A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

On 6/16/2026 at 12:44 PM, notin said:

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?

I would do it.  I said this last year, during his hot streak, that his trade value might have exceeded his real value.  Early could still be a good pitcher, but his ceiling is like a #3.  I'd make the trade and mix and match pitchers until Crochet and Bello get back.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You know what's funny?  We probably did as well as almost anyone picking up these three guys.  

Yes it’s the holdovers that have been mostly the problem.

[JoeBrady]

On 6/16/2026 at 2:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter.

I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

I agree.  Shaw should be good, but I wouldn't count on him being great.  And that's fine with me.

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, notin said:

None of Durbin, Anthony, nor Mayer began the year with a full MLB season, and Narvaez had just one.

Which one would you have gotten rid of or demoted?

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Agree…. Contreras was good. Offsets the abysmal effort for Schwarber and Alonso. I still think Alonso would have raked in Fenway. And Contreras in record season will probably not match Alonso productivity offensively. That deal aside. 

1. missed on Marte. Early/ Mayer most likely would have got deal done. F

2. missed on Bregman would still have Harrison too. 

My understanding was that AZ wanted Tolle+  That would've been a disaster.

We didn't miss on Bregman as much as the Cubs missed on Bregman.  I'm not writing him off, but I'm guessing that the Cubs wouldn't be averse to moving his contract.

[JoeBrady]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Almost anytime someone suggested trading Duran, a bunch of posters argued trading our best or one or our best offensive weapons was counterproductive.

I'd have traded him earlier, but after we acquired Suarez, it felt like we needed his offense.  He's still a really good player.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My understanding was that AZ wanted Tolle+  That would've been a disaster.

We didn't miss on Bregman as much as the Cubs missed on Bregman.  I'm not writing him off, but I'm guessing that the Cubs wouldn't be averse to moving his contract.

AZ wanted Tolle AND Early. That doesn't work for me. 

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This is no apology, but almost all of us sucked with our "better ideas."

I'd still rather have Contreras than Alonso.

I'd rather have Suarez than Bregman.

Hell, Durbin over Bichette looks okay, too.

Sonny Gray over most top FA pitchers looks good, too.

There was little-to-nothing we could've done.  Just for fun, let's suppose we added Contreras, Suarez, Gray and Durbin.

AND then added Alonso, Bregman, and Bichette.

There is a pretty good chance that we'd be in last place with a 29-41 record.  All three of those guys would be marginal improvements at best.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, Hitch said:

I haven't checked but that's bizarre if true. This feels like the worst Sox team I've watched, and yet, oddly, it also feels not a million miles away from being a contender. Some of the players are playing way below their level, and some are just not good enough, but a smart deadline and summer, and I really believe that we will be a contender next year.

The problem is, I hold no hope we'll have a smart deadline (or summer if Bres is still there). 

The beauty of this team, IMHO, is we have very good strengths, and easily fixable weaknesses.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pythagorean records are interesting but ultimately meaningless.  We have seen teams with massive discrepancies over entire seasons.  

About 5 teams per year wind up more than +/- 6 or more games.  It is pretty accurate.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

There was little-to-nothing we could've done.  Just for fun, let's suppose we added Contreras, Suarez, Gray and Durbin.

AND then added Alonso, Bregman, and Bichette.

There is a pretty good chance that we'd be in last place with a 29-41 record.  All three of those guys would be marginal improvements at best.

Alonso is a substantial improvement at DH. Bregman is a substantial improvement in the clubhouse where this current group has failed. I don't care about Bichette.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Just read a stat that the Sox are 0-30 when trailing by 3 runs or more at any point in a game. I knew you guys were sucking, but I didn't realize you guys were sucking THIS badly. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Just read a stat that the Sox are 0-30 when trailing by 3 runs or more at any point in a game. I knew you guys were sucking, but I didn't realize you guys were sucking THIS badly. 

Only 9 wins if the other team scores first, I think. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

The beauty of this team, IMHO, is we have very good strengths, and easily fixable weaknesses.

How is the offense easily fixable?

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

AZ wanted Tolle AND Early. That doesn't work for me. 

How do you know exactly what they were willing to take.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

About 5 teams per year wind up more than +/- 6 or more games.  It is pretty accurate.

Sure, but in what sense does it matter?

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The way to measure Craig Breslow is by the Red Sox winning % and lesser by how the farm is doing. Not so great this year! 

Of course, that is the major indicator.

I'm not saying he's done a good or great job. 

While Bloom set the bar low, I do think Brez has done a better job with the roster, despite the near 2020 W-L%.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

You know what's funny?  We probably did as well as almost anyone picking up these three guys.  

That has been a point I keep bringing up.

We started with a pretty good roster, if 2025 was for real. (Big if, I guess.)

We lost Bregman, who missed much of 2025 and Giolito, who did well in 2025. We added 3 very good performing players, perhaps better than any other team's best 3 additions, but we ended up sucking.

One can claim we were not as good as the 2025 record, and maybe we are not as bad as the 2026 record. The Pythagorean number shows we are 5 games better, for what that is worth.

We've been near the .500 mark or worse for way too many years.

We can try to be optimistic about the youth factor & farm of this team, but the continued waiting is a real drag.

How Soon Is Now?