A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's not like story and campbell are lighting it up lately.

Campbell is 4-39 with 13 K’s in May.

[notin]

22 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It's not like story and campbell are lighting it up lately.

And it’s not like Mayer is guaranteed to do any better.  And certainly won’t fix any pitching issues.

I could see benching Story and replacing him with Mayer for multiple reasons, not only his recent slump but it’s also the only way the Sox could entice him into opting out (which is also not guaranteed).

Campbell? Let him play through it…

[jdc69]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Can you link that article?  Because something there doesn't make sense at all.

Here it is.

https://prospects365.com/2020/07/08/pitch-quality-3-times-through-the-order/

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

30 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is 4-39 with 13 K’s in May.

Exactly

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Here it is.

https://prospects365.com/2020/07/08/pitch-quality-3-times-through-the-order/

Thanks.  Some interesting research there.

However, this does nothing to support the idea that generally speaking you're better to leave the starter in for that third time, because even if the quality of pitches gets better, the stats bear out that the hitters' adapting to the pitches outweighs that factor.

To this point in 2025:

3rd time facing hitters by starting pitcher -.757 OPSa

1st time facing hitters by relief pitcher -.696 OPSa

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is 4-39 with 13 K’s in May.

Pretty common for rookies to start hot, then slump as the book gets out on them.  Now Campbell has to make his own adjustments.  

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pretty common for rookies to start hot, then slump as the book gets out on them.  Now Campbell has to make his own adjustments.  

Exactly.  Mayer and/or Anthony will very likely do the same thing at some point…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Exactly

Not quite 80 games. The Devers hot 2 weeks did not count, so why does KC's count?

[Old Red]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pretty common for rookies to start hot, then slump as the book gets out on them.  Now Campbell has to make his own adjustments.  

I agree, but I was just pointing out what he had done in May. Seems like it coincided when Cora decided to bat him cleanup. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not quite 80 games. The Devers hot 2 weeks did not count, so why does KC's count?

All he simply said was he wasn't lighting it up lately.

[Larry Cook]

Last night abreau mistimed his leap had the ball hit off the heel of his glove and rafeala bare hand catches the ball!!! Crazy!!!  
Defense is important guys!!! 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

So how do Anthony and Mayer fix this club?

They could create some fan enthusiasm, which is certainly good.  But do they put a product on the field more capable of winning?  Because right now, there are a lot posts saying “This bullpen is AWFUL!! So we need a new outfielder!!”

Mayer would replace 0.0 fWAR Story. Anthony would go into the OF rotation and maybe fit in at 4th where nobody has been able to hit all year. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

All he simply said was he wasn't lighting it up lately.

Nothing matters until it's 80 games... LOL.

[oldtimer]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pretty common for rookies to start hot, then slump as the book gets out on them.  Now Campbell has to make his own adjustments.  

Is it better to keep using guys who have a low success rate and who have played from opening day or to try rookies who are decent in the field and are lighting it up at the plate? It's kind of the old story, continuing to do the same thing while expecting different results. I am for shaking things up with both the players and possibly the manager. It isn't working.

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pretty common for rookies to start hot, then slump as the book gets out on them.  Now Campbell has to make his own adjustments.  

Baseball is a game of adjustments 

[moonslav59]

I'm not for trading a top prospect, but do you trade Mayer or Anthony plus Wong to MIL for Wm Contreras (2 more years of control) & Hoskins ($18M option in '26?)

How about Rafaela and Wong for Hoskins, Haase and $10M of the $22M owed Hoskins? Call up Anthony and move Duran to CF.

(I'd say no to both.)

Any better ideas?

 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading a top prospect, but do you trade Mayer or Anthony plus Wong to MIL for Wm Contreras (2 more years of control) & Hoskins ($18M option in '26?)

How about Rafaela and Wong for Hoskins, Haase and $10M of the $22M owed Hoskins? Call up Anthony and move Duran to CF.

(I'd say no to both.)

Any better ideas?

 

I don’t see someone like Mayer, or Anthony being traded unless a young SP like Crochet is coming back.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see someone like Mayer, or Anthony being traded unless a young SP like Crochet is coming back.

Agreed, and while a top catcher with 3 years of control is nice, it's not worth it. Narvaez is looking like a steal, so far, as well.

[moonslav59]

I doubt we make any major trades, and if we do, it will be near the deadline or next winter.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we make any major trades, and if we do, it will be near the deadline or next winter.

I think an unexciting 1b option might be in the near future.  Reportedly they inquired about some surging AAA hitters on the older side of prospect status, like Phillies 3b Otto Kemp and White Sox 1b Tim Elko (since called up)…

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading a top prospect, but do you trade Mayer or Anthony plus Wong to MIL for Wm Contreras (2 more years of control) & Hoskins ($18M option in '26?)

How about Rafaela and Wong for Hoskins, Haase and $10M of the $22M owed Hoskins? Call up Anthony and move Duran to CF.

(I'd say no to both.)

Any better ideas?

 

I would never make those trades, even if Brewers GM Pat Murphy kidnapped my family and made them ransom demands.

Hoskins seems likely to acquire on his own.  BTV gives him a negative trade value, which makes him a straight salary dump for Milwaukee.  Of course the Brewers, like the Sox, are only 4 GB and might not start unloading players so readily…

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading a top prospect, but do you trade Mayer or Anthony plus Wong to MIL for Wm Contreras (2 more years of control) & Hoskins ($18M option in '26?)

How about Rafaela and Wong for Hoskins, Haase and $10M of the $22M owed Hoskins? Call up Anthony and move Duran to CF.

(I'd say no to both.)

Any better ideas?

 

No. C'mon man. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

I think an unexciting 1b option might be in the near future.  Reportedly they inquired about some surging AAA hitters on the older side of prospect status, like Phillies 3b Otto Kemp and White Sox 1b Tim Elko (since called up)…

There are ways to make a trade for a 1b. It just won't excite the fanbase.

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer would replace 0.0 fWAR Story. Anthony would go into the OF rotation and maybe fit in at 4th where nobody has been able to hit all year. 

I could see Mayer replacing Story, who has fallen off a Cliff recently.  I doubt they bring up Anthony without an outfielder injury or Devers actually moving to 1b…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There are ways to make a trade for a 1b. It just won't excite the fanbase.

Exactly, which is why I keep mentioning 5’1” Andrew Vaughn…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

I could see Mayer replacing Story, who has fallen off a Cliff recently.  I doubt they bring up Anthony without an outfielder injury or Devers actually moving to 1b…

Problem being: Anthony has more AAA ab's and is outperforming Mayer. 🙃

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Exactly, which is why I keep mentioning 5’1” Andrew Vaughn…

It happened again. By the time he gets to Boston he'll look like Mike Teavee!

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It happened again. By the time he gets to Boston he'll look like Mike Teavee!

61 more mentions and I will have posted him out of existence…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

61 more mentions and I will have posted him out of existence…

He'll have a great k zone for a little while! 

[Maxbialystock]

23 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Thanks.  Some interesting research there.

However, this does nothing to support the idea that generally speaking you're better to leave the starter in for that third time, because even if the quality of pitches gets better, the stats bear out that the hitters' adapting to the pitches outweighs that factor.

To this point in 2025:

3rd time facing hitters by starting pitcher -.757 OPSa

1st time facing hitters by relief pitcher -.696 OPSa

Of course I agree that the hitter benefits from facing a pitcher for the 3d time.  However, those two OPS's don't seem very far apart to me.  I think almost all managers are aware of the third time through the lineup challenge, but also consider other trends by that pitcher in that game as well as in past games that season.  It's actually a good thing when a starter successfuly pitches 5, 6, 7, or even 8 or 9 innings.   

The genius of the movie Moneyball is that it's based on a season and team that really happened.  Thus are we compelled to agree with the John Henry character who recounts how little the A's paid for each win in 2002 in comparison to the Yankees.  Near the end of the movie he raises sabermetrics to the level of holy writ and condemns all the scouts and managers in the known universe for relying on judgment.

I love stats.  We all do.  But there is still room for baseball judgment.