A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, Old Red said:

You guys throw out all these suggestions that Bloom, and Cora obviously didn’t do, so I wonder why they didn’t see it that way. They were either bad ideas, or especially Cora must be really incompetent.

Maybe Casas really wasn't the DH of the future? After his ARB years were up, he was just going to be elsewhere? The idea was probably to let him play 1B through season 6 and then let him go. His bat is fine, but doesn't have Devers's ceiling. 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Strawmen, misrepresentations and diversions, OH MY!

No diversion at all. You seem to think an opinion, or suggestions make it less wrong than predictions , and that’s why you always try to differentiate. They are not. Especially in your case, because they don’t happen either way.👋

[mvp 78]

I just don't think CBOs look at this roster and think, wow these are the guys I'm going to have for the next 5 years. I think they know that everyone could be dealt and they are more focused on 2-3 years than what the team looks like well into the future. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe Casas really wasn't the DH of the future? After his ARB years were up, he was just going to be elsewhere? The idea was probably to let him play 1B through season 6 and then let him go. His bat is fine, but doesn't have Devers's ceiling. 

I don’t really think they really know what Casas is at this point, because of all the time he’s missed, because of injuries. I bet they are glad he didn’t take that extension though.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I just don't think CBOs look at this roster and think, wow these are the guys I'm going to have for the next 5 years. I think they know that everyone could be dealt and they are more focused on 2-3 years than what the team looks like well into the future. 

Boston’s CBO’s should be looking at the here, and now more than anything else, because they don’t stick around to long anyway.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just don't think CBOs look at this roster and think, wow these are the guys I'm going to have for the next 5 years. I think they know that everyone could be dealt and they are more focused on 2-3 years than what the team looks like well into the future. 

I really dont think they earmark and pencil in as much as fans do in general.  Even prospects. I think "x of the future" is more a fan thing. Hes our second baseman of the future! 

Sure they have guys who they expect to contribute down the line and even some they are excited about.  But I think they mostly consider everyone an option. When they are dealing a blocked prospect or like from a depth area (like if we had 3 good catching prospects to deal 1) - I think they are usually more focused on what they are getting vs we need to trade one of these outfielders/catchers.

I dont think redundancy really drives the moves.

[Larry Cook]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

In terms of projected fWAR, here is the scorecard:

Add:

3.9 S Gray

3.3 R Suarez

1.9 Contreras

1.2 Oviedo

(returning from injury: 1.5 Crawford + Sandoval)

+11.8 Total (+10.3 added to team)

_________________________

2025 fWAR lost (2026 projected)

3.5 Bregman (3.8)

2.0 Giolito (1.2)

1.0 Wilson (0.5)

1.0 Dobbins (0.6)

1.0 Refsnyder (0.5)

0.7 Newcomb

0.6 Bernardino (0.1)

0.4 Lowe

0.2 Wink

0.1 Burdi

-0.9 Toro+Sabol

-2.1 several pitchers including Buehler + Matz (+1.7 Matz projected)

+7.5 Total

 

 

Is houck included in the several pitchers line? I think he should be included since he is not back in 2026! 

[drewski6]

This last deadlne, someone (maybe Merloni) said that most baseball people tend to focus on what they received vs what they gave.

Im like this personally.  A good example for me was the Robert Williams (and more) trade for Jrue.  A lot of my friends were like "nooooo. not my rwill. I wubbbb him".  BUt I was so jazzed for Jrue.

I think generally, they dont start with circling guys they can deal but rather start by identifying guys they want.  But there are exceptions. A frequent exception would prob be a deadline seller making calls to get value for thier upcoming free agents. That would be a frequent and notable exception.

But a team like us in the offseason.  I doubt they were ever really looking to deal an OF.  I think they would have and still would if a team aggressively went after one and they liked the deal.  But I dont think that having 4 OFers we need to trade one was a priority.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Boston’s CBO’s should be looking at the here, and now more than anything else, because they don’t stick around to long anyway.

Exactly.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I really dont think they earmark and pencil in as much as fans do in general.  Even prospects. I think "x of the future" is more a fan thing. Hes our second baseman of the future! 

Sure they have guys who they expect to contribute down the line and even some they are excited about.  But I think they mostly consider everyone an option. When they are dealing a blocked prospect or like from a depth area (like if we had 3 good catching prospects to deal 1) - I think they are usually more focused on what they are getting vs we need to trade one of these outfielders/catchers.

I dont think redundancy really drives the moves.

I really doubt Breslow is looking at the depth chart and thinking "Arias will really help us in 2028" or "we can't trade Juan Valera because he's going to be in our rotation someday." 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He doesn't fit, because Cora isn't committed to DHing him 130 Games a year. In '24 when he was hitting well, Cora sat him frequently. It didn't make sense. 

None of us know the extent of his injury or how long it affected his swing before he had surgery. But you can be sure the scouts didn't love him because they craved a batter who could consistently roll over to the second baseman.

Now he's healed and we'll see if Yoshida hits it harder this Spring. As to making contact vs. whiffing, you'll never hear anyone who has ever played baseball say they regret barreling a pitch and would rather swing and miss -- even if it results in a double play.

Atom balls are an unfortunate part of the game, but serious batters know all they can do is trust the process.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

None of us know the extent of his injury or how long it affected his swing before he had surgery. But you can be sure the scouts didn't love him because they craved a batter who could consistently roll over to the second baseman.

Now he's healed and we'll see if Yoshida hits it harder this Spring. As to making contact vs. whiffing, you'll never hear anyone who has ever played baseball say they regret barreling a pitch and would rather swing and miss -- even if it results in a double play.

Atom balls are an unfortunate part of the game, but serious batters know all they can do is trust the process.

Yoshida was our cleanup hitter in last years playoffs, and while I think we were bit by the injury bug in an above-average way, I dont think it was crazy.

People love to talk about how we used 9 pitchers last year, and therefore we need 9 starters (we have 12), but people dont consider as much the injuries to the other side.  Yoshida turned from near after-thought mid-season to clean up hitter in the playoffs

It can happen again. Two of Story, Duran, Abreu, Contreras get hurt, and we're prob looking for offense wherever we can find it.

Im not interested in moving Yoshida just to svae a couple mil or to make it cleaner regarding who will play where (e.g. opening up DH spot for Duran).  Im more interested in parking him on the bench (but he has to learn first base), giving him some at-bats when hes not in the everyday lineup to keep him fresh, and Im sure injuries will eventually give him a role.

Get rid of him , and you can wind up with David Hamilton as your DH.

Im not implying that I think hes a must keep or going to have a massive bounceback. Im more so thinking that we dont have a ton of hitting as is, and if we lose a couple bats to injury, I can very much see Yoshida becoming a significant part of our offense.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Try looking at it from Raffy’s point of view  for once, and you might come up with a different take. It didn’t matter who said it, but it was the Boston Red Sox who said. 

Dear Mr. Strawman,

I do look at it from his POV, too. I have never said it was even more than 50% his fault. It might not even be 33% his fault, and since we don't know all the facts, I'll just say several people were to blame, including Devers.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

No diversion at all. You seem to think an opinion, or suggestions make it less wrong than predictions , and that’s why you always try to differentiate. They are not. Especially in your case, because they don’t happen either way.👋

No, not at all.

You keep saying "It didn't happen" as evidence that my suggestion was wrong.

And yes, suggestions can be wrong, too, and many of mine have been wrong.

(See how easy it is to admit being wrong?)

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is houck included in the several pitchers line? I think he should be included since he is not back in 2026! 

Then, other teams should have deductions, too.

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

None of us know the extent of his injury or how long it affected his swing before he had surgery. But you can be sure the scouts didn't love him because they craved a batter who could consistently roll over to the second baseman.

Now he's healed and we'll see if Yoshida hits it harder this Spring. As to making contact vs. whiffing, you'll never hear anyone who has ever played baseball say they regret barreling a pitch and would rather swing and miss -- even if it results in a double play.

Atom balls are an unfortunate part of the game, but serious batters know all they can do is trust the process.

Also, are you sure its an "Atom" ball?

I always thought they were "Atem" balls ,as in you hit it hard but unfortunately right at 'em (or at them)

Kind of like "Up and atem" (which for the longest time I thought was up and adam and i was like biblical adam?)

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yoshida was our cleanup hitter in last years playoffs, and while I think we were bit by the injury bug in an above-average way, I dont think it was crazy.

People love to talk about how we used 9 pitchers last year, and therefore we need 9 starters (we have 12), but people dont consider as much the injuries to the other side.  Yoshida turned from near after-thought mid-season to clean up hitter in the playoffs

It can happen again. Two of Story, Duran, Abreu, Contreras get hurt, and we're prob looking for offense wherever we can find it.

Im not interested in moving Yoshida just to svae a couple mil or to make it cleaner regarding who will play where (e.g. opening up DH spot for Duran).  Im more interested in parking him on the bench (but he has to learn first base), giving him some at-bats when hes not in the everyday lineup to keep him fresh, and Im sure injuries will eventually give him a role.

Get rid of him , and you can wind up with David Hamilton as your DH.

Im not implying that I think hes a must keep or going to have a massive bounceback. Im more so thinking that we dont have a ton of hitting as is, and if we lose a couple bats to injury, I can very much see Yoshida becoming a significant part of our offense.

DH depth chart before we trade an OF'er:

1. Duran w other OF'ers on rest days

2. Masa

3. Casas (may start season on IL- maybe even 60 day.)

4. Campbell

5. Romy

....

10. DHam

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then, other teams should have deductions, too.

If you pulled the projections off a reputable site, Im sure they didnt include Houck.  The pitching is excellent by any reasonable metric, and it was even before Ranger, Maybe best rotation in baseball.  Or top 4 at least, I would think.

Not that I hate the Ranger move, I like the guy. Didnt see it coming, but I like the person.  

His name isnt even pronounced Ranger, but hes so easy going, he'll let you Americanize it (its Ranh-yer)

He'll even embrace you calling him The Red Power Ranger (a nickname he likes)

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DH depth chart before we trade an OF'er:

1. Duran w other OF'ers on rest days

2. Masa

3. Casas (may start season on IL- maybe even 60 day.)

4. Campbell

5. Romy

....

10. DHam

Sure - I dont actually think DHam will DH but my point is that there may come a time and probably will where we will be looking for offense, and Masa may be the provider of it at that point.

We got like 7 hits last postseason, and I think he had like 2 of em.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

You need leaders to lead by example in the weight room, I agree though. 

We had some.  Duran and O'Neill lived in the weight room, as did Eovaldi.  But I often wonder if teams have off-season workout programs designed for each player.  It probably would require a whole lot of science to determine where your weak muscles, ligaments, and cartilage are, especially relative to your position.  And then have a roving OT/PT visit each player for 3-4 days at a time to supervise their workouts.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We had some.  Duran and O'Neill lived in the weight room, as did Eovaldi.  But I often wonder if teams have off-season workout programs designed for each player.  It probably would require a whole lot of science to determine where your weak muscles, ligaments, and cartilage are, especially relative to your position.  And then have a roving OT/PT visit each player for 3-4 days at a time to supervise their workouts.

When we moved on from TON, me and my buddy agreed that we'd miss the weight room leaders, but were glad to still have Duran.

I was adamant against trading Duran at the deadline last year, a big part was this reason (of the three weight room leaders you mentioned, hes the only one still here)

I was more open to moving him after he dropped that ball , but it was kind of short lived and Im back to being glad he is still here.

I would assume offseason programs are developed for each player, with resources available for the player, but I doubt they are dropping in to monitor. Thats sounds a little too big brother.  I think some guys report early for this reason (work closely with strength and conditioning professionals and the advanced machines I hope the team has).  I think if the team really wanted to ensure program compliance, they would more pressure the player to report early rather than visiting the player at wherever they may be (cough , marcelo mayer, cough)

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

further complications came when the guy who made the promise to Devers was replaced

To me, those promises are meaningless.  I'm not unsympathetic to Devers not wanting to play 1st, but even in a beer league, you still have to earn your position.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Try looking at it from Raffy’s point of view  for once, and you might come up with a different take. It didn’t matter who said it, but it was the Boston Red Sox who said. 

What mattered was Devers failed to live up to his part.  He spent the last 3 years as the worst - not among the worst, the worst - defensive third basemen in MLB.  Every player whose metrics were in his neighborhood was shifted off to another position.

It’s not Bloom’s or Breslow’s job to make Devers happy; they gave him over 300 million reasons already.  Promise or not, his defense was not helping, and was a hindrance.

Regardless, the “promise” was a dead issue anyway, because Devers had been moved off third a few months earlier anyway.  The problem was he refused to help out his team when a teammate went down with a season-ending injury. Not sure why any “promise” that was already a dead issue is supposed to supersede that level of selfishness…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I just don't think CBOs look at this roster and think, wow these are the guys I'm going to have for the next 5 years. I think they know that everyone could be dealt and they are more focused on 2-3 years than what the team looks like well into the future. 

I would tweak that by saying they have a 5 year plan, and probably more like 7 years, but also a Plan B, C, D, etc.  

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sure - I dont actually think DHam will DH but my point is that there may come a time and probably will where we will be looking for offense, and Masa may be the provider of it at that point.

We got like 7 hits last postseason, and I think he had like 2 of em.

Slight hyperbole.

Yoshida can hit, but right now he probably isn’t the best option to start.  He has options.  He can be benched.  If Duran or Abreu are not traded, that doesn’t mean he has to go.  Especially since unloading him probably won’t create much budget wiggle room…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Also, are you sure its an "Atom" ball?

I always thought they were "Atem" balls ,as in you hit it hard but unfortunately right at 'em (or at them)

Kind of like "Up and atem" (which for the longest time I thought was up and adam and i was like biblical adam?)

Ya, you're right. "Atom" just looks/sounds better -- I hit it so hard it split atoms.

Of course, notin would argue unless you hit it right Adam Jones or Adam Everett... but not Ottavino (any Red Sox pitcher would throw you a double down the right field line).

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I really doubt Breslow is looking at the depth chart and thinking "Arias will really help us in 2028"

I'd bet that he does.  I'd be shocked if his current 2028 roster doesn't show Arias as our starting SS, and choice B being picking up Story's option.  You might not spend a lot of time on it, but I'd have a white board for every year between now and 2031.

Just for example, you wouldn't trade for a MLB-ready 23 year old OF because the board tells you that you won't have an opening for a number of years.  I wouldn't trade Witherspoon for a glove-first SS with an ETA of 2028 because we already have one.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Yoshida was our cleanup hitter in last years playoffs, and while I think we were bit by the injury bug in an above-average way, I dont think it was crazy.

People love to talk about how we used 9 pitchers last year, and therefore we need 9 starters (we have 12), but people dont consider as much the injuries to the other side.  Yoshida turned from near after-thought mid-season to clean up hitter in the playoffs

It can happen again. Two of Story, Duran, Abreu, Contreras get hurt, and we're prob looking for offense wherever we can find it.

Im not interested in moving Yoshida just to svae a couple mil or to make it cleaner regarding who will play where (e.g. opening up DH spot for Duran).  Im more interested in parking him on the bench (but he has to learn first base), giving him some at-bats when hes not in the everyday lineup to keep him fresh, and Im sure injuries will eventually give him a role.

Get rid of him , and you can wind up with David Hamilton as your DH.

Im not implying that I think hes a must keep or going to have a massive bounceback. Im more so thinking that we dont have a ton of hitting as is, and if we lose a couple bats to injury, I can very much see Yoshida becoming a significant part of our offense.

I have noticed fans like clean lineups. Know who plays here.  Who pitches.  Who’s the DH. Platooning is acceptable, as long as the lineup is definitive.

Yoshida is far from a problem on this roster. If he makes a run at the starting DH, not sure why that’s bad.  If he gets buried on the bench or in Worcester until needed, not sure why that’s bad either.  Not sure if he likes those options, but it’s his job to make them look questionable, not Cora’s job to hand him a role based on his salary…

[notin]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd bet that he does.  I'd be shocked if his current 2028 roster doesn't show Arias as our starting SS, and choice B being picking up Story's option.  You might not spend a lot of time on it, but I'd have a white board for every year between now and 2031.

Just for example, you wouldn't trade for a MLB-ready 23 year old OF because the board tells you that you won't have an opening for a number of years.  I wouldn't trade Witherspoon for a glove-first SS with an ETA of 2028 because we already have one.

Really?  Seems to me thats how teams would shoot themselves in the foot, among other places.

Fortunately MLB teams clearly don’t do that, which is why we see them do things like spend a first round pick on SS Mikey Romero one year after spending a first round pick on his former teammate SS Marcelo Mayer…

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I doubt they are dropping in to monitor.

That was more from a guidance perspective.  You can't make someone work out if they don't want to.  I was thinking more along the lines of going to the gym, checking his form, trying to get an update on what still hurts, making sure that they don't over-do it or under-do it.