A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm okay with Yoshida at DH- more okay than most, but I want to make room for Casas/Campbell/Romy. (If Duran is not traded, his slot is FT DH.)

Romy has a spot as long as the Sox have Cora managing and one left-handed hitter in the lineup.

The rest of the logjam will clear itself out as injuries happen…

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Does that make sense to you?  We're absolutely, positively not dumping Duran.  And there is absolutely, positively nothing wrong with trading your #4 outfielder.  And there is nothing wrong with trading Yoshi (I think he'll have a good year) and platooning Romy & Casas at DH (assuming health).

those are all low cost options so there is a good chance that will happen

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Catcher is still a woefully thin position group for us!  
the dodgers really want abreau from us! They have dalton and tons of pitching 

It's thin in the minors, yes, and we did add a few catchers down in the low minors.

We have 4 in the top 33 and 5 in the top 45, but Jo Garcia tops the list at #26.

I'm fine with Narvaez, Wong and emergency catcher Contreras. AAA Catcher, Jason Delay, can be added the 40 if we need a fill-in.

We have bigger needs, like 3B, SP and RP than Catcher depth, IMO.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy has a spot as long as the Sox have Cora managing and one left-handed hitter in the lineup.

The rest of the logjam will clear itself out as injuries happen…

And no more Refsnyder!!!!

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's thin in the minors, yes, and we did add a few catchers down in the low minors.

We have 4 in the top 33 and 5 in the top 45, but Jo Garcia tops the list at #26.

I'm fine with Narvaez, Wong and emergency catcher Contreras. AAA Catcher, Jason Delay, can be added the 40 if we need a fill-in.

We have bigger needs, like 3B, SP and RP than Catcher depth, IMO.

If the Sox need more offense, catcher is not a bad place to add some.  I have less faith in Narvaez than I do in Mayer or Anthony, plus catchers cannot play everyday so a good backup is essential…

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy has a spot as long as the Sox have Cora managing and one left-handed hitter in the lineup.

The rest of the logjam will clear itself out as injuries happen…

This might surprise some people: Sox leading OPS guys vs RHPs:

(Returning Players Only)

.903 Anthony

.852 Duran

.808 Abreu

.743 Story

.739 Mayer

.732 Yoshida

.723 Narvaez

.720 Rafaela (career reverse splits, too)

.718 Romy (reverse splits) Not too bad.

.658 Campbell

.618 DHam

.503 Wong

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox need more offense, catcher is not a bad place to add some.  I have less faith in Narvaez than I do in Mayer or Anthony, plus catchers cannot play everyday so a good backup is essential…

The problem is Mayer can't play 3B and 2B and Anthony can't play either one.

1st Priority: Big Bat 

2nd: 3B (maybe 2B)

3rd: #2 SP

4th: RP (LH'd?)

maybe 5th is Catcher.

Knowing this FO, we'll be lucky to add two from my top 4 list, so I'm not seeing why we reach for our 5th or 6th priority.

[notin]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd trade two Phillips for Paredes!

Okay, how about Phillips & Eyanson or Phillps & Sandlin or Mullins.

My call is Campbell for Paredes. HOU needs an OF'er.

It's not a dump. but KC's AAV is $7.5M, so maybe that can be used to add a pitcher.

Following the Isaac Paredes arbitration drama?

While the sides are only $1.2mill apart, Paredes - who doesn’t have a spot in the starting lineup right now - would push the Astros salary up to $238-239mill, dangerously close to the $244 limit they want to stay under.

They won’t want Campbell…

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The problem is Mayer can't play 3B and 2B and Anthony can't play either one.

1st Priority: Big Bat 

2nd: 3B (maybe 2B)

3rd: #2 SP

4th: RP (LH'd?)

maybe 5th is Catcher.

Knowing this FO, we'll be lucky to add two from my top 4 list, so I'm not seeing why we reach for our 5th or 6th priority.

And here’s the problem.  Do you think 1) the FO prioritizes stuff the same way fans do?  Have they ever?

Also the notion that the solutions the fans come up with are the only ones is kind of ridiculous…

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Following the Isaac Paredes arbitration drama?

While the sides are only $1.2mill apart, Paredes - who doesn’t have a spot in the starting lineup right now - would push the Astros salary up to $238-239mill, dangerously close to the $244 limit they want to stay under.

They won’t want Campbell…

They could give us their second Abreu ($5.9M.)

Add Hicks for Javier and they save $2M this year and next.

[drewski6]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Following the Isaac Paredes arbitration drama?

While the sides are only $1.2mill apart, Paredes - who doesn’t have a spot in the starting lineup right now - would push the Astros salary up to $238-239mill, dangerously close to the $244 limit they want to stay under.

They won’t want Campbell…

How much drama we talking about here? They have better options than to give us a 125 OPS+ guy for someone with reliever risk. I would not entertain this if I was Houston, and they have some flexibility with their position player mix.  They could send out Christian Walker and play Paredes or Correa at 1b, they could play Altuve in the outfield....

Tigers and/or Dbacks, I would imagine would be willing to top an offer of just Philips.

Maybe Philips and Harrison.

[drewski6]

I dont get why BTV has Paredes so low and Im not buying it.  BTV is mostly good, but on certain players for some reason, the formula seems off.  

Right now casas has like 19 trade value units and paredes has like 11. It doesnt feel right.

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont get why BTV has Paredes so low and Im not buying it.  BTV is mostly good, but on certain players for some reason, the formula seems off.  

Right now casas has like 19 trade value units and paredes has like 11. It doesnt feel right.

Most likely someone is projecting Paredes to have a low WAR or a high salary.  With Casas, it’s probably the opposite.

And it’s probably the projected salary driving both cases…

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, notin said:

And here’s the problem.  Do you think 1) the FO prioritizes stuff the same way fans do?  Have they ever?

Also the notion that the solutions the fans come up with are the only ones is kind of ridiculous…

That's why I don't get worked up about these things.  I have my preferences, as does everyone else.  But if the team adds another $25M in spending, the $25M number means a heck of a lot more than my preference.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Most likely someone is projecting Paredes to have a low WAR or a high salary.  With Casas, it’s probably the opposite.

And it’s probably the projected salary driving both cases…

I honestly have seen it get corrected by a large amount for a given player.  Ive seen it be way off. Its usually good , but I think its just off on Paredes.  I think his trade value units is about 30.

How is Duran near 50, and Paredes is like 11 with both having 2 yrs of control left around the same money. Granted Paredes may make like 9.5m this year vs durans 7.7m, so that accounts for 2 of the 36 delta between em. It just feels off.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I honestly have seen it get corrected by a large amount for a given player.  Ive seen it be way off. Its usually good , but I think its just off on Paredes.  I think his trade value units is about 30.

How is Duran near 50, and Paredes is like 11 with both having 2 yrs of control left around the same money. Granted Paredes may make like 9.5m this year vs durans 7.7m, so that accounts for 2 of the 36 delta between em. It just feels off.

Duran has a 3rd year of control that Paredes doesn't have. 

Duran last 3 years: 13.2 fWAR

Paredes last 3 years: 10.1 fWAR

[notin]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I honestly have seen it get corrected by a large amount for a given player.  Ive seen it be way off. Its usually good , but I think its just off on Paredes.  I think his trade value units is about 30.

How is Duran near 50, and Paredes is like 11 with both having 2 yrs of control left around the same money. Granted Paredes may make like 9.5m this year vs durans 7.7m, so that accounts for 2 of the 36 delta between em. It just feels off.

Well, in the last 2 seasons, Duran has been worth about 11 fWAR and Paredes closer to 6.  At $8million per fWAR, thats a $40mill difference right there.

 

The “units” BTV uses are worth about $1mill and called “surplus value”.  So basically they are saying Duran’s fWAR converted into cash is worth about $49 million more than he will be paid in that time…

[UtahSox]

Given the Red Sox’s firm stance on no-trade clauses and the organization’s clear WAR-per-dollar philosophy for players in their 30s, there is effectively no realistic path to signing Bichette, Ranger Suárez, or Framber Valdez.

All three will command player options, and player options inevitably lead to no-trade protection. That alone puts them outside the Red Sox’s current roster-construction rules, regardless of talent. This isn’t about evaluation—it’s about $$$ and policy.

With that reality in mind, here’s what I believe is the best way to build the 2026 roster using the remaining viable options:

1) Sign Eugenio Suárez to primarily play DH

• Contract: 2 years, under $40M total

• Rationale:

• Short-term commitment

• No long-term downside

• Reliable power and durability

• Strikes out A LOT… We love high K profiles. 

This is exactly the type of deal the front office is comfortable making.

2) Trade for Ketel Marte Proposed package: Kristian Campbell+ Casas+  either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early (whichever pitcher the organization is lower on) 

• Rationale:

• I fully believe Marte is still attainable

• Nothing fundamental has changed for Arizona

• If he was available two weeks ago, he’s still available now—teams don’t suddenly reverse course without a material shift, and there hasn’t been one

• This is a classic “publicly unavailable, privately movable” situation

Marte gives you positional flexibility, 5years at a great price, switch-hitting impact, and a controllable contract without violating organizational principles. AND A DAMN GOOD BASEBALL PLAYER. 

3) Trade for Freddy Peralta Proposed package: Jarren Duran + Kyson Witherspoon + Kyle Harrison

• Rationale:

• You’re converting surplus outfield value into a legitimate, 1 year Ace type starter that you must have in October.

• Peralta fits the age, contract, and performance profile the Red Sox actually pursue

• This aligns with the organization’s preference for trading for pitching rather than paying top-of-market free-agent premiums

It’s a real cost—but it fits disciplined, and defensible. And the ability to strike out in FA next year. 

Bottom Line:

• Respects the Red Sox’s no-trade clause philosophy

• Maximizes WAR per dollar

• Avoids long-term contract landmines

• Converts surplus into need without breaking internal rules

It may not be splashy—but it’s coherent, realistic, and consistent with how this front office actually operates. AND gives us a shot at moving team forward in 2026.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, in the last 2 seasons, Duran has been worth about 11 fWAR and Paredes closer to 6.  At $8million per fWAR, thats a $40mill difference right there.

 

The “units” BTV uses are worth about $1mill and called “surplus value”.  So basically they are saying Duran’s fWAR converted into cash is worth about $49 million more than he will be paid in that time…

And if the Sox are paying him 8M this season, another 4 fWAR year is 24M surplus. Duran's value seems fair. Paredes does seem a little low. I don't think we always get to know the backend of how it's calculated over there. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

And if the Sox are paying him 8M this season, another 4 fWAR year is 24M surplus. Duran's value seems fair. Paredes does seem a little low. I don't think we always get to know the backend of how it's calculated over there. 

I get the basic philosophy, but they take other factors into account.

For example, when the Sox traded Betts, his surplus value was around $60mill.  At the time, he was making $25 mill or so.  Was someone really projecting a 10.5 fWAR season? He was certainly capable, but that still borders on optimistic…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont get why BTV has Paredes so low and Im not buying it.  BTV is mostly good, but on certain players for some reason, the formula seems off.  

Right now casas has like 19 trade value units and paredes has like 11. It doesnt feel right.

It's the nail polish. Black is at a premium more than ever in these dark times. A lot of young people turning 18 are just registering as goth.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

1) Sign Eugenio Suárez to primarily play DH

 

2) Trade for Ketel Marte Proposed package: Kristian Campbell+ Casas+  either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early (whichever pitcher the organization is lower on) 

 

3) Trade for Freddy Peralta Proposed package: Jarren Duran + Kyson Witherspoon + Kyle Harrison

 

They aren't going to sign anyone to play DH, especially not for 20AAV. 

Marte is supposedly off the table.

There is no way they should do Duran, Witherspoon AND Harrison for one year of Peralta if they've already traded Tolle. Peralta also has a very high bb rate and was lucky having a 2.70 ERA but a 3.85 xFIP. His pitch mix doesn't scream Breslow to me either. This is the one deal that really doesn't make sense out of the 3.  

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I get the basic philosophy, but they take other factors into account.

For example, when the Sox traded Betts, his surplus value was around $60mill.  At the time, he was making $25 mill or so.  Was someone really projecting a 10.5 fWAR season? He was certainly capable, but that still borders on optimistic…

2018: 10.2 fWAR? 

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, in the last 2 seasons, Duran has been worth about 11 fWAR and Paredes closer to 6.  At $8million per fWAR, thats a $40mill difference right there.

 

The “units” BTV uses are worth about $1mill and called “surplus value”.  So basically they are saying Duran’s fWAR converted into cash is worth about $49 million more than he will be paid in that time…

Sticking to Paredes, a 3 WAR player making about 9m is worth more than 11 trade value units, then you have a whole second year.

2 WAR players are getting 22m QOs.

FOr his next 2 years, I would think Paredes WAR about 6.5.  Expected to be paid like 25m.  I think each WAR is worth like 10m.  I think Paredes should be about 30 himself , maybe even more (not a lot more).

I think we are all buyers of Paredes at 11 trade value units.  Its low, if you can get him for that, we definitely should.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2018: 10.2 fWAR? 

I said he was capable. But projecting a career year is optimistic, right? Seems like that’s how optimism works..

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't going to sign anyone to play DH, especially not for 20AAV. 

Marte is supposedly off the table.

There is no way they should do Duran, Witherspoon AND Harrison for one year of Peralta if they've already traded Tolle. Peralta also has a very high bb rate and was lucky having a 2.70 ERA but a 3.85 xFIP. His pitch mix doesn't scream Breslow to me either. This is the one deal that really doesn't make sense out of the 3.  

You would if you have to sign a bat, and it gives you variability at 3b and 1b as well. Plus exactly what they said they needed home run hitting. Getting him at 18m AAV and adding Marte 16m AAV. Puts you at less than what they just tried to get Bregman for. 

“Marte off table” oh well if they said it…… that’s reality. We’ve never seen subterfuge and leaked “fakenews” ever. The same reasons they were willing to move him 15 days ago, still exists. So yeah sorry I don’t buy what Hazen publicly put out there on X. 

I would 100% trade for Peralta he’s a legitimate ace. But maybe he like Ragans better? Gives you more control?
And if you signed Suarez as DH, this would make a lot of sense. Makes Yoshida your 4th Ofer. this how you improve your team if you’re not willing to spend in free agency. 

1. Anthony LF

2. Story SS

3. Marte 2b

4. E Suarez DH

5. W Abreu RF

6. W Contreras 1b

7. C Rafaela CF

8. M Mayer 3b

9. Narvaez C

Crochet, Peralta/Ragans, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford, Tolle/Early 

I don’t know I kinda like it. 

[drewski6]

44 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

You would if you have to sign a bat, and it gives you variability at 3b and 1b as well. Plus exactly what they said they needed home run hitting. Getting him at 18m AAV and adding Marte 16m AAV. Puts you at less than what they just tried to get Bregman for. 

“Marte off table” oh well if they said it…… that’s reality. We’ve never seen subterfuge and leaked “fakenews” ever. The same reasons they were willing to move him 15 days ago, still exists. So yeah sorry I don’t buy what Hazen publicly put out there on X. 

I would 100% trade for Peralta he’s a legitimate ace. But maybe he like Ragans better? Gives you more control?
And if you signed Suarez as DH, this would make a lot of sense. Makes Yoshida your 4th Ofer. this how you improve your team if you’re not willing to spend in free agency. 

1. Anthony LF

2. Story SS

3. Marte 2b

4. E Suarez DH

5. W Abreu RF

6. W Contreras 1b

7. C Rafaela CF

8. M Mayer 3b

9. Narvaez C

Crochet, Peralta/Ragans, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford, Tolle/Early 

I don’t know I kinda like it. 

I dont think Marte is available anymore, and Im note sure 20m/yr for 2 gets it done for Geno.

I do like the team though

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I said he was capable. But projecting a career year is optimistic, right? Seems like that’s how optimism works..

At that point in late 2019, how did we know that was a career year? Maybe he had a 12 fWAR season in him? 

[Larry Cook]

Arenado traded to Arizona!
is something brewing on the dessert! 

[moonslav59]

I'd offer Duran for Paredes, King & Janek. (Maybe sub Sousa for King. Maybe drop Janek.)