A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

23 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

What are our realistic chances of getting Sasaki with the dodgers and Mets out there 

only if he will take a 1 year deal

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with a few one year deals, especially if the guy is 37, but yes, if all we sign are one and dones, it won't be pretty.

it will be exactly what we have done the past 2-3 years

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They floated Adames and nobody really bit on it. I know Bregman, Fried and Burnes have been considered. 

I wonder if they end up just going with Alex Cobb (doesn't throw a 4 seamer) and Tyler O'Neilll? 

think Pivetta

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

think Pivetta

If the Sox miss out on Soto -- and right now, every GM, agent and reporter in the industry predicts they will --

but Pivetta and O'Neill get re-upped at longer and larger contracts, and Jansen/Martin morph into Chapman/Hendriks, Sam Kennedy will still say, "Look, we spent -- compared to last year..." 

And he'll keep a straight face.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

This issue is whether the consumer clicks on the MLBTR link so the original source accumulates hits that support higher advertising rates for the original source. ESPN is doing well despite fiscals ups and downs through the years but newspapers, which MLBTR cites frequently, have experienced significant financial struggles over the past three decades.

This is the humble opinion of a former newspaper journalist, journalism professor and attorney who taught 12 semesters of mass media law at the university level.

 

I get your point, but such is the way of media, today.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it will be exactly what we have done the past 2-3 years

We could very well keep up the sham, this winter.

I'm hoping we don't, and I do think we will sign at least 2 longer term contracts, this winter, but one year deals seems to be a big trend with our team, since DD left the house.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Sox miss out on Soto -- and right now, every GM, agent and reporter in the industry predicts they will --

but Pivetta and O'Neill get re-upped at longer and larger contracts, and Jansen/Martin morph into Chapman/Hendriks, Sam Kennedy will still say, "Look, we spent -- compared to last year..." 

And he'll keep a straight face.

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it.

Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not.

If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in."

That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it.

Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not.

If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in."

That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident. 

For decades the Red Sox didn't win it all, but fans always felt the team would try by identifying areas of need and upgrading every offseason.

But since the Bloom Era began -- when the org wouldn't pay Mookie Betts half of what they're offering a worse player this winter -- the plan has shifted to just doing what they can to get by: stuff the jerseys with bodies, send them out on the diamond, and field a nine so they can play the games and sell tickets.

Fans aren't fools, and after five years of this crap will only believe again if and when Breslow and Co. actually UPGRADE -- and not slide sideways (cough, Wilson, cough Chapman) -- in the starting rotation, in the bullpen, in the batting order, and on defense.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

think Pivetta

He's going to get too much money for not enough return. Pass. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For decades the Red Sox didn't win it all, but fans always felt the team would try by identifying areas of need and upgrading every offseason.

But since the Bloom Era began -- when the org wouldn't pay Mookie Betts half of what they're offering a worse player this winter -- the plan has shifted to just doing what they can to get by: stuff the jerseys with bodies, send them out on the diamond, and field a nine so they can play the games and sell tickets.

Fans aren't fools, and after five years of this crap will only believe again if and when Breslow and Co. actually UPGRADE -- and not slide sideways (cough, Wilson, cough Chapman) -- in the starting rotation, in the bullpen, in the batting order, and on defense.

Signing the Wilsons of the world to pitch the 6th inning isn't the problem. Signing Chapman is really dumb. Letting Soto go elsewhere will be really dumb. Not getting a TOTR starter will be really dumb. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For decades the Red Sox didn't win it all, but fans always felt the team would try by identifying areas of need and upgrading every offseason.

But since the Bloom Era began -- when the org wouldn't pay Mookie Betts half of what they're offering a worse player this winter -- the plan has shifted to just doing what they can to get by: stuff the jerseys with bodies, send them out on the diamond, and field a nine so they can play the games and sell tickets.

Fans aren't fools, and after five years of this crap will only believe again if and when Breslow and Co. actually UPGRADE -- and not slide sideways (cough, Wilson, cough Chapman) -- in the starting rotation, in the bullpen, in the batting order, and on defense.

For the 3+ decades I followed the Sox before JH, I always felt like ownership did "just enough" to keep the fans involved and thinking we had a chance, and we did a few years, but we never took that one or two extra steps to make it more of a surety. I don't think we were ever preseason favorites until the JH era.

It seemed like we were, many times, an ace away from being a top two or three contender. I seemed we lucked into Tiant, who brought us oh-so-close. The farm brought us to 1986, not any key signing. It wasn't until Dan D brought us Manny & Pedro, and then JH made that extra move of getting us Schilling that sealed the deal. He also got us key pieces like Foulke & Mueller, and later Beckett, Lowell and others, who all made us top 3-4 contenders for many years, even some we bombed out.

Under the DD era we saw what could be viewed as overkill building the 2018 roster, and we had damn good rosters in 2016 and 2017, too. (Even 2019 was very nice, on paper.) Then, poof.

Jh had cut back, several times, in the past, but not to this extent and for this long a period. Some of his major signings, like extensions to Sale, Nate and Devers, plus FA signings like Story and Yoshida fell short of replacing who we lost due to aging or money choices.

Now, we have a pretty nice core of young players, of which only Houck, Duran and Crawford have just started their arb years. We have a great set of prospects that are near ML ready and another set behind them that should be top 100 in a year or two and ML ready in 2-4 years. We are clearly at a place where 2-3 major additions can get us near the top 4-7 contender area and maybe 3-5 key additions away from being a top 2-4 contender.

I guess some disagree, but that is my opinion, and I feel we should get even stronger as our young players mature and our prospects make an impact. The time is now. Don't blow the window or shorten it by "waiting until next year!"

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's going to get too much money for not enough return. Pass. 

It seems to be the way the market is heading. He should get what the market sets.

While bringing him back reeks of standing pat, there is no comp pick attached to signing him, like there is for others, although we would lose the comp pick we would have gotten had someone else signed him, so I guess that evens out.

The Pivetta of 2023-2024 looked a lot better than the 2020-2022 one, and way better than the guy with Philly, but he did lose the starting role, in the middle of this 2 year stretch.

Pivetta

2021-2022: 4.54 (97 ERA+/4.35 FIP)

2023-2024: 4.09 (108 ERA+/4.02 FIP)

OPS Against 2021>2024: 734> 753> .685> .716

Since 2023, only 52 MLB pitchers had more IP (288) than Pivetta, and out of 79 pitchers with 250+ IP, he placed:

4th in SIERA at 3.32

18th in xFIP at 3.52

38th in ERA- at 93

If we get the sample size to 150 pitchers by dropping the IP to 160 IP, he placed: 5th in SIERA, 21st in xFIP and 64th ERA- (77th in ERA is about 50-50)

He is likely better than Bello, Crawford and Gio, but we need to upgrade our #1 SP'er and NOT our #3-4-5's.

I'd be happy with Fried and Pivetta and push someone to the pen, which really needs help. Something like just Pivetta and Hoffman would fall way short of our needs.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it.

Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not.

If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in."

That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident. 

i have been thinking essentially the same thing. Henry HAS to do something or it's all over for him. as a fan, i'm sick of his f***ing around and not doing anything to upgrade the team.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems to be the way the market is heading. He should get what the market sets.

While bringing him back reeks of standing pat, there is no comp pick attached to signing him, like there is for others, although we would lose the comp pick we would have gotten had someone else signed him, so I guess that evens out.

The Pivetta of 2023-2024 looked a lot better than the 2020-2022 one, and way better than the guy with Philly, but he did lose the starting role, in the middle of this 2 year stretch.

Pivetta

2021-2022: 4.54 (97 ERA+/4.35 FIP)

2023-2024: 4.09 (108 ERA+/4.02 FIP)

OPS Against 2021>2024: 734> 753> .685> .716

Since 2023, only 52 MLB pitchers had more IP (288) than Pivetta, and out of 79 pitchers with 250+ IP, he placed:

4th in SIERA at 3.32

18th in xFIP at 3.52

38th in ERA- at 93

If we get the sample size to 150 pitchers by dropping the IP to 160 IP, he placed: 5th in SIERA, 21st in xFIP and 64th ERA- (77th in ERA is about 50-50)

He is likely better than Bello, Crawford and Gio, but we need to upgrade our #1 SP'er and NOT our #3-4-5's.

I'd be happy with Fried and Pivetta and push someone to the pen, which really needs help. Something like just Pivetta and Hoffman would fall way short of our needs.

 

some players are worth overpaying for. Pivetta is not one of them.

[Larry Cook]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

some players are worth overpaying for. Pivetta is not one of them.

Who is worth paying extra for?? 

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 1.2 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 0.7.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=36

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.0 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.5.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=39

While we're at it, the Mariners hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of 1.6 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of negative 2.3..

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=37

Sounds like 2 teams that need to improve in order to be a playoff contender.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Who is worth paying extra for?? 

Juan Soto 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Who is worth paying extra for?? 

We are. The loyal diehard fans who fund their favorite teams deserve to have the clubs pay and establish new market prices for top talent.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We could very well keep up the sham, this winter.

I'm hoping we don't, and I do think we will sign at least 2 longer term contracts, this winter, but one year deals seems to be a big trend with our team, since DD left the house.

Scared money

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it.

Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not.

If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in."

That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident. 

Not everyone will see through it. My phone will blow up with hip hip hoorays. Lot of easy to please fans , at least here in Providence

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it.

Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not.

If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in."

That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident. 

For sure. You come away with no top tier free agents and it will be more of the same.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

some players are worth overpaying for. Pivetta is not one of them.

In conjunction with others, maybe, but not as the best SP'er we sign.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not everyone will see through it. My phone will blow up with hip hip hoorays. Lot of easy to please fans , at least here in Providence

I think a large percentage of Sox fans are already aware of the sham taking place for 3-5 years, now.

They might be blinded by one signing, like Burnes or Fried, and precious little else, but I'm not sure how many would fall for just that. It worked a little with the Story, then Yoshida, then Devers deals, but the scam is exposed, IMO.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems to be the way the market is heading. He should get what the market sets.

While bringing him back reeks of standing pat, there is no comp pick attached to signing him, like there is for others, although we would lose the comp pick we would have gotten had someone else signed him, so I guess that evens out.

The Pivetta of 2023-2024 looked a lot better than the 2020-2022 one, and way better than the guy with Philly, but he did lose the starting role, in the middle of this 2 year stretch.

Pivetta

2021-2022: 4.54 (97 ERA+/4.35 FIP)

2023-2024: 4.09 (108 ERA+/4.02 FIP)

OPS Against 2021>2024: 734> 753> .685> .716

Since 2023, only 52 MLB pitchers had more IP (288) than Pivetta, and out of 79 pitchers with 250+ IP, he placed:

4th in SIERA at 3.32

18th in xFIP at 3.52

38th in ERA- at 93

If we get the sample size to 150 pitchers by dropping the IP to 160 IP, he placed: 5th in SIERA, 21st in xFIP and 64th ERA- (77th in ERA is about 50-50)

He is likely better than Bello, Crawford and Gio, but we need to upgrade our #1 SP'er and NOT our #3-4-5's.

I'd be happy with Fried and Pivetta and push someone to the pen, which really needs help. Something like just Pivetta and Hoffman would fall way short of our needs.

 

74th in HR/FB%

73rd in HR/9

7th most in FB%

69th in IFFB%

5th highest in Hard Contact %

Since Pivetta gives up TANKS, his xFIP can be ignored as it uses an MLB average of HR's allowed rather than Pivetta's actual HR's allowed in the calculation (unlike FIP). That's why his FIP is closer to his ERA and his xFIP is way lower. xFIP assumes that he'll stop giving up bombs, but he has a history of being a guy who gives up more HR's than an average MLB pitcher. He has a great k/bb%, but just gives up loud contact that often reaches the bleachers. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

74th in HR/FB%

73rd in HR/9

7th most in FB%

69th in IFFB%

5th highest in Hard Contact %

Since Pivetta gives up TANKS, his xFIP can be ignored as it uses an MLB average of HR's allowed rather than Pivetta's actual HR's allowed in the calculation (unlike FIP). That's why his FIP is closer to his ERA and his xFIP is way lower. xFIP assumes that he'll stop giving up bombs, but he has a history of being a guy who gives up more HR's than an average MLB pitcher. He has a great k/bb%, but just gives up loud contact that often reaches the bleachers. 

Good stuff. I did not know that about "X" FIP. Giving up bombs has been a big issue with our staff, of late, including some of the guys I suggested Pivetta was better than in our current rotation set-up.

Is it worth paying big money to slightly improve our 4 or 5 slot? I'd say no, but if we miss out on Soto, we need to make up for it in more areas than just adding Fried, Hoffman, a  RHB and a catcher.

Of course, I'd rather do better than Pivetta, even if we add Fried or Burnes. Adding Scott or Hoffman would make more sense and be cheaper. Having two guys, Pivetta and Crawford, in the rotation with a 1/7 HR/9 rate is two too many.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good stuff. I did not know that about "X" FIP. Giving up bombs has been a big issue with our staff, of late, including some of the guys I suggested Pivetta was better than in our current rotation set-up.

Is it worth paying big money to slightly improve our 4 or 5 slot? I'd say no, but if we miss out on Soto, we need to make up for it in more areas than just adding Fried, Hoffman, a  RHB and a catcher.

Of course, I'd rather do better than Pivetta, even if we add Fried or Burnes. Adding Scott or Hoffman would make more sense and be cheaper. Having two guys, Pivetta and Crawford, in the rotation with a 1/7 HR/9 rate is two too many.

Pivetta for 20M for another year isn't a big deal. For another 3? Nah. I'm good. It's time to turn the page here. 

I think the Sox should get high end FA talent for the rotation. They are clearly able to develop a bunch of 4/5's internally and possibly will have more soon (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Early). 

[moonslav59]

If we don't get Burnes at a cost of about $29M x 7 or Fried, who may cost $28M x 6, besides trading for someone, not many look to be all that much better than Pivetta.

Here in MLBTR's top SP'ers with estimates +about $1M a year:

$24M x 5 Flaherty

$23M x 2 Nate

$21M x 3 Manaea

$20M x 3 Pivetta (MLBTR has $21M x 1)

$18M x 3 Severino

Nope: $16M x 1 Scherzer, $15M x 1 Buehler, $13M x 1 Verlander, Gibson or Bieber

(Nope: $13M x 2 Heaney or $10M x 2 Quintana)

Nobody jumps out as being much of an improvement over losing Pivetta. Nate looks good, but his age and injury history are worse than Nick's.

I'd rather have Nick than nobody, and he's pretty close to everyone on this list.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think a large percentage of Sox fans are already aware of the sham taking place for 3-5 years, now.

They might be blinded by one signing, like Burnes or Fried, and precious little else, but I'm not sure how many would fall for just that. It worked a little with the Story, then Yoshida, then Devers deals, but the scam is exposed, IMO.

You are probably right, Im mostly think of a couple of personal friends who are extremely optimistic year after year about all their favorite teams.

Their exuberance over the last few deadlines was....homerish (I know, I know)

[moonslav59]

Even if we sign Soto, I won't be able to avoid asking, "Why didn't we just extend Betts for half that cost?"

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if we sign Soto, I won't be able to avoid asking, "Why didn't we just extend Betts for half that cost?"

Betts was 2 years older at the start of his extension than Soto will be at the start of his contract.

But that sure doesn't account for a $300 million difference, does it