A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

These are not guys who you count on to be your primary offensive providers

It's still a surprise.  FG projected .683 for Narvaez, .735 for Story, and .802 for Anthony.  So .563, .547, and .675 are surprises.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Frankly, its just easier and more consistent to improve your run differential by increasing your offense vs having to have lights out SP, RP, AND defense.  

That could well be true.  But run differential will still tell you what your record will be.  The more you outscore your opponent, the better your record will be.

[vegasbob]

54 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Like us, or the league?  I doubt we see much of a work stoppage, if any.  The RS, well, they have a lot of variables.  But my guess on the payroll is about $210-215M, so we'll have $40M to spend before hit the first cap, and maybe $80M before we start seeing some pushback.

I want to save this one for reference because I don't think you could be more wrong.  There will be an extended stoppage before play may resume in July 2027

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's still a surprise.  FG projected .683 for Narvaez, .735 for Story, and .802 for Anthony.  So .563, .547, and .675 are surprises.

Those are significant swings, and Duran (.762> .624) & Durbin's (.746> .636) are also well below projections, but we also have a few plusses:

Contreras: .785> .896 (+111)

Rafaela: .725> .785 (+60)

Wong: .674> .750 (+76)

IKF: .651> .705 (+54)

[moonslav59]

We won 89 games, last year and many of us projected 90 or more this year, as it looked like the AL got worse, overall (and it did.) Even Fred projected 90 wins (and missing play playoffs) as he must have expected the AL to dominate.

I heard Brez said they felt they improved from the EOY roster last year, and was mocked by one podcast I watched for saying that.

[vegasbob]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We won 89 games, last year and many of us projected 90 or more this year, as it looked like the AL got worse, overall (and it did.) Even Fred projected 90 wins (and missing play playoffs) as he must have expected the AL to dominate.

I heard Brez said they felt they improved from the EOY roster last year, and was mocked by one podcast I watched for saying that.

The irony is that  on paper by stats and projections, Brez could be technically correct .

But for multiple failures to start and various injuries , the results are bad

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Those are significant swings, and Duran (.762> .624) & Durbin's (.746> .636) are also well below projections, but we also have a few plusses:

Contreras: .785> .896 (+111)

Rafaela: .725> .785 (+60)

Wong: .674> .750 (+76)

IKF: .651> .705 (+54)

There is no way to model this, since half the players do better and half do worse,   But figured Contreras, Raffy, Abreu, Durbin, and Mayer don't surprise me with the +/-.  Wong & IKF don't have enough PAs to surprise one way or another.

But I was surprised by just how far off Duran is and should've included him.  I've done this exercise before, but if Story, Narvaez, and Anthony hit their FG projections, the RS would have a .721, good for 16th.  If we include Duran reaching his FG projection, then our OPS is .738, good for 7th.

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

The irony is that  on paper by stats and projections, Brez could be technically correct .

But for multiple failures to start and various injuries , the results are bad

That's basically my point.  This was never going to be a great offense, but they projected to be much better.