A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Am I allowed to pretend Eddie Romero is one of my faves, the late great, Eddie Guerrero?  

Yes. Delusion is a fine coping mechanism…

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW so far this season Ketel Marte has posted a .184/.262/.316/.578 in 42 plate appearances for an OPS+ of 62:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml

It's early.

0 E

3 DRS

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I heard an interview with the Sea Dogs manager today talking about Mayer, and he said even though he played Mayer more at SS when he was at Portland he thought Mayer would be a better 3B.

We also heard that Xander would outgrow SS and he's still there 12 years later. 

[iortiz]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela and Abreu aren't inexperienced. Narvaez is 27! Don't need to find excuses for these guys anymore.

oh, I´m not excusing them at all. My point is that Breslow decided to go all the way with youngsters and zero expirienced elite proven bats. All these young felleas have potential but they are still a gamble. The pressuere on this young fellas might destroy them in a couple of weeks. 

In the offseeason I wanted Bregman and Bichette. Those were very affordable. Story would have had limited time with Mayer taking most of the load. 

 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Am I allowed to pretend Eddie Romero is one of my faves, the late great, Eddie Guerrero?  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, iortiz said:

oh, I´m not excusing them at all. My point is that Breslow decided to go all the way with youngsters and zero expirienced elite proven bats. All these young felleas have potential but they are still a gamble. The pressuere on this young fellas might destroy them in a couple of weeks. 

In the offseeason I wanted Bregman and Bichette. Those were very affordable. Story would have had limited time with Mayer taking most of the load. 

 

Going all in on the young players was a decision made prior to Breslow's tenure. That call was made by JH and others.

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

Who would pay for this poor start to the season? The coach to bring in Varitek, the GM for the postseason, or a player trade that no one expected? Who is the leader of this team, and is Cora's message no longer getting through? These are all questions I've been asking myself since the beginning of the season.

[iortiz]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Going all in on the young players was a decision made prior to Breslow's tenure. That call was made by JH and others.

I don't think it was a good idea. It's like making a parlay of 9 lines. If you are wrong in one line, you lose.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Jean-Sébastien Blouin said:

Who would pay for this poor start to the season? The coach to bring in Varitek, the GM for the postseason, or a player trade that no one expected? Who is the leader of this team, and is Cora's message no longer getting through? These are all questions I've been asking myself since the beginning of the season.

Varitek has had several interviews with other teams for their open managerial roles but has not received an offer. It's interesting that he is still just working with the pitchers (Game Planning and Run Prevention Coach) and hasn't become a bench coach under Cora. Typically, bench coach is the next step before manager. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I already have. The Red Sox are dysfunctional, and unreliable, which is predictable. I answer how I want to, and not how you want me to. Worst record in all of baseball, and behind EVERY OTHER team in the league for any postseason spot. It seems you can’t handle the truth.

Huh?

I agree with all of this, but you wont say if you have given up, yet. That is a truth as well.

Do you predict we miss the playoffs?

Try a simple yes or no and stop with the straddling both lanes, so you can later claim you were right, no matter what happens.

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

I haven't given up yet. I don't like the situation and I don't like the way this team is playing. Something's going to happen, a trade or a firing. I wonder where this team is headed.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

I agree with all of this, but you wont say if you have given up, yet. That is a truth as well.

Do you predict we miss the playoffs?

Try a simple yes or no and stop with the straddling both lanes, so you can later claim you were right, no matter what happens.

Given up yet? I really haven’t even started. I say the same thing around this same time every year that the Red SOx are on the back burner to me, because there is to much else going on. March Madness just finished, and the Bruins, and Celtics will be starting the playoffs soon not to mention the NFL draft, so I haven’t watched much of the Red Sox. I have to rely on some of the objective posters on here like Fred to keep me informed of what’s going on outside of looking at the box scores, but when I get into really watching I’ll let you know. Are the Red Sox as bad a team as their record suggests???  Most  likely not, but at the moment by all accounts they look worse.

[Old Red]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Going all in on the young players was a decision made prior to Breslow's tenure. That call was made by JH and others.

And applauded by many on here.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And applauded by many on here.

I think you can go the young route while filling in the gaps with several veterans. The Sox forgot about the last part. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you can go the young route while filling in the gaps with several veterans. The Sox forgot about the last part. 

I think it was more about not wanting to pay then forgetting.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Given up yet? I really haven’t even started. I say the same thing around this same time every year that the Red SOx are on the back burner to me, because there is to much else going on. March Madness just finished, and the Bruins, and Celtics will be starting the playoffs soon not to mention the NFL draft, so I haven’t watched much of the Red Sox. I have to rely on some of the objective posters on here like Fred to keep me informed of what’s going on outside of looking at the box scores, but when I get into really watching I’ll let you know. Are the Red Sox as bad a team as their record suggests???  Most  likely not, but at the moment by all accounts they look worse.

I think we all feel like this, so I don't get the whole "you can't handle the truth" thing. I haven't been arguing we will make the payoffs. I haven't disagreed with anything.

When someone says we are toast, you seem to criticize them for already giving up, so I asked if you have given up, and you go off on some tangent about me not being able to handle the truth.

We are the worst team in baseball after 10 games. 

I mentioned we are just 3-4 games behind being okay and a playoff contender, by the numbers. That's not the same as saying I think we will make the playoffs, or we are playing well enough to still have a shot. That's not even close to my position.

My position is that we have sucked. We have played worse than my expectations, but we are not out of it, yet. I'm not sure why you cant say yes or no to simple sentence, but it's been your MO all along.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think it was more about not wanting to pay then forgetting.

They made sure to find enough 1 year deals here and there to make it look like they were spending so that some dopes would be happy year to year. It was obvious that trading Mookie was an extreme shift in methodology and not for the better. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox made the playoffs last season because of pitching -- an overall good starting rotation and a lights-out backend of the bullpen.

Here's another reason: they signed -- some would still say overpaid -- a veteran leader who was so well-respected that younger players viewed him as a player/coach. 

Now? They might still have good pitching this season, because there's too much talent on the staff for them all to suck all year. But they lost their everyday leader and mentor on the diamond, in the dugout, batting cage and clubhouse.

There's no more Alex Bregman. As for fans who are so happy the front office didn't overpay for AB again, don't bother citing stats... but what exactly do you think they would say a sinking ship without a rudder is worth these days?

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They made sure to find enough 1 year deals here and there to make it look like they were spending so that some dopes would be happy year to year. It was obvious that trading Mookie was an extreme shift in methodology and not for the better. 

I agree, and I agree with Fred’s cheap thinking analysis even though the payroll itself may say something different.

[vjcsmoke]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Name one time in human history, any 2-8 team looked like they had "life" in them.

Of course they look terrible, lifeless and worse. They are 2 and 8.

I'm not trying to predict some great surge, but the fact is we are 3.5 games behind looking okay.

Cue: "But if we keep playing like this, we have no hope." Well, duh.

What I want to know is how many teams in major league history have started the regular season 2-8 and made it into the playoffs? I can't think of any but maybe there are a couple of outliers?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

What I want to know is how many teams in major league history have started the regular season 2-8 and made it into the playoffs? I can't think of any but maybe there are a couple of outliers?

I'm not sure I even know how to find the answer to this.

I do know teams have overcome 3.5 games behind many times.

Of course, the way we are playing gives us no indication we will come back, but with 152 games left, a lot can happen.

I do remember the Sox being 9 games ahead of the Rays going into September 2011, and blew it.

I think CLE came back from 15 GB, once. They had less than 152 games to do it.

[jdc69]

1 hour ago, iortiz said:

I don't think it was a good idea. It's like making a parlay of 9 lines. If you are wrong in one line, you lose.

I think it was good, but mixed with vets, and having a slow turnover. Having said that, I think everyone except the players are to blame so am not going to feel confident until that changes. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

What I want to know is how many teams in major league history have started the regular season 2-8 and made it into the playoffs? I can't think of any but maybe there are a couple of outliers?

2011 Tampa Bay Rays

Per Speier, 187 teams have gone 2-8 to start the season in the WS era. Only 12 have gone to the playoffs. 

[mvp 78]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/06/sports/red-sox-poor-season-start/

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I even know how to find the answer to this.

I do know teams have overcome 3.5 games behind many times.

Of course, the way we are playing gives us no indication we will come back, but with 152 games left, a lot can happen.

I do remember the Sox being 9 games ahead of the Rays going into September 2011, and blew it.

I think CLE came back from 15 GB, once. They had less than 152 games to do it.

Ah 3.5 your favorite number today. 3.5 in itself is not that big a number especially with  150 games left, but having to climb over every other team in the league makes it a harder situation to do.🤔

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ah 3.5 your favorite number today. 3.5 in itself is not that big a number especially with  150 games left, but having to climb over every other team in the league makes it a harder situation to do.🤔

That's less of a big deal when it's still April 7th. The problem is that overall disfunction of the Red Sox. If there was a clear plan and it was just misfiring, then you they could continue on course. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you can go the young route while filling in the gaps with several veterans. The Sox forgot about the last part. 

Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, Trevor Story, IKF, Danny Coulombe, Patrick Sandoval.

Maybe not enough.  Maybe not the right guys…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2011 Tampa Bay Rays

Per Speier, 187 teams have gone 2-8 to start the season in the WS era. Only 12 have gone to the playoffs. 

But the playoff format has expanded multiple times and very likely some of those 2-8 teams that missed under older formats might have qualified under newer ones…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's less of a big deal when it's still April 7th. The problem is that overall disfunction of the Red Sox. If there was a clear plan and it was just misfiring, then you they could continue on course. 

Disfunction it is, and if the Red Sox lose another game tonight with Cro Man on the mound, and look like a Little League team doing it JH will hear a lot more of sell the team and maybe do more than roll his eyes this time.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, Trevor Story, IKF, Danny Coulombe, Patrick Sandoval.

Maybe not enough.  Maybe not the right guys…

Story is not the right guy. He's been out of the lineup for most of his tenure. Coulombe? A $1M reliever??? Sandoval hasn't pitched 1 inning!