A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

For all the great things hang’em Chaim did as far as minor league hitting drafting and development and hitting talent acquisition! It still boggles my mind that he did not place any value on defense or quality pitching. 
Instead he chose to claim every reclamation project that hit the waiver wire 

He had some major blind spots, for sure. That being said, he left a decent foundation for Brez, including some decent pitchers- some of whom were DD guys, but still. He did add Whitlock, Tolle, Valera and some decent everyday players.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It still boggles my mind that he did not place any value on defense or quality pitching. 

He picked Mayer #1 in '21, Romero #1 in '22, and Teel #1 in '23, so I don't think he ignored defense,  And two biggest problems, Devers and Casas, were already here.

[moonslav59]

While fWAR projections are notoriously low, even for players moving towards peak prime, there is some reason for optimism with the Sox over their winter changes, and I'll include losing Devers, too.

There is no sugar-coating the loss of Devers and Bregman, and to a lesser extent Gio, Refsnyder, Wilson, Matz, Dobbins and a few others. Here is a breakdown of changes made, so far:

2025 FWAR used and projected fWAR

Lost> Gained

3.5 Bregman> added nothing from outside the system

3.3 Devers (2 team total)> added nothing

1.0 Refsnyder> added nothing

0.3 N Lowe (BOS -0.7 fWAR at 1B)> 2.8 Contreras (projected 1.9)

_________________________

2.0 Giolito> 4.0 Suarez (3.3 projected)

1,0 Dobbins > 3.6 Sonny Gray (3.9 projected)

-1.4 (-0.7 Buehler, -0.3 Houck, -0.3 Fitts, -0.1 DMay)> Oviedo (1.2 projected)

1.7 (1.0 Wilson, 0.6 Bernardino, 0.2 Wink, -0.1 Alcala)> Nothing added to the pen, so far. (Probably see Harrison, Crawford and other SP'ers moved to the pen.)

This is an oversimplified way of looking at it, but it does highlight where we have improved and where we need improvement.

Everyday players: Contreras might give us a +2 or 3 fWAR over 2025's 1B, but losing Devers, Bregman and Refsnyder has to be viewed as losing 4-6 fWAR. Maybe the overall loss at everyday positions is like 4 fWARish.

Pitchers: It looks like +1.5 to 2 for Suarez over Gio, +2.5 to 3 for Gray over Dobbins and +1 to 1.5 for Oviedo over a mix. (I'm not even counting pluses from Sandoval, Crawford and Harrison here, but see the pen.) The rotation looks about +5 or 6 and should balance the loss on offense and then some.

The pen lost 1.7,  but maybe SP'ers in the pen can make that up.

Overall, I see a +1-2 fWAR over 2025, with no more moves made. The gain is not what I hoped for, and probably most of us feel the same way or worse about the winter's overall moves.

Hopefully we add a 2+ fWAR guy at 3B or 2B, and the gain looks much better.

[moonslav59]

I really like Tolle, but would you give him up for a quality young 2Bman from MN- Luke Keaschall?

I'd offer Tolle, Sandlin and Wong for Keaschall & one year of a good hitting catcher, Jeffers.

[moonslav59]

Do you trade Sandlin, DHam and Soto for SS Ezequiel Tovar?

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

He picked Mayer #1 in '21, Romero #1 in '22, and Teel #1 in '23, so I don't think he ignored defense,  And two biggest problems, Devers and Casas, were already here.

Drafting is a solution, four years down the road. He did nothing to address the present dumpster fire infield defense situation! 
we led the American League in errors how many years in a row?  
how many extra pitches did our pitchers throw because of infield ineptitude ?? 

[moonslav59]

While fangraph's projections are often wrong, here is how they score our pitchers by fWAR per IP:

.029 Crochet

.022 Gray

.019 Suarez

.012 Bello & Early

.011 Oviedo& Sandoval

.010 Tolle

.007 Crawford

_____________

.024 Chapman

0.16 Whitlock

.007 Slaten

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Drafting is a solution, four years down the road. He did nothing to address the present dumpster fire infield defense situation! 
we led the American League in errors how many years in a row?  
how many extra pitches did our pitchers throw because of infield ineptitude ?? 

4 years:

Draft:

2021: Drafted Mayer 1st & McDonogh 3rd

2022: Drafted Romero 1st, C Coffey 2nd & Meidroth 4th.

2023: Zaneteool 2nd & Anderson 3rd, K Campbell Comp pick

IFA:

2026: D Brito (2nd highest bonus)

2025: D Soto (Highest bonus) Ramos (4th highest)

2024: Carrasquel (2nd) Fermin (5th)

2023: Cespedes (1st) Arias (2nd) Ruis (3rd)

 

[notin]

On 1/24/2026 at 9:55 PM, Larry Cook said:

For all the great things hang’em Chaim did as far as minor league hitting drafting and development and hitting talent acquisition! It still boggles my mind that he did not place any value on defense or quality pitching. 
Instead he chose to claim every reclamation project that hit the waiver wire 

Bloom was trying to build the minor leagues into a sustainable pipeline while starting with the 30th ranked system.  The easiest abd fastest way to build up the minors is to draft lower risk position players….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Bloom was trying to build the minor leagues into a sustainable pipeline while starting with the 30th ranked system.  The easiest abd fastest way to build up the minors is to draft lower risk position players….

That, and trade your Hall of Famer for a haul of prospects from LA.

Half joking, but I admit I insisted Verdugo be part of that deal -- while some here said there was no way.

I wasn't happy with Wong, though, since the Dodgers held back at least two better young catchers.

But not landing a starting pitcher was the worst part of that trade... especially after Bloom -- who had zero good pitchers in the pipeline -- rejected the one arm LA included from another system, and took a shortstop named Jeter. There was no way he was fitting in.

Of course, then there was the argument of What do you expect for one year of Betts? -- when it was really 13 years, which had to be Friedman's plan all along. For that, I expected Josiah Gray and Kiebert Ruiz, who were later traded for another Hall of Famer.

 

[mvp 78]

On 1/25/2026 at 1:02 AM, moonslav59 said:

He had some major blind spots, for sure. That being said, he left a decent foundation for Brez, including some decent pitchers- some of whom were DD guys, but still. He did add Whitlock, Tolle, Valera and some decent everyday players.

He had no idea who Juan Valera was when they signed him. He just trusted the scouts and had JH write a check. Tolle was drafted by Breslow.

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

He picked Mayer #1 in '21, Romero #1 in '22, and Teel #1 in '23, so I don't think he ignored defense,  And two biggest problems, Devers and Casas, were already here.

Just move Devers or Casas to DH instead of signing Masa? 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Half joking, but I admit I insisted Verdugo be part of that deal

I thought that was a great get.  A top 30-40 prospect.  He had a 2.9 bWAR with LA the previous season.  He stepped in with a 2.2 in 201 ABs with us.  Played a good LF.  He looked like a 5-tool with 4 years left.  After his first year, I'd have extended him for sure.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Just move Devers or Casas to DH instead of signing Masa? 

You don't usually do that without a better sub or an older guy.  Casas was 23 and Devers 26.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Just move Devers or Casas to DH instead of signing Masa? 

Masa wasn’t signed to be a DH. He was signed to be an OF, because the Red Sox were lacking for OF at the time.🤔

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You don't usually do that without a better sub or an older guy.  Casas was 23 and Devers 26.

Exactly. I don’t believe there was any plan by the Red Sox brain trust to move either one off their positions.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You don't usually do that without a better sub or an older guy.  Casas was 23 and Devers 26.

Move Devers to 1b and Casas to DH. Seems like a smart move. 

Sign Swanson after '22 (many advocated on here) and keep Story at 2b. Very strong up the middle and can help Devers deficiencies at 3b. Sign Santana 2/12 to play 1b. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Masa wasn’t signed to be a DH. He was signed to be an OF, because the Red Sox were lacking for OF at the time.🤔

Duran, Verdugo and they signed Duvall later on for very cheap. Masa played OF after Duvall got hurt. Had Rafaela and Abreu in the pipeline so there was no reason to sign a guy for years and years...

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran, Verdugo and they signed Duvall later on for very cheap. Masa played OF after Duvall got hurt. Had Rafaela and Abreu in the pipeline so there was no reason to sign a guy for years and years...

Didn’t Duran start the year at WOO, and was only called up at the time, because Duvall got hurt? Duran was not on the opening day roster.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Move Devers to 1b and Casas to DH. Seems like a smart move. 

Sign Swanson after '22 (many advocated on here) and keep Story at 2b. Very strong up the middle and can help Devers deficiencies at 3b. Sign Santana 2/12 to play 1b. 

May have sounded good, but STORY was signed to take over for Bogey at SS bad arm, and all.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That, and trade your Hall of Famer for a haul of prospects from LA.

Half joking, but I admit I insisted Verdugo be part of that deal -- while some here said there was no way.

I wasn't happy with Wong, though, since the Dodgers held back at least two better young catchers.

But not landing a starting pitcher was the worst part of that trade... especially after Bloom -- who had zero good pitchers in the pipeline -- rejected the one arm LA included from another system, and took a shortstop named Jeter. There was no way he was fitting in.

Of course, then there was the argument of What do you expect for one year of Betts? -- when it was really 13 years, which had to be Friedman's plan all along. For that, I expected Josiah Gray and Kiebert Ruiz, who were later traded for another Hall of Famer.

 

The big issue with the Mookie trade was the limited interest, which was probably influenced by the inclusion of Price.  The Sox had two offers, and the San Diego one was even weaker (plus they wanted Boston to take back Wil Myers, which made zero sense since he was owed nearly as much as Price).

No one chanted “keep Brusdar Graterol” louder than I did.  But he really didn’t turn out to be any more useful than Wong plus Downs, did he?

I heard stories Bloom originally wanted Will Smith, but no idea.

Whether or not Friedman planned to extend Betts is immaterial. If the Sox didn’t trade him, he was only under contract for one season.  If the Sox didn’t trade Betts, they weren’t going to have him for 13 years.  More likely he leaves after one and then signs with LA for 12 years anyway…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

 More likely he leaves after one and then signs with LA for 12 years anyway…

... especially after Mookie got there, felt the sunny warmth of Southern California -- compared to the raw New England nights that taunt athletic bodies -- and almost immediately received the contract offer he was hoping to sign in Boston.

Sorry, everybody, this post is boring to some, but easier to type staring out the window at two feet of snow that I know I have to shovel.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Just move Devers or Casas to DH instead of signing Masa? 

And sign Matt Chapman for 3b!  Only worth 9.1 fWAR since signing that deal.

But Yoshida played LF, Duvall in CF, Verdugo in RF until Duvall hurt is wrist.  And Justin Turner was the Sox DH, where he did have a pretty good year at like age 60, I think…

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Didn’t Duran start the year at WOO, and was only called up at the time, because Duvall got hurt? Duran was not on the opening day roster.

He had been called up in '21 and '22. He could have been on the Opening Day roster if they wanted. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

The big issue with the Mookie trade was the limited interest, which was probably influenced by the inclusion of Price.  The Sox had two offers, and the San Diego one was even weaker (plus they wanted Boston to take back Wil Myers, which made zero sense since he was owed nearly as much as Price).

No one chanted “keep Brusdar Graterol” louder than I did.  But he really didn’t turn out to be any more useful than Wong plus Downs, did he?

I heard stories Bloom originally wanted Will Smith, but no idea.

Whether or not Friedman planned to extend Betts is immaterial. If the Sox didn’t trade him, he was only under contract for one season.  If the Sox didn’t trade Betts, they weren’t going to have him for 13 years.  More likely he leaves after one and then signs with LA for 12 years anyway…

There was an original deal in place with DD and LAD to move Betts that included Smith during '19. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... especially after Mookie got there, felt the sunny warmth of Southern California -- compared to the raw New England nights that taunt athletic bodies -- and almost immediately received the contract offer he was hoping to sign in Boston.

Sorry, everybody, this post is boring to some, but easier to type staring out the window at two feet of snow that I know I have to shovel.

I won't tell you what the temp is here today. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

And sign Matt Chapman for 3b!  Only worth 9.1 fWAR since signing that deal.

Good defense. Doesn't chase. Decent pull rate. Excellent hard hit/exit velo. 

The goal of always staying under the cap may not be a great idea. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I won't tell you what the temp is here today. 

Is it higher than the 1 degree Fahrenheit that it is here?

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had been called up in '21 and '22. He could have been on the Opening Day roster if they wanted. 

Yes he could have been on the opening day roster, but he wasn’t, so I guess they didn’t want to, and signed Duvall, and Masa, which might not have happened if the Red Sox thought Duran was ready. The Red Sox knew what Masa’s shortcomings were, and spent $105M on him anyway.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I won't tell you what the temp is here today. 

Did you get 12+ inches of the white stuff?