A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy...

Easy come, easy go…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Masa has value if the Sox are willing to eat a good portion of his contract TBH. Only 2 seasons left. If the Sox pay half of his deal, you can probably find a taker and get a prospect. Or you just trade for someone else's bad contract. Or you just DFA the guy and clear the roster spot! 

Or demote him to Worcester.

If the Sox do get a 1b, Yoshida might start the season as the DH in the likely event Casas is not yet ready…

[Hugh2]

Yeah, I went with the paid version for 1 year then figured I just don't care that much anymore. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Easy come, easy go…

This won't break my heart don't you know

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I stopped looking at BTV once they charged $. 

Me, too.

On Masa, how much do we have to pay to trade him for no return?

He's owed $37.2M/2 (AAV $18M x 2.)

My guess is we'd have to pay $26-29M. Basically, we'd save about $4-6M on a deal like this.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe the best example of this was the Crochet trade -- when Brez supposedly caved and agreed to include Teel to complete the deal (according to either an authentic reporter or an authentic fraud I read somewhere online).

We won't know why Chicago insisted on Teel, especially when they already had a top-ranked catching prospect -- but obviously they preferred another catcher to another shortstop like Mayer...

... which looks justified, since their own top rookie SS was so good he matched Roman Anthony in WAR in the same amount of games this year, and also outhomered him, 21-8.

Maybe they wanted Mayer and we settled on Teel.

I hope we make another Crochet type deal, this winter.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe they wanted Mayer and we settled on Teel.

I hope we make another Crochet type deal, this winter.

That to me is the way to go. I don’t know what’s out there somewhat comparable to Crochet in age, and stuff, but I’d rather have someone like that than someone from the over 30 gang, even if you have to give up some more prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"We'reopentoanywaytoimproveourballclub:freeagency,trade,internally..."

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too.

On Masa, how much do we have to pay to trade him for no return?

He's owed $37.2M/2 (AAV $18M x 2.)

My guess is we'd have to pay $26-29M. Basically, we'd save about $4-6M on a deal like this.

The 19 mil/yr guy had a very good September. The 40 mil/yr guy sucked in September.

I say keep the former and hope the latter opts out.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That to me is the way to go. I don’t know what’s out there somewhat comparable to Crochet in age, and stuff, but I’d rather have someone like that than someone from the over 30 gang, even if you have to give up some more prospects.

Skenes is still pre-arb, so it's likely impossible to get him, but maybe someone can be wow'd enough.

I don't see Alcantara as "the one," but a couple years ago many felt he was going to be great.

Joe Ryan is 29, but that's too close to 30. He won't take as much to get, so maybe he's the best we can realistically hope for.

Maybe this time, we trade for a younger everyday player?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The 19 mil/yr guy had a very good September. The 40 mil/yr guy sucked in September.

I say keep the former and hope the latter opts out.

I'm glad our GM doesn't use the recent one month sample size to decide.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad our GM doesn't use the recent one month sample size to decide.

Unfortunately, it's not the GM's decision regarding the disappointing Bregman. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Unfortunately, it's not the GM's decision regarding the disappointing Bregman. 

Btw, BREG also sucked longer than just September. I was being kind.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad our GM doesn't use the recent one month sample size to decide.

Didn’t the $40M/yr guy just go back to where he should be. 273 hitter, which is his career average, which he hadn’t seen since 2019. Last year he got off to a bad start, and this year he got off to a good start batting behind Raffy that everyone went ga ga over.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Unfortunately, it's not the GM's decision regarding the disappointing Bregman. 

He can offer enough to help him decide to stay.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Didn’t the $40M/yr guy just go back to where he should be. 273 hitter, which is his career average, which he hadn’t seen since 2019. Last year he got off to a bad start, and this year he got off to a good start batting behind Raffy that everyone went ga ga over.

I'm fine with Bregman walking.

My point was about JH spending the "money saved" from Devers AND Bregman.... or not. (Or half, or 2/3...)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He can offer enough to help him decide to stay.

Why would Brez do something stupid like that?

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with Bregman walking.

My point was about JH spending the "money saved" from Devers AND Bregman.... or not. (Or half, or 2/3...)

He’s still paying Hicks for two more years, so all of Raffy’s contract isn’t being saved. I don’t know what’s out there for a 3B if Bregman leaves, so hopefully some money would get spent there. I wouldn’t put either Mayer, or Story at 3B. I would like to see Mayer at SS, and Story at 2B to start with no matter what, and hope they somewhat can stay healthy.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Why would Brez do something stupid like that?

Like I said, I'm fine if Bregman walks, but lets not pretend Brez can't do something to keep him here.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Old Red said:

He’s still paying Hicks for two more years, so all of Raffy’s contract isn’t being saved. I don’t know what’s out there for a 3B if Bregman leaves, so hopefully some money would get spent there. I wouldn’t put either Mayer, or Story at 3B. I would like to see Mayer at SS, and Story at 2B to start with no matter what, and hope they somewhat can stay healthy.

$30M x 8 vs $12M x 2. There is still a huge chunk of change unspent.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

He’s still paying Hicks for two more years, so all of Raffy’s contract isn’t being saved. I don’t know what’s out there for a 3B if Bregman leaves, so hopefully some money would get spent there. I wouldn’t put either Mayer, or Story at 3B. I would like to see Mayer at SS, and Story at 2B to start with no matter what, and hope they somewhat can stay healthy.

The 3b free agent market is weak after Eugenio Suarez, who is 35 but doubly ineligible for a QO.  The 2b free agent market is equally unimpressive.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they used Story at SS and Mayer at 3b again..

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

$30M x 8 vs $12M x 2. There is still a huge chunk of change unspent.

Once money gets put back in JH pocket I think it’s hard for him to take it back out.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Once money gets put back in JH pocket I think it’s hard for him to take it back out.

That's what I'm afraid of. I would not be shocked if all we do is go back to signing a $10M/1 pitcher, a $3M RP'er and waiting to scour the waiver wire for another summer's 1Bman claim.

Run back 2B with DHam, Romy and Sogard.

God, I hope not, but again, my expectations on JH are nil.

I do have expectations for Brez & Co, but JH's wallet has something to do with that, too.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe they wanted Mayer and we settled on Teel.

I hope we make another Crochet type deal, this winter.

Not holding my breath on that one…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's what I'm afraid of. I would not be shocked if all we do is go back to signing a $10M/1 pitcher, a $3M RP'er and waiting to scour the waiver wire for another summer's 1Bman claim.

Run back 2B with DHam, Romy and Sogard.

God, I hope not, but again, my expectations on JH are nil.

I do have expectations for Brez & Co, but JH's wallet has something to do with that, too.

Kennedy said the Sox would spend the money.  Yacht crews aren’t cheap, you know…

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Skenes is still pre-arb, so it's likely impossible to get him, but maybe someone can be wow'd enough.

I don't see Alcantara as "the one," but a couple years ago many felt he was going to be great.

Joe Ryan is 29, but that's too close to 30. He won't take as much to get, so maybe he's the best we can realistically hope for.

Maybe this time, we trade for a younger everyday player?

Alcantara is owed $21mill for 2026 with a club option for 2027 set at $25mill ($2mill buyout).  

[moonslav59]

I'm not suggesting we can just get any team to trade us their best young pitching, but here is a list of the top fWAR pitchers under 29:

10.8 Skenes

10.4 Crochet

7.9 Yamamoto

7.7 Hunter Brown

6.9 Cole Ragans

6.6 Georger Kirby

6.5 M Gore

6.1 Luzardo, 6.0 Skubal, 5.8 Woo

5.2 Bibee, 5.1 Schwellen., 4.9 Abbott, Soriano & Lodolo

4.8 Pfaadt, 4.7 C Sanchez, 4.4 L Webb, 4.3 T Rogers

4.0 Bello & L Gilbert, 3.9 Pepiot & Olsen

3.7 R Nelson, 3.3 Bubic & T Bradley, 3.1 Parker & Wood Rich. 3.0 S Baz

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Not holding my breath on that one…

More likely, we make one or two somewhat significant trades.

Duran, _____ & _____ for Ryan

Campbell, _____ & ______ for K Marte

One or two mid level signings.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Alcantara is owed $21mill for 2026 with a club option for 2027 set at $25mill ($2mill buyout).  

Wow. I knew it got more expensive near the end, but didn't know the end was now.

I'd bring up Masa, but I doubt we can even give them Hicks.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow. I knew it got more expensive near the end, but didn't know the end was now.

I'd bring up Masa, but I doubt we can even give them Hicks.

Even with the balloon payment,  the horribly flawed BTV gives him a surplus value of $10mill.  So no salary dumping allowed. 
 

At that value, a slew of Sox players and prospects are acceptable, including Early, Perales, Romero, Cespedes, Valera, and several more.  
 

Id hope the Sox hold on to Early and Perales,  Beyond that I am ambivalent…