A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BTV has a logic and a system, but there's something wrong with the notion that a comp pick of an unknown amateur "prospect" who hasn't played one inning of pro ball has more value than a Major League starting pitcher with a 9-1 won-loss record and 2.69 ERA for a last place team. 

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

Of course they base it on dollars, but does that always make sense?

Even if a team or owner (cough, Henry) eschews market prices for ballplayers, isn't the goal of a contending roster to include winning All-Stars on the payroll? 

It's hard to win when you're afraid to eschew more than you can swallow.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course they base it on dollars, but does that always make sense?

Even if a team or owner (cough, Henry) eschews market prices for ballplayers, isn't the goal of a contending roster to include winning All-Stars on the payroll? 

It's hard to win when you're afraid to eschew more than you can swallow.

In today’s game, it’s all about dollars.  I can promise in the ongoing CBA negotiations, no one will utter the phrase “All Star” and it will be completely omitted from the agreement.

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

It really is weird.  The CBO can point to a lot of good moves, but nobody loves you when you're playing .400 ball in June.

Hopefully things are now turning around. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BTV has a logic and a system, but there's something wrong with the notion that a comp pick of an unknown amateur "prospect" who hasn't played one inning of pro ball has more value than a Major League starting pitcher with a 9-1 won-loss record and 2.69 ERA for a last place team. 

Agreed. All they look at is 3 months of Gray's value minus his salary vs 5-6 years of the average value of a B Comp Pick.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

I mentioned this before. Also, Coulombe has done pretty well, too! After last night's Chapman performance, Coulombe now has the best OPS Against on the staff!

50+ PAs Against

.580 Coulombe

.581 Chapman

.586 Tolle (hard to do as a starter)

.605 Moran (done with rehab)

.606 Bennett (second rookie leading the rotation)

.607 Suarez (great signing by Brez)

.614 Kelly (in AAA)

.620 Whitlock (not a typo)

.639 Guerrero (another hidden gem addition)

.663 Gray (great trade, and got STL to pay $20M1)

____________________

.713 Samaniego (another Brez add)

.725 Weissert (meh)

.726 Early (3rd rookie in rotation)

.764 Watson (double meh)

__________________

.818 Crochet

.852 Bello

.871 Slaten

Whodathunk these 3 would be the bottom-dwellers?

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

PLUS BENNETT!!!

It might be the 3-4 best off seeason adds in a single season in Sox history.

Note: we are just halfway through the season, so this could change.

Add Durbin, Coulombe, Guerrero, Seigler, Monasterio & IKF.

What have we heard a lot of?

Harrison, Drohan, DHam and Jordan. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

It's $40M

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It really is weird.  The CBO can point to a lot of good moves, but nobody loves you when you're playing .400 ball in June.

Hopefully things are now turning around. 

Yup.

The situation was similar to Bloom's, except Bloom didn't make 3 great moves like these in his whole time with the Sox! LOL

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

PLUS BENNETT!!!

It might be the 3-4 best off seeason adds in a single season in Sox history.

Theo added Schilling, Foulke and ARod for a second, and that turned out alright.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Theo added Schilling, Foulke and ARod for a second, and that turned out alright.

ARod- LOL

Technically: Schilling, Foulke and Reese?

Maybe 2003 was better: Ortiz, Mueller, Millar/Kim/Timlin

[moonslav59]

Last Offseason- not including draft picks and IFA:

Traded: Harrison, Drohan, Fitts, DHam, Dobbins, Bernardino,  Perales, Hicks, Grissom, C Murphy, Jh Garcia, Hoppe, Sandlin, Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, L Guerrero, Aita, Reimer, Galle

(lost and regained: Paez & Bastardo/ Gained and lost: T Gray)

Acquired: Suarez, Contreras, S Gray, Bennett, Durbin, IKF, Coulombe, Monasterio, Seigler, Oviedo, T Guerrero, Samaniego, Watson, Gasper, Cheng, Kahnle, Ziehl, I Jackson, Thaiss, Delay, N Baez, Ro. Hernandez, L Heyman, A Guzman

________________________

2024-2025 Winter:

Traded: Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, Booser, Gasper, E Valdez, Wikelman, Elmer Rod

Added: Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler, J Wilson, Narvaez, Newcomb, Burdi, Moran, Eaton, Fajardo, Fulmer, Vogatsky

_________________________

2023-2024 Winter:

Traded: Sale, Verdugo, Schreiber, Urias, Ammons, Robertson & Santos, 

Added: Giolito, O'Neill, Romy, Fitts, Weissert, Slaten, Hendriks, Criswell, Grissom, Joely Rod, Heineman, Sandlin, I Campbell, Judice

I probably missed a few.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospeccts.com podcast listed the core 5 as: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Anthony and Rafaela (borderline)

Next tier 1A: Early, Bennett & Abreu (They have confidence in the pitching pipeline, so maybe can trade Early or Bennett, since they can be replaced. "Big chips to get a bat." Need to balance with a RHP starter, at some point. Eyanson + vets Crawford-Houck-Oviedo)

Core/Keepers? Contreras, Mayer, Whitlock, Slaten (Would listen on offers)

 

[cp176]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Soxprospeccts.com podcast listed the core 5 as: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Anthony and Rafaela (borderline)

Next tier 1A: Early, Bennett & Abreu (They have confidence in the pitching pipeline, so maybe can trade Early or Bennett, since they can be replaced. "Big chips to get a bat." Need to balance with a RHP starter, at some point. Eyanson + vets Crawford-Houck-Oviedo)

Core/Keepers? Contreras, Mayer, Whitlock, Slaten (Would listen on offers)

 

Nothing would make me trade Early for sure and likely Bennett as well.  Two kids who don’t overthrow and who are learning on the fly.  I would trade Houck, Crawford, and Oviedo before I would trade either of those two.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Nothing would make me trade Early for sure and likely Bennett as well.  Two kids who don’t overthrow and who are learning on the fly.  I would trade Houck, Crawford, and Oviedo before I would trade either of those two.

So you want to trade the injured guys.🤔. I’m trading anyone who can get me a legit big bat.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

I've been saying this since April.  The issue isn't the off-season acquisitions.  It is the guys that were already on the team. Substitute their 2025 numbers for their 2026 numbers for Story, Anthony, Narvaez, and Duran, and we have a better-than-average OPS.

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I've been saying this since April.  The issue isn't the off-season acquisitions.  It is the guys that were already on the team. Substitute their 2025 numbers for their 2026 numbers for Story, Anthony, Narvaez, and Duran, and we have a better-than-average OPS.

If we had our 2025 players play like 2025 with our 2026 additions we’d be in first place right now.

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If we had our 2025 players play like 2025 with our 2026 additions we’d be in first place right now.

 

Several players from the 2025 team were approaching prime or at peak prime. They should have done better and not just the same.

A few players were young enough that projecting improvement was not justified. Call it the "sophomore slump" and some players have down seasons year 3 or 4, too, but too many are doing worse (Durbin & Mayer), way worse (Narvaez) or are hurt (Anthony.) Blame Brez and ourselves for hoping for better than what these guys have given us, but these 4 hurt us badly. (Durbin is seeking redemption.)

Abreu plateau'd in peak prime. Duran fell sharply just as he reached the "peak" years. Yoshida is in prime and got worse.

Story was already past peak prime, but not so far past that this type of cliff dive was to be expected. The injury seemed like a near blessing,

Wong bounced back. Rafaela continued the normal bell curve rise as he gets closer to prime. 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS at 2B (.619) and SS (.600) are the worst in MLB- no surprise. It's nothing new.

Story was the last major attempt to fix the issue, and then Bogey bolted a year later.

[moonslav59]

I'd say our two top needs are big bats and a SS. A decent hitting or big bat hitting SS and and the same at 2B would be ideal, but DH or C would fit, too.

SS: We aren't getting Witt, Lopez, McGonigle or Colsen Montgomery, but CJ Abrams at #5 in SS fWAR this year might be available. Neto at 14th would  be hard to pry from the LAA. For those who want Willy Adams, he has a zero fWAR this year. He has the same OPS (.705) as IKF. The hope would be he can return to his old form, but I'm tired of hearing that. Abrams is at .864 and would be the prize. I doubt MIN trades one of their 3 middle infielders Kreidler (.877) Lee (.750) or Keaschall (.647)

2B: B Lowe at .815 looks like the best target at 2B. Arraez is at .812, but I think his decline will return. KMarte is at .790, now and may also be declining. He's still owed a chunk of change, too. Gleyber Torres (.790) might be the easiest to acquire, since he is a rental on a team going nowhere fast. 

C: I gotta go with Ryan Jeffers (.949) as he could DH, too. I've wanted him for years. Goodman (.856) has some decent road numbers, so he's not all that COL padded. He can DH, play 1B and corner OF as well.

DH: Yordan (1.031) would be super costly. Soto (.975) is too expensive for JH.  O'Hearn (.820) or Horwitz (.842) could be a target.

Realistically, maybe Abrams would be too costly, but he'd be my #1 target. Maybe the best we could hope for is BLowe and Jeffers/Goodman/O'Hearn/Horwitz.

Is that enough to give up some future for?

[Bellhorn04]

Fun with small samples: Seigler has a 0.6 bWAR in 12 games.  Extrapolates to 7.5 for 150 games. 😁

[UtahSox]

On 6/28/2026 at 12:53 PM, moonslav59 said:

Best case scenario:

Durbin hits .750+ the rest of his time with BOS and plays near GG defense at 3B.

Arias is called up and hits the ground running with plus defense at SS and a plus bat from day 1.

That still leaves 2B wide open- something it's been since Pedey was healthy over a decade ago.

Romy can and maybe should DH more than play 2B/1B.

Mayer looks like the best odds on being the next best 2Bman, going forward. He's pretty good on D, which is better than we've seen over the last decade plus, but .650 ain't cutting it, and his leash is shortening. Injuries are another major concern for him.

IKF is on the IL and sees his control end after this season.

Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard & Cheng are not solutions- neither is Capra, Romero or other farm hopefuls. Winnay may surprise, but other than Arias, we don't have much hope in AA and AAA in non 1B infield promise.

Godbout has a "early 2028" ETA on soxprospects.com, so maybe he can help in a couple years, but we've put off fixing 2B for way too long. Waiting for Arias or Godbout seems like punting the problem, once again. Soto & Ramos are 3+ years away.

We need a proven bat @ 3b, 2b, or SS. Durbin would translate well to 2b if the right 3b came available. 
Trade chips right now: Mayer, Early, Witherspoon , Duran, maybe Eyanson, or Arias for a big enough bat……. Targets Marte, Maikel Garcia, Masyn Winn, CJ Abrams. 
 

[UtahSox]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Fun with small samples: Seigler has a 0.6 bWAR in 12 games.  Extrapolates to 7.5 for 150 games. 😁

Doesn’t strike out a lot… this lineup is hitting ball more great to see. Seigler was a former 1st rder solid on D too. Gaspar experiment is over. 

[UtahSox]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say our two top needs are big bats and a SS. A decent hitting or big bat hitting SS and and the same at 2B would be ideal, but DH or C would fit, too.

SS: We aren't getting Witt, Lopez, McGonigle or Colsen Montgomery, but CJ Abrams at #5 in SS fWAR this year might be available. Neto at 14th would  be hard to pry from the LAA. For those who want Willy Adams, he has a zero fWAR this year. He has the same OPS (.705) as IKF. The hope would be he can return to his old form, but I'm tired of hearing that. Abrams is at .864 and would be the prize. I doubt MIN trades one of their 3 middle infielders Kreidler (.877) Lee (.750) or Keaschall (.647)

2B: B Lowe at .815 looks like the best target at 2B. Arraez is at .812, but I think his decline will return. KMarte is at .790, now and may also be declining. He's still owed a chunk of change, too. Gleyber Torres (.790) might be the easiest to acquire, since he is a rental on a team going nowhere fast. 

C: I gotta go with Ryan Jeffers (.949) as he could DH, too. I've wanted him for years. Goodman (.856) has some decent road numbers, so he's not all that COL padded. He can DH, play 1B and corner OF as well.

DH: Yordan (1.031) would be super costly. Soto (.975) is too expensive for JH.  O'Hearn (.820) or Horwitz (.842) could be a target.

Realistically, maybe Abrams would be too costly, but he'd be my #1 target. Maybe the best we could hope for is BLowe and Jeffers/Goodman/O'Hearn/Horwitz.

Is that enough to give up some future for?

I don’t know i could see Royals blowing their deal up on Witt, and he obviously wouldn’t fetch anywhere near his BTV. But Witt for Arias, Mayer, Early, Eyanson, Gonzalez, Soto. They have to listen….. and it would set us up at SS for a LONG time.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Doesn’t strike out a lot… this lineup is hitting ball more great to see. Seigler was a former 1st rder solid on D too. Gaspar experiment is over. 

Nice. Cheng has a better fWAR (-0.1) than Story and Mayer.

Eaton is at +0.2 in just 25 PAs. That's over 5.0 in 650 PAs.

How about IKF at 1.1 having the same fWAR as Correa and Volpe? He's better than Bichette (0.9) Lindor & JP Crawford (0.7) Seager (0.6) and of course DHam at 0.3 (with 90 more PAs) T Turner is at 0.2 and Willy Adams at 0.0.

The worst 4 primarily SSs in MLB:

-0.6 E Tovar

-0.5 Story

-0.5 L Acuna

-0.2 Mayer

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox OPS at 2B (.619) and SS (.600) are the worst in MLB- no surprise. It's nothing new.

Story was the last major attempt to fix the issue, and then Bogey bolted a year later.

One of the B-Ref stats I like is the sOPS+, which shows our OPS relative to the rest of the league.

• C  92
• 1B 127
• 2B 78
• SS 72
• 3B 101
• LF 79
• CF 107
• RF 115
• DH 71

Catcher was better than I thought.  2B maybe improves with Romy, despite his career-ending 0-4.  IKF is playing over his head, but should be an improvement as SS when he returns.  Having a weakness at both LF and DH argues in favor of adding a DH.  Even if Duran returns to form, we'd still need a DH, and I don't think we should count on RA.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

We need a proven bat @ 3b, 2b, or SS. Durbin would translate well to 2b if the right 3b came available. 
Trade chips right now: Mayer, Early, Witherspoon , Duran, maybe Eyanson, or Arias for a big enough bat……. Targets Marte, Maikel Garcia, Masyn Winn, CJ Abrams. 
 

To me, it's...

Abrams and BLowe

Jeffers or Goodman might work.

3 from these 4 might be enough.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

One of the B-Ref stats I like is the sOPS+, which shows our OPS relative to the rest of the league.

• C  92
• 1B 127
• 2B 78
• SS 72
• 3B 101
• LF 79
• CF 107
• RF 115
• DH 71

Catcher was better than I thought.  2B maybe improves with Romy, despite his career-ending 0-4.  IKF is playing over his head, but should be an improvement as SS when he returns.  Having a weakness at both LF and DH argues in favor of adding a DH.  Even if Duran returns to form, we'd still need a DH, and I don't think we should count on RA.

If they think Anthony will return, we won't get a DH, but yes, I suggested O'Hearn or Horwitz and maybe Jeffers/Goodman could DH when not catching.

Abrams, BLowe & Jeffers would be great, but getting one might be all any of us can hope for.

BLowe & O'Hearn from PIT?

Jeffers & a middle IF'er from MIN?

BLowe from PIT  & Jeffers from MN is maybe the very best we might do.

[UtahSox]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, it's...

Abrams and BLowe

Jeffers or Goodman might work.

3 from these 4 might be enough.

What are Goodman stats away from Coors? That would be amazing. 

[JoeBrady]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The hope would be he (Adames)  can return to his old form, but I'm tired of hearing that. Abrams is at .864 and would be the prize.

Just speculating, but Adames' old form is about a 110 OPS+ with about 30 HRs.  Since the start of May, he has a .773 OPS with 11 HRs in 199 ABs.  I'd argue that he has already returned to his old form.  I also think that Oracle is suppressing his numbers.  IMO, the backloading of his contract is an issue, and that SF has to pay for that, as well as pay for some of his age 34 & 35 seasons.  But I have little doubt about his current performance.

IRT CJ, I don't think the Nats would trade him.  They are finally contenders for the first time in a while.