What qualifying offer for Nick Pivetta means for the Red Sox off-season

[smokedogg1982]

What does the Red Sox extension of a q/o to Nick Pivetta say about the off-season plans?

[Tedballgame]

It means an average pitcher like Pivetta is going to make 21 million next year.

[Duran Is The Man]

insane.

[moonslav59]

Makes Pablo Lopez look better and better.

So, Pivetta says yes, and that likely means we spend nothing more on the rotation, right?

Let's hope we spend on the pen.

As bad as our pen was, this year, it did look like Brez made an effort to build it up- more for 2025 than 2024:

Hendriks and Fulmer.

Young pitchers like Slaten, Sandlin, Fitts, Criswell, Judice and others like I Campbell, Weissert and later, Priester.

Some did not work well. Some did so poorly, I did not list them, but he made an effort.

Bloom made a big effort in 2023 with Jansen & Martin.

We need a big investment for 2025's pen.

[Larry Cook]

Two bullpen arms are badly needed. One lefty and one righty. Stash some arms at Worcester so when guys get dead arms, we have fresh arms waiting 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox want to keep Pivetta, they're going to have to at least give him the same amount they're paying Giolito (who has yet to throw a pitch for Boston): two years at around $40 million.

Eovaldi also turned down a $20 mil player option, so he'll want at least two for $40...

... but both are probably looking for three-year contracts and closer to $60 -- or at least Wacha money (3 for $51).

Signing several legitimate starters like Pivetta, Eovaldi and maybe Manaea or Severino may be preferable to Breslow and Co. rather than splurging on one big-timer like Fried, who Jim Bowden predicts will get around $174 million for six years.

 

[Hugh2]

There's a chance he declines.  If a team would pay him 50 million or so, he will take that pay day. 

He could also work out an extension with the Sox.  Something around 3/$40 seems fair. 

I hope this is a sign they're willing to spend, although I suppose they could be offering the QO to kill his market and sign him for less AAV because they're a bunch of cheapos and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Scott were never on their radar and it's a sign they will continue to be cheapos. 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know what it means.  Last year I thought when we traded a certain left-handed starter it meant we were going to acquire a TOTR stud.  

I do know if they run back the same rotation as last year it will not be the ideal scenario for Sox fans.

 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

What does the Red Sox extension of a q/o to Nick Pivetta say about the off-season plans?

Unknown at this time. Too many variables at play. 

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

There's a chance he declines.  If a team would pay him 50 million or so, he will take that pay day. 

He could also work out an extension with the Sox.  Something around 3/$40 seems fair. 

I hope this is a sign they're willing to spend, although I suppose they could be offering the QO to kill his market and sign him for less AAV because they're a bunch of cheapos and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Scott were never on their radar and it's a sign they will continue to be cheapos. 

I think that AAV is too low to move on from the QO. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know what it means.  Last year I thought when we traded a certain left-handed starter it meant we were going to acquire a TOTR stud.  

I do know if they run back the same rotation as last year it will not be the ideal scenario for Sox fans.

 

Yes, it's hard to really comment until we fully know what the rotation looks like when they head to pitchers and catchers in Feb. 

[Nick]

13 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

insane.

I'd fire Bres.

 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Nick said:

I'd fire Bres.

 

Now that's a fiery start to the offseason! 🙂

[Hugh2]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that AAV is too low to move on from the QO. 

Players are getting between 6-6.7 million per war (not taking in this year).  Which puts Pivetta at about $12-$13 million per year.  He takes it if he likes Boston, he rejects it if a team wants to maximize his pay day and a team gives him a 4th year.  I don't think 4/50 is off the table for a team that really likes him. 

Of course, he has to accept of reject the Q.O. first.   If that money is out there for him he may reject it, if it's not then he may just take the $21 million if he thinks he do better next year. 

This is why it's probably in the Sox best interest to not throw numbers around with him until he either accepts or rejects the offer. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Players are getting between 6-6.7 million per war (not taking in this year).

6-6.7 is actually light.  

Pivetta had a 2.0 fWAR in 2024, and this was converted to 16.2 million, so 8.1.

It's important to note that this is just a calculation of the average COST of a free agent player per WAR.  It has nothing to do with what we perceive as actual value.  It factors in all the busts.  

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Two bullpen arms are badly needed. One lefty and one righty. Stash some arms at Worcester so when guys get dead arms, we have fresh arms waiting 

I agree, our AAA pen should be 8 guys that pitched for the BOS club, this year:

Guerrero & Penrod

Weissert, I Campbell, Bernardino, Kelly, Booser & Shugart.

The MLB pen could be... (w minimum of 2 additions)

__ Closer TBD___

Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten (set-up)

__LH RP TBD___, Criswell, Wink, Fulmer (mid/long men)

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:6-6.7 is actually light.  

Pivetta had a 2.0 fWAR in 2024, and this was converted to 16.2 million, so 8.1.

It's important to note that this is just a calculation of the average COST of a free agent player per WAR.  It has nothing to do with what we perceive as actual value.  It factors in all the busts.  

You guys crack me up with all this fWAR talk. Very simply put Pivetta was an OK pitcher for $7.5M, but i wouldn’t want Nothing to do with him for $20M+. Like Brez has said if you offer someone a QO be prepared for them to take it.

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

6-6.7 is actually light.  

Pivetta had a 2.0 fWAR in 2024, and this was converted to 16.2 million, so 8.1.

It's important to note that this is just a calculation of the average COST of a free agent player per WAR.  It has nothing to do with what we perceive as actual value.  It factors in all the busts.  

That's exactly what it is.  I take the contracts given and divide it by a players average WAR the last few years.  So I'm actually weighing what they are being paid in real dollars by real MLB teams by FWAR.  SO it actually has everything to do with market value. 

Players, generally speaking are getting around 6-6.5 million dollars per FWar.  There are exceptions, but this is largely true.

 

EDIT: it would be very light for Pivetta if he accepts the offer and plays for $20.1 million dollars, or $21 million or whatever it is.   He would be the exception, and as we can see there's a circumstance attached to that acceptation (a guy who took a QO)

[moonslav59]

It's not too late to get Nick to accept an extension at something like $35M/2 or $48M/3.

[vjcsmoke]

21 million dollars for a bad to mediocre pitcher in Pivetta. 4.14 ERA, 6-12. If you wonder why we don't have money to sign any good players? We pay big salaries to players who barely scrape by as passable. Unless the Red Sox believe someone will now give up a draft pick to sign Pivetta, this move is a real head scratcher.

[vjcsmoke]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox want to keep Pivetta, they're going to have to at least give him the same amount they're paying Giolito (who has yet to throw a pitch for Boston): two years at around $40 million.

Eovaldi also turned down a $20 mil player option, so he'll want at least two for $40...

... but both are probably looking for three-year contracts and closer to $60 -- or at least Wacha money (3 for $51).

Signing several legitimate starters like Pivetta, Eovaldi and maybe Manaea or Severino may be preferable to Breslow and Co. rather than splurging on one big-timer like Fried, who Jim Bowden predicts will get around $174 million for six years.

 

We wasted 40 million and haven't had a single pitch from Giolito. What another terrible free agent mistake. Do they not do their medicals any more?

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

21 million dollars for a bad to mediocre pitcher in Pivetta. 4.14 ERA, 6-12. If you wonder why we don't have money to sign any good players? We pay big salaries to players who barely scrape by as passable. Unless the Red Sox believe someone will now give up a draft pick to sign Pivetta, this move is a real head scratcher.

Better ERA, FIP, WHIP than Bello has ever had. 

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi has only thrown 150+ innings 3 times in the 14 years he's been in MLB. He is a very high variance pitcher. It would be fun to have him back, but at some point he's going to really fall off due to health issues. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not too late to get Nick to accept an extension at something like $35M/2 or $48M/3.

Right, and I do kind of hope that's what this is about.

Pivetta is a lot like Porcello was.  Nobody gets excited about them (except Porcello in 2016 and Pivetta on one of his really hot spells) but they do come in handy quite often.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vjcsmoke said:

21 million dollars for a bad to mediocre pitcher in Pivetta. 4.14 ERA, 6-12. If you wonder why we don't have money to sign any good players? We pay big salaries to players who barely scrape by as passable. Unless the Red Sox believe someone will now give up a draft pick to sign Pivetta, this move is a real head scratcher.

He had a 103 ERA+ with the Sox, career and in 2014. That means he was better than average. I don't get the bad part of "bad to mediocre." (He had a 108 ERA+ from 2023-2024.)

Only 52 pitchers had more IP than Pivetta, since 2023. His 93 ERA- beats Pablo Lopez, Nola, Manaea, Bassitt, Cease & kikuchi. It's almost as good as Bryce Miller, Nate and Castillo. One could argue he's better than mediocre.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He had a 103 ERA+ with the Sox, career and in 2014. That means he was better than average. I don't get the bad part of "bad to mediocre." (He had a 108 ERA+ from 2023-2024.)

Only 52 pitchers had more IP than Pivetta, since 2023. His 93 ERA- beats Pablo Lopez, Nola, Manaea, Bassitt, Cease & kikuchi. It's almost as good as Bryce Miller, Nate and Castillo. One could argue he's better than mediocre.

Is 52 pitchers over a two year stretch really a small number to be trailing?

[notin]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Better ERA, FIP, WHIP than Bello has ever had. 

Also bigger age than Bello has ever had…

[notin]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox want to keep Pivetta, they're going to have to at least give him the same amount they're paying Giolito (who has yet to throw a pitch for Boston): two years at around $40 million.

Eovaldi also turned down a $20 mil player option, so he'll want at least two for $40...

... but both are probably looking for three-year contracts and closer to $60 -- or at least Wacha money (3 for $51).

Signing several legitimate starters like Pivetta, Eovaldi and maybe Manaea or Severino may be preferable to Breslow and Co. rather than splurging on one big-timer like Fried, who Jim Bowden predicts will get around $174 million for six years.

 

Manaea and Severino were equally questionable QO recipients.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this meant a multi year deal was in store for Pivetta and the QO was just to keep other teams at bay…

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Also bigger age than Bello has ever had…

Taller and weighs more too. 

[smokedogg1982]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know what it means.  Last year I thought when we traded a certain left-handed starter it meant we were going to acquire a TOTR stud.  

I do know if they run back the same rotation as last year it will not be the ideal scenario for Sox fans.

 

That is my fear. They will make no moves to drastically improve the 2025 team. I hope I my fears are unfounded.