A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about Duran or Abreu at 1B? 

Duran, yes. Abreu is a GG RF'er in a difficult park.

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know they belong in the OF for those very reasons. but we do have a glut of outfielders and no 1B. again, i know Casas is the 1B but i no longer count on him for anything. but hey...don't listen me, lets go with Toro again.

It's the offseason. They can either sign a fulltime guy or trade for one. 

Last year they were planning on Casas being there for 140 games. They can't do that this year. 

[moonslav59]

I get the idea of not trading away one of your top 3 offensive, when you then say we need to add offense. Moving Duran to 1B is cheaper than signing one, and it makes room for Anthony in the OF and improves OF D.

Having more money can help us sign a better player or another one (3B and 2B or P)

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get the idea of not trading away one of your top 3 offensive, when you then say we need to add offense. Moving Duran to 1B is cheaper than signing one, and it makes room for Anthony in the OF and improves OF D.

Having more money can help us sign a better player or another one (3B and 2B or P)

They don't need MORE money to sign the players. They already have it. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't need MORE money to sign the players. They already have it. 

You can say that all you want, and it is true, but the reality is, there will be a budget limit, this winter.

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can say that all you want, and it is true, but the reality is, there will be a budget limit, this winter.

10th highest spending ballclub. 

Celebrate good times come on!!!!

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

10th highest spending ballclub. 

Celebrate good times come on!!!!

Nothing to celebrate.

The reality has been that JH is not opening his wallet as wide as others. It does no good to keep saying "He can..."

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nothing to celebrate.

The reality has been that JH is not opening his wallet as wide as others. It does no good to keep saying "He can..."

Let's not hold him to a standard he was setting just 6 years ago then! 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Let's not hold him to a standard he was setting just 6 years ago then! 

 

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Let's not hold him to a standard he was setting just 6 years ago then! 

Who is doing that?

I have zero expectations on his spending. I'm thinking he won't go over the tax line, but he may do it, or get $1M below or $20M below.

He used to spend in cycles.

He spent a ton, last winter, along with several significant extensions, then dumped Devers and watched Breggie opt out.

We are at square one and don't know what square one is. There is no "standard."

I keep hearing "He can spend if he wants," but that rings hollow, to me. It's true, but so what? It matters little.

[mvp 78]

It matters because Sox fans spend the 3rd most in all of MLB. To be run out of the WC round by the Yankees and not try to come back even stronger next season is TURTLING. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It matters because Sox fans spend the 3rd most in all of MLB. To be run out of the WC round by the Yankees and not try to come back even stronger next season is TURTLING. 

It doesn't matter saying it. It accomplishes nothing. It sounds like offering false hopes- like if JH just reads this, he may spend more, or if more of us say it, it will make a difference.

Of course, it matters. JH & Co. could spend more, and so can every other team.

Yes, we make more than almost all the other teams, which justifies spending more, but it does nothing to me to hear people say hundreds of times, "but he CAN spend more."

[Larry Cook]

On 10/18/2025 at 7:37 AM, Old Red said:

Brez traded Sale, and traded for Crochet giving up some prospects, so he will make moves. As for signing a high priced FA to a long term contract I’ll believe it when I see it.

Sale has 1 year left on his contract and his stuff is absolutely filthy still!  
Atlanta needs pitching and we got some to spare!!  
 

seems to me, this is a trade that can happen with very little effort! 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Sale has 1 year left on his contract and his stuff is absolutely filthy still!  
Atlanta needs pitching and we got some to spare!!  
 

seems to me, this is a trade that can happen with very little effort! 

They won't hand him away, but they may be looking to cut some salary.

Sean Murphy would be a nice pair to trade for. He could catch and maybe DH some or learn to play 1B.

I'm not sure what they'd want, but it won't be easy or cheap.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Sale has 1 year left on his contract and his stuff is absolutely filthy still!  
Atlanta needs pitching and we got some to spare!!  
 

seems to me, this is a trade that can happen with very little effort! 

It’s like Arthur Hunnicutt came back from the dead to post on Talk Sox…

[Larry Cook]

Bres-slow has said he is hunting a number 2 starting pitcher. 

What has bres-slow done in the past to acquire pitchers 

1.) sign starters coming off surgery to two year contracts knowing the first year they will not pitch for us! 
2,) trades! Crochet was a home run! May was a complete failure. 
 

bres-slow has a lot of quality arms in the funnel that need a little longer to be ready, dobbins, fitts, early, tolle and Witherspoon 

so maybe bres-slow goes for veterans (with post season experience) on very short deals! 
 

Seems like there are several guys that would fit us perfectly. 
But Sale should be on the top of the list. We have the assets that the braves would crave, 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Bres-slow has said he is hunting a number 2 starting pitcher. 

What has bres-slow done in the past to acquire pitchers 

1.) sign starters coming off surgery to two year contracts knowing the first year they will not pitch for us! 
2,) trades! Crochet was a home run! May was a complete failure. 
 

bres-slow has a lot of quality arms in the funnel that need a little longer to be ready, dobbins, fitts, early, tolle and Witherspoon 

so maybe bres-slow goes for veterans (with post season experience) on very short deals! 
 

Seems like there are several guys that would fit us perfectly. 
But Sale should be on the top of the list. We have the assets that the braves would crave, 

Brez has been all hot or miss on SP'er additions, with very few in the middle.

Crochet trade: great

Crochet extension: looks great, so far,

Sale trade: biggest bust under his tenure.

Giolito: started off badly, but worked out okay. (The one middle of the road add.)

Sandoval: so far TBD, but he was supposed to give us 1-2 months in 2025.

Buehler: Big waste of $21M

Priester: great get (N Yorke) but TBD trade (looked bad for 2025, but Holobetz, YRod and J bello TBD.)

Fitts: could work out okay. (Weissert had been the prize.)

Criswell: good deal for a flyer add.

D May: Deadline trade bust.

Paxton: near deadline bust

Newcomb: shoulda kept him for the pen.

That's a lot of moves for 2 seasons, and I did not include drafted SP'ers.

 

 

[moonslav59]

We have some very nice rotation depth but do need a solid #2.

Crochet

_______

Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts (Houck '27)

Early, Tolle, Holobetz, Clarke, Paez, Aita, Wehunt

Criswell, Winkowski, Uberstine, Drohan, Monegro

Valera, Fajardo, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson

Tygart, Neely, Travieso, J Bello, Morgan, Patton, Delzine, Cason

[moonslav59]

VTek expected to sign extension soon to be back as a coach for the Sox.

Soteropulos was promoted to assistant hitting coach.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez has been all hot or miss on SP'er additions, with very few in the middle.

Crochet trade: great

Crochet extension: looks great, so far,

Sale trade: biggest bust under his tenure.

Giolito: started off badly, but worked out okay. (The one middle of the road add.)

Sandoval: so far TBD, but he was supposed to give us 1-2 months in 2025.

Buehler: Big waste of $21M

Priester: great get (N Yorke) but TBD trade (looked bad for 2025, but Holobetz, YRod and J bello TBD.)

Fitts: could work out okay. (Weissert had been the prize.)

Criswell: good deal for a flyer add.

D May: Deadline trade bust.

Paxton: near deadline bust

Newcomb: shoulda kept him for the pen.

That's a lot of moves for 2 seasons, and I did not include drafted SP'ers.

 

 

Liam Hendricks?? Brez will certainly(?) decline the mutual option for next season and pay him the $2M buyout. so....this means that Henry will have paid Hendricks $8,000,000 dollars for all of 13.2 innings of work. brilliant strategy their Brez. LOLOLOLOL

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Liam Hendricks?? Brez will certainly(?) decline the mutual option for next season and pay him the $2M buyout. so....this means that Henry will have paid Hendricks $8,000,000 dollars for all of 13.2 innings of work. brilliant strategy their Brez. LOLOLOLOL

Sometimes the gamble works and sometimes the gamble fails!  
 

I do not think it is fair to just a man’s gamble using 20/20 hindsight! 
 

[Duran Is The Man]

41 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Sometimes the gamble works and sometimes the gamble fails!  
 

I do not think it is fair to just a man’s gamble using 20/20 hindsight! 
 

they keep making the same freaking bet. and it loses every. single. time. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Liam Hendricks?? Brez will certainly(?) decline the mutual option for next season and pay him the $2M buyout. so....this means that Henry will have paid Hendricks $8,000,000 dollars for all of 13.2 innings of work. brilliant strategy their Brez. LOLOLOLOL

Hendriks was a RP'er. I only listed starters, and brace yourself: it will be $10M for Hendriks, not $8M.

It's not that Brez has done awful with pen additions. Our pen has done very well under Brez. 2024-2025: 10.3 pen fWAR placed 6th in MLB.

Brez Pen Adds:

Chapman: the best season by a Sox closer EVAH!

Slaten: 4.24 (34 IP '25) & 2.93 (55 IP in '24)

Weissert: 2.28 (67 IP '25) & 3.13 (63 IP in '24)

Wilson: 3.35 (48 IP '25)

Matz: 2.08 (22 IP '25)

 

Newcomb: 3.38 (19 IP '25)

Alcara: 3.31 (16 IP '25)

Burdi: 0.00 (5 IP '25)

Meh:

Chase Anderson: 4.11 (50 IP '24)

Shugart 4.15 in 9 IP ('24)

BUST: Hicks, I Campbell, B Keller, Joely, Horn & Hendricks

 

[Larry Cook]

38 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they keep making the same freaking bet. and it loses every. single. time. 

Maybe you are correct and bres-slow needs to pivot and find a new strategy 

[moonslav59]

How about trading for Peralta ($8M/1 remaining.)

They could use a 1Bman to replace Hoskins. I'm not sure they want to take a big flyer on Casas, but Romy might be someone the want. They'd probably like some pen help or one of our younger SP'ers, but no way they get Early, Tolle or other top pitching prospects for 1 year of Peralta.

Would MIL accept:

Casas & Crawford or Dobbins?

Romy & Harrison or Perales?

Maybe we'd need to add Dandlin or Mullins. Maybe offering Harrison, Perales or Dobbins is too much.

Casas or Romy plus Crawford?

Could we do this with a Duran for Lodolo deal?

Crochet, Lodolo, Peralta, Bello and _____ (Sandoval/Harrison/Dobbins/Early/Tolle/Perales)

Spend the winter budget on a couple big bats.

 

[moonslav59]

How about Casas, Kelly & Crawford for Peralta and Duran, Dobbins, Sandlin & Perales for K Marte.

Sign Alonso, Ref & Matz.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Abreu RF/R Ref RF

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C 

9. R Rafaela CF

 

 

[cp176]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Casas, Kelly & Crawford for Peralta and Duran, Dobbins, Sandlin & Perales for K Marte.

Sign Alonso, Ref & Matz.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Abreu RF/R Ref RF

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C 

9. R Rafaela CF

 

 

I’d be very very careful when it comes to giving up any young pitching prospect in any trade.  I would tend to horde pitching prospects.  I would emphasize going the free agent route to bolster our hitting.  We need at least 2 big bats coming in.  Going after 1 legit top line starter is necessary but once again deal from strength and that I don’t think is pitching right now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

48 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I’d be very very careful when it comes to giving up any young pitching prospect in any trade.  I would tend to horde pitching prospects.  I would emphasize going the free agent route to bolster our hitting.  We need at least 2 big bats coming in.  Going after 1 legit top line starter is necessary but once again deal from strength and that I don’t think is pitching right now.

Plus, a lot of our depth starters being suggested in trades will be coming off injuries -- no team will swap  assets for damaged goods this winter. 

Any deals involving guys like Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts and/or Perales -- if they happen -- will probably have to wait until Spring Training for the rehabbers to show they're recovered and ready.

To reiterate: any package for a top of the rotation starter will undoubtedly have to include Tolle and/or Early... 

... and that doesn't mean guys like Clarke or Witherspoon are worthless -- just worth less, for clubs seeking MLB-ready arms for '26.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

On 10/24/2025 at 11:05 AM, Cameron Tran said:

I dont get why everyone is writing off Casas already. I know he was really bad in his start last year, but so was Trev. He was starting to slug a bit before getting injured as well. People forget his last healthy season he was an .856 ops hitter. Still only 25. He should have a chance to win the 1b job this spring.

Terrible defensive player, really streaky hitter who kills them when he is cold and now he has a serious injury history. I'm fine allowing him to compete for the 1st base spot but they need more and he just can't be trusted.  

[harmony]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Casas, Kelly & Crawford for Peralta and Duran, Dobbins, Sandlin & Perales for K Marte.

Milwaukee is highly unlikely to trade its ace with a vastly under market value contract for two players who missed this season with injuries and a nearly 31-year-old reliever who posted a negative 0.2 bWAR this year. The trio combined for a negative 1.1 bWAR this season.

Teams are reluctant to trade quality for quantity in these 3- or 4-for-1 proposals.

The Brewers may lose Rhys Hoskins but should return first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who ths year posted a 141 OPS+ and 1.3 bWAR in 65 games with the Brew Crew.

Trivia: What team signed Freddy Peralta and Ketel Marte as teenagers out of the Dominican Republic?

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, cp176 said:

I’d be very very careful when it comes to giving up any young pitching prospect in any trade.  I would tend to horde pitching prospects.  I would emphasize going the free agent route to bolster our hitting.  We need at least 2 big bats coming in.  Going after 1 legit top line starter is necessary but once again deal from strength and that I don’t think is pitching right now.

I'm very hesitant on trading young pitching, too, but it is a strength we have and others want. We have great rotation depth, but in the form of 8-11 number 4/5 slot levels. Then, we have 3-4 ML ready very promising pitchers followed by groups of 3-4 promising prospects at 1-2, 2-3 and 3-4 years away.

I know the risk of trading the next Priester is very concerning, and that trade puts into doubt the ability of Brez and Co. to judge who are the right young pitchers to include in trades.

This was one of the few times I suggested trading young pitchers as part of packages for everyday players. My main plan would be to only trade young pitchers when we get an established, young & controlled pitcher in return. Sign FA everyday player.