A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox 4 GG Winners:

Wilyer Abreu RF 2024 & 2025 (Career .791 OPS w 27 HRs per 650)

Ceddane Rafaela CF 2025 (Career high .708 OPS in '25)

Brendan Rodgers 2B 2022 (He had a .746 OPS from '21 to '24 w 17 HRs per 650)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B 2020 (His best OPS seasons were .699 in '20 & .683 in '24)

Close calls:

Story in 2018 and 2020 at SS.

Would this be the best defensive alignment?

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Rodgers

3B Story/Mayer

SS I K-F

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

Narvaez was a top 3 finalist at C in his rookie 2025 season.

 

It would be, but then they'd have to platoon me and you at DH, because we'd have the best chance of getting on base in that batting order... (when we couldn't get out of the way of MLB fastballs).

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It would be, but then they'd have to platoon me and you at DH, because we'd have the best chance of getting on base in that batting order... (when we couldn't get out of the way of MLB fastballs).

The DH would be Duran v R and Romy v L, so the only guy benched for defense would Mayer or Story. This line-up is barely worse than the best offensive one we can construct.

[moonslav59]

Sandoval, DHam & Phillips for 1 year Hoerner

(Sandoval's contract helps us pay for Hoerner at $12M/1.)

[moonslav59]

Masa, Sandoval & DHam for Gleyber Torres, Javier Baez & $10M.

[moonslav59]

How about Bello & Early for

Shaw, Ben Brown (LHP) and Miguel Amaya (C) ?

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Bello & Early for

Shaw, Ben Brown (LHP) and Miguel Amaya (C) ?

Ben Brien is not left-handed but he does suck.

 

I’d rather have Bello and Early…

[moonslav59]

If Durbin can get near a 3.0 WAR, we could be fine, this season. We now have a much improved infield depth. Of course Bregman >>> Durbin, but let's see how their numbers compare year 2-3-4-5.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Durbin can get near a 3.0 WAR, we could be fine, this season. We now have a much improved infield depth. Of course Bregman >>> Durbin, but let's see how their numbers compare year 2-3-4-5.

 

Increase the bb rate. Pop a few more dingers over the Monster. If he keeps the same defense and running metrics, he'll do just fine. 

[moonslav59]

It's not as simple as just adding Durbin's projected 2.7 fWAR to the total projected WAR for the 2026 Sox, but if we do, our team fWAR would be 48.0.

Adjust for this...

Montasterio 0.3

DHam 0.5 & Harrison 0.2

We'd be near 47.6.

1. LAD 57.3

2, TOR 48.1

3. BOS 47.6

4. NYY 47.5

5. NYM 47.4

6. ATL 47.2

7. SEA 46.8

8. PHI 45.7

[moonslav59]

We went from 22 pitchers and 18 everyday players on the 40 to 20-20.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We went from 22 pitchers and 18 everyday players on the 40 to 20-20.

Not enough 2b/3b to too many...

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not enough 2b/3b to too many...

Funny, how that happened. Brez had so many calls out for 2B/3Bman, when the all said yes at the same time, maybe he lost count.

[moonslav59]

In such a short time we added:

Durbin, Montasterio, Seigler in today's trade.

I Kiner Falefa FA

B Rodgers MiFA

TC Cheng waivers

Lost: DHam

(Bregman earlier)

[moonslav59]

What's taking so long to add I K-F to the 40?

Maybe Cheng is DFA'd when that happens.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What's taking so long to add I K-F to the 40?

Maybe Cheng is DFA'd when that happens.

Waiting to add him once pitchers and catchers report and Houck is sent to the IL? 

Then the Sox can have even more IFers on the 40 man!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"Knowledge is power that I am faking."

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not enough 2b/3b to too many...

I doubt Cheng is long for the 40 man roster.  DFA and hope he clears waivers.

Eaton might find his roster spot in jeopardy now and I don’t think he has options…

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

"I'm desperately hoping there will be power that emerges from the group that we have."

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

I doubt Cheng is long for the 40 man roster.  DFA and hope he clears waivers.

Eaton might find his roster spot in jeopardy now and I don’t think he has options…

Nate Eaton has an option and Sox value him and he was an average OF glove last season. Maybe this transitions him permanently out of the IF? 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hitch said:

"I'm desperately hoping there will be power that emerges from the group that we have."

 

[moonslav59]

I forgot Houck can be added to the 60 Day IL, once ST'ing starts, so that's one slot for the 40.

I K-F still needs to be added.

[moonslav59]

Top expectations for our new arrivals:

.721 Caleb Durbin in 2015 as a rookie (101 OPS+) He his .858 in AAA. He might have 15-20 HR potential for 2026. He's a plus on defense at 3B.

.680-.699 Kiner Falefa (OPS+92ish) is probably the best we can expect. His power is close to none. He's a GG 3Bman.

.750-.798 Rodgers, who is not even on the 40, might have the best proven record on offense as he hit .798 in '21 (102 OPS+) He has 15 HR power. He's a GG 2bman.

.675-.750 Monasterio hit .755 in '25 w 135 PAs. He might have 10 HR power. He hit .734 in AAA, so he's not answer to our big bat need, but he can play all infield positions and has some plus numbers at some of them (2B & 3B).

??? Seigler is a LHB and a 3Bman (1B, too.) He hit .892 in AAA with 15-20 HR pop. I'm not sure how good/bad his defense is.

??? Cheng is another LHP who hit under .600 in AAA and under .660 in AA. Word is he's good on D and can play SS well.

Of course Durbin & I K-F look like the most significant adds of this group, but Rodgers could be the surprise guy.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

I expect Duran to DH more than Anthony. Maybe Abreu gets less days off, but gets his "rest" at DH a few games a year. (When he sits, if should be against the loughest lefties for LHBs.)

I don't see how Masa gets 80 starts at DH, unless there is an OF injury. Once Casas comes back, even that slot on the roster would be in extreme jeopardy.

Contreras could DH to get some rest (Romy/Casas at 1B?) I doubt he catches, unless there is a daily emergency of some catcher needs to be PH for, late in a game.

Romy could DH vs LHPs, but he can be used to platoon with or give days off to Mayer, I K-F or even Durbin (as mayer slides to 3B.)

I still think KC's best position might be DH. He could win a GG there! LMAO. He's the long shot, at this point.

Cora is going to love the roster flex, especially if Masa is not on the 26.

 

[mvp 78]

The situation is further muddied by the fact that infielder Romy Gonzalez is behind schedule due to a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the offseason (links via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and the Globe’s Tim Healey). Gonzalez suffered the injury in Boston’s 160th game of the season. He rested it and rehabbed it throughout the winter and believed the issue to be behind him but instead aggravated it when starting a hitting program last month. He’s since received a platelet-rich plasma injection and is aiming to be ready for Opening Day, but that’ll depend on how his shoulder progresses (or does not progress) during the Grapefruit League schedule.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The situation is further muddied by the fact that infielder Romy Gonzalez is behind schedule due to a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the offseason (links via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and the Globe’s Tim Healey). Gonzalez suffered the injury in Boston’s 160th game of the season. He rested it and rehabbed it throughout the winter and believed the issue to be behind him but instead aggravated it when starting a hitting program last month. He’s since received a platelet-rich plasma injection and is aiming to be ready for Opening Day, but that’ll depend on how his shoulder progresses (or does not progress) during the Grapefruit League schedule.

And so it begins...

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The situation is further muddied by the fact that infielder Romy Gonzalez is behind schedule due to a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the offseason (links via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and the Globe’s Tim Healey). Gonzalez suffered the injury in Boston’s 160th game of the season. He rested it and rehabbed it throughout the winter and believed the issue to be behind him but instead aggravated it when starting a hitting program last month. He’s since received a platelet-rich plasma injection and is aiming to be ready for Opening Day, but that’ll depend on how his shoulder progresses (or does not progress) during the Grapefruit League schedule.

The bad injury Ju ju.🤭