A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Just for fun, much conjecture, and piggy-backing on the Lindor thread, our two choices might look like:

Lindor-Assuming the NYM kick in $70M, then my estimate is that we get 18 bWAR from Lindor for $100M.  Mayer is a constant in both trades, so in this scenario, we also throw in Philips.

Neto-We get 15 bWAR for maybe $65M, but requires us throwing in Eyanson.

Assuming both are acceptable clubhouse presences, this feels fairly even.  I would do either one if these are the correct parameters.

Lindor giving 15 fWAR over the next 5 years is fine, but you’re talking about ages 33-37.  It’s very possible you only get 8-10 fWAR in those years, especially if injuries factor in.  
 

Money is not the issue, because Lindor would cost lesser prospects that could equalize the costs.

But Lindor is getting into that age range where decline can be sudden and without warning.  
 

And then there’s the question about why are the Mets trying to move him?  Cohen has a greater net worth than the bottom 10 MLB owners combined.  Is their real goal strictly financial?

[JoeBrady]

51 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Fair assessment Neto only 24. I’d lean Neto and giving up Eyanson for the upside. But I think Lindor deal is possible if nothing but for tax relief for Mets. 50m is # I project and it will take a “winning” prospect to satiate the NY media. 

I think it usually revolves around the seller's motivation.  Trading Neto is bad optics.  That's Moreno's acknowledgement that LAA is poorly run.  But the Mets can spin a Lindor trade like Cohen is spending $50-100M to buy a better future.  None of it has to be true, but it's nice to have a story for the wife press.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Big trade idea

Rs Get: Adell 1.4 yrs left, Soriano 2.4 yrs left, Neto 3.4 yrs left 

LAA Get: Arias, Mayer, Valera or Witherspoon (whomever we aren’t as bullish on) 

To get those three, you have to include Eyanson and probably Gonzales or Godbout.

[moonslav59]

Neto & Jeffers and roll the dice with the current staff?

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

But Lindor is getting into that age range where decline can be sudden and without warning.  
 

And then there’s the question about why are the Mets trying to move him?

Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps.  Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0.  Alonso was more like 3.3.  Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more.

IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs.  But there could be a money angle.  Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Big trade idea

Rs Get: Adell 1.4 yrs left, Soriano 2.4 yrs left, Neto 3.4 yrs left 

LAA Get: Arias, Mayer, Valera or Witherspoon (whomever we aren’t as bullish on) 

 

 

That looks basically like you are adding Soriano and Adell.  Adell is okay, but not worth much.  Soriano started off like Pedro, but has reverted in his last 15 games.  I'd stick with the Mayer++/Neto construct.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps.  Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0.  Alonso was more like 3.3.  Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more.

IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs.  But there could be a money angle.  Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.

Bregman is 32 and has not been over a 3.7bWAR since age 30.

Alonso is 31 and has not been over a 3.3 bWAR since age 27 (2022.)

Lindor is slightly older than Breggie and has aged much better.

6.8 bWAR at age 30.

5.8 bWAR at age 31 (2025)

It's hard to know if this season is a fluke or a sign of a sharp decline. It's a gamble for a player that turns 33 in November with 5 years to go.