A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Cubs are said to be interested in Zac Galleon, and don’t want a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in two years. The Red Sox would do that. The Cubs also want a OF. Want to add Duran, or Abreu? Once again a Big NO.

I wouldn't even trade Duran or Abreu for 4 years of Shaw. (maybe Duran, if they add another peice.)

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Why do you worry so much about that stuff? I just let it play out. Like I said before I don’t care what happens to Abreu, or Duran , or Masa for that matter. The opening day lineup will be what it is.

Why do you call it "worry?"

I look at our roster and try to figure out who is likely to play the most and at what positions. It's fun for me. I don't think it comes close to "worry."

I happen to think Duran is the worst defensive OF'er of the 4 we have, and he's a better hitter than Masa. Both he and Masa are LHBs, so I slot Duran at DH over Masa. No worry- just seeing what I think is the best layout.

The idea of Rafaela at 2B is intriguing, but I would not do that to a GG OF'er just so our $18M man can DH near FT. Again, it's not something I worry about. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Why do you worry so much about that stuff? 

Why do you worry about what I worry about?

🤪

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why do you call it "worry?"

I look at our roster and try to figure out who is likely to play the most and at what positions. It's fun for me. I don't think it comes close to "worry."

I happen to think Duran is the worst defensive OF'er of the 4 we have, and he's a better hitter than Masa. Both he and Masa are LHBs, so I slot Duran at DH over Masa. No worry- just seeing what I think is the best layout.

The idea of Rafaela at 2B is intriguing, but I would not do that to a GG OF'er just so our $18M man can DH near FT. Again, it's not something I worry about. 

Like I said you never know what Cora will do with the roster, and you don’t know what Brez will do to get to the opening day 26, so that’s why I just for the most part just let it play out.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why do you worry about what I worry about?

🤪

I certainly don’t, and I don’t think asking the question is worrying.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said you never know what Cora will do with the roster, and you don’t know what Brez will do to get to the opening day 26, so that’s why I just for the most part just let it play out.

Like I'm going to stop it from "playing out" by giving my opinions?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

My guess is Mayer gets a longer leash vs LHP.

I agree.  Assuming health, I expect Mayer to play 145-150 games, with only time off for the really tough lefties.  For all the talk about adding a 3B, I think the FO always penciled in Mayer as out l/t 3b.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree.  Assuming health, I expect Mayer to play 145-150 games, with only time off for the really tough lefties.  For all the talk about adding a 3B, I think the FO always penciled in Mayer as out l/t 3b.

Always penciled in? That’s a no. After the Bregman deal fell through? More likely.

[mvp 78]

“If we can trade a guy to potentially get a left-handed bat or something like that, we’ll consider it,” Brown told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “But I think right now we have a really good infield. We do have the depth. We have a long season, 162. We have some veterans that we’d like to give some breaks during the course of a season, and to have this depth is good.”

That’s the tone Brown has struck all winter. He said as early as the GM Meetings that they weren’t motivated to trade Christian Walker and had no interest in moving Isaac Paredes. He again spoke about those corner infielders today. “Right now, both of them are still part of our roster. We have plans for both of them to play. So right now, the plan is for both of them to be there,” Brown said.

[mvp 78]

Trading Hoerner or Shaw would immediately alter the Cubs’ plans for the coming season at least, and moving Shaw would have a longer-term impact since he only just made his MLB debut in 2025.  Hoerner is a free agent next winter, and with Bregman now locked into the hot corner, the thought has been that Shaw could take over from Hoerner as second base.  (The Cubs are also considering Shaw as an outfield option to expand his versatility.)

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The issue with Roman is his high GB rate (27th highest of guys > 200 AB's) matching Luis Rengifo. He has always hit the ball hard. He has always hit the ball into the ground. It really limits his ceiling. 

Even if the swing trajectory never adjusts enough to include consistent loft to become a 30+ HR guy, it would still be huge if he could learn to consistently rip it over the corner infielder's down the line a la Tony Gwynn.  Will have a higher batting average doing this than smashing the ball into the ground because even if you hit it into the ground at 105+ MPH (and he will) a non small portion of those are still getting fielded and he (Anthony) isnt Ichiro like outrunning fielded  ground balls.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We also can't project improvements from half the roster over '25. Relying on that has always been a little foolish. I know right now we tend to get a little more hopeful about the Sox and overestimate their chances, which causes people to crash out around Memorial Day when they aren't quite what we expected. 

Overall, I think they'll be about where they were last year. Great pitching, but a step backwards producing runs.

88-90 wins

I dont mind and never mind hoping for homerish expectations, like Romy is going to hit against righties like he does against lefties or Anthony is going to be a superstar this year or Abreu is going to be an .850+OPS bat even playing everyday or Mayer is going to take 2 giant leaps forward at the plate.

Hope away.  I hope so too.  But I get shy when we start assuming/counting on these things. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know if Duran is easy to project either. 

'23 828 OPS, 122 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

'24 834 OPS, 131 wRC+, 6.8 fWAR (additional games played and defensive turnaround)

'25 774 OPS, 111 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR (offense went the wrong direction)

Does the offense get better? Stay like '25? I think the 2.4 fWAR that FanGraphs projects is light, but it's hard to say where he's deriving it from. If the defense takes a step back and the offense stays the same, he has way less value. His sprint speed DECREASED last season. 😶

I agree that hes not the easiest guy to project and there is some variability , a lot of variance, in his year-to-year end of year stats last 3 years.  But he works out and he works out a ton, and hes 6'1

He has a better baseline than a 5'11 guy with no muscle.  Not as many MLB players work out as you may think and people underestimate how much body matters to prospect readiness.  Yes, you can in very many cases , look at a guy and tell if hes ready.

No boys.  Roman Anthony is not a boy, I can tell by looking at him.  Even in high-school, there are some 15 yr olds who are 6'3 and fully filled out and some 15 yr olds that are still children in appearance.  

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think if most everyone does about the same and they don't add anyone, the players to watch for improvement would be Mayer and Abreu (still only turning 27 this year). Marcelo hits the ball hard, but like Roman he's also had some GB% issues. He has had better FB rates than he showed in MLB last year, so maybe he can get back to that. Abreu cut his K% down a little last season. He's still barreling the ball, but his hard hit rate dropped. If he can get that hard hit rate back up, he should put up bigger numbers. 

Mayer is a great example of what I am talking about.  Show me a shirtless picture of Mayer from May last year and one taken right now, and Ill tell you if we can start getting excited for what he can do this year.

OF COURSE body isnt everything.  Pitch recognition, approach, swing trajectory - this stuff can get better and improve performance at the plate even without adding muscle....

But 90% of the game is half physical.

[drewski6]

The Red sox were concerned about Mayer work out habits. If he was hitting the ball hard last year hard and he comes back with added strength because he's embraced protein and lifting - thats exciting.  

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Health is big for Story,and Mayer, and if Abreu can hit LHP will be big for him.

You are correct, and sorry to beat a dead horse here but working out is huge for health.

Im sure we've all had a phsyical therapist tell us that adding muscle to our problem areas (in my case my neck) adds padding and in addition building up "stabilizer muscles" really help (thats what my physical therapist told me and my neck got better after working with her) and Ill stop here because I am 100% sure that someone here knows this stuff better than I do as Im not a physical therapist.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree that hes not the easiest guy to project and there is some variability , a lot of variance, in his year-to-year end of year stats last 3 years.  But he works out and he works out a ton, and hes 6'1

He has a better baseline than a 5'11 guy with no muscle.  Not as many MLB players work out as you may think and people underestimate how much body matters to prospect readiness.  Yes, you can in very many cases , look at a guy and tell if hes ready.

No boys.  Roman Anthony is not a boy, I can tell by looking at him.  Even in high-school, there are some 15 yr olds who are 6'3 and fully filled out and some 15 yr olds that are still children in appearance.  

Looking great in the uniform doesn't always provide on field results. That's why scouting has become less important than metrics over the past 25 years. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know if they should have Romy, DHam and IKF on the roster together. That's a lot of redundancy. What's the point of having Hamilton? At least Eaton can IF/OF.

Certainly not if we add Paredes because then against righties thats your bench (with wong). But I guess you do have an OF at DH, so its not like 0 OF coverage but it def feels like too much mediocre -> below second baseman, which honestly Wong kinda counts for that also.  And even Cedanne can play the position.

We may not have a second baseman, but we certainly have enough 2b depth lol

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Certainly not if we add Paredes because then against righties thats your bench (with wong). But I guess you do have an OF at DH, so its not like 0 OF coverage but it def feels like too much mediocre -> below second baseman, which honestly Wong kinda counts for that also.  And even Cedanne can play the position.

We may not have a second baseman, but we certainly have enough 2b depth lol

Wong has played 29 innings at 2b since '22. Hard to count him.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Duran should DH, right?

I lean DH Roman because Duran is durable and if we lose Roman to injury the season is probs over. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Duran is DH'ing, Masa (also GB heavy LHB) has no place on this team.

On opening day, sure. Cedannes hitting could regress to AAAA, someone could get hurt....

Im okay parking Masa in AAA if we can, Im not okay giving him away to whomever will take the most salary.

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You are correct, and sorry to beat a dead horse here but working out is huge for health.

Im sure we've all had a phsyical therapist tell us that adding muscle to our problem areas (in my case my neck) adds padding and in addition building up "stabilizer muscles" really help (thats what my physical therapist told me and my neck got better after working with her) and Ill stop here because I am 100% sure that someone here knows this stuff better than I do as Im not a physical therapist.

Not to diminish aerobics, flexibility, and balance, but no one should ignore strength.  The less muscle you have, the more pressure on tendons and ligaments.  It helps build bone density.  It helps with ordinary functions like picking up groceries, climbing stairs.  I've seen older people struggle to get out of deep-cushioned chairs.  Even walking on ice is easier if you have good musculature.  And God forbid you fall.  You want your muscles to take the brunt of the fall rather than just the bones, ligaments, and tendons.

[mvp 78]

This would be a Cubs deal then, not a Stros deal. Or worse? 

[JoeBrady]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looking great in the uniform doesn't always provide on field results. That's why scouting has become less important than metrics over the past 25 years. 

Just an interesting aside, when we drafted Benintendi, the scouting reports mentioned that he was already completely built out, and not to expect additional development from the maturity perspective.

[drewski6]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looking great in the uniform doesn't always provide on field results. That's why scouting has become less important than metrics over the past 25 years. 

Of course, dont find the most ripped dude you can and assume he can play ball.  However, when you start holding certain things constant like experience - the body does make a huge difference.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not to diminish aerobics, flexibility, and balance, but no one should ignore strength.  The less muscle you have, the more pressure on tendons and ligaments.  It helps build bone density.  It helps with ordinary functions like picking up groceries, climbing stairs.  I've seen older people struggle to get out of deep-cushioned chairs.  Even walking on ice is easier if you have good musculature.  And God forbid you fall.  You want your muscles to take the brunt of the fall rather than just the bones, ligaments, and tendons.

You just went up a notch in my book

Welcome to notch 1

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just an interesting aside, when we drafted Benintendi, the scouting reports mentioned that he was already completely built out, and not to expect additional development from the maturity perspective.

Why did he try to become Mr Workout in 2019 then? 

[mvp 78]

-37 OAA for his career. Benintendi needs to be a DH. 

[mvp 78]

45 starts at DH last season. The transition has begun. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

You just went up a notch in my book

Welcome to notch 1

LOL!  Thank you for your kind words.