A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

who? LOLOL and what is he doing for us now? 

Only 5 pitchers in our whole farm system have pitched more innings with a lower ERA:

2.17 Early

1.84 Rivera

1.97 Mullins

2.27 Criswell (not a prospect)

2.44 Sansone

3.14 Holobetz

[Duran Is The Man]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Only 5 pitchers in our whole farm system have pitched more innings with a lower ERA:

2.17 Early

1.84 Rivera

1.97 Mullins

2.27 Criswell (not a prospect)

2.44 Sansone

3.14 Holobetz

he's in A ball. i'll be impressed when he's doing this in the bigs.

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We will not get Peralta without giving back serious quality.

Painter will likely cost us 2-3 high level prospects: if not two from Anthony, Mayer, KC and Garcia, at least one plus one or two from Arias, Bleis, Cespedes, Tolle, Clarke or Valera.

I have no problem moving on from bleis and/or cespedes in a trade!! 
To move arias, tolle and/or Clark, it would have to be for a young established excellent arm!!! 
Valera is on my untouchable list. His stuff is dazzling when he is healthy 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he's in A ball. i'll be impressed when he's doing this in the bigs.

I can't wait!

[Larry Cook]

Romero has been hitting well since he came off the DL. 
tibbs is really hard to watch play!!!!he always seems clueless yet someone does not get killed in the field, and occasionally lucks into a hit in the batters box!!

ehrhard can look like Mike trout one day and Connor Wong the next day!!!! I hope he figures it out soon 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I have no problem moving on from bleis and/or cespedes in a trade!! 
To move arias, tolle and/or Clark, it would have to be for a young established excellent arm!!! 
Valera is on my untouchable list. His stuff is dazzling when he is healthy 

We aren't getting Peralta for Bleis & Cespedes, even if we add Sandlin & Mullins.

 

[moonslav59]

Want a wild & crazy plan?

Trade: Abreu (pre-arb + 3 arbs,) Story ($25M x 2 w $25M option '28 and $5M buyout), Wong (3 arbs), Casas (3 arbs,)  Arias & Sandlin (prospects)

For: Matt Olson (1B, 31 y/o and owed $22M x 5 + $20M option '30) and Sean Murphy (C, 30 y/0 and owed $15M x 3 + $15M option '28)

_______________________________

Trade: Duran ($8M then 2 arbs) & Yoshida ($18M x 2) plus $13M x 2 cash. & Fitts (prospect)

For: Luis Castillo (32 y/o and owed $23M x 2 w vesting option)

_______________________________

Extend Bregman $32M x 5

_______________________________

Sign: Framber Valdez (32 y/o) $32M x 4

Sign: A Chapman (37 y/o) $11M x 2

_______________________________

The 2026 Red Sox

SP: Crochet, Valdez, Castillo, Bello, Sandoval (Dobbins/Crawford)

RP: Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Dobbins, Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Hicks (Weissert, Murphy, Early, Perales, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero)

C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH)

1B: Olson, Toro

2B: Campbell, DHam

SS: Mayer, Romy (DH)

3B: Bregman (Romy)

LF: Anthony (Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia)

RF: Jh Garcia, Refsnyder (DH)

I know, I know... not for the "Realistic" thread.

 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Want a wild & crazy plan?

Trade: Abreu (pre-arb + 3 arbs,) Story ($25M x 2 w $25M option '28 and $5M buyout), Wong (3 arbs), Casas (3 arbs,)  Arias & Sandlin (prospects)

For: Matt Olson (1B, 31 y/o and owed $22M x 5 + $20M option '30) and Sean Murphy (C, 30 y/0 and owed $15M x 3 + $15M option '28)

_______________________________

Trade: Duran ($8M then 2 arbs) & Yoshida ($18M x 2) plus $13M x 2 cash. & Fitts (prospect)

For: Luis Castillo (32 y/o and owed $23M x 2 w vesting option)

_______________________________

Extend Bregman $32M x 5

_______________________________

Sign: Framber Valdez (32 y/o) $32M x 4

Sign: A Chapman (37 y/o) $11M x 2

_______________________________

The 2026 Red Sox

SP: Crochet, Valdez, Castillo, Bello, Sandoval (Dobbins/Crawford)

RP: Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Dobbins, Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Hicks (Weissert, Murphy, Early, Perales, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero)

C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH)

1B: Olson, Toro

2B: Campbell, DHam

SS: Mayer, Romy (DH)

3B: Bregman (Romy)

LF: Jh Garcia (Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia)

RF: Abreu, Refsnyder (DH)

I know, I know... not for the "Realistic" thread.

 

I'm assuming you meant Anthony in RF not Abreu. Either way, I don't think even 'unrealistic' covers this. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm assuming you meant Anthony in RF not Abreu. Either way, I don't think even 'unrealistic' covers this. 

I made the adjustment, and yes, unrealistic.

[bkzwhitestrican]

So are the Sox sellers at the deadline? They're only 3 GB of a wild card spot, and if Breslow believes in this team as much as he says he does then I would think they should be looking to add MLB talent at the deadline. Otherwise I guess 2025 will be yet another 'rebuild' year. 

[Maxbialystock]

On 6/28/2025 at 12:09 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

The mad as hell part would be true, the not going to take it any more part would be a big fat lie.

Agree.  Such is the nature of fandom.  

[dgalehouse]

Having three wild cards is the lure that keeps teams and fans hopes alive. There are fewer sellers than previously. How can you justify throwing in the towel when you are three games out of a wild card with eighty games to play ? 

[vegasbob]

Being realistic,  Bregman's pending return in about 20 days will require him to get back up to MLB speed, say end of  July.   He will help .   Move  Mayer to 2B and solidify that position for awhile .    Leave Story at SS and avoid further controversy, pending the trade deadline .  Give YOSHIDA a shot at DH very soon so that other teams can see he can hit, then trade and eat the contract , no controversy there.

Platoon Toro and Gonzalez and hope for a plate presence from our 1Bman

Clear the OF overload and move guys like Duran/Abreu as needed to get  Anthony and perhaps Garcia  in the mix.

Leave Campbell at WooSox until rosters open up in September .  

The trade deadline must address controllable , younger ( post TJ) starting and/or relief pitching .   Houck may be shot , Crawford may be shot,  Fitts/Dobbins may or may not be good for '26.  Buehler is another fail try at rehabbing a  pitcher .  

While it could still happen, there is absolutely no sign that the Sox are able to consistently compete with the current AAAA crew playing /pitching daily.  Get better as AC continually says.

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

So are the Sox sellers at the deadline? They're only 3 GB of a wild card spot, and if Breslow believes in this team as much as he says he does then I would think they should be looking to add MLB talent at the deadline. Otherwise I guess 2025 will be yet another 'rebuild' year. 

There's still a month left to the deadline, of course.  A lot could happen.  Or not.

Sox fandom is generally feeling gloomy these days, needless to say.  Some of our resident armchair team builders have been talking about selling for quite a while now.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Having three wild cards is the lure that keeps teams and fans hopes alive. There are fewer sellers than previously. How can you justify throwing in the towel when you are three games out of a wild card with eighty games to play ? 

You're right, but look at what it's done to the Sox the last 3 years.  They've been very indecisive, knowing the team probably wasn't good enough but not wanting to chuck it all in.  This is one of the results of the ever-expanding playoff system. 

Manfred and the owners like it because it means more money.  

 

[dgalehouse]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're right, but look at what it's done to the Sox the last 3 years.  They've been very indecisive, knowing the team probably wasn't good enough but not wanting to chuck it all in.  This is one of the results of the ever-expanding playoff system. 

Manfred and the owners like it because it means more money.  

 

Yes. Money is the reason for expanded playoffs. No doubt about that. Money is also the reason for many of the gimmicks, such as City Connect uniforms. P.T. Barnum knew what he was talking about. 

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We aren't getting Peralta for Bleis & Cespedes, even if we add Sandlin & Mullins.

 

I think the deepest hole on our team is the number two spot in the rotation. 
 

I realize most people on this site over value prospects, but we have to give to get!!!

I agree, it will take a lot to get and that is why we need to aim for the absolute best arm we can because we have a ton of mlb players and prospects to give. 
 

I do not know what teams want for starters, but I have no problem over paying to get a number 2 starter. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Having three wild cards is the lure that keeps teams and fans hopes alive. There are fewer sellers than previously. How can you justify throwing in the towel when you are three games out of a wild card with eighty games to play ? 

Because even when we had Bregman in the line up and crushing it and Devers behind him we couldn't sustain winning baseball. We now have no Devers and Bregman is still out a couple of weeks.

What shows you that we are likely to start winning at a percentage we've not sniffed in a couple of years?

I do think if we sell off to an extent, it has to be with an eye to next year - get players in that help us next year. Which is easier said than done.

[vjcsmoke]

2 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

So are the Sox sellers at the deadline? They're only 3 GB of a wild card spot, and if Breslow believes in this team as much as he says he does then I would think they should be looking to add MLB talent at the deadline. Otherwise I guess 2025 will be yet another 'rebuild' year. 

Red Sox management literally hired Breslow to lie to us. Of course he's going to say he believes in this team. Saying otherwise would kill ticket sales. He's not a total idiot. Getting rid of Devers was dumb AF but it was probably part of management's bigger picture plan to reduce salaries. I don't see how you replace a .900 OPS hitter that was anchoring your lineup. And even if you do, let's say Bregman comes back healthy soon, all the other hitters decided to slump at the same time. Oof. And our pitching outside of Crochett is still quite unreliable.

I don't see us making the playoffs in 2025. Red Sox will continue their quest for mediocrity and lower payrolls. Don't know what else to say but their quest to become Tampa North has been a failure and a disaster.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

So are the Sox sellers at the deadline? They're only 3 GB of a wild card spot, and if Breslow believes in this team as much as he says he does then I would think they should be looking to add MLB talent at the deadline. Otherwise I guess 2025 will be yet another 'rebuild' year. 

To think we can do enough at the deadline to become a serious contender might be the biggest mistake possible.

Now, if we pull things together in the next 5 weeks, and returning players from the IL are looking back to form, and we seem to be just 2- maybe 3- key pieces from being a top 3 AL team, then okay, but as of now, that seems pretty remote.

We should know more in a few weeks. I'm not giving in, yet, but if the trade deadline was tomorrow, I'm all in on selling every FA, except if Bregman can be extended. Then, I trade Duran and or Abreu. If we trade both for nice returns, we can go with ...

LF Anthony 

CF Rafaela

RF Jh Garcia

DH Yoshida- Romy

[dgalehouse]

I think the Sox should do their very best to improve the team and make a run at the playoffs. Wait til next year is getting very old . 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I think the Sox should do their very best to improve the team and make a run at the playoffs. Wait til next year is getting very old . 

It would take trading away much of "next year's" talent, and then when we fall short, like we likely will, anyway, we can't even say "Wait till next year." We'll be saying, "Wait till 2033."

[Bellhorn04]

Deja vu all over again.  It's depressing if you dwell on it too much.  Especially with a month to go before the deadline. 

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would take trading away much of "next year's" talent, and then when we fall short, like we likely will, anyway, we can't even say "Wait till next year." We'll be saying, "Wait till 2033."

Next year’s talent? The team is mostly journeyman, and highly suspect SUSPECTS, or players like Duran who have dwarfed back closer to being the Butterfly Man than the player from last year. This is year 4 now that the Red Sox from JH on down have peed on you, and all the fans, and told you it was raining, and you still haven’t put on a raincoat, and you still want to wait longer to buy one.🤭

[dgalehouse]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would take trading away much of "next year's" talent, and then when we fall short, like we likely will, anyway, we can't even say "Wait till next year." We'll be saying, "Wait till 2033."

Baseball is a competitive sport. The Sox are the third highest valued franchise. There is no excuse not to go for it. Saying the " future looks bright" and the farm is looking good is something we have been hearing for several years now. That's enough of that. 

[moonslav59]

I know I'm a homer. I know I've been more of an optimist than many on this site, but I'm souring on this year's hopes due to the Devers trade and being sick and tired of pinning hopes on players returning from the IL and producing like they were beforehand. That's been as bad as the "wait till next year" mantra. "Wait till ____, ____ & _____ return!"

Trying to be objective, let's look at our near half way point fWAR positional rankings:

9th Catcher (Better than I expected and a nice outlook going beyond 2025)

25th 1B (Way worse than I expected and little hope Casas will rebound, next season.)

28th 2B (This position has been absurdly horrible for way too long. Only Mayer at 2B would give me hope, but we need him at SS and maybe 3B, too. KC might rebound.)

23rd SS (About what I expected, but that was assuming Story would not be healthy. No hope here, except Mayer.)

3rd 3B (Was #1 before Bregman got hurt. No hope, here, if Bregman bolts. See Mayer comment)

15th LF (Falling like a lead balloon and worse than I expected for a Duran regression. Anthony & Jh Garcia offer hope.)

6th CF (Better than I expected from Rafaela. Nice outlook, here.)

6th RF (I actually expected this from the Abreu-Refsnyder platoon. Nice future, here.)

4th DH (But this is a mirage with Devers gone.)

4th Pen (Way, way, way better than I expected. Future unknown.)

15th SP (About as expected. The depth helped, a lot, but the failures of Houck and Buehler to nail down the 2-3 slots killed us. Bello and Dobbins help make the future look brighter, but they do not offset the darkness from Houck, Crawford, Criswell and Fitts from preseason expectations.)

All in all, C, CF, RF, the pen and 3B look like pluses for 2025. That's it.

That is not hopeful.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Next year’s talent? The team is mostly journeyman, and highly suspect SUSPECTS, or players like Duran who have dwarfed back closer to being the Butterfly Man than the player from last year. This is year 4 now that the Red Sox from JH on down have peed on you, and all the fans, and told you it was raining, and you still haven’t put on a raincoat, and you still want to wait longer to buy one.🤭

Journeymen: Gio, Wilson, Romy (all doing okay) Toro, Eaton, Wong, DHam and Weissert.

Useful vets: Bregman, Chapman,Abreu, Refsnyder

Not useful: Buehler, Hicks, Hendriks with Duran & Houck (not for right now, anyway)

Players approaching pre-prime or peak prime: Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Sandoval, Crawford, Slaten Whitlock, Harrison, Narvaez, Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, and prospects not yet in MLB.

I'm not sure where the "most" comes from.

Feel free to move anyone to the Journeymen category and name the "Highly suspect" suspects, specifically. If you count Gio, Wilson, Romy, Duran and Houck in either of your categories, I come to maybe 13 out of 26. (See the Journeymen + Not useful lists)

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Baseball is a competitive sport. The Sox are the third highest valued franchise. There is no excuse not to go for it. Saying the " future looks bright" and the farm is looking good is something we have been hearing for several years now. That's enough of that. 

I'm not making an excuse. I'm merely pointing out that if you trade tomorrow's stars for the here and now, it will effect tomorrow. You can keep saying we can just spend more and more and more, but even that has limits. How many rings do the high spending Mets have?

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Journeymen: Gio, Wilson, Romy (all doing okay) Toro, Eaton, Wong, DHam and Weissert.

Useful vets: Bregman, Chapman,Abreu, Refsnyder

Not useful: Buehler, Hicks, Hendriks with Duran & Houck (not for right now, anyway)

Players approaching pre-prime or peak prime: Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Sandoval, Crawford, Slaten Whitlock, Harrison, Narvaez, Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, and prospects not yet in MLB.

I'm not sure where the "most" comes from.

Feel free to move anyone to the Journeymen category and name the "Highly suspect" suspects, specifically. If you count Gio, Wilson, Romy, Duran and Houck in either of your categories, I come to maybe 13 out of 26. (See the Journeymen + Not useful lists)

Mayer, Anthony, and Campbell are still highly suspect SUSPECTS. I should have said the starting lineup on a nightly bases is more journeyman , and the suspects, and Duran being closer to the Butterfly Man.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not making an excuse. I'm merely pointing out that if you trade tomorrow's stars for the here and now, it will effect tomorrow. You can keep saying we can just spend more and more and more, but even that has limits. How many rings do the high spending Mets have?

4 years in a row now you’ve been more concerned about tomorrow than today, and tomorrow has never been guaranteed.