What qualifying offer for Nick Pivetta means for the Red Sox off-season

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Couple of ex-big leaguers and now blab hosts on MLB Sirius today said Pivetta could be a Cy Young winner one of these years! 

Like the Red Sox would ever let a guy like that get away...

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Couple of ex-big leaguers and now blab hosts on MLB Sirius today said Pivetta could be a Cy Young winner one of these years! 

Like the Red Sox would ever let a guy like that get away...

Uh????????????????

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Is 52 pitchers over a two year stretch really a small number to be trailing?

Not small, but not as big as a "bad to mediocre" pitcher might put up.

If there are 150 pitchers in a rotation in MLB, at any given time, 52 is a pretty decent number.

His ERA+ and ERA- show he is mediocre to better, not to the worse.

I think some posters forget just how bad most pitchers are. I'd say at least 60% are worse than Pivetta. That's not great, but it's also not "bad."

I egt the point, though: to win, we need better than 5 Pivettas.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Couple of ex-big leaguers and now blab hosts on MLB Sirius today said Pivetta could be a Cy Young winner one of these years! 

Like the Red Sox would ever let a guy like that get away...

 Bell mentioned the Porcello comp, and I like it.

I will say, Nick has had some pretty long stretches of pitching very well, maybe noy Cy Young well, but pretty damn good and for pretty damn long- just not a full season.

20 GS run in '22: 3.62 (3.73 FIP) .677 OPS Against (3.85/4.04 over 25 games)

29 Gms (8GS) in '23 (May 24 to end of '23) 3.14/3.33 (.600 OPS Against)

16 GS to start '24: 3.81/3.54 (.668 OPS Against)

None of these streaks are Cy Young worthy, but I'm not sure Porcello had any runs like that before his Cy Young year. (Note: I'm not predicting a great year.)

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

That is my fear. They will make no moves to drastically improve the 2025 team. I hope I my fears are unfounded.

First move is a QO to pivetta. Is our team improved 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

First move is a QO to pivetta. Is our team improved 

Two ways to look at this Q:

1. Would we be better without Pivetta? (Probably no.)

2. Keeping Pivetta is just keeping status quo on a .500 team. (Yes)

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Two ways to look at this Q:

1. Would we be better without Pivetta? (Probably no.)

2. Keeping Pivetta is just keeping status quo on a .500 team. (Yes)

We certainly aren't better by subtracting Pivetta, my concern is we have what he is.  We have #3-#5 rotation spots locked down with guys who can fill in.  The team desperately needs front line starting pitching, if he's taking up a spot along with:

Bello/Houck/Giolito/Crawford how much room do they have to add to that? It's still reasonable they could add one premium name to that list but I suppose I shouldn't be surprised my dream of adding two has been crushed. 

Guys like Criswell/Whitlock/Fitts/Winckowski are also in the mix, but they seem more likely to be easily slid into the bullpen, 6th starter/innings eater role. 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Two ways to look at this Q:

1. Would we be better without Pivetta? (Probably no.)

2. Keeping Pivetta is just keeping status quo on a .500 team. (Yes)

Are they worse without Pivetta? Debatable. 

[mvp 78]

Porcello won the CY Young by 5 voting points, but Verlander had more first place votes and probably should have received the trophy that year. Verlander was left off of the ballot on two ballots (not BOS voters, but by the two TB voters who each put Porcello 1). 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Porcello won the CY Young by 5 voting points, but Verlander had more first place votes and probably should have received the trophy that year. Verlander was left off of the ballot on two ballots (not BOS voters, but by the two TB voters who each put Porcello 1). 

You can also argue Chris Sale should have won the Cy-Young before Porcello that year as well. 

He had an amazing year that year though, and certainly pitched like an ACE, but that was a career year. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You can also argue Chris Sale should have won the Cy-Young before Porcello that year as well. 

He had an amazing year that year though, and certainly pitched like an ACE, but that was a career year. 

He received ZERO first place votes!!!!!

Kluber got 3 and Britton (47 saves, 0.54 ERA) got 5.

In retrospect, I'd probably go:

1. Verlander

2. Kluber

3. Sale

4. Rick Porcello

5. Britton

Verlander, Kluber and Sale all had really great seasons. 

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He received ZERO first place votes!!!!!

Kluber got 3 and Britton (47 saves, 0.54 ERA) got 5.

In retrospect, I'd probably go:

1. Verlander

2. Kluber

3. Sale

4. Rick Porcello

5. Britton

Verlander, Kluber and Sale all had really great seasons. 

Kluber and Porcello were close.  If you go by FWar (if you believe in that sort of thing) Kluber had a 4.9 FWar to Porcellos 5.1   Porcello had 8 more innings, which might make up the difference, they were almost identical in value. 

 

Quintana had a really good season that year as well. 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

We certainly aren't better by subtracting Pivetta, my concern is we have what he is.  We have #3-#5 rotation spots locked down with guys who can fill in.  The team desperately needs front line starting pitching, if he's taking up a spot along with:

Bello/Houck/Giolito/Crawford how much room do they have to add to that? It's still reasonable they could add one premium name to that list but I suppose I shouldn't be surprised my dream of adding two has been crushed. 

Guys like Criswell/Whitlock/Fitts/Winckowski are also in the mix, but they seem more likely to be easily slid into the bullpen, 6th starter/innings eater role. 

I agree, and although it's nice having rotation depth, with several 3-4-5 types, we NEED a #1, or a solid #2 at worst.

I fear this is it for the rotation, and maybe we go hard to fix the pen. That is no easy task. Adding Hendriks & Fulmer is barely a blip, and doesn't come near replacing Jansen & Martin. We need at least 2 major pen additions, with one being LH'd.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Porcello won the CY Young by 5 voting points, but Verlander had more first place votes and probably should have received the trophy that year. Verlander was left off of the ballot on two ballots (not BOS voters, but by the two TB voters who each put Porcello 1). 

If Pivetta can finish in 5th place in the Cy Young Award in '25, I'll be happy and see the comp with Porcello as pretty valid.

[Hugh2]

Some good LHP relievers on the market are A.J. Minter and Matthew Boyd.

I wouldn't mind one of those guys plus Max Fried. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Are they worse without Pivetta? Debatable. 

2024 fWAR:

Houck 3.9

Pivetta 2.0

Bello 2.0

Crawford 1.9

We really did have a #2 and 3 #3's.

As to your question, if you delete Pivetta you certainly could be worse off, if you don't replace with another #3. 

 

 

 

 

[notin]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Uh????????????????

Hey Porcello took one.  It just takes one year where everything falls together.

 

That said, if we set the over/under of Cy Young awards for Pivetta at 1, I still take the under…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2024 fWAR:

Houck 3.9

Pivetta 2.0

Bello 2.0

Crawford 1.9

We really did have a #2 and 3 #3's.

As to your question, if you delete Pivetta you certainly could be worse off, if you don't replace with another #3. 

I would assume Giolito would at least be a #3.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2024 fWAR:

Houck 3.9

Pivetta 2.0

Bello 2.0

Crawford 1.9

We really did have a #2 and 3 #3's.

As to your question, if you delete Pivetta you certainly could be worse off, if you don't replace with another #3. 

What worries me is that JH, Brez & Co. views it this way and thinks Gio is a #2 or #3. Two 2's and three 3's might be seen as a decent rotation.

I like to divide all MLB SP'ers into 5 categories (1-30, 31-60 and so on...,) but you have to set the IP at 70 to get a sample size of 150 SP'ers in 2024.

According to fWAR...

14. Houck (a solid #1)

T64. Bello (a top end #3)

T70. Crawford (mid level #3)

T76 Pivetta (middle of the pack #3.)

Gio was T #111 in 2023 (a #4) and #75 in 2022 (a solid #3.)

 

I really hope we sign or add a #1. Houck should be a decent #2. Bello, Crawford, Gio and Pivetta can all be a #3 or #4 and one would be a good #5 and the other, pretty good depth.

Criswell, Fitts, priester and Dobbins can be nice AAA depth, and Whit & Wink can spot start, if needed.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If Pivetta can finish in 5th place in the Cy Young Award in '25, I'll be happy and see the comp with Porcello as pretty valid.

If he gets one 5th place vote this year as a Red Sox, I'll learn how to drop in the bowl on a skateboard at the local skate park my son goes to. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he gets one 5th place vote this year as a Red Sox, I'll learn how to drop in the bowl on a skateboard at the local skate park my son goes to. 

And post the footage?!

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

And post the footage?!

Yes, but it would take a while for me to get to that point. 

1. I do have my own skateboard and have skated with my kids in the neighborhood. 

2. I did not learn to skate until I was in my mid 40's and am definitely NOT proficient. 

3. I can't currently drop in on the small half pipe with have in our garage and would not attempt it because I don't want to break my hip (I've heard that's how old people get put down). 

4. The bowl I'd drop in on is the 6', not the 8'. 

[notin]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, but it would take a while for me to get to that point. 

1. I do have my own skateboard and have skated with my kids in the neighborhood. 

2. I did not learn to skate until I was in my mid 40's and am definitely NOT proficient. 

3. I can't currently drop in on the small half pipe with have in our garage and would not attempt it because I don't want to break my hip (I've heard that's how old people get put down). 

4. The bowl I'd drop in on is the 6', not the 8'. 

I think I speak for everyone - something I’m normally hesitant to do but feel confident here - when I say we’d prefer to see the initial tries…

[moonslav59]

On 11/5/2024 at 2:30 PM, smokedogg1982 said:

That is my fear. They will make no moves to drastically improve the 2025 team. I hope I my fears are unfounded.

They are founded. 

We can hope things change, but expecting it is another thing.

It's all still a sham, until the actions show things have changed.

[mvp 78]

Sox have done enough since trading Mookie to not be trusted. They need to earn it back. Everything prior to 2019 is history, pal. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox have done enough since trading Mookie to not be trusted. The need to earn it back. Everything prior to 2019 is history, pal. 

I totally agree, and it seems like all of their significant moves were reactionary and not proactive or part of any comprehensive plan to build an increasing competitive team. The Story and Yoshida signings were poor attempts to convince the fans they cared. Keeping Devers looks like it was done just to quell a full-fledged revolt by Sox fans.

A big chunk of their mid level deals failed- some miserably, and that was before the Sale trade and Gio signing.

It's one thing to make serious attempts at improving, and failing. it's another thing to feign attempts or take half-measures to try and fool your customers (the fans) into thinking you care.