A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

A lot of people were really excited about the Sox just getting playoff experience from 2025. I'm not sure what exactly it provided to this group or FO. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2001 Red Sox

Manny's first season. Nomar appears on the cover of SI. An old wrist injury is aggravated in ST and he appears in 20 G. Sox start off hot and are in first place in April and stay in the mix through late June. Pedro only throws 13 IP after July 1 and the wheels completely fall off without him. They were in 1st on July 2nd, but end the season 13 GB going 28-46 through Oct 2nd (ended the season on a meaningless 5 game win streak). 

It was over when Varitek, age 29 and coming into his own having a career year, dove for a pop foul and broke his elbow on the dumb wooden on-deck logo. 

So three legit star players went down. This year we have Crochet and now Contreras out. Anthony was kind of a star... in the WBC and team yearbook and preseason media guides. But there's no Manny still in the line-up.

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's the major piece.

When you see how close we are to the #5 team, one could also say, if Durbin & Mayer were hitting just .725, IKF at .625 and Chapman, Whitlock & Weissert were closer to their 2025 numbers, we could be tied for the last playoff slot (and still suck.)

#5 team? They are 7 games UNDER 500! I don’t care if that put them in 1st place. THEY SUCK! You keep saying if this, and if that. If doesn’t count, and isn’t happening.🙈

[dannycater]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A lot of people were really excited about the Sox just getting playoff experience from 2025. I'm not sure what exactly it provided to this group or FO. 

It was exciting except you are supposed to build on it...so first you don't re-sign Bregman, who clearly helped that dugout. You refuse to move on from Yoshida (albeit did well in his few ABs v. Yanks) and instead decide let's have 5 OF..as much as I didn't think Refsnyder was all that, he at least hit lefty pitching well and was better suited for platooning than a Yoshida or Duran. Then sure you get Contreras, but really don't want any big bopper...they set them up to have crappy offense. Declaring Durbin as a 3B, putting kids in awkward spots to be regulars...bad team and expecting better D and pitching to carry you is what killed the B's too--no offense despite Vezina goaltending. No offense is no offense. It kills you and even the Pats had no offense in AFC title and Super Bowl. Without the offense, forget winning.

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2001 Red Sox

Manny's first season. Nomar appears on the cover of SI. An old wrist injury is aggravated in ST and he appears in 20 G. Sox start off hot and are in first place in April and stay in the mix through late June. Pedro only throws 13 IP after July 1 and the wheels completely fall off without him. They were in 1st on July 2nd, but end the season 13 GB going 28-46 through Oct 2nd (ended the season on a meaningless 5 game win streak). 

That was certainly a frustrating season but at last they finished above .500 this team is on pace to lose 90 games.  I'd say this season is worse (so far).

I mean if falling off a cliff is the criteria here then I'd say 2011 is up there too.  But even then, with these seasons at some point there was hope and excitement.  These Sox have literally sucked from the very beginning.....much more depressing to me. 

[dannycater]

Just now, Old Red said:

#5 team? They are 7 games UNDER 500! I don’t care if that put them in 1st place. THEY SUCK!🙈

The way the Globe has portrayed some stories is laughable...The one about look how great the rotation is that was 8-6 (8-6 is great?) in the last 14 and that's 4th best ERA in that time...ummm, they are an under .500 team that can't hit it 200 feet let alone 385...this is awful. No spin shows you also how boring they are to watch. The young kids who hope to be Anthony fans or Durbin or the future, I feel sorry for them.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That was certainly a frustrating season but at last they finished above .500 this team is on pace to lose 90 games.  I'd say this season is worse (so far).

I mean if falling off a cliff is the criteria here then I'd say 2011 is up there too.  But even then, with these seasons at some point there was hope and excitement.  These Sox have literally sucked from the very beginning.....much more depressing to me. 

But at least those teams scored some runs.

[dannycater]

Red is right...trying to compare this Banjo hitting, chi-chi sox like group to any of the Sox teams of the last 50 years is insulting to the lat 50 BoSox teams...Take all the analytics out of it, and it still comes down to offense. No offense, you lose. That's it...simple as that..bad team, no power, no runs. Breslow wanted this, he's got it. And he will be fired soon, I believe that.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think Whats most want is the team to not be wrong.

That's an absolute no-brainer.  Obviously, the more valuable the player, the higher the importance of getting it right.  The most successful companies I ever worked for seldom made any mistakes at any level.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think Whats most want is the team to not be wrong.  Yes, some early extensions don’t work out.  Guess what?  So do a lot of free agent contracts.  What team is being killed by bad contracts given to pre-arb players?  What about free agents? Are we pretending those always work out?  Whose more tradable - Campbell or Story?

I agree, I also believe that being scared of any inefficiency is one of our problems.

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

But at least those teams scored some runs.

exactly, this team is both depressing AND boring. 

Pitching and defense is a lot sexier when you WIN

[dannycater]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, I also believe that being scared of any inefficiency is one of our problems.

inefficiency is like saying play responsible 200-foot hockey and don't make mistakes and don't take chances...that resulted in: 1 goal, 1 goal, 1 goal, 1 goal...last 240 regulation minutes. Be afraid, be very afraid!

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you saying that Yankees prospects don't have a history of being overhyped? 

But what does that have to do with them not being neutral?  My original point was these players were not solely hyped by Boston but rather by a neutral (as is no allegiance to any team) party. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree that to some extent this is fluky.  But besides the rooks who are they banking on? Story, Contreras? Where are the adult, all star, elite level proven leader veterans leading this team?  They don't exist and teams that win often have them.  

They clearly banked on the same players as last year.  Duran, Anthony, Story, Abreu, and Contreras replacing Bregman.  It worked last year but not so much this year…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

His current salary would be microscopic if they didn't extend it. Just throwing money down the drain. For PR? 

Then I must once again ask, if his extended salary is microscopic, and his non-extended salary is microscopic,  and he is (at minimum) a really good player, what is the issue?

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

But what does that have to do with them not being neutral?  My original point was these players were not solely hyped by Boston but rather by a neutral (as is no allegiance to any team) party. 

Another no-brainer.  The idea that there is some conspiracy to create rating publications, in order to hype RS prospects, is a little bizarre.  FG currently has us ranked as #13 and the NYY as #25.  

[notin]

53 minutes ago, dannycater said:

Red is right...trying to compare this Banjo hitting, chi-chi sox like group to any of the Sox teams of the last 50 years is insulting to the lat 50 BoSox teams...Take all the analytics out of it, and it still comes down to offense. No offense, you lose. That's it...simple as that..bad team, no power, no runs. Breslow wanted this, he's got it. And he will be fired soon, I believe that.

Cincinnati ranks one place ahead of Boston in runs scored, but is 22-20 while playing in a division where every team is over .500.

When watching teams like this, it’s easy to pretend a potent offense is at least more fun to watch.  It isn’t.  Watching an 11-9 loss is just as frustrating.  The Sox SP has been excellent lately and no one is talking about it.

The offense isn’t working, but it wasn’t ignored.   The changes either didn’t work or have had minimal impact.  

The bullpen?  That was ignored.  Making changes that don’t work is understandable and going to happen.  Status quo?  Rarely acceptable. Stand still?  You’re road kill…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Another no-brainer.  The idea that there is some conspiracy to create rating publications, in order to hype RS prospects, is a little bizarre.  FG currently has us ranked as #13 and the NYY as #25.  

Any job that involves predicting the future will be wrong a certain portion of the time. Watch your weatherman.  Check your Vegas  oddsmakers.  Read pre-season NFL predictions.  

The only person ever to accurately predict the future was Nostradamus, and even then it’s because people wait for something to happen, make up a cryptic quote describing the event, and attribute it to him…

[dannycater]

Just now, notin said:

Any job that involves predicting the future will be wrong a certain portion of the time. Watch your weatherman.  Check your Vegas  oddsmakers.  Read pre-season NFL predictions.  

The only person ever to accurately predict the future was Nostradamus, and even then it’s because people wait for something to happen, make up a cryptic quote describing the event, and attribute it to him…

can Nostradamus hit a baseball? Sign him up.

[Hugh2]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

They clearly banked on the same players as last year.  Duran, Anthony, Story, Abreu, and Contreras replacing Bregman.  It worked last year but not so much this year…

They also HAD a Bregman last year.  None of those other guys have ever been very consistent.  Duran has had up and down years, Story had a good season but his career had been riddled with injuries and he is now 33, relying on a 33 year old Trevor Story to just "work" again should be malpractice. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Any job that involves predicting the future will be wrong a certain portion of the time. Watch your weatherman.  Check your Vegas  oddsmakers.  Read pre-season NFL predictions.  

The only person ever to accurately predict the future was Nostradamus, and even then it’s because people wait for something to happen, make up a cryptic quote describing the event, and attribute it to him…

Oddly enough the weatherman are 100% accurate at how accurate they are. 

If they tell you there's a 90% chance of rain and it doesn't rain every says the weatherman can't predict anyting.  But if you took 1,000 instances of them predicting 90% rain you'd find 900 times it rained and 100 times it did not. 

A lot of people predicted this Sox team would lack the firepower and leadership on offense to score runs. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Cincinnati ranks one place ahead of Boston in runs scored, but is 22-20 while playing in a division where every team is over .500.

When watching teams like this, it’s easy to pretend a potent offense is at least more fun to watch.  It isn’t.  Watching an 11-9 loss is just as frustrating.  The Sox SP has been excellent lately and no one is talking about it.

The offense isn’t working, but it wasn’t ignored.   The changes either didn’t work or have had minimal impact.  

The bullpen?  That was ignored.  Making changes that don’t work is understandable and going to happen.  Status quo?  Rarely acceptable?  Stand still?  You’re road kill…

Yup.

I do think even they will admit they fell short of their offense additions goal. 

They probably exceeded their goal on SP'er additions and figured the "excess) (yeah right) could be used to bolster the pen.

They did take a pretty big swing (Suarez, Contreras & Gray) and those guys have not done poorly, but the end result is that our offense DID need another big bat. In hindsight, we probably needed two more big bats on top of Contreras. We also needed more pitching, despite what looked like decent SP'er depth, last winter.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

The offense isn’t working, but it wasn’t ignored.   The changes either didn’t work or have had minimal impact.  

The bullpen?  That was ignored.

Agreed.  The offense isn't working because Story, Duran and RA haven't shown up yet.

The BP doesn't work because we don't have enough key arms.

An the BP issue is worse because the fixes don't cost a gazillion $$$ like Bichette, Bregman, etc.

[dannycater]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

They also HAD a Bregman last year.  None of those other guys have ever been very consistent.  Duran has had up and down years, Story had a good season but his career had been riddled with injuries and he is now 33, relying on a 33 year old Trevor Story to just "work" again should be malpractice. 

Story was great last year for once, Bregman was awesome enough and awesome enough in some clutch ABs, or why he is such a great performer, or why he was signed...The Sox had platoon infielders who suddenly performed in the Yanks series...they had Refsnyder during the reg season and he was pretty much most consistent hitter, and they had Romy who also hit lefties...this is a completely different team offensively in so many ways...Anthony was pretty great til he got hurt (sounds like the Poitras thing all over again in a B's comparison). This is not just standing pat, it's they were asking to be a banjo team and they got it. No power, and now not even any OBP to speak of.

[notin]

54 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, I also believe that being scared of any inefficiency is one of our problems.

All teams do that.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Agreed.  The offense isn't working because Story, Duran and RA haven't shown up yet.

The BP doesn't work because we don't have enough key arms.

An the BP issue is worse because the fixes don't cost a gazillion $$$ like Bichette, Bregman, etc.

Thats the thing.

You can fix an entire bullpen for less money than it costs to add a 34yo DH on a multiyear deal.  Thats really inexcusable…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They also HAD a Bregman last year.  None of those other guys have ever been very consistent.  Duran has had up and down years, Story had a good season but his career had been riddled with injuries and he is now 33, relying on a 33 year old Trevor Story to just "work" again should be malpractice. 

Ummmm…. No. 
 

This is Duran’s first down year unless you count 2021 and 2022 when he never played as many as 70 games…

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Ummmm…. No. 
 

This is Duran’s first down year unless you count 2021 and 2022 when he never played as many as 70 games…

Ummmm ok what are we arguing over here, the fact that Duran has been the shinning glimmering example of consistency? we are talking about the Sox lacking sure fire, elite star power at the top of their offense.  Duran has had ONE season in his entire career where he has been that.  I like Duran, I figure he can turn it around but he is certianly NOT that guy. 

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Thats the thing.

You can fix an entire bullpen for less money than it costs to add a 34yo DH on a multiyear deal.  Thats really inexcusable…

Except the bullpen isn't why we are losing games.  The offense has retired. 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, dannycater said:

Story was great last year for once...

He was much better than before and played a full season. He was not "great"

His defense fell off a cliff.