A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

He’s looking like a future star.  Play him at one position, even if it’s first base…

I've thought Campbell at 1B is the best option for over a week.

Calling up Mayer makes more sense than a DH timeshare, Anthony at DH or some sort of Refsnyder- ___ platoon at DH. 

C: Narvaez 

1B: Campbell

DH: Devers

2B: Story

SS: Mayer

3B: Bregman

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

Bench: Rafaela, Wong, Ref/Abreu, Romy (DHam?)

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

KC is 27th in wRC+ and 26th in runs.

 

The White Sox are below KC in both stats you mentioned.  They scored 31 runs against us in 7 games.  It was huge to hold KC to so few runs regardless of how bad their offense is.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 5th in OPS and 12th in wRC+.

9th in ERA- and 8th in FIP

18th in DRS & 15th in OAA

On paper, these numbers show we are about 10th. We have the 13th best record in MLB. We are 5.5 GB the best record (same distance to #26) We are 2 games from the 7th best record in MLB, while 2 ahead of #21.

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders (140+ PAs)

1.274 Judge

1.051 Ohtani

1.047 Alonso

.998 Schwarber

.951 Bregman (9th in wRC+)

8. Abreu .931 (11th wRC+)

16. Devers .888 (18th)

59. Campbell .774 (58th)

ERA- (20+ IP)

26 Fried

16. Crochet 46

18. Bello 48

40. Dobbins 67

69. Whitlock 81

74. Newcomb 86

103. Buehler 102

168. Houck 146 (180 in sample size)

 

[moonslav59]

What's up with out 4 slot in the batting order? (.528 OPS)

.687 Story (43 PAs) The only guy with a higher 4 slot OPS than overall (.653)

.551 Casas (53) Overall: .580

.545 Refsnyder (11) Overall: .918

.528 Abreu (53) Overall: .931

.231 Campbell (26) Overall: .774

 

Our .690 first slot isn't very good, either (.310 OBP.) almost all Duran.

Our 7-8-9 slots are hitting a combined .695. MB is hitting .708 overall!

[vjcsmoke]

On 5/9/2025 at 9:31 AM, moonslav59 said:

Indeed.

Even if Casas never plays for Boston, again, it doesn't mean Devers will be the permanent 1Bman. It's easier to find a plus 1Bman in the winter- not in early May. 

I was thinking- perhaps just hoping- Devers would want to play 1B over DH'ing, since he seemed to say he liked being on the field, when the opps were at bat. Who knows, maybe if he ends up playing there, he will like it. We may never find out.

In all likelihood, Devers was always destined to end up at DH by the end of his deal. It happened sooner than he expected, and sooner than maybe what Bloom & Co. promised or intended. Things change in life, and his defense at 3B was not improving. Somehow, he fooled himself into thinking he was a decent or good enough 3Bman on defense, but he wasn't, and that aspect of his game hurt the team. He was still always a big overall plus, but moving him to DH helped the team.

Now, moving him to 1B could help the team. Personally, despite me talking about Devers to 1B for a half a decade, I'd prefer Campbell at 1B to make way for Mayer, if Brez and Cora think Devers at 1B is the better solution, then that is what any good teammate should do.

Does Papi need to have a sitdown with Devers? I'm not sure Cora, alone can get him to agree to the idea. Maybe, Devers will eventually come around, but the team does not need this, right now, or ever.

I think the real problem was setting expectations. The Red Sox did not talk with Devers ahead of time and say, well we want to improve the team, and if we sign a guy like Bregman we really need you to consider 1B OR DH for the good of the team. If the conversation had gone down like that before free agency I don't think we'd have nearly as much friction now.

Whether or not you like Devers reaction, I think you can see his point. You told me, I'm not the 3B anymore, I'm the DH. Now you want me to switch from DH to 1B? To him it feels like 2 position switches. Maybe Papi acting as an ambassador in this situation could help smooth things over, but do Breslow and Red Sox management think the same thing and did they reach out to him for help here? Who knows.

Cora at least seems to back Devers staying at DH. He's doing the smart thing by keeping his star player happy.

[moonslav59]

I can see being upset, and feeling he was mislead, but the circumstances change, like the often do, and the team needs a change. The leaders felt moving him was the best idea, at the time, and he seems to be balking at the idea.

I will say, I'm still a big Devers fan.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com Sox injury update:

May 18th Romy

May 19-21 Buhler

June Fitts

Mid June Crawford ("at the earliest")

June, at the earliest Yoshida

Midseason Sandoval

After All Star Murphy

 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lawson probably didn't want to throw his player under the bus like that. Good on him. Not sure how that kind of stuff gets out there. 

Not sure the Sox are going to get Rafaela to have metrics better than where they are right now anyway. He has cut way down on his k's and increased his bb's. Just let him be who he is and he's on a bit of a roll right now anyway (767 OPS, 108 wRC+ since 4/22). Seems like they are priming the pump for a change in CF. 

Agreed on all counts. When Raf has his next mini slump, I think the call may be made for Anthony. Duran will be back in center. 

[moonslav59]

That was a real tough loss, last night.

We simply cannot keep losing winnable games like that.

While we do have a few wins we could have/should have lost, to me, it seems like we have many more we should have won.

The vibes seem to be going in the wrong direction. Maybe a jolt is needed. Call up the kids.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was a real tough loss, last night.

We simply cannot keep losing winnable games like that.

While we do have a few wins we could have/should have lost, to me, it seems like we have many more we should have won.

The vibes seem to be going in the wrong direction. Maybe a jolt is needed. Call up the kids.

Calling up the kids isn’t going to fix the bullpen.  (Well, maybe Guerrero.) But have we really reached the point where every stumble is an excuse to call up Anthony and/or Mayer?

It is possible moving Tanner Houck to the bullpen could help.  Houck is having a bizarre season in the rotation.  In 43.2 IP, he has been charged with 38 ER.  In 43 of those IP, he’s given up 21 ER.  And in the other 0.2 IP, he’s been charged with 18 ER.

He’s not shown he can be trusted as a starter.  Hopefully a move to the bullpen can produce a turnaround similar to what St. Louis is getting out of Steve Matz.

That does leave a gaping hole in the rotation.  With Crochet, Giolito, Dobbins and Bello in place, there’s no real option for a fifth.  Criswell? Newcomb? Most likely someone like that until one of Buehler, Crawford or Fitts returns. (Although I think Fitts should go to the bullpen, too.)

[mvp 78]

Sox go to DET and pitch against a team with a top 5 wRC+. Obv, the pitching gets rocked. 

It just shows that holding a bad offense down (KC) meant very little. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Red Sox pitcher blasts MLB over Pete Rose decision

Having met rose a few times, I didn't feel bad that he was banned.

He was a complete jerk and got what he deserved IMO.

[Duran Is The Man]

On 5/12/2025 at 8:24 PM, moonslav59 said:

I can see being upset, and feeling he was mislead, but the circumstances change, like the often do, and the team needs a change. The leaders felt moving him was the best idea, at the time, and he seems to be balking at the idea.

I will say, I'm still a big Devers fan.

how is it that everyone on the planet knew Devers should be taking reps in spring training for the inevitable, yet the thought seems to have never even crossed Cora's mind. i like Devers too, but he's still a ******** for not even trying to play first.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how is it that everyone on the planet knew Devers should be taking reps in spring training for the inevitable, yet the thought seems to have never even crossed Cora's mind. 

I agree. Cora is so anti-rocking the boat, that it hurts the team.

[jdc69]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Cora is so anti-rocking the boat, that it hurts the team.

Everything seems to point, not to lack of skill, but psychological, as well as lack of small ball skills. I've heard we are worst in productive outs, men left on base and losing one run games. Other than that our stats are pretty good. To me that starts at the top, not the players. Another stat that points to it being psychological is we are first in errors. With all the defensive improvements,  that should not be the case.

[oldtimer]

On 5/12/2025 at 4:42 PM, moonslav59 said:

I've thought Campbell at 1B is the best option for over a week.

Calling up Mayer makes more sense than a DH timeshare, Anthony at DH or some sort of Refsnyder- ___ platoon at DH. 

C: Narvaez 

1B: Campbell

DH: Devers

2B: Story

SS: Mayer

3B: Bregman

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

Bench: Rafaela, Wong, Ref/Abreu, Romy (DHam?)

I've recommended bringing up the prospects from day 1. With Casas having a bad start and now gone for the year, playing Campbell at first makes more sense than trading away our prospects for an existing first baseman.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Cora is so anti-rocking the boat, that it hurts the team.

Cora is Anti-rocking the boat, and Raffy is being insubordinate you say. My thinking is, and has been all along is that Cora just doesn’t see Raffy as a good fit at 1B unlike all of you who just take it for granted that he would. No matter how many times you call Raffy names, and question Cora on this it doesn’t get Raffy any closer to playing 1B. Cora knows Raffy better than anyone, and if he thought Raffy would be a good fit over there he would have had a talk about it with Raffy already. He hasn’t, and said he wasn’t going to. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Everything seems to point, not to lack of skill, but psychological, as well as lack of small ball skills. I've heard we are worst in productive outs, men left on base and losing one run games. Other than that our stats are pretty good. To me that starts at the top, not the players. Another stat that points to it being psychological is we are first in errors. With all the defensive improvements,  that should not be the case.

I have been surprised by all the errors, but defense is not just about reducing errors. It's about making plays others make or don't make, turning DPs and blocking potential WPs.

I think our D is better, and I hope we start seeing less errors.

It is very surprising that Bregman & Story have 5 errors each and Duran 3. Those are our error leaders. 

Our team is currently 17th in DRS and 14th in OAA. We are 6th in fangraph's rankings. In 2024, they had us ranked 26th. In DRS, we were 6th, and I don't know how. We were 25th in OAA. Only DRS shows we got worse.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can't blame the Red Sox batters' pitiful approach to advancing baserunners on the Cora family. The Cora brothers weren't All-Star hitters, but they knew how to get it done.

In their careers, Alex Cora and brother Joey had 145 sacrifice bunts. AC had 61, Joey 84.

Boston's ineptitude at moving baserunners is a company-wide blueprint. It's a front office analytical philosophy that predates Breslow.

The Red Sox have 47 total sac bunts this decade (2020-2025).

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's a front office analytical philosophy that predates Breslow.

It's actually a league-wide philosophy.

Sacrifice bunts have steadily declined since 2010 with an even steeper decline since 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's actually a league-wide philosophy.

Sacrifice bunts have steadily declined since 2010 with an even steeper decline since 2021.

Right. And whatever you do, if Blake Snell strikes out Betts-Seager-Turner six straight times in six ABs in the World Series, don't let him face them again!

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right. And whatever you do, if Blake Snell strikes out Betts-Seager-Turner six straight times in six ABs in the World Series, don't let him face them again!

Huh?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right. And whatever you do, if Blake Snell strikes out Betts-Seager-Turner six straight times in six ABs in the World Series, don't let him face them again!

If he strikes those guys out in the WS then the dodgers have bigger problems since they are on the same team!

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If he strikes those guys out in the WS then the dodgers have bigger problems since they are on the same team!

Was referring to 2020 WS G6.

[notin]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's actually a league-wide philosophy.

Sacrifice bunts have steadily declined since 2010 with an even steeper decline since 2021.

You’d think the Ghost Runner might bring it back somewhat.

Although the 2021 date is easily explainable, as the NL officially adopted the DH in 2022.  Not like pitchers are good for anything else at the plate…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

You’d think the Ghost Runner might bring it back somewhat.

Although the 2021 date is easily explainable, as the NL officially adopted the DH in 2022.  Not like pitchers are good for anything else at the plate…

Agreed on all points

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I've recommended bringing up the prospects from day 1. With Casas having a bad start and now gone for the year, playing Campbell at first makes more sense than trading away our prospects for an existing first baseman.

At this point, I'd agree on anyone from Campbell, Mayer or Story at 1B over Toto- Sogard-Romy-Wong,

If playing Devers at 1B is to make room for Yoshida, I'd prefer all three over him, too.

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/12/2025 at 4:42 PM, moonslav59 said:

I've thought Campbell at 1B is the best option for over a week.

Calling up Mayer makes more sense than a DH timeshare, Anthony at DH or some sort of Refsnyder- ___ platoon at DH. 

C: Narvaez 

1B: Campbell

DH: Devers

2B: Story

SS: Mayer

3B: Bregman

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

Bench: Rafaela, Wong, Ref/Abreu, Romy (DHam?)

I like it.  

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I've recommended bringing up the prospects from day 1. With Casas having a bad start and now gone for the year, playing Campbell at first makes more sense than trading away our prospects for an existing first baseman.

Yup.