A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Even with the balloon payment,  the horribly flawed BTV gives him a surplus value of $10mill.  So no salary dumping allowed. 
 

At that value, a slew of Sox players and prospects are acceptable, including Early, Perales, Romero, Cespedes, Valera, and several more.  
 

Id hope the Sox hold on to Early and Perales,  Beyond that I am ambivalent…

The idea is to give them about $10M of value which includes subtracting the Hicks underwater value, and yes, no Early.

How does BTV view Harrison, Hicks, Cespedes and Bleis?

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The idea is to give them about $10M of value which includes subtracting the Hicks underwater value, and yes, no Early.

How does BTV view Harrison, Hicks, Cespedes and Bleis?

I am 99% sure they have no desire to take back Hicks’ salary, even if you up the players…

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

I am 99% sure they have no desire to take back Hicks’ salary, even if you up the players…

Yup.

[moonslav59]

Is this an unreasonable plan?

Sign Hoskins and G Torres

Trade Duran, Clarke& Sandlin for Joe Ryan.

Next question: is this enough to make us better? (Minus Gio, Bregman, Wilson and some low performers like Buehler.)

Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford/Dobbins/Early/Harrison/Fitts/Perales

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Tolle, Bernardino, Criswell, Hicks/Moran/Wink/Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero

1. Anthony LF

2. Torres 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Story SS/3B

5. Yoshida/Romy DH

6. Hoskins 1B

7. Mayer 3B/SS

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, JH Garcia, DHam/Campbell

 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is this an unreasonable plan?

Sign Hoskins and G Torres

Trade Duran, Clarke& Sandlin for Joe Ryan.

Next question: is this enough to make us better?

 

Sure, they are better. How much? 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, they are better. How much? 

I'd say not by enough to make a big difference.

No matter how big we go, we will likely be depending on several players returning from the EOY IL list. How well they rehab and get back into a groove could mean  everything.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR projects the Sox arb amounts:

• Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM (I think we do not offer him an arb.)
• Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $100K buyout)
• Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM (Will miss the 2026 season.)
• Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
• Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
• Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
• Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
• Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
• Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K

No Lowe and the arb cost will be about $22M

[moonslav59]

Sox Injury Update per MLB.com:

Narvaez: will have knee surgery to repair his meniscus, but "should be fine for ST'ing."

Anthony oblique & Mayer: Right wrist. "Might have made it back" had the Sox advanced in the playoffs.

Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear. Had surgery July 2nd. "Expected to have normal offseason and be ready for the start ST'ing."

Dobbins: Right ACL tear. Had surgery to repair ACL on AUG 13th. Injured on July 11th. "Expected return: 2026." Another site says ready for start if ST'ing.

Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon in left knee. Has progressed "on schedule." He "expects to be ready for ST'ing."

Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament in right elbow: had TJS. Expected to return very "late '26 or (early) '27"

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Injury Update per MLB.com:

Narvaez: will have knee surgery to repair his meniscus, but "should be fine for ST'ing."

Anthony oblique & Mayer: Right wrist. "Might have made it back" had the Sox advanced in the playoffs.

Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear. Had surgery July 2nd. "Expected to have normal offseason and be ready for the start ST'ing."

Dobbins: Right ACL tear. Had surgery to repair ACL on AUG 13th. Injured on July 11th. "Expected return: 2026." Another site says ready for start if ST'ing.

Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon in left knee. Has progressed "on schedule." He "expects to be ready for ST'ing."

Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament in right elbow: had TJS. Expected to return very "late '26 or (early) '27"

It's crazy how much more solid and exciting our lineup would be if we knew we could pencil in Mayer to player 150 games at 2nd/SS. Let's hope this wrist thing is in the past now.

I'm excited to see what Dobbins and Crawford can do next year. Casas is a write off for me. See if you can send him and Hicks together (instead of Duran as you suggested in the other thread) for nothing and clear the money. 

I originally entertained the idea they'd just non-tender Houck. But I don't think they'll do that now. They love an injury project. 

Narvaez is the big one. We need him coming through that injury clean and healthy and ready to go. Notin's idea to trade for Murphy feels more and more pressing by the day.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

It's crazy how much more solid and exciting our lineup would be if we knew we could pencil in Mayer to player 150 games at 2nd/SS. Let's hope this wrist thing is in the past now.

I'm excited to see what Dobbins and Crawford can do next year. Casas is a write off for me. See if you can send him and Hicks together (instead of Duran as you suggested in the other thread) for nothing and clear the money. 

I originally entertained the idea they'd just non-tender Houck. But I don't think they'll do that now. They love an injury project. 

Narvaez is the big one. We need him coming through that injury clean and healthy and ready to go. Notin's idea to trade for Murphy feels more and more pressing by the day.

I'd love adding another catcher, especially one who hits well enough to DH or play a decent 1B, when not catching, but I think JH will have a limit on spending, and we just used a lot of prospect capital to get Crochet, so I'm not sure Brez has another one in the works.

We have a lot of young talent log-jammed in the OF and promising pitching depth. As long as we trade for a solid #2 SP'er and or a big bat that plays 3B, 2B or 1B, I'd be okay with trading from strength. Making a big trade then takes the winter spending budget and divides it by 2 not 3, or 3 not 4, thereby allowing us to add higher quality players (in theory.)

If we have $45M to spend, dividing by 2 is way better than by 3 or 4.

I'd rather get  one $28M and one $17M player than three at $15M or four at $11M. To me, a big trade is essential but maybe not probable.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Injury Update per MLB.com:

Narvaez: will have knee surgery to repair his meniscus, but "should be fine for ST'ing."

Anthony oblique & Mayer: Right wrist. "Might have made it back" had the Sox advanced in the playoffs.

Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear. Had surgery July 2nd. "Expected to have normal offseason and be ready for the start ST'ing."

Dobbins: Right ACL tear. Had surgery to repair ACL on AUG 13th. Injured on July 11th. "Expected return: 2026." Another site says ready for start if ST'ing.

Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon in left knee. Has progressed "on schedule." He "expects to be ready for ST'ing."

Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament in right elbow: had TJS. Expected to return very "late '26 or (early) '27"

Save those "expected for ST" takes for when Jan/Feb rolls around and those guys are still hobbling around. 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

It's crazy how much more solid and exciting our lineup would be if we knew we could pencil in Mayer to player 150 games at 2nd/SS.

Would need a 300 game schedule for that to happen. 🤕

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Save those "expected for ST" takes for when Jan/Feb rolls around and those guys are still hobbling around. 

Sox players hardly ever get back when "expected."

I do expect Anthony, Mayer & Narvaez to be over their current injuries by game 1 of ST'ing. Crawford is a close call. Dobbins & Casas are question marks.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox players hardly ever get back when "expected."

I do expect Anthony, Mayer & Narvaez to be over their current injuries by game 1 of ST'ing. Crawford is a close call. Dobbins & Casas are question marks.

Agree about Anthony/Mayer/Narvaez.

[Maxbialystock]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is this an unreasonable plan?

Sign Hoskins and G Torres

Trade Duran, Clarke& Sandlin for Joe Ryan.

Next question: is this enough to make us better? (Minus Gio, Bregman, Wilson and some low performers like Buehler.)

Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford/Dobbins/Early/Harrison/Fitts/Perales

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Tolle, Bernardino, Criswell, Hicks/Moran/Wink/Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero

1. Anthony LF

2. Torres 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Story SS/3B

5. Yoshida/Romy DH

6. Hoskins 1B

7. Mayer 3B/SS

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, JH Garcia, DHam/Campbell

 

Not much hitting.  In fact, just one good hitter, Anthony.  He could be a .900 OPs hitter.  The rest are lucky if they get .800 OPS.  Virtually no real HR power.   

Pitching looks fine, maybe even better than this year.  

Joe Ryan's WAR is 11th best of MLB pitchers, which is pretty darn good.  However, he faded in August and especially September (ERA 6.75).  On the other hand, his salary this year was $3M.  

[Maxbialystock]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Injury Update per MLB.com:

Narvaez: will have knee surgery to repair his meniscus, but "should be fine for ST'ing."

Anthony oblique & Mayer: Right wrist. "Might have made it back" had the Sox advanced in the playoffs.

Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear. Had surgery July 2nd. "Expected to have normal offseason and be ready for the start ST'ing."

Dobbins: Right ACL tear. Had surgery to repair ACL on AUG 13th. Injured on July 11th. "Expected return: 2026." Another site says ready for start if ST'ing.

Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon in left knee. Has progressed "on schedule." He "expects to be ready for ST'ing."

Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament in right elbow: had TJS. Expected to return very "late '26 or (early) '27"

As always, neat info.  😃

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Not much hitting.  In fact, just one good hitter, Anthony.  He could be a .900 OPs hitter.  The rest are lucky if they get .800 OPS.  Virtually no real HR power.   

Pitching looks fine, maybe even better than this year.  

Joe Ryan's WAR is 11th best of MLB pitchers, which is pretty darn good.  However, he faded in August and especially September (ERA 6.75).  On the other hand, his salary this year was $3M.  

Ryan has a $5.8M arb estimate for 2026, so trading Duran plus for him would actually save us money.

Of course, it would also accentuate the need for a big boost to the offense, but with the hopes that Anthony an be a near .900 batter, we might be able to get by with just one real big addition (Alonso/Schwarber) or two significant ones ( 3B Bregman/Suarez and 1B Suarez/Hoskins/Naylor or 2B Polanco/Torres/ Marte trade)

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan has a $5.8M arb estimate for 2026, so trading Duran plus for him would actually save us money.

Of course, it would also accentuate the need for a big boost to the offense, but with the hopes that Anthony an be a near .900 batter, we might be able to get by with just one real big addition (Alonso/Schwarber) or two significant ones ( 3B Bregman/Suarez and 1B Suarez/Hoskins/Naylor or 2B Polanco/Torres/ Marte trade)

"but with the hopes that Anthony an be a near .900 batter, we might be able to get by with just one real big addition (Alonso/Schwarber)"

So who hits third? and fourth? and fifth? and sixth?

You need more than 2 bats.

[Maxbialystock]

As for next year, my first step was to look at the 8 teams that made it to the ALDS and NLDS.  Why?  Because this that 3 game series for the wild cards was as fair as it gets.  See especially the Yankees, who would have lost a 1 game playoff--yet again--but finally won, barely, in 3 games.  They were to me clearly better than the Sox.  

Of the 8 Division Series teams--Seattle, Detroit, Jays, Yankees, Brewers, Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers--all 8 of them are ranked in the top 11 MLB teams in runs scored and team OPS.  But only 3--Brewers, Phillies,and Cubs--are in the top 11 in team ERA.  The outliers (below 11th) are the Mariners (13th), Yankees (14th), Tigers(16th), Dodgers(17th),  and Jays (19th).  

Let me hasten to add that the Sox finished 5th in MLB in team ERA, 7th in runs scored, and 9th in team OPS, so they definitely earned the postseason.  However, by the time Wild Card series rolled around, the Sox hitting and pitching had regressed significantly because of injuries and Bello running out of gas.  

So, if you bring back the 2025 team and they stay healthy, they should make the the postseason and possibly more.  It's that simple.  You/they can even persevere if Duran is traded and Giolito not re-signed.   

But I'm less sure they will thrive without Bregman, and I'll just bet Boras has already told the Sox that.  Bregman offers a lot to the Sox--a good bat, a righty bat (which the Sox are short of), a good glove, and a good teammate.  However, he turns 32 in March 2026 and missed 7 weeks this season from a recurrence of an earlier injury.  Maybe the Sox can offer 4 x $40 = $160M, which to me is exhorbitant.  Including this season, Bregman's career earnings are $168M.  I would be astounded if another MLB team would offer Bregman $160M.  

I agree another starter like Joe Ryan would be nice, as would a good righty bat.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

"but with the hopes that Anthony an be a near .900 batter, we might be able to get by with just one real big addition (Alonso/Schwarber)"

So who hits third? and fourth? and fifth? and sixth?

You need more than 2 bats.

I've been saying two, but one big bat would get us pretty close...

1. Anthony CF

2. Story SS

3. Abreu RF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Duran- Jh Garcia LF

6. Yoshida-Romy/Campbell DH

7. Casas-Romy/Campbell 1B

8. Mayer 3B

9. Narvaez C

If Breggie comes back and we add Alonso, we'd be fine.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been saying two, but one big bat would get us pretty close...

1. Anthony CF

2. Story SS

3. Abreu RF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Duran- Jh Garcia LF

6. Yoshida-Romy/Campbell DH

7. Casas-Romy/Campbell 1B

8. Mayer 3B

9. Narvaez C

If Breggie comes back and we add Alonso, we'd be fine.

No 2b and two 1b? 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been saying two, but one big bat would get us pretty close...

1. Anthony CF

2. Story SS

3. Abreu RF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Duran- Jh Garcia LF

6. Yoshida-Romy/Campbell DH

7. Casas-Romy/Campbell 1B

8. Mayer 3B

9. Narvaez C

If Breggie comes back and we add Alonso, we'd be fine.

No duran you traded him for ryan in this hypothetical.  And this team is not fine.

Anthony smashes the ball into the ground
Story is a league average hitter
Abreu is not a 3 hole hitter
WHy the heck is alonso hitting 4th? What are you 100?
You traded Duran
Noodlebat
Casas freaking stinks
Mayer hasnt proved he can hit at MLB, he hasnt proved he can hit at AAA
Catcher
 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No duran you traded him for ryan in this hypothetical.  And this team is not fine.

My hypothetical was to add two bats after trading Duran. I just said one huge one might get us close.

My thought was Alonso and Breggie/Suarez/K Marte. Maybe Alonso and Polanco or Torres would be just enough.
 

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Story is a league average hitter
 

League average is .719.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

League average is .719.

His OPS+ last year was 104. I thought 100 was average. Plus hes a year older next year.  I like Story, but I dont think hes a #2 hitter.  If we get 2 bats, lets say suarez and alonso (playing in your sandbox), looking at:

RA (he cant hit lower because he doesnt get enough loft with his current profile, and I know its blasphemy to say that but its how I feel)
Alonso (we arent batting our best hitter fourth in 2026, its not 1996)
Suarez
Abreu

See I think we can REALLLY use one more very good bat in the top half. ANd I dont believe that "just good enough" is a thing with offense.  I think top 3 in MLB or bust.

But this looks much better to me, and I agree we're getting close.  Now give me this + keep Breggie, and pray to the injury Gods, and Im starting to really like it.

And I would be cool w flipping Duran for Ryan in this case because I dont love the thought of RA hitting anything other than leadoff.

 

[notin]

10 hours ago, Hitch said:

It's crazy how much more solid and exciting our lineup would be if we knew we could pencil in Mayer to player 150 games at 2nd/SS. Let's hope this wrist thing is in the past now.

I'm excited to see what Dobbins and Crawford can do next year. Casas is a write off for me. See if you can send him and Hicks together (instead of Duran as you suggested in the other thread) for nothing and clear the money. 

I originally entertained the idea they'd just non-tender Houck. But I don't think they'll do that now. They love an injury project. 

Narvaez is the big one. We need him coming through that injury clean and healthy and ready to go. Notin's idea to trade for Murphy feels more and more pressing by the day.

MLBTR raised the question about non-tendering Houck.  I don’t see it.  The Sox have paid much more to pitchers missing a full season, namely Hendriks and Sandoval.  It would be an odd choice to not do so for Houck at the predicted cost.

In fact, the Sox could go under that bid to just above what Tanner made in 2025..  Houck isnt likely to win an arbitration hearing for an upcoming season he will miss…

[drewski6]

Just now, notin said:

MLBTR raised the question about non-tendering Houck.  I don’t see it.  The Sox have paid much more to pitchers missing a full season, namely Hendriks and Sandoval.  It would be an odd choice to not do so for Houck at the predicted cost.

In fact, the Sox could go under that bid to just above what Tanner made in 2025..  Houck isnt likely to win an arbitration hearing for an upcoming season he will miss…

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

His OPS+ last year was 104. I thought 100 was average. Plus hes a year older next year.  I like Story, but I dont think hes a #2 hitter.  If we get 2 bats, lets say suarez and alonso (playing in your sandbox), looking at:

RA (he cant hit lower because he doesnt get enough loft with his current profile, and I know its blasphemy to say that but its how I feel)
Alonso (we arent batting our best hitter fourth in 2026, its not 1996)
Suarez
Abreu

See I think we can REALLLY use one more very good bat in the top half. ANd I dont believe that "just good enough" is a thing with offense.  I think top 3 in MLB or bust.

But this looks much better to me, and I agree we're getting close.  Now give me this + keep Breggie, and pray to the injury Gods, and Im starting to really like it.

And I would be cool w flipping Duran for Ryan in this case because I dont love the thought of RA hitting anything other than leadoff.

 

I'm all for shooting for top 3, and I think we can get there With Alonso and one other significant bat. Just Alonso would need too much else all going rgiht at the same time, and I don't like plans like that, either.

I'd like to see Alonso plus Bregman, Suarez, KMarte or maybe Polanco or Torres.

Alonso at DH, Hoskins at 1B and Torres/Polanco at 2B would be fine. Find a taker for Yoshida or have him play some LF, once we trade Duran for Ryan. (There, I said it again.)

I don't want just one. I'm expecting zero to one, and the one might be just Hoskins or Torres.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

MLBTR raised the question about non-tendering Houck.  I don’t see it.  The Sox have paid much more to pitchers missing a full season, namely Hendriks and Sandoval.  It would be an odd choice to not do so for Houck at the predicted cost.

In fact, the Sox could go under that bid to just above what Tanner made in 2025..  Houck isnt likely to win an arbitration hearing for an upcoming season he will miss…

The other consideration is that since Houck will miss 2026 and sucked in 2025, his last arb year in 2027 will not be much. He'll be about as cheap as Paxton, Henricks. Kluber and Richards were.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

MLBTR raised the question about non-tendering Houck.  I don’t see it.  The Sox have paid much more to pitchers missing a full season, namely Hendriks and Sandoval.  It would be an odd choice to not do so for Houck at the predicted cost.

In fact, the Sox could go under that bid to just above what Tanner made in 2025..  Houck isnt likely to win an arbitration hearing for an upcoming season he will miss…

Some teams have non-tendered injured players, but it'd be a bad look for the Sox.