A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Or sell high on him?

We’re talking about a player with 2.7 fWAR on June 15th that has only once had more than 2.8 fWAR over a full season. A player that has 16 HRs on June 15th that hasn’t topped 22 HRs in a full season since 2019, and even then only had 24.  
 

If you think the Sox need to rebuild, can they do it by unloading all their struggling players like Narvaez, Durbin and Mayer?  And if so, does that mean Boston is giving up on them too quickly?

They should keep building around guys like Durbin, Mayer and Narvaez. That's the way to go for sure. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Don't know. Concerning that he hurt himself just swinging the bat. 

And it was concerning that Chris Sale broke a rib while throwing a pitch.  But it didn’t end his career…

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Or sell high on him?

We’re talking about a player with 2.7 fWAR on June 15th that has only once had more than 2.8 fWAR over a full season. A player that has 16 HRs on June 15th that hasn’t topped 22 HRs in a full season since 2019, and even then only had his career high of 24.  
 

If you think the Sox need to rebuild, can they do it by unloading all their struggling players like Narvaez, Durbin and Mayer?  And if so, does that mean Boston is giving up on them too quickly?

Contreras is our lone RH power bat. and you know as well as anyone that if we trade him, we're going to be looking for -guess what? a RH power bat.

i've wanted to get rid of Mayer for years. dump him, Narv, Wong, Monostereo, and all the rest of replacement lever crap we've accumulated since DD was fired. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And it was concerning that Chris Sale broke a rib while throwing a pitch.  But it didn’t end his career…

Didn't say that this is ending Roman's career either. Maybe that there could just be a better way to keep him healthy going forward. 

[mvp 78]

Rosenthal has the Giants looking to trade Arraez, Robbie Ray and possibly Chapman. He says it's less likely they'll move Devers or Adames as he doesn't believe the trade package they'd receive would be worth it. Not really sure what Robbie Rays is going to bring in for a return these days. They are not willing to part with Logan Webb. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Contreras is our lone RH power bat. and you know as well as anyone that if we trade him, we're going to be looking for -guess what? a RH power bat.

i've wanted to get rid of Mayer for years. dump him, Narv, Wong, Monostereo, and all the rest of replacement lever crap we've accumulated since DD was fired. 

Contreras is 34 and having a career year.  I could understand selling high; he very likely won’t be the same hitter next year anyway. (I doubt they do, but it’s not necessarily crazy.)

Wong and Monasterio are bench players; dumping them gives minimal improvement at best.  Whats.the improvement hope here? Players with warmer butts to keep the bench even toastier?  Or maybe larger ones?  Like let’s get MLB lard asses like Jacob Stallings and Rowdy Tellez on that bench and warm the whole thing at once?
 

You’ve wanted to get rid of Mayer FOR YEARS!?  He’s 23 years old, has barely 300 career MLB at-bats, and was a top 15 prospect on both BA and MLB.com rankings FOUR TIMES EACH, going back to when he was 19 years old.  What was it about the highly-acclaimed teenager that made you think “we gotta dump this kid! And fast!”?

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Rosenthal has the Giants looking to trade Arraez, Robbie Ray and possibly Chapman. He says it's less likely they'll move Devers or Adames as he doesn't believe the trade package they'd receive would be worth it. Not really sure what Robbie Rays is going to bring in for a return these days. They are not willing to part with Logan Webb. 

Presumably not looking for salary dumps, either, right?

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Didn't say that this is ending Roman's career either. Maybe that there could just be a better way to keep him healthy going forward. 

Whatever he did in the minors worked 

[moonslav59]

I'm probably lucky to miss the last 2 weeks of chat and watching the games.

For the first time in forever, I won't go back and watch the games, It seems pointless.

This season is so discouraging and depressing.

There have been some good performances here and there, and a few players are doing well, but what a horrible meltdown this team has had, so far.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but there is no reason to expect a turn-around. If the deadline were today, I'd trade every 1 year guys and also Duran and 2-3 year players who seem to not fit into the future. I'm not for a total rebuild and a 5 year plan. I'd look for ML players or near ML prospects in return.

This is hard to watch. I saw the game last night in the plane to Houston. Hard to stomach. 

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, according to FanGraphs: -0.50 Clutch for Rafaela. 😐

According to BR, his career OPS is .709 and career .714 with RISP.  But it does seem like he always got more RBIs from the 9-slot than seemed possible.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Contreras is 34 and having a career year.  I could understand selling high; he very likely won’t be the same hitter next year anyway. (I doubt they do, but it’s not necessarily crazy.)

Wong and Monasterio are bench players; dumping them gives minimal improvement at best.  Whats.the improvement hope here? Players with warmer butts to keep the bench even toastier?  Or maybe larger ones?  Like let’s get MLB lard asses like Jacob Stallings and Rowdy Tellez on that bench and warm the whole thing at once?
 

You’ve wanted to get rid of Mayer FOR YEARS!?  He’s 23 years old, has barely 300 career MLB at-bats, and was a top 15 prospect on both BA and MLB.com rankings FOUR TIMES EACH, going back to when he was 19 years old.  What was it about the highly-acclaimed teenager that made you think “we gotta dump this kid! And fast!”?

so......thanks for admitting we have an entire lineup of bench warmers.

my OPINION of Mayer has always been far less than everyone else. and just because, by gawd, MLB and BA had him ranked Top 15 doesn't mean i have to toe the line and agree with every opinion they have. just not they way i work. and i'd be curious to know just how perfect they are with their clairvoyance.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rosenthal has the Giants looking to trade Arraez, Robbie Ray and possibly Chapman. He says it's less likely they'll move Devers or Adames as he doesn't believe the trade package they'd receive would be worth it. Not really sure what Robbie Rays is going to bring in for a return these days. They are not willing to part with Logan Webb. 

With the exception of a dwindling number of RS fans, Devers is considered very difficult to move.  From Dayn Perry-Verdict: Very difficult to move

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Presumably not looking for salary dumps, either, right?

Looking?  No.  But they know, for certain, they are eating salary.  And they know that everyone else knows this.

[moonslav59]

Some OPS numbers of players mentioned over the winter...

.973 Kurtz

.972 Wood

.965 Willson

.962 A Vaughn

.949 Jeffers

.938 Murakami

.930 Schwarber

.915 Yandy Diaz

.903 Max Muncy LAD

.894 CJ Abrams

.881 Rushing

.844 N Lowe

.839 Donovan

.837 B Lowe

.808 Alonso

.800 Kody Clemens

.794 G Torres

.791 O'Hearn

.787 Arraez

.785 Teoscar

.761 Okamoto

.753 Neto

.752 Meidroth & Willi Castro

.750 KMarte

.735 V Grissom .725 Paredes .718 Chisholm

.709 Tucker .706 Devers & M Andujar

.699 Hoskins .697 M Shaw .692 Willy Adames

.690 Bregman .687 J Naylor .684 T Gray .680 R Lewis

.674 Stott .658 Bogaerts .657 Seager .656 Hoerner .652 J Bell

.646 Bichette .641 Betts .636 E Suarez .635 DHam .634 Vaz

.626 Baty & Bohm .606 Realmuto .601 Yanner Diaz

.598 T Turner .596 Swanson .574 Ozuna .566 O"Neil 

.534 Rengifo .532 Polanco .472 JGarcia (37 PAs) .462 Refsnyder (99)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

On 6/14/2026 at 4:19 PM, JoeBrady said:

That's almost unfathomable.  If we added Mookie, Bogey & Raffy (1.5 bWAR), instead of Contreras, Gray & Suarez (4.8), we'd be behind the Rockies.  Not to mention a future obligation of > $600K.

You're looking at currently, maybe the 3 worst contracts in baseball.

I would disagree on Betts, because he has earned his contract in previous years and it's too early to write him off this year.  The Bogaerts and Devers contracts look pretty bad.

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They should keep building around guys like Durbin, Mayer and Narvaez. That's the way to go for sure. 

So you think it’s time to give up on them?

[Hugh2]

IDK, I'd certainly love some of the Mariners suspects right now. 

 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

What was it about the highly-acclaimed teenager that made you think “we gotta dump this kid! And fast!”?

Injury history? Could be the only thing. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

So you think it’s time to give up on them?

I don't think they are building blocks or foundational pieces that's for sure. You need to build around guys like Contreras if you are a serious team. 

[notin]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think they are building blocks or foundational pieces that's for sure. You need to build around guys like Contreras if you are a serious team. 

They may not be the foundation, but what building is all foundation?

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

They may not be the foundation, but what building is all foundation?

a building where no one wants to put any money into?

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

They may not be the foundation, but what building is all foundation?

The 2026 team is making Breslow's architectural skills look like crap.

[notin]

13 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so......thanks for admitting we have an entire lineup of bench warmers.

my OPINION of Mayer has always been far less than everyone else. and just because, by gawd, MLB and BA had him ranked Top 15 doesn't mean i have to toe the line and agree with every opinion they have. just not they way i work. and i'd be curious to know just how perfect they are with their clairvoyance.

Why such the low opinion?  He had a few injuries, but he was also pretty good.  MLB and BA and Baseball Prospectus are not 100% accurate - no one whose job involves predicting the future is - but what about him didn’t you like?  And when did you start not liking him?

And yes the Sox have seen too many bench players creep into the starting lineup.  Even Yoshida wasn’t expected to start given the roster on opening day.  But they’re without Antjony, Story, and Casas and even the bench players (Sogard) are starting to go down with injuries.  It doesn’t help that another third of their starters are serving year players (Durbin, Narvaez, Mayer) and for many second year players, sophomore slumps are real.  It’s taken over 2 full seasons for Rafaela to turn into a contributing starter (and a major contributor at that), but it’s been worth it…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think they are building blocks or foundational pieces that's for sure. You need to build around guys like Contreras if you are a serious team. 

Contreras is their scariest player.  How often does anyone have a career year at 34?  Maybe his offense was surpressed by playing catcher all those years. Maybe.  But counting on him to be this good going forward is disappointment material.  Especially for 2027.

Contreras feels like a serious “sell high” candidate.  Although not sure how many teams will be looking for RHH slugging 1b/DH types…

[Old Red]

I’m fine with sticking with, and counting on the Con Man for 2027. Who’s his replacement if he left?. It’s taken the Red Sox a few years now, and many tryouts to get someone the caliber of the Con Man as it is to play 1B. Even if he falls off some he’s fine for now.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m fine with sticking with, and counting on the Con Man for 2027. Who’s his replacement if he left?. It’s taken the Red Sox a few years now, and many tryouts to get someone the caliber of the Con Man as it is to play 1B. Even if he falls off some he’s fine for now.

Thats fair. 
 

When free agency offers a choice between Ryan Mountcastle, Alec Bohm, and an aging Yandy Diaz, I could see keeping Contreras for another year.

I would rather roll the dice with Casas than bring in Mountcastle or Bohm…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

a building where no one wants to put any money into?

Post of the month, works on multiple levels (or should i say floors)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 2026 team is making Breslow's architectural skills look like crap.

I wouldnt hire him

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

Contreras is their scariest player.  How often does anyone have a career year at 34?  Maybe his offense was surpressed by playing catcher all those years. Maybe.  But counting on him to be this good going forward is disappointment material.  Especially for 2027.

Contreras feels like a serious “sell high” candidate.  Although not sure how many teams will be looking for RHH slugging 1b/DH types…

Good teams get sluggers.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I would disagree on Betts, because he has earned his contract in previous years and it's too early to write him off this year.  The Bogaerts and Devers contracts look pretty bad.

We all knew the back end of his 10+/12 year could get scary. His deal began in 2021, so he's really had just 4 good years in the deal (21-24.) In those 4 good years the Dodgers won rings, and Betts averages 133 games a year- missing an average or 23% of all possible games. His OPS was .899 (145 OPS+) While .873 in a very nice OPS, he only topped that once in those 4 years- that doozy of a 2023 season at .987 -2nd in MVP voting)

While he might resurge, 2025 was not a great year, either: .732 OPS (102 OPS+)

2025-2026: .714 (99 OPS+) in 199 games. He turns 34 in October. He is owed...

$25M at age 34

30 at 35

30 at 36

30 at 37

27.5 at 38 and 39 (2032)

$115M of deferred money will be paid from 2033 to 2044.

That's $285M still owed- almost what we reportedly offered him ($300M/10.)

Many use the rings as the main guide of success, and I have myself used this. Years from now, the deal may look rather "meh."

One thing is for sure, the return of Verdugo, who turned into Weissert & Fitts, Wong & Downs gave us very little. One could argue Fitts was a main part of the Sonny Gray trade, but that gets rather complex.

I wish we had kept Betts, but he'd be no savior for this season.