A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BTV has a logic and a system, but there's something wrong with the notion that a comp pick of an unknown amateur "prospect" who hasn't played one inning of pro ball has more value than a Major League starting pitcher with a 9-1 won-loss record and 2.69 ERA for a last place team. 

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

Of course they base it on dollars, but does that always make sense?

Even if a team or owner (cough, Henry) eschews market prices for ballplayers, isn't the goal of a contending roster to include winning All-Stars on the payroll? 

It's hard to win when you're afraid to eschew more than you can swallow.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course they base it on dollars, but does that always make sense?

Even if a team or owner (cough, Henry) eschews market prices for ballplayers, isn't the goal of a contending roster to include winning All-Stars on the payroll? 

It's hard to win when you're afraid to eschew more than you can swallow.

In today’s game, it’s all about dollars.  I can promise in the ongoing CBA negotiations, no one will utter the phrase “All Star” and it will be completely omitted from the agreement.

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

It really is weird.  The CBO can point to a lot of good moves, but nobody loves you when you're playing .400 ball in June.

Hopefully things are now turning around. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BTV has a logic and a system, but there's something wrong with the notion that a comp pick of an unknown amateur "prospect" who hasn't played one inning of pro ball has more value than a Major League starting pitcher with a 9-1 won-loss record and 2.69 ERA for a last place team. 

Agreed. All they look at is 3 months of Gray's value minus his salary vs 5-6 years of the average value of a B Comp Pick.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

I mentioned this before. Also, Coulombe has done pretty well, too! After last night's Chapman performance, Coulombe now has the best OPS Against on the staff!

50+ PAs Against

.580 Coulombe

.581 Chapman

.586 Tolle (hard to do as a starter)

.605 Moran (done with rehab)

.606 Bennett (second rookie leading the rotation)

.607 Suarez (great signing by Brez)

.614 Kelly (in AAA)

.620 Whitlock (not a typo)

.639 Guerrero (another hidden gem addition)

.663 Gray (great trade, and got STL to pay $20M1)

____________________

.713 Samaniego (another Brez add)

.725 Weissert (meh)

.726 Early (3rd rookie in rotation)

.764 Watson (double meh)

__________________

.818 Crochet

.852 Bello

.871 Slaten

Whodathunk these 3 would be the bottom-dwellers?

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

PLUS BENNETT!!!

It might be the 3-4 best off seeason adds in a single season in Sox history.

Note: we are just halfway through the season, so this could change.

Add Durbin, Coulombe, Guerrero, Seigler, Monasterio & IKF.

What have we heard a lot of?

Harrison, Drohan, DHam and Jordan. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Possibly the $30mill salary on that pitcher?

St. Louis is paying a chunk of it, but they pay Boston that money, not Gray.  If Boston trades him, they can do so and keep all the Cardinals’ money….

It's $40M

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It really is weird.  The CBO can point to a lot of good moves, but nobody loves you when you're playing .400 ball in June.

Hopefully things are now turning around. 

Yup.

The situation was similar to Bloom's, except Bloom didn't make 3 great moves like these in his whole time with the Sox! LOL

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

PLUS BENNETT!!!

It might be the 3-4 best off seeason adds in a single season in Sox history.

Theo added Schilling, Foulke and ARod for a second, and that turned out alright.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Theo added Schilling, Foulke and ARod for a second, and that turned out alright.

ARod- LOL

Technically: Schilling, Foulke and Reese?

Maybe 2003 was better: Ortiz, Mueller, Millar/Kim/Timlin

[moonslav59]

Last Offseason- not including draft picks and IFA:

Traded: Harrison, Drohan, Fitts, DHam, Dobbins, Bernardino,  Perales, Hicks, Grissom, C Murphy, Jh Garcia, Hoppe, Sandlin, Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, L Guerrero, Aita, Reimer, Galle

(lost and regained: Paez & Bastardo/ Gained and lost: T Gray)

Acquired: Suarez, Contreras, S Gray, Bennett, Durbin, IKF, Coulombe, Monasterio, Seigler, Oviedo, T Guerrero, Samaniego, Watson, Gasper, Cheng, Kahnle, Ziehl, I Jackson, Thaiss, Delay, N Baez, Ro. Hernandez, L Heyman, A Guzman

________________________

2024-2025 Winter:

Traded: Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, Booser, Gasper, E Valdez, Wikelman, Elmer Rod

Added: Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler, J Wilson, Narvaez, Newcomb, Burdi, Moran, Eaton, Fajardo, Fulmer, Vogatsky

_________________________

2023-2024 Winter:

Traded: Sale, Verdugo, Schreiber, Urias, Ammons, Robertson & Santos, 

Added: Giolito, O'Neill, Romy, Fitts, Weissert, Slaten, Hendriks, Criswell, Grissom, Joely Rod, Heineman, Sandlin, I Campbell, Judice

I probably missed a few.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospeccts.com podcast listed the core 5 as: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Anthony and Rafaela (borderline)

Next tier 1A: Early, Bennett & Abreu (They have confidence in the pitching pipeline, so maybe can trade Early or Bennett, since they can be replaced. "Big chips to get a bat." Need to balance with a RHP starter, at some point. Eyanson + vets Crawford-Houck-Oviedo)

Core/Keepers? Contreras, Mayer, Whitlock, Slaten (Would listen on offers)

 

[cp176]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Soxprospeccts.com podcast listed the core 5 as: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Anthony and Rafaela (borderline)

Next tier 1A: Early, Bennett & Abreu (They have confidence in the pitching pipeline, so maybe can trade Early or Bennett, since they can be replaced. "Big chips to get a bat." Need to balance with a RHP starter, at some point. Eyanson + vets Crawford-Houck-Oviedo)

Core/Keepers? Contreras, Mayer, Whitlock, Slaten (Would listen on offers)

 

Nothing would make me trade Early for sure and likely Bennett as well.  Two kids who don’t overthrow and who are learning on the fly.  I would trade Houck, Crawford, and Oviedo before I would trade either of those two.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Nothing would make me trade Early for sure and likely Bennett as well.  Two kids who don’t overthrow and who are learning on the fly.  I would trade Houck, Crawford, and Oviedo before I would trade either of those two.

So you want to trade the injured guys.🤔. I’m trading anyone who can get me a legit big bat.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

this is truly a weird season.  Despite all the flak Breslow gets, he arguably had an amazing offseason.

Sonny Gray 2.69 ERA

Ranger Suarez 2.83 ERA

Wilson Contreras .898 OPS. 
 

how often does a team add three players who perform at an elite level and go from a playoff team to last place? If Durbin keeps playing at this level that’s a 4th.

I've been saying this since April.  The issue isn't the off-season acquisitions.  It is the guys that were already on the team. Substitute their 2025 numbers for their 2026 numbers for Story, Anthony, Narvaez, and Duran, and we have a better-than-average OPS.

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I've been saying this since April.  The issue isn't the off-season acquisitions.  It is the guys that were already on the team. Substitute their 2025 numbers for their 2026 numbers for Story, Anthony, Narvaez, and Duran, and we have a better-than-average OPS.

If we had our 2025 players play like 2025 with our 2026 additions we’d be in first place right now.

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If we had our 2025 players play like 2025 with our 2026 additions we’d be in first place right now.

 

Several players from the 2025 team were approaching prime or at peak prime. They should have done better and not just the same.

A few players were young enough that projecting improvement was not justified. Call it the "sophomore slump" and some players have down seasons year 3 or 4, too, but too many are doing worse (Durbin & Mayer), way worse (Narvaez) or are hurt (Anthony.) Blame Brez and ourselves for hoping for better than what these guys have given us, but these 4 hurt us badly. (Durbin is seeking redemption.)

Abreu plateau'd in peak prime. Duran fell sharply just as he reached the "peak" years. Yoshida is in prime and got worse.

Story was already past peak prime, but not so far past that this type of cliff dive was to be expected. The injury seemed like a near blessing,

Wong bounced back. Rafaela continued the normal bell curve rise as he gets closer to prime.