A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yuck!

My problem with it is more moral over performance based. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

My problem with it is more moral over performance based. 

Combo of both, plus former Yankee with those two issues attached. Just gross all around.

[moonslav59]

It seems that Chapman does not really have to be better than 2021 to 2024 to think it was an okay deal.

He turns 37, before the season starts.

These numbers suggest he has not shown steady decline after reaching age 33.

OPS Against

.678 in 2021

.654 in 2022

.558 in 2023

.636 in 2024

K/BB: 2.6>1.5>2.9>2.5

FIP: 3.99> .4.57> 2.52> 3.04

2021-2024 combined: 3.60 ERA (118 ERA+)

3.41 FIP

1.33 WHIP

14.4 K/9 but 6.0 BB/9 is frightening.(just 6 hits per 9 with a 0.9 HR/9.)

[Bellhorn04]

As a closer, he's a cardiac event. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As a closer, he's a cardiac event. 

6 BB/9 over the last 4 years is shocking.

6 hits per 9 helps keep those runners from scoring, but yes...

Heart attack city.

I'm guessing they are making him the closer.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

6 BB/9 over the last 4 years is shocking.

6 hits per 9 helps keep those runners from scoring, but yes...

Heart attack city.

I'm guessing they are making him the closer.

😩

[moonslav59]

If Chapman as the closer and Wilson as the lefty mid-inning guy ares a sign of things to come, I'm not impressed, at all.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Chapman as the closer and Wilson as the lefty mid-inning guy ares a sign of things to come, I'm not impressed, at all.

If they miss out on Soto, stick a fork in 2025. I'll be excited to watch the kids come up, but they'll still be a .500 team. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Chapman as the closer and Wilson as the lefty mid-inning guy ares a sign of things to come, I'm not impressed, at all.

What about Hendricks, Slaten, Whitlock?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What about Hendricks, Slaten, Whitlock?

Hendriks hasn't had a high powered arm since he was out of baseball after 2022. I'm worried that he doesn't have a 9th inning repertoire anymore. 

Slaten hasn't really been that guy. Whitlock either. Both have been more setup. Slaten could develop into that guy. I don't see Whitlock as that guy going forward. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What about Hendricks, Slaten, Whitlock?

They should be okay, but if the next guys we add are like Chapman and Wilson, I'm bummed.

[moonslav59]

As RP'ers in 2024, here are the OPS Against in...

Leaders in High Leverage (Chapman was at .534)

.564 Winckowski (60 PAs)

.581 Slaten (64 PAs)

.598 Martin (75 PAs)

.628 Jansen (123 PAs)

.790 Bernardino (79)

 

Late & Close (Chapman was at .615)

.489 Slaten (114)

.572 Jansen (167)

.642 Martin (124)

Nobody else was below .739 (Booser) or .745 (Wink) unless you go down to 13 PAs with Guerrero at .237.

 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They should be okay, but if the next guys we add are like Chapman and Wilson, I'm bummed.

1 yr contracts for mid tier free agents on inflated AAVs is the fear for sure.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They should be okay, but if the next guys we add are like Chapman and Wilson, I'm bummed.

They floated Adames and nobody really bit on it. I know Bregman, Fried and Burnes have been considered. 

I wonder if they end up just going with Alex Cobb (doesn't throw a 4 seamer) and Tyler O'Neilll? 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

1 yr contracts for mid tier free agents on inflated AAVs is the fear for sure.

I'm fine with a few one year deals, especially if the guy is 37, but yes, if all we sign are one and dones, it won't be pretty.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They floated Adames and nobody really bit on it. I know Bregman, Fried and Burnes have been considered. 

I wonder if they end up just going with Alex Cobb (doesn't throw a 4 seamer) and Tyler O'Neilll? 

The let down from missing out on Soto will be huge, and it's hard to imagine any scrambling that could take place to make fans happy.

Bregman, Adames or Teoscar?

Burnes and or Fried (Both, if we miss on one of the above 3?) A trade for Lopez, Crochet or Castillo, if we get just one from Burnes and Fried?

Scott, Hoffman, Holmes or Estevez

This is like minimum.

 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The let down from missing out on Soto will be huge, and it's hard to imagine any scrambling that could take place to make fans happy.

Bregman, Adames or Teoscar?

Burnes and or Fried (Both, if we miss on one of the above 3?) A trade for Lopez, Crochet or Castillo, if we get just one from Burnes and Fried?

Scott, Hoffman, Holmes or Estevez

This is like minimum.

 

Bregman on top of Chapman would be a double dose of "let's just piss everyone off, we really are this stupid". 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bregman on top of Chapman would be a double dose of "let's just piss everyone off, we really are this stupid". 

If we lose out on Soto, Adamaes, Teoscar, Burnes and Fried, I'd rather have Bregman than someone else.

That's not to say I want him.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with a few one year deals, especially if the guy is 37, but yes, if all we sign are one and dones, it won't be pretty.

When you offer 1 year deals, you get guys who are willing to accept them and they are usually mid tier (at best) with significant question marks.

If we are going with a smaller financial commitment towards the pen to save $$ for positional players and rotation fine.

If we end up with a series of mediocre players, I can just hear my personal friends now "They did sign money, lets goooo"

All of my friends were excited about James Paxton and I was like give me an f'ing break.

If we sign Eovaldi and nobody else, the casuals will think we're back (we wont be)

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we lose out on Soto, Adamaes, Teoscar, Burnes and Fried, I'd rather have Bregman than someone else.

That's not to say I want him.

I was just talking about the PR factor, of course.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

When you offer 1 year deals, you get guys who are willing to accept them and they are usually mid tier (at best) with significant question marks.

If we are going with a smaller financial commitment towards the pen to save $$ for positional players and rotation fine.

If we end up with a series of mediocre players, I can just hear my personal friends now "They did sign money, lets goooo"

All of my friends were excited about James Paxton and I was like give me an f'ing break.

If we sign Eovaldi and nobody else, the casuals will think we're back (we wont be)

I don't disagree, but we have a few situations that lend themselves to short term solutions:

1. If we sign Soto, the budget will be a major issue, especially longer term.

2. We have Teel at catcher, that looks like the real deal, and already is okay on D. He's not ready, so certainly adding a 1 year catcher makes a lot of sense.

3. We have Anthony, Campbell and Mayer banging on the door, but we are not sure if they are totally ready to be handed a FT job, and with some, where they might play. We might not want to sign a guy to 3+ years that may block one. (I don't see this as a major issue, as none need to be on the 40, this year.)

4. We've had great luck with one year OF'ers: Pillar> Renfroe (we made him into a one and done)> Duvall> O'Neall. 

5. Pitchers on long term deals are almost always trouble, but I'm sick of one and done projects for pitchers.

I'd be okay, if we sign Fried, another top RP'er and one other big name, and the rest be one and dones.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was just talking about the PR factor, of course.

I know.

I'm not excited about Bregman, the player, either. He could be on a decline, already.

I do love the idea of moving Devers to 1B/DH timeshare with Casas. It, along with Story's return would greatly improve our D. Add a defensive catcher, and we could go from bottom 5 on D to top 10-12.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but we have a few situations that lend themselves to short term solutions:

1. If we sign Soto, the budget will be a major issue, especially longer term.

2. We have Teel at catcher, that looks like the real deal, and already is okay on D. He's not ready, so certainly adding a 1 year catcher makes a lot of sense.

3. We have Anthony, Campbell and Mayer banging on the door, but we are not sure if they are totally ready to be handed a FT job, and with some, where they might play. We might not want to sign a guy to 3+ years that may block one. (I don't see this as a major issue, as none need to be on the 40, this year.)

4. We've had great luck with one year OF'ers: Pillar> Renfroe (we made him into a one and done)> Duvall> O'Neall. 

5. Pitchers on long term deals are almost always trouble, but I'm sick of one and done projects for pitchers.

I'd be okay, if we sign Fried, another top RP'er and one other big name, and the rest be one and dones.

If they sign Soto and Fried the heavy lifting is pretty much done, and Brez can just have fun with the rest.

[oldtimer]

On 12/2/2024 at 12:00 PM, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but would this be enough?

Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy?

Soto, Pivetta, Holmes & Jansen?

My answer is no it wouldn't be enough. We need to spend on pitching. Having two expensive players (Devers and Soto) who will be in decline at the same time makes no sense to me. At my age, I probably won't be around to see it happen, but still it looks like a poor strategy. To me it's either/or. If Soto, then trade Devers and probably Yoshida at the same time. Soto is better offensively and defensively. We have some impressive rookies coming along to fill in. Leave some money on the table to fill the great need, which is pitching.

[harmony]

On 12/2/2024 at 7:44 AM, notin said:

I plugged it into BTV and it said “Are you f’n serious?”

In order for that trade to work on, Fangraphs would have to change the value of 1 fWAR from $8mill to about $20mill, but only for Castillo and not Mayer.  Castillo at the current fWAR value has a surplus of -$6.1mill, and it appears to be a decent value.  Mayer has a surplus of $53.5mill.  If Mayer is going to Seattle, it would make more sense to deal him for Woo or Bryce Miller than for Castillo.

A deal of David Hamilton for Castillo plus $15mill makes more sense on their model.  But I am not so sure Seattle is interested. 
 

Why even bother with Castillo? If the Sox actually get involved with one free agent SP, they have a rotation for now.  Is the goal to use Castillo (1.8 bWAR) to bump Crawford (2.0 bWAR) out of the rotation?  Is Castillo an upgrade for any of the 4 current starters?

FWIW as the market for starting pitchers heats up, Baseball Trade Values has upgraded Luis Castillo’s trade value to a positive $5.5 million.

The upward trend may continue.., or not.

Seattle would likely trade Castillo only in the remote event the Mariners sign Roki Sasaki.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

My answer is no it wouldn't be enough. We need to spend on pitching. Having two expensive players (Devers and Soto) who will be in decline at the same time makes no sense to me. At my age, I probably won't be around to see it happen, but still it looks like a poor strategy. To me it's either/or. If Soto, then trade Devers and probably Yoshida at the same time. Soto is better offensively and defensively. We have some impressive rookies coming along to fill in. Leave some money on the table to fill the great need, which is pitching.

I think we need more focus on pitching, too, but our pitching was not awful, this year, and we'd be adding:

Crochet, Giolito, Hendriks, Chapman and maybe full seasons from Whitlock, Slaten and others.

We'll be losing Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Anderson (52 IP), Keller (25) and others.

I think we need to add Fried, then at least one from Scott/Hoffman/Holmes/Esteves or a trade for Crochet or Pablo Lopez.

I'm not sure how much Soto gets in the way of this.

[notin]

7 hours ago, harmony said:

On- the-ground news gathering requires resources. Jeff Passan does not work for free.

information is a commodity with a certain value. The traditional media and their journalists expend resources to produce that commodity.

MLB Trade Rumors pilfers that commodity, sometimes taking consumer traffic away from the original! source. Less traffic means less advertising revenue … unless, of course, the MLBTR links increase the traffic to the original source.

MLBTR has at least always cited their sources and the overwhelming majority of their audience knows how to use Google…

[notin]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW as the market for starting pitchers heats up, Baseball Trade Values has upgraded Luis Castillo’s trade value to a positive $5.5 million.

The upward trend may continue.., or not.

Seattle would likely trade Castillo only in the remote event the Mariners sign Roki Sasaki.

Or if they can get a corner infielder…

[harmony]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Or if they can get a corner infielder…

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 1.2 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's first base fWAR of 0.7.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=36

Indeed the Mariners hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.0 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's third base fWAR of 2.5.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=39

While we're at it, the Mariners hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of 1.6 just as the Red Sox hope to improve on this year's second base fWAR of negative 2.3..

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=37

[harmony]

53 minutes ago, notin said:

MLBTR has at least always cited their sources and the overwhelming majority of their audience knows how to use Google…

This issue is whether the consumer clicks on the MLBTR link so the original source accumulates hits that support higher advertising rates for the original source. ESPN is doing well despite fiscals ups and downs through the years but newspapers, which MLBTR cites frequently, have experienced significant financial struggles over the past three decades.

This is the humble opinion of a former newspaper journalist, journalism professor and attorney who taught 12 semesters of mass media law at the university level.