceivably be a whole WIN more valuable in 2026 if he plays a full season. 

The opinion that if we resign Bregman and add Ryan we have not improved is a very pessimistic take. 

Really?

We already had Bregman, so we will have lost Devers' bat and Gio, and replaced them with Ryan. And that's not at the very least, standing still? It's going backwards in a hurry for me.

You can say Bregman might be a win extra, but you can also say that he's a year older and maybe his body is at the beginning of the breaking down cycle and he loses more time (and range). You can say Mayer is going to be better, but you can also say his performance (the little we've seen of it so far) might trend downwards (ala Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson), not to mention he has been injury prone for three years. You can say Story doesn't repeat last year. 

There's also the chance that we trade Duran or Abreu for a No2 (or just for prospects), so not only have we not replaced Devers bat we've lost one of our better outfield attacking weapons, too. 

Every team will be hoping for progressions from their younger players, and less injuries to their stars. If you plan for the future by hoping that everything/most things trend in your favour, you're setting yourself up for failure. 

[mvp 78]

On 11/21/2025 at 11:32 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

Just say no to adding guys north of 35.

I will not stand for this ageism. 🤬

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

If Ryan isn’t an improvement (and he certainly isn't stairs quo), why is Boston wasting time with him?

How is he not an improvement? 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Really?

We already had Bregman, so we will have lost Devers' bat and Gio, and replaced them with Ryan. And that's not at the very least, standing still? It's going backwards in a hurry for me.

You can say Bregman might be a win extra, but you can also say that he's a year older and maybe his body is at the beginning of the breaking down cycle and he loses more time (and range). You can say Mayer is going to be better, but you can also say his performance (the little we've seen of it so far) might trend downwards (ala Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson), not to mention he has been injury prone for three years. You can say Story doesn't repeat last year. 

There's also the chance that we trade Duran or Abreu for a No2 (or just for prospects), so not only have we not replaced Devers bat we've lost one of our better outfield attacking weapons, too. 

Every team will be hoping for progressions from their younger players, and less injuries to their stars. If you plan for the future by hoping that everything/most things trend in your favour, you're setting yourself up for failure. 

I don't think we "stand still" but adding Ryan ISN'T standing still and yes I assume some of the young guys will take a step forward.  I believe in ROmany Anthony and the others. 

I can't predict the future, neither can you.  Comparing us the Orioles? I suppose that's fair.  A lot of these guys could go in the opposite direction and take steps backwards.  But I think that would be 100% on brand with my comment when I said that would be a "a very pessimistic take" 

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The opinion that if we resign Bregman and add Ryan we have not improved is a very pessimistic take. 

Redonkulous take TBH.