A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

It will all depend on how well Abreu hits LHP.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

The bad injury Ju ju.🤭

Is there a good injury Ju Ju?

😏

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

It will all depend on how well Abreu hits LHP.

He may only have to outhit Duran vs LHPs to stay playing FT.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is there a good injury Ju Ju?

😏

Yes, when it affects pinstripes…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He may only have to outhit Duran vs LHPs to stay playing FT.

Maybe, but Duran has pretty much been FT the past few years anyway despite what he’s done vs LHP.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Maybe, but Duran has pretty much been FT the past few years anyway despite what he’s done vs LHP.

Indeed, despite Abreu out hitting and defending him in 2025. I think Cora would prefer not platooning Duran, but sitting him one out of every 3 games vs LH's SP'ers might only be about 15-20 starts. He'd probably still PH and be brought into most games he starts on the bench. (Same with Abreu, if he doesn't start vs a lefty.)

Not having Refsnyder changes the OF dynamic. I know we hear "Romy can platoon in the OF," but I think he's better utilized as a 2B/dH platoon while playing some 1B vs selected RHPs.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, when it affects pinstripes…

Good answer.

[moonslav59]

Could this be the depth chart by position?

C: Narvaez, Wong> Contreras (emergency only), Seigler, Gasper (AAA Thaiss)

1B: Contreras, Romy, Casas > Monasterio (Hickey)

2B: Mayer, Romy, Durbin/I K-F, Cheng, Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler (Romero)

3B: Durbin, Mayer, I K-F> Monasterio, Seigler, Sogard, Eaton, Romy

SS: Story, I K-F> ???

LF: Anthony, Duran> KC, Masa, Romy

CF: Rafaela, Anthony/Duran> (B Ward)

RF: Abreu, Anthony > (Eaton)

DH: Duran/Masa/Casas LHBs & Romy/KC RHBs

[moonslav59]

Years of control:

1: Gray (mutual option) & Sandoval

2: Chapman (team option) & Oviedo, Romy, Houck, Masa

3: Contreras, Story & Whitlock (team options) Duran, Crawford, Casas Wong, Kelly

All the rest are 4+ seasons

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Years of control:

1: Gray (mutual option) & Sandoval

2: Chapman (team option) & Oviedo, Romy, Houck, Masa

3: Contreras, Story & Whitlock (team options) Duran, Crawford, Casas Wong, Kelly

All the rest are 4+ seasons

Now, the longer term deals and control years:

8 years + option Anthony

7 years + 2 option years Campbell

6 years Crochet & Rafaela

5 years Suarez

4 years + option Bello

Pre-arb (4+ years) : 19 players on the 40!!!

Tolle, Anthony, Abreu, Narvaez, Durbin, Slaten, Wiessert, Sogard, Kelly, Moran, Watson, Samaniego, Monasterio, Seigler, Bennett, Eaton, Uberstine, Gasper, Cheng

25 players with 4+ years of control!

[Larry Cook]

Looks like romy has a bad shoulder and may need DL time. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Looks like romy has a bad shoulder and may need DL time. 

Let's hope not. It's nice we have 40 infielders on our 40! Just in case!

[moonslav59]

How about revisiting the KMarte talks:

Mayer, Bello & Sandoval for KMarte

(The AAV is almost even.)

Mayer & Early is also accepted on BTV, but the added AAV would put the Sox over line 3.

[moonslav59]

How about Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval & Cespedes for K Marte?

[Duran Is The Man]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval & Cespedes for K Marte?

i think i'd do this. and only because i had little to no confidence in mayer.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about revisiting the KMarte talks:

Mayer, Bello & Sandoval for KMarte

(The AAV is almost even.)

Mayer & Early is also accepted on BTV, but the added AAV would put the Sox over line 3.

I don't see it.  If the starting (and regular) infield isn't Contreras, Story, Mayer & Durbin, I'd be surprised.

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't see it.  If the starting (and regular) infield isn't Contreras, Story, Mayer & Durbin, I'd be surprised.

I'd be shocked, but I'd still do it.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be shocked, but I'd still do it.

not worried about his age? after all, Marte is 32 and a full three years older than Duran, who by some accounts is "getting old".

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not worried about his age? after all, Marte is 32 and a full three years older than Duran, who by some accounts is "getting old".

Of course I'm worried, but the guy is a top 10 bat and should have 2-3 good years left, His AAV is low due to defferements.

 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval & Cespedes for K Marte?

Arizona asked for Mayer and early and bres-slow said no thanks! 
best no trade of the off season 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Arizona asked for Mayer and early and bres-slow said no thanks! 
best no trade of the off season 

I hope you are right.

Maybe I'm tainted by all Mayer's injuries and struggles vs LHPs through the minors. Maybe not.

KMarte is a great hitter and decent defensive 2Bman. He's getting older, yes. He costs a lot, yes. The return package will be great, yes. 

I'd like our 3 year window with him. I'd like our 4-5 year window maybe more with Mayer & Early. The other deal, I'd do in a heartbeat.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Arizona asked for Mayer and early and bres-slow said no thanks! 
best no trade of the off season 

I think they asked for 2 from Mayer, Tolle & Early.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about revisiting the KMarte talks:

Mayer, Bello & Sandoval for KMarte

(The AAV is almost even.)

Mayer & Early is also accepted on BTV, but the added AAV would put the Sox over line 3.

No more trading of starting pitching. Injuries will come and we need the depth. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

No more trading of starting pitching. Injuries will come and we need the depth. 

Good point, and we have the infield depth covered three times over.

[moonslav59]

Word is that DD is looking to offload Castellanos and his $20M/1 deal remaining. He's a RHB in serious decline, whereas Masa may still have a good year left in him.

Castellanos last 3 years OPS+: 111>108>87. He turns 34 in a few weeks. (29 HRs>22>17)

I doubt DD trades $20M/1 for $18M/2 (Masa,) but would you?

If DD insiested on $9M or $18M paid in 2027, would that change your mind?

[Hitch]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is that DD is looking to offload Castellanos and his $20M/1 deal remaining. He's a RHB in serious decline, whereas Masa may still have a good year left in him.

Castellanos last 3 years OPS+: 111>108>87. He turns 34 in a few weeks. (29 HRs>22>17)

I doubt DD trades $20M/1 for $18M/2 (Masa,) but would you?

If DD insiested on $9M or $18M paid in 2027, would that change your mind?

For what end? We don't need another infielder. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

For what end? We don't need another infielder. 

RH'd DH and to save money.

He also plays corner OF and there was talk we were seeking a RHB OF'er.

[Hitch]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

RH'd DH and to save money.

He also plays corner OF and there was talk we were seeking a RHB OF'er.

We don't need a DH. If we're getting rid of Yoshida, I don't want any bad contracts coming back that'll clog up the roster. 

[moonslav59]

With the addition of Durbin, fangraphs now has the Sox projected as 7th best in 2026 fWAR:

57.3 LAD

48.1 TOR

47.5 NYY

47.4 NYM

47.2 ATL

46.8 SEA

46.2 BOS

46.1 PHI

45.4 BAL

44.8 DET

By position:

1st SP (Oviedo with the 5th most IP, then Sandoval & Crawford)

2nd LF (Anthony then Duran)

5th RP

7th RF (Abreu w some Anthony)

7th CF (Ceddanne)

12th 1B (Willson)

15th DH (Mostly Duran, then Masa, Anthony, Willson & Casas)

17th 2B (Mostly Durbin & Romy)

24th 3B (Mostly mayer but Durbin not far away)

25th SS (but don't bring up asking Cora to make a change)

26th Catcher (Narvaez at 1.9 Tied for 17th most)

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is that DD is looking to offload Castellanos and his $20M/1 deal remaining. He's a RHB in serious decline, whereas Masa may still have a good year left in him.

Castellanos last 3 years OPS+: 111>108>87. He turns 34 in a few weeks. (29 HRs>22>17)

I doubt DD trades $20M/1 for $18M/2 (Masa,) but would you?

If DD insiested on $9M or $18M paid in 2027, would that change your mind?

Castellanos was dreadful last season. I wouldn't even want him taking platoon AB's away from Casas vs LHP.