Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[UtahSox]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And while JH & Co. might view 5 years as large and LONG, it's not 6-10 years.

 

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "full throttle" was so absurdly over-the-top and disingenuous that everything that comes after is doubted and should be. Plus, much of what they said after that has not come true.

It's been a never-ending spiraling sham.

I think JH & Co are very disingenuous on saying his age didn’t fit. They were being cheap. That’s the end of it. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Crochet, Bello, story, Duran. Prime is always defined in retrospect so we will see who is where. 

I'd say Whitlock is, too.

Story and Masa are on the way down from peak prime. Chapman is way past ordinary prime.

In terms of age, I'd say 28 is peak prime, so Romy is 28 & Crawford 29.

Slaten, Narvarez & Abreu are close by age.

So many of our best players are 2-4 years from peak prime:

26: Crochet, Bello, Abreu, Narvaez

25: Casas, Dobbins

24: Rafaela

23: Early, Tolle, Harrison

22: Mayer

21: Anthony

[harmony]

The Red Sox trade Luis Perales to the Washington Nationals for lefthander Jake Bennett in a swap of pitching prospects:

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/2000716983034106004?s=20

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/red-sox-nationals-to-swap-luis-perales-jake-bennett.html#comments

[Jasonbay44]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox trade Luis Perales to the Washington Nationals for lefthander Jake Bennett in a swap of pitching prospects:

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/2000716983034106004?s=20

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/red-sox-nationals-to-swap-luis-perales-jake-bennett.html#comments

Not sure I really understand this one…

[UtahSox]

prime years 28-32 agree, but GREAT players generally tend to play good longer… I’d definitely put Pete Alonso Marte even Bregman in that category all of them on 5 year deals are not the end of the world. And would have given/ still could give us a shot at WS 2026-2028. 
 

Our 4 championship years MVP’s + key players over 30 ( I know there are more on each team but guys that played key parts in our WS wins)

2004- MVP Manny Ramirez (32) +Varitek (32), Damon (31), Mueller(34), Millar(33), Pokey(31), Pedro(33), Lowe(31) Schilling(37) Wakefield(37)

2007- MVP Mike Lowell (33)+ Varitek(35),Manny (35), Wakefield (41), Schilling (41), Tavarez (35), JD Drew (30), Timlin (41) Ortiz (32)

2013- MVP David Ortiz (38)+Ellsbury (30), Pedroia (30), Napoli (32), Lackey (35), Victorino (33), Drew (30) Gomes(33)

2018-  MVP Steve Pearce (35)+ Price (33), JD Martinez (31), Hanley (35)

2025- Arguably our MVP Aroldis Chapman (37), Bregman (31), Story (33), Giolito (31) Buehler (31) 

[harmony]

21 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Not sure I really understand this one…

At MLB.com, Luis Perales was the seventh-ranked prospect in a well-regarded Boston farm system while Jake Bennett was the 11th-ranked prospect in a lightly-regarded Washington farm system.

SoxProspects had Perales ranked fourth in the Red Sox system.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

We should have been able to afford Alonso.

they could easily afford Alonso, but they chose not to. most likely they thought his cost was too high. this is the problem....Henry still thinks it's 2005 when it comes to payroll. the contract Alonso signed with the Orioles was not absurd and ranks as the 41st highest in MLB in terms of overall dollars. the Red Sox highest contract (in overall dollars) belongs to Garret Crochet at $170M. this is just 36th in the league. in my mind, it's inexcusable for a team like the Red Sox with the revenue they have to not be more aggressive. it they had the revenue of the Rays or Marlins or Pirates, i'd understand. in fact, there are 22 teams that spend a greater share of their revenue on payroll than the Sox, including the A's, Rockies, Royals, Twins and Mariners.

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, harmony said:

At MLB.com, Luis Perales was the seventh-ranked prospect in a well-regarded Boston farm system while Jake Bennett was the 11th-ranked prospect in a lightly-regarded Washington farm system.

SoxProspects had Perales ranked fourth in the Red Sox system.

Pipeline is not updated, Boston’s farm system has taken a huge step back from trades and graduations while Bennett is currently ranked 6th in Washington’s system.  While Perales is ranked 5th in Boston’s.

im not saying I like the trade, but the difference between Perales isn’t as extreme as people think.  The Sox certainly seem to think not.

are they right? Ask me again in several years.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pipeline is not updated, Boston’s farm system has taken a huge step back from trades and graduations while Bennett is currently ranked 6th in Washington’s system.  While Perales is ranked 5th in Boston’s.

im not saying I like the trade, but the difference between Perales isn’t as extreme as people think.  The Sox certainly seem to think not.

are they right? Ask me again in several years.

Good points. I’m still skeptical

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Getting Greene would lessen the need for offense, maybe from 2 big bats to one.

we both want the team to improve, and there are more than one way to do that

Quit dreaming. Sox are NOT getting Greene. How many SP do we need ??  Yes Greene would be nice but it should have come before the 2 new additions we got. Get to work Craig on scouring the options to add a bat you can acquire on a 1 yr deal.

[Randy Red Sox]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pipeline is not updated, Boston’s farm system has taken a huge step back from trades and graduations while Bennett is currently ranked 6th in Washington’s system.  While Perales is ranked 5th in Boston’s.

im not saying I like the trade, but the difference between Perales isn’t as extreme as people think.  The Sox certainly seem to think not.

are they right? Ask me again in several years.

Perales likely told Craig he would not sign a 1 yr deal.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Pipeline is not updated, Boston’s farm system has taken a huge step back from trades and graduations while Bennett is currently ranked 6th in Washington’s system.  While Perales is ranked 5th in Boston’s.

im not saying I like the trade, but the difference between Perales isn’t as extreme as people think.  The Sox certainly seem to think not.

are they right? Ask me again in several years.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values gave Luis Perales a surplus value of $17.3 million and Jake Bennett a surplus value of $6 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/205682

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values gave Luis Perales a surplus value of $17.3 million and Jake Bennett a surplus value of $6 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/205682

Maybe the 3 options vs 1 option was the main reason.

[Larry Cook]

Kim signed with Atlanta. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Kim signed with Atlanta. 

$20M/1.

The type of contract the Sox love!

We cannot say Brez had no short term options, this year after this and the $20M x 2 Polanco signings.

[FredLynn]

6 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I am not one who necessarily agrees with the opinions of many on this forum when it comes to spending, but I do agree that it's not a good look when the fanbase continually feels deceived or lied to.  

Welcome to the cynic club!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Welcome to the cynic club!

There Cynics and maybe even a club of them, but then there is one single, site doomsayer.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

$20M/1.

The type of contract the Sox love!

We cannot say Brez had no short term options, this year after this and the $20M x 2 Polanco signings.

$20m feels high for both of them. Not in the least bit worried we didn't get either. 

Consider Marte's $17m against these two. The prices have surprised me so far this off season. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

$20m feels high for both of them. Not in the least bit worried we didn't get either. 

Consider Marte's $17m against these two. The prices have surprised me so far this off season. 

Rosenthal is reporting that with deferrals, Marte's contract is actually $14.7m on the LT.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Pipeline is not updated, Boston’s farm system has taken a huge step back from trades and graduations while Bennett is currently ranked 6th in Washington’s system.  While Perales is ranked 5th in Boston’s.

im not saying I like the trade, but the difference between Perales isn’t as extreme as people think.  The Sox certainly seem to think not.

are they right? Ask me again in several years.

Weird trade. At first I thought it was to save a 40 man spot for like kind prospects, but Bennett is on the 40 man. Maybe Bennett is more likely to be a starter in Breslow's opinion? IDK. He knows what he wants for the pitching org. The former Sox guys in the Nats org are probably happy to snag Perales. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

$20M/1.

The type of contract the Sox love!

We cannot say Brez had no short term options, this year after this and the $20M x 2 Polanco signings.

Too much for Kim TBH.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values gave Luis Perales a surplus value of $17.3 million and Jake Bennett a surplus value of $6 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/205682

They do a really bad job with prospects. 

[Hitch]

 

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Weird trade. At first I thought it was to save a 40 man spot for like kind prospects, but Bennett is on the 40 man. Maybe Bennett is more likely to be a starter in Breslow's opinion? IDK. He knows what he wants for the pitching org. The former Sox guys in the Nats org are probably happy to snag Perales. 

General reports on the trade seem to be - Red Sox have got the certain starter with higher floor. Nationals have got the possible starter/possible bull pen piece with higher ceiling. 

Feels about right. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Weird trade. At first I thought it was to save a 40 man spot for like kind prospects, but Bennett is on the 40 man. Maybe Bennett is more likely to be a starter in Breslow's opinion? IDK. He knows what he wants for the pitching org. The former Sox guys in the Nats org are probably happy to snag Perales. 

Apparently Breslow has a type and Bennett is it. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

General reports on the trade seem to be - Red Sox have got the certain starter with higher floor. Nationals have got the possible starter/possible bull pen piece with higher ceiling. 

Feels about right. 

Perales has 1.5 options (maybe earns a second year, maybe not). Bennett has 3. 

Perales: 161 IP since '21

Bennett: 138 IP since '23

Both missed a full season due to TJS, but Perales has had a TON of injury issues since his DSL days.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Apparently Breslow has a type and Bennett is it. 

Lefthanded pitchers that look like they could work a farmyard. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

$20m feels high for both of them. Not in the least bit worried we didn't get either. 

Consider Marte's $17m against these two. The prices have surprised me so far this off season. 

I'm not worried, either, but if we miss out on what we need and the excuse is no long term deals, these will be examples of shorter deals we missed out on.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not worried, either, but if we miss out on what we need and the excuse is no long term deals, these will be examples of shorter deals we missed out on.

They also don't want to go over the 2nd CBT threshold. A high AAV for a plus defensive SS, isn't helpful to the Sox right now. Maybe in '28? 

[Hugh2]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Lefthanded pitchers that look like they could work a farmyard. 

Tall, elite extension

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

$20m feels high for both of them. Not in the least bit worried we didn't get either. 

Consider Marte's $17m against these two. The prices have surprised me so far this off season. 

They feel and seem high; however, inflation only goes one way, and one thing I think we've seen regarding changes in contracting, is that what separates the contracts from the very good (or better) vs the contracts for "serviceable"/"solid" has been more about years and overall contract than AAV.  So by that I mean, teams are willing to pay a higher AAV to keep contracts short-term, and thats why the AAV of these contracts seem high.

In baseball, its rare that contracts "snap back" but not uneard of.  There are years when free-agency gets especially wacky, but I dont think this is one of those years.  Just like theres trends to what we are all looking for in ballplayers (obp vs power vs defense) some "eras" seem to prioritize one over the other, I think the current contracting "era" is that average players get 20-25m for 1-3 years and significantly better than average players get 24-30m for significantly more years (of course age when inking the contract matters a lot as well).  

Think of it like this: people use to haggle on price when buying a car. But these days, the price is kind of the price (excluding third party sales) and maybe you can get them down a little, but where you negotiate these days is "I want free tune-ups for 3 years" or "I want a free set of extra floormats"

Relative to baseball contracts, I think the AAV are becoming less variable , and they seem to be high teens -low twenties for "useful" playres and mid-twenties to low thirties for better than useful players.  But where the negotation come in are the structure (opt-outs, protections, incentive vs guaranteed, years)