A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

I was hoping this would not happen for another few eeks, but it’s “wait till next year” time, once again in Sox Nation. We made a decent run and provided some exciting games to watch and some up and coming players to look forward to watching going forward.

I won’t get into speculation trades and signings, for now. That will surely come. I’m just going to provide a laydown of the foundation we have in place for 2026.

We basically have 50 players on our 40 Man Roster, since 10 are on the 60 Day IL. We cannot carry any players on the 60 over the winter, and we have a couple prospects that may be added to avoid Rule 5 selection, so some choices need to be made.

First, the 5 free agents:

Matz is a FA who might be lured back. May is a goner.

Wilson is likely a goner. We have a bunch of LH’d arms.

Refsnyder may retire or return to BOS as a platoon corner OF/DF.

Second, the options:

Bregman is the big one. He has an opt-out after ’25 and ’26. He’s owed $40M x 2.

Story has an opt out, but he will likely stay at $25M x 3.

Giolito may opt out, if he’s healthy. If he’s not, we can buy out his option for $1M.

Hendriks has a $12M mutual option with $2M buyout. We pay the $2M and say bye-bye.

Duran has an $8M club option. He’s getting $8M.

So, 5 free agents and maybe 2-3 players left from the options list. That brings the list from 50 to 42 or 43.

Third, the arbs and non-tenders:

Lowe: 4^th arb of 4 might get expensive. I’ll guess non-tender or re-sign at lower cost.

Arbs Year 2: Crawford (of 4) and Houck (of 3) and can go on 60 Day IL day 1 of 2026.

First Arbs: Casas, Romy, Wong, Bernardino, Wink, Kelly

I think we keep all but Lowe, so we’re down to 41 or 42.

Fourth, the Rule 5s:

Maybe we add 2 from: Sandlin, Mullins, Paez, Bleis, Hickey, Monegro, Song, but I’ll say one added. Back up to 42-43.

My DFA or must trade list:

1. Jose de Leon
2. Grissom
3. I Campbell
4. Hicks
5. Eaton
6. DHam

I think we can easily get down to 40 without any regret DFAs, but we may try to pull off a trade or two to get down to 40. (Yoshida is one idea. An OF’er plus another for a pitcher could be another way to gain a slot.)

So, my projected 40 man roster before any trades or signings:

SP (11): Crochet, Bello, Houck (to IL) Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle, Perales

RP (13): Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Criswell, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran, Hicks, Sandlin

C (2): Narvaez, Wong

1B (2): Casas, Campbell

2B (2): Romy, DHam or Grissom (one is traded or Grissom is DFA’d)

3B (2): Mayer, Eaton

SS (2): Story, Sogard

LF (1): Duran

CF (2): Rafaela, Jh Garcia

RF (2): Anthony, Abreu

DH(1): Yoshida

The budget is too difficult to determine with so many moving parts, like Bregman, Gio, Story and Lowe, but without Bregman, we’d have a lot of money to spend and still be below the first or second tax line (year 2.) I will present more on the budget, later.

The highest need areas seem to be:

1. A big bat (3B, 1B, 2B or maybe DH, if we trade Masa.)
2. 3B/2B (could be filled with #1, Breman or Mayer/Story)
3. Solid #2 type pitcher
4. 1B, 2B, 3B (the one not filled in #1 or #2)

Secondary upgrades possible at:

1. Back-up Catcher
2. SP depth
3. Pen depth
4. 3B depth

[moonslav59]

The budget ($AAV)

28.3 Crochet

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.3 Anthony

13.3 Chapman

10.3 Hicks

9.2 Bello

9.1 Sandoval

8.0 Duran

7.5 Campbell

6.3 Rafaela

4.7 Whitlock

4.5 Houck (est arb)

3.5 Crawford (est arb)

2.0 for Devers

1.5 Slaten (est arb)

1.5 Romy (est arb)

1.5 Bernardino (est arb)

1.5 Winckowski (est arb)

1.0 Wong (est arb)

1.0 Kelly (est arb)

4.0 Pre-Arb Players

1.7 Pre-Arb Pool

18.0 Benefits

196 Total

$48M under threshold (No Bregman $31.6 if no buyout, Lowe est about $9=11M arb)

If JH attempts to stay under the first tax line, there is not a lot to play with. I he goes $19M over, we can probably fill our major needs.

$30M big bat (3B, 1B, 2B)

$20M decent bat (2B, 1B/3B)

$15M SP via trade

 

 

 

[jad]

How about a left-handed power bat who, in an off year, hits 35 HR and 115 RBIs?

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, jad said:

How about a left-handed power bat who, in an off year, hits 35 HR and 115 RBIs?

You've certainly made your point. 😄

[notin]

2 hours ago, jad said:

How about a left-handed power bat who, in an off year, hits 35 HR and 115 RBIs?

Can he field?

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The budget ($AAV)

28.3 Crochet

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.3 Anthony

13.3 Chapman

10.3 Hicks

9.2 Bello

9.1 Sandoval

8.0 Duran

7.5 Campbell

6.3 Rafaela

4.7 Whitlock

4.5 Houck (est arb)

3.5 Crawford (est arb)

2.0 for Devers

1.5 Slaten (est arb)

1.5 Romy (est arb)

1.5 Bernardino (est arb)

1.5 Winckowski (est arb)

1.0 Wong (est arb)

1.0 Kelly (est arb)

4.0 Pre-Arb Players

1.7 Pre-Arb Pool

18.0 Benefits

196 Total

$48M under threshold (No Bregman $31.6 if no buyout, Lowe est about $9=11M arb)

If JH attempts to stay under the first tax line, there is not a lot to play with. I he goes $19M over, we can probably fill our major needs.

$30M big bat (3B, 1B, 2B)

$20M decent bat (2B, 1B/3B)

$15M SP via trade

 

 

 

sadly we probably need to get ready for more 1-2 year deals. I know this sounds negative but I see the Sox taking a small step backwards next year as there are many holes to fill..

1} outside of Anthony all our other OF are at best .250 hitters. Abreu, Rafaela, and Duran were a combined 1/26 in the NYY series.

2} We need at least 1 more high quality SP who can fill the #2 spot in the rotation. Buehler and May were awful and the Hendriks experiment failed miserably along with Fulmer. All cheap low risk signings.

3} 2B must be finally addressed without a revolving door of utility type players.

4} The C position must be strengthened. Naveraz slipped after a strong start and Wong was awful.

5} The bullpen is lacking depth after Chapman, Whitlock, and Slaten. Unless Tolle develops a solid 2nd pitch he will need to be in the BP. A FB alone doesn't play in MLB.

6} 1B is a huge question mark. Can Casas bounce back? Lowe was an ok band-aid pick-up but can he hit .280 or so in a full season? 

7} I don't really see Henry spending the $$ to keep Bregman and I'm not sure he is worth what he will get. I can easily see Mayer being his replacement and save Henry even more $$. 

8} We need another big bat likely RH given the splits we currently have and the Bregman question mark but I don't see Henry approving an expensive addition.

Other than Tolle and Early {who I really like} there are no prospects ready to make a serious impact in 2026. This team really needs Mayer to stay healthy as I think he is real good player.

I am not sure how the Sox can fix all these issues and maybe others I have missed. I would expect a few more prospects being dealt along with either Duran or Abreu to address some of these holes along with some more 1-2 yr FA signings. I know this seems negative but John Henry has given us little hope to expect anything else.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sadly we probably need to get ready for more 1-2 year deals. I know this sounds negative but I see the Sox taking a small step backwards next year as there are many holes to fill..

1} outside of Anthony all our other OF are at best .250 hitters. Abreu, Rafaela, and Duran were a combined 1/26 in the NYY series.

2} We need at least 1 more high quality SP who can fill the #2 spot in the rotation. Buehler and May were awful and the Hendriks experiment failed miserably along with Fulmer. All cheap low risk signings.

3} 2B must be finally addressed without a revolving door of utility type players.

4} The C position must be strengthened. Naveraz slipped after a strong start and Wong was awful.

5} The bullpen is lacking depth after Chapman, Whitlock, and Slaten. Unless Tolle develops a solid 2nd pitch he will need to be in the BP. A FB alone doesn't play in MLB.

6} 1B is a huge question mark. Can Casas bounce back? Lowe was an ok band-aid pick-up but can he hit .280 or so in a full season? 

7} I don't really see Henry spending the $$ to keep Bregman and I'm not sure he is worth what he will get. I can easily see Mayer being his replacement and save Henry even more $$. 

8} We need another big bat likely RH given the splits we currently have and the Bregman question mark but I don't see Henry approving an expensive addition.

Other than Tolle and Early {who I really like} there are no prospects ready to make a serious impact in 2026. This team really needs Mayer to stay healthy as I think he is real good player.

I am not sure how the Sox can fix all these issues and maybe others I have missed. I would expect a few more prospects being dealt along with either Duran or Abreu to address some of these holes along with some more 1-2 yr FA signings. I know this seems negative but John Henry has given us little hope to expect anything else.

1.  Thr OF is actually overloaded.  Judging them by 3 games is not useful.

2. The Sox might look into a SP, but also might trade 1 or 2 away.  They have 7 SPs on the 40 man roster and 4 more on the 60 day IL that will all have to be on the 40 man roster from December until March. I do think Tolle and Fitts belong in the bullpen, but I doubt it happens.

3. Get a 2b.  Trade on OF for one.

4. I’m ok with that but offense isnt a catcher’s biggest job.  I like the idea of a bad contract swap for Sean Murphy.  Not sure Atlanta does, however.

5. The Sox bullpen lead the AL in ERA, FIP, xERA and fWAR and trailed on San Diego in those categories.  I’m surprised, too.

6.  Casas, Campbell, a free agent (Hoskins?).  Lowe is gone. I’m going to throw the name Brandon Lowe out there as well.

7. I say Bregman didnt opt out.  If he does, will the Sox even try?

8. I think they add a RHH bat, but probably not one as big as many want.  With Casas and Anthony returning, the lineup won’t be the B team that played in the WC series.

As weak as the Romy/Ref/Eaton offense was in the postseason, those were the players left standing at the end.  Over 162 games, the Sox were the third highest scoring team in the AL.  Sadly, also the third highest in the AL East.  Critics say tjis was heavily influenced by blowout games.  But I didn’t know the Sox were the only team that had those…

[moonslav59]

I think it would be more than fine to have Yoshida bat 6th or 7th, Rafaela 8th and Duran 9th, but who bats 1-6?

It will be hard to trade Yoshida, but needing him to bat 4th or 5th is major red flag.

Hiding the long slumps from Rafaela are okay, due to his great CF defense, but we can't have other batters under .600 in a successful line-up.

Duran is far from a negative player, but he really should be the DH- not Yoshida, and he should not be batting 1st, 3rd or 5th, like he did often in 2025. (He hit 1st or 3rd over 600 of his 696 PAs)

Rafaela batted 2-7th for 177 PAs, which was over 1/3 of his PAs.

It seemed like Yoshida took forever to get on track. He only had 205 PAs in 2025, but the vast majority were at the 4-5-6 slots. (163 total)

When we have to slot Narvaez and Wong somewhere in the line-up, it becomes clear that we need to move on from one of Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela. Since Duran and Yoshida are both best suited for DH, and Yoshida is virtually untradeable, I think it has to be Duran. 

I know that sounds counterintuitive, as a major issue is offense, and Duran is far from our weakest link on offense. If we could dump half od Yoshida's contract to keep Duran, sign me up, but that seems highly unlikely. Our bottom 3 batters should then be 7 Masa, 8 Narvaez, 9 Rafaela. The 1-6 batters need to be better than these three, and I mean clearly better.

The first positions that come to mind are 2B, 1B and 3B, if Bregman bolts. Counting on Mayer and Casas seems too risky, but don't be surprised if Brez counts on one or both, with no true fall back plan B that bats better than Yoshida at #7.

I'm figuring we simply have to trust Anthony, Story and Abreu to fill 3 of the 6 slots on a FT basis. (Yes, Abreu moves away from platooning.) I'd be okay with Duran as the 6/7th hitter (flipping with Masa vs L/R,) and LF defense is not a major issue in Fenway, but with Jh Garcia and Campbell as OF options and Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu firmly entrenched as OF'ers I still think he should be traded for pitching or to fill the needs at 2B, 1B and 3B. (Ideally Duran DHs, but we aren't trading Yoshida.)

So, we likely will count on Mayer (not Casas.) He can play 3B or 2B. The best idea might be to choose this winter to move Story to 2B or 3B and play Mayer at SS. Perhaps Arias will someday move Mayer off the SS position, but that is at least 1-2 years away, if ever.

Since Mayer and Story can fill 2 of the 3 non 1B infield positions, it give Brez some flexibility on what position to add: 2B or 3B, or even SS. Suarez could give us a good bat and a 3Bman, but not a good defensive one, so we'd be back to the Devers situation, thinking he should be moved to 1B or DH. He's getting old, so a shorter deal might be attractive to JH, but I'm not sure he really "solves" the 3B hole, assuming Breggie bolts. Ideally, he'd be signed to play 1B but offer a plan B at 3B, if (and when?) Mayer gets hurt. Casas could provide the depth at 1B we have sorely needed. I think Suarez makes sense. I'd prefer Alonso or Schwarber for 1B, but neither provides depth at 3B for Mayer/Story. Any of the three would be a great add. We won't be adding 2 of those three.

That leaves the decade long 2B problem. Our 2B slot has been historically bad, but it also offers us an opportunity to make a major gain with just one addition. Since we'd still need more offense after adding one of the big three bats listed above- I know huge assumption- I look at K Marte as an obvious trade target. I know he brings baggage, but adding K Marte and Suarez would fix our offense, even without Bregman. There would still be questions and concerns, but we'd have a stronger line-up and better fe]flexibility and depth than we have now.

I'm not dissing our depth. IMO, our depth got us to the playoffs in 2025, but adding 2 major additions while losing 1 (Bregman) could be all it takes to right the ship. We'd still need to replace Gio, and I think a trade makes the most sense, but our line-up and depth could look like this:

1. Anthony LF (depth: Jh Garcia/Campbell)

2. Marte 2B (Mayer, Romy, Sogard/DHam)

3. Story 3B/SS (Suarez at 3B, Mayer at SS, Sogard)

4. Suarez 1B (Casas, Campbell)

5. Abreu RF (Jh Garcia or Anthony to RF)

6. Yoshida DH (Suarez/Casas/Romy)

7. Mayer SS/3B (Story, Sogard)

8. Narvaez C (Wong)

9. Rafaela CF (Jh Garcia, Anthony)

The next big need would be a solid SP. Although we have decent and young depth, we need a proven #2 type SP'er. We can't trade Duran for Marte and a SP'er, so we need to sign a 2Bman (Torres?) or SP, or trade some young pitchers for Marte or someone like Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez or Luis Castillo... some of them are not cheap.

 

 

 

[alsoason]

4 hours ago, jad said:

How about a left-handed power bat who, in an off year, hits 35 HR and 115 RBIs?

The guy from the Phillies needs to return as the DH, if Alonso opts out, bring him in too to play 1B. sign the Lefty  SP from Houston,  Torres maybe to play 2B, Next winter the Sox have to be all in when Skubel goes Free Agent, Him, Croch, and Valdez. Spent the $$$$$$ Henry.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, alsoason said:

The guy from the Phillies needs to return as the DH, if Alonso opts out, bring him in too to play 1B. sign the Lefty  SP from Houston,  Torres maybe to play 2B, Next winter the Sox have to be all in when Skubel goes Free Agent, Him, Croch, and Valdez. Spent the $$$$$$ Henry.

With all due respect, we won't even do half of this.

One from Alonso or Schwarber would be near a miracle: both a dream.

Valdez is old and has issues.

Torres makes sense.

If we spend real big, this winter, you can forget about  Skubal for 2027.

IMO, our roster and farm are deep. We need to choose the right guys to trade, and get it right- like the Crochet and Narvaez deals. Then, we need to be selective on who we sign. We can't sign another Buehler type.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

1.  Thr OF is actually overloaded.  Judging them by 3 games is not useful.

2. The Sox might look into a SP, but also might trade 1 or 2 away.  They have 7 SPs on the 40 man roster and 4 more on the 60 day IL that will all have to be on the 40 man roster from December until March. I do think Tolle and Fitts belong in the bullpen, but I doubt it happens.

3. Get a 2b.  Trade on OF for one.

4. I’m ok with that but offense isnt a catcher’s biggest job.  I like the idea of a bad contract swap for Sean Murphy.  Not sure Atlanta does, however.

5. The Sox bullpen lead the AL in ERA, FIP, xERA and fWAR and trailed on San Diego in those categories.  I’m surprised, too.

6.  Casas, Campbell, a free agent (Hoskins?).  Lowe is gone. I’m going to throw the name Brandon Lowe out there as well.

7. I say Bregman didnt opt out.  If he does, will the Sox even try?

8. I think they add a RHH bat, but probably not one as big as many want.  With Casas and Anthony returning, the lineup won’t be the B team that played in the WC series.

As weak as the Romy/Ref/Eaton offense was in the postseason, those were the players left standing at the end.  Over 162 games, the Sox were the third highest scoring team in the AL.  Sadly, also the third highest in the AL East.  Critics say tjis was heavily influenced by blowout games.  But I didn’t know the Sox were the only team that had those…

Abreu  .247   Duran .256   Rafaela  .249   regular season stats.  hardly a small sample. Then the post season fiasco. I stand by my position.

[notin]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Abreu  .247   Duran .256   Rafaela  .249   regular season stats.  hardly a small sample. Then the post season fiasco. I stand by my position.

BA is but one offensive metric, and not much of one. 
OPS+ for them is Duran 114, Abreu 116 and Rafaela 95.  Only Rafaela is below average, and he was never brought up to hit.

With Anthony returning, I expect one of Abreu or Duran to be dealt…

 

[moonslav59]

Our best hope is that Anthony is the real deal and gets 650+ PAs. He would be one of the big bats needed to boost us above the 2025 team offense. Since he had 300 PAs, this year, he'd technically be just 1/2 an addition, but since he was gone at the end, I'd count him as a full addition.

If Bregman bolts, with his missed time, we can maybe call teh Anthony plus and Bregman loss as a near push. If we trade Duran or Abreu, we'd need even more added on O than we already think we need. Trading Rafaela and not Duran or Abreu would help the offense, but at what cost to the D. Plus, we'd be back to an all LHB OF.

We certainly can't count on Mayer to be a big plus on offense. He might be, but just counting on him to play defense for 145+ games might be asking too much.

Casas could be another big add to the offense, from within the system, but like Mayer, his health will always be a big worry.

Jh Garcia (RHB OF) or Campbell (RHB LF, 1B, DH) are also possibilities, but how can we reasonably count on enough of all these guys to stay healthy and produce on offense? They seem more like perfect plus depth pieces than reliable and proven  FT players.

Maybe we roll the dice with all our young pitchers and returning from injury SP'ers and not add anyone to replace Gio and Buehler.  Those two combined for 48 GS and 257 IP. Add the loss of 19 GS and 112 IP from Houck, Newcomb and May, plus another 6 GS from openers, we are looking at over 70 GS needed to be filled by more starts from...

Crawford 0

Dobbins 11

Fitts 10

Early 3

Tolle 3

Harrison 2

Criswell 1

Perales 0

Bello 28 (+3-5?)

It's pretty risky counting on these guys to do well enough to carry us to a ring. Making up for Houck, Beuhler and Newcomb's starts could be easy but not Gio's. Also, can we count on Bello to do as well as 2025? I think we have to count on Crochet to be as good to have any chance, but we need a solid #2, IMO.

Hopefully, we can do this AND add two solid bats to the line-up (at least one, if Bregman returns.)

[moonslav59]

Could this be a workable plan?

Trade Hicks, Paez and Wong for Sean Murphy to play 1B & C. (The AAV is about equal.)

Trade Duran, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan.

Trade Campbell, Tolle, Sandlin and DHam for K Marte.

Sign E Suarez to play 1B and be Mayer/Story's back up for 3B, assuming Bregman bolts.

If we can trade Yoshida, do it.

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early/Dobbins/Fitts/Harrison/Perales

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell, Murphy, Kelly/Moran/Guerrero

C: Narvaez, Murphy

1B: Suarez, Murphy/Casas/Romy

2B: Marte, Romy, Sogard

SS: Mayer/Story, Sogard

3B: Mayer/Story, Suarez

LF: Anthony, Jh garcia/Yoshida

CF: Rafaela, Jh Garcia

RF: Abreu, Jh Garcia

DH: Murphy/Yoshida/Romy

 

 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, alsoason said:

The guy from the Phillies needs to return as the DH, if Alonso opts out, bring him in too to play 1B. sign the Lefty  SP from Houston,  Torres maybe to play 2B, Next winter the Sox have to be all in when Skubel goes Free Agent, Him, Croch, and Valdez. Spent the $$$$$$ Henry.

In a dream world, we find someone to take Masa off our hands. Trade Casas for something, then sign Alonso to play 1st and Schwarber to play DH. 

Suddenly our line up looks deadly, especially if Bregman stays. 

But, that's in a dream world. 

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Hitch said:

In a dream world, we find someone to take Masa off our hands. Trade Casas for something, then sign Alonso to play 1st and Schwarber to play DH. 

Suddenly our line up looks deadly, especially if Bregman stays. 

But, that's in a dream world. 

Very much a dream world.

The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter.  And maybe a #5.

The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked.

If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH.  
 

They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. 
 

I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19.  
 

1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals.

 

Will there be much else?

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Very much a dream world.

The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter.  And maybe a #5.

The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked.

If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH.  
 

They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. 
 

I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19.  
 

1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals.

 

Will there be much else?

 

The '25 Sox overachieved to make the PO's in the weak AL. The Sox BP overachieved the most.

When a team overachieves, that usually means there's many holes to correct.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The '25 Sox overachieved to make the PO's in the weak AL. 

Why is the AL so weak?  Was it due to their losing record in inter league games (14 games under .500)?

This is a myth spread by folks who don’t watch NL games.  If the NL is so superior, please explain why THE REDS made the playoffs…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Why is the AL so weak?  Was it due to their losing record in inter league games (14 games under .500)?

This is a myth spread by folks who don’t watch NL games.  If the NL is so superior, please explain why THE REDS made the playoffs…

I didn't say the NL was superior.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Very much a dream world.

The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter.  And maybe a #5.

The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked.

If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH.  
 

They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. 
 

I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19.  
 

1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals.

 

Will there be much else?

 

Weren't you the one who said we should trade for a catcher? (Murphy or Rushing)

IMO, we should try to pool our financial and trade capital to add the best 3, maybe 4 players we can afford. I'd suggest....

Not in any order

1. 3B: Bregman, Suarez or Mayer/Story?

2. 2B: K Marte, B Lowe, Torres or Mayer/Story?

3. 1B: Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Casas/Campbell/Romy?

4. #2SP: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly or Giolito/Keller?

I think I trust Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS more than Casas/Campbell/Romy at 1B, so if we have to choose one to skip, it would be 2B or 3B. That makes it this if it's 3 not 4:

SP

1B

2B or 3B

[oldtimer]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was hoping this would not happen for another few eeks, but it’s “wait till next year” time, once again in Sox Nation. We made a decent run and provided some exciting games to watch and some up and coming players to look forward to watching going forward.

I won’t get into speculation trades and signings, for now. That will surely come. I’m just going to provide a laydown of the foundation we have in place for 2026.

We basically have 50 players on our 40 Man Roster, since 10 are on the 60 Day IL. We cannot carry any players on the 60 over the winter, and we have a couple prospects that may be added to avoid Rule 5 selection, so some choices need to be made.

First, the 5 free agents:

Matz is a FA who might be lured back. May is a goner.

Wilson is likely a goner. We have a bunch of LH’d arms.

Refsnyder may retire or return to BOS as a platoon corner OF/DF.

Second, the options:

Bregman is the big one. He has an opt-out after ’25 and ’26. He’s owed $40M x 2.

Story has an opt out, but he will likely stay at $25M x 3.

Giolito may opt out, if he’s healthy. If he’s not, we can buy out his option for $1M.

Hendriks has a $12M mutual option with $2M buyout. We pay the $2M and say bye-bye.

Duran has an $8M club option. He’s getting $8M.

So, 5 free agents and maybe 2-3 players left from the options list. That brings the list from 50 to 42 or 43.

Third, the arbs and non-tenders:

Lowe: 4^th arb of 4 might get expensive. I’ll guess non-tender or re-sign at lower cost.

Arbs Year 2: Crawford (of 4) and Houck (of 3) and can go on 60 Day IL day 1 of 2026.

First Arbs: Casas, Romy, Wong, Bernardino, Wink, Kelly

I think we keep all but Lowe, so we’re down to 41 or 42.

Fourth, the Rule 5s:

Maybe we add 2 from: Sandlin, Mullins, Paez, Bleis, Hickey, Monegro, Song, but I’ll say one added. Back up to 42-43.

My DFA or must trade list:

1. Jose de Leon
2. Grissom
3. I Campbell
4. Hicks
5. Eaton
6. DHam

I think we can easily get down to 40 without any regret DFAs, but we may try to pull off a trade or two to get down to 40. (Yoshida is one idea. An OF’er plus another for a pitcher could be another way to gain a slot.)

So, my projected 40 man roster before any trades or signings:

SP (11): Crochet, Bello, Houck (to IL) Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Early, Harrison, Fitts, Tolle, Perales

RP (13): Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Criswell, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran, Hicks, Sandlin

C (2): Narvaez, Wong

1B (2): Casas, Campbell

2B (2): Romy, DHam or Grissom (one is traded or Grissom is DFA’d)

3B (2): Mayer, Eaton

SS (2): Story, Sogard

LF (1): Duran

CF (2): Rafaela, Jh Garcia

RF (2): Anthony, Abreu

DH(1): Yoshida

The budget is too difficult to determine with so many moving parts, like Bregman, Gio, Story and Lowe, but without Bregman, we’d have a lot of money to spend and still be below the first or second tax line (year 2.) I will present more on the budget, later.

The highest need areas seem to be:

1. A big bat (3B, 1B, 2B or maybe DH, if we trade Masa.)
2. 3B/2B (could be filled with #1, Breman or Mayer/Story)
3. Solid #2 type pitcher
4. 1B, 2B, 3B (the one not filled in #1 or #2)

Secondary upgrades possible at:

1. Back-up Catcher
2. SP depth
3. Pen depth
4. 3B depth

As you say, it's too early to make definitive statements but I appreciate the level of thinking shown. A lot will hinge on Bregtman's decision. If he leaves, we may need two big bats along with Anthony. Making room for them at 1st, DH and/or 3rd suggests moving our current players who fill those slots. I will be looking at possible trade candidates or free agents who might fill our needs. I agree, Henry is not like to be extravagant. Suggesstions should take reality into account. Yes, we also need a Backup catcher improvement, SP depth, and pen depth but so do many  other teams. Brez will face a competitive market

[moonslav59]

IMO, FA SP'ers are too costly and long term and risky. We've had good luck trading for SP'ers, so maybe that has biased me. We should trade for a SP.

Use the finances and maybe a second big trade for 2-3 big bats (1-2, if Bregman stays.)

[notin]

38 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I didn't say the NL was superior.

You honestly didn't say anything at all…

[notin]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Weren't you the one who said we should trade for a catcher? (Murphy or Rushing)

IMO, we should try to pool our financial and trade capital to add the best 3, maybe 4 players we can afford. I'd suggest....

Not in any order

1. 3B: Bregman, Suarez or Mayer/Story?

2. 2B: K Marte, B Lowe, Torres or Mayer/Story?

3. 1B: Alonso, Schwarber, Suarez or Casas/Campbell/Romy?

4. #2SP: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly or Giolito/Keller?

I think I trust Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS more than Casas/Campbell/Romy at 1B, so if we have to choose one to skip, it would be 2B or 3B. That makes it this if it's 3 not 4:

SP

1B

2B or 3B

I suggested Murphy, but that was more about better use of Hick’s salary.

I predicted Rushing because he’s been a rumored target before and is clearly blocked in LA, abd could certainly represent an upgrade over Narvaez.

But do the Sox NEED a catcher? No.  They NEED someone to replace Bregman.  They NEED 1b/DH upgrades.  They can win either Narvaez.

One might argue they need to upgrade over Wong.  I’m ok with Wong, who was far from a relevant weakness.   There is a potential upgrade at BUC, but it’s not a huge need.  In some ways, Wong has made a case for himself..

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

You honestly didn't say anything at all…

That's your opinion, dipstick.

Edited October 5, 2025 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With all due respect, we won't even do half of this.

One from Alonso or Schwarber would be near a miracle: both a dream.

Valdez is old and has issues.

Torres makes sense.

If we spend real big, this winter, you can forget about  Skubal for 2027.

IMO, our roster and farm are deep. We need to choose the right guys to trade, and get it right- like the Crochet and Narvaez deals. Then, we need to be selective on who we sign. We can't sign another Buehler type.

agree on the constant gamble on rehab projest like Buehler and Hendricks, i don't know what the number is/were/are but i wouldn't doubt that they could have signed a decent pitcher for all the $$$ they spent on injured players they hoped to rehab.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Here's a realistic look at the 2026 season. I seriously doubt the Sox BP will be as good next season as it was this season.

Hopefully, it will be, but the odds are against it. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

agree on the constant gamble on rehab projest like Buehler and Hendricks, i don't know what the number is/were/are but i wouldn't doubt that they could have signed a decent pitcher for all the $$$ they spent on injured players they hoped to rehab.

They think they are saving money, and I guess they did pay less than $20-30M a year for a long term deal, but they've spent...

$11M Perez (2 yrs)

$10M Richards (1)

$10M Paxton (1)

$10M Kluber (1)

$12M Wacha (1) + Hill (1)

$21M Buehler (1)

That's about $75M on SP'ers, with almost all of them failing to some extent. Wacha and Hill did okay, but missed some time to injury.

$10M Hendriks (1 as RP) and $8M/2 for Diekman, who we unloaded early on.

Jansen, Martin & Chapman worked out fine.

 

[mvp 78]

79-83 

Wait until ‘27.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

79-83 

Wait until ‘27.

Is that you, Fred?